Open 595: Elemental Mafia (Town Wins!)

Alchemist21 · Post Post #875 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 7:51 am

Ricastle, a

Vanilla Townie

, has died Night 1!

Flubbernugget, a

Mafia Goon

, has died Night 1!

And with that, we begin Day 2!

Alchemist21 · Post Post #876 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 7:59 am

VC 2.00Not Voting: Wanderer, Plotinus, RationalMadman, Bellaphant, lane, BlueBloodedToffee, The Reverend, FA_Q2, Davesaz, Wrong Song, ConManMick, farside, Senator

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-05-16 12:00:00)

farside22 · Post Post #877 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:16 am

I was thinking Flubber was scum and was going to attack him today.
Need to reevaluate a few things.

Bellaphant · Post Post #878 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:19 am

Apparently Flubber looks more town as scum. o.0

We've got 1 mafia and a sk left, yes?

Plotinus · Post Post #879 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:21 am

In post 869, Alchemist21 wrote:
VC 1.15
(9)
Papi Bear
:
Plotinus, RationalMadman, Bellaphant, lane, BlueBloodedToffee,
Ricastle
,
flubbernugget
, The Reverend, FA_Q2

(4)RationalMadman:
Davesaz, Wrong Song, ConManMick, farside

(1)Davesaz:
Papi Bear

(1)The Reverend:
Senator

Not Voting:
Choof
Wanderer-nl

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-05-03 12:00:00)

Yay, down two scum already! So, does anyone else think it is unlikely that both scum were bussing Papi? I don't think that clears anyone on the wagon of being the SK, especially RationalMadman, but I think we should try to hunt the remaining mafia first.

ConManMick had two reads yesterday (flubber and bella) which wasn't very many.
WrongSong only had 13 posts but had more opinions than ConMan
I think I'll be able read Wanderer when she replaces in, though I've only seen her as town. hi Wanderer!
Davesaz only has 3 posts with opinions in them.
Senator and farside both had opinions if I remember right and their ISOs actually have posts in them.

preview-edit: @Bella yes. and on our side we have 3 docs, a backup doc, and a tracker.

davesaz · Post Post #880 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:22 am

Starting to scan Flubbernugget for associations.

I thought this post was interesting, since it didn't identify who was being asked.

In post 164, Flubbernugget wrote:Is there a reason you have such an interest in me

Bellaphant's post was the most recent mention of Flubber.

In post 162, Bellaphant wrote:*tapdances* better?

Would you like me to argue about why obvious jokes are obvious?

I could argue that FA's vote on flub is silly, but I don't necessarily think fa is scum.

Actually, a better idea is to ask @farside: why you so bothered about my 'crap posting' when other people *cough*conman*cough* are arguably making less progress towards sorting the game. Also, what are your thoughts on plot/flub/choof?

@flub, any initial reads?
@papi, your thoughts?
Currently, I'd like to hear more from choof, as he promised a big post.

Also, plot, I'm pretty new.

But Bella had not previously mentioned Flubber. Why ask about having an interest in him when this is the first reference? Why the concern?

davesaz · Post Post #881 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:27 am

In post 736, ConManMick wrote:*sigh*
I have made it abundantly clear, in responses to questions posed by Bella, that I am not entirely sure of papi's alignment. I have also made clear my suspicions of flubbed and my general distaste with his play style. He isn't playing to town wincon. He's suggesting quick lynches and flash lynches, and seems to be intentionally aggravating me to serve his own means. Based entirely on him trying to insult me in such a way as to hammer papi (read: BAITING) I'm starting to think papi could be town. His eagerness to end discussion by getting a lynch in so as to enter the night is incredibly suspicious, but apparently no one gives a damn. Once again: I say baiting as in he is trying to illicit a response from Mr that furthers his own goals.

This suggests that ConMan is the 3rd scum. Flubber and ConMan voted each other, possibly to distance. ConMan's only vote is on the CW.

davesaz · Post Post #882 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:31 am

In post 879, Plotinus wrote:
Davesaz only has 3 posts with opinions in them.

This doesn't really

need

defending, but we're in such a good position that I don't want any worthless leads to be out there.

I wasn't actually caught up -- work avalanched about the same time I replaced in and this is my first opportunity since then.

davesaz · Post Post #883 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:36 am

At a theory level only, the SK is likely to be someone who was scumreading Flubber. I have someone in mind already but it will take some reading to verify.
At a WIFOM level, the SK might be someone who wasn't scumreading Flubber, trying to get us to pursue someone who was.

Yeah, that means anyone could be SK. But I lean toward theory over WIFOM. The SK needs to try to eliminate mafia and that takes precedence over adding WIFOM on purpose. Best to pursue the "someone scumreading Flubber" angle first.

Bellaphant · Post Post #884 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:38 am

I don't even know who he was addressing: was it not the thread at large about FA's vote, and the 'flub is scum' conversation that happened on page 5.

Also, Flub rvs-ed, ConMan, engaged with Ric about CM, was ready to vote plot (but didn't?), focused on far with the con+me v fluff debate, scum-read far, got into a disagreement with FA, randomly called me scum, voted for papi BUT supported a con-lynch tomorrow (or was moving in line with 'town' opinion, was buddying? The Reverend, disagreed with Sen, tried to flash wagon Con, was trying to get con to hammer, suddenly wants to lynch Sen.

Okay, not sure what to make of that, will come back it later.

Plotinus · Post Post #885 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:40 am

In post 882, davesaz wrote:
In post 879, Plotinus wrote:
Davesaz only has 3 posts with opinions in them.

This doesn't really
need
defending, but we're in such a good position that I don't want any worthless leads to be out there.

I wasn't actually caught up -- work avalanched about the same time I replaced in and this is my first opportunity since then.

I know you just replaced in and you're still getting caught up. I've liked your posts so far today, and I think it's great that you've dived into looking for connections with Flubber. I think everyone off Papi's wagon is more suspicious than everyone on the wagon, but the list I gave wasn't in a particular order and I wouldn't currently consider you to be near the scummier end of it. You've already doubled the amount of quality posts in your ISO, so my read on you is sliding out of null and into town.

farside22 · Post Post #886 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 8:53 am

Looking at Flubber, pretty sure con isn't scum with him. He switched votes from papi to con when he could.

Checking papi next

Bellaphant · Post Post #887 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:13 am

Just some of the VCs

Spoiler:

davesaz · Post Post #888 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:19 am

@farside: Are you only checking con vs flubber and con vs papi, or generally looking at flubber and papi?

After a second look, I agree on con not scum with flubber. The wagon dynamic throughout the day suggests they are very unlikely to be partners. That review also reduced the SK chance of the person I initially noticed as being on flubber.

I'm nowhere near finished on reviewing either flipped scum btw. In this mode I tend to point things out as I see them.

Pedit: the VCA from before Papi popped up is also interesting. It looks to me like several wagons were probed to see if town would go for them.

Bellaphant · Post Post #889 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:32 am

@Dave, the only wagons that even kinda started were flub, lane, conman and me.

Then, after the papi wagon, rational and con.

If you are correct about scum 'probing' wagons then that might be interesting, but there were also no HUGE wagons: I think the most was 4/5 votes.

Plotinus · Post Post #890 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:35 am

Summary of why people who weren't voting Papi didn't vote Papi (with links where applicable):

ConManMick was off Papi wagon because uncomfortable lynching claimed doc, voted RMM instead, gave benefit of the doubt for Papi not reading and liked Papi's cursory scumhunting, was scumreading flubber for trying to bait him into joining the Papi wagon (712, 713,717, 736)

davesaz was off Papi wagon because not replaced in and not fully caught up, and didn't feel BBT's case was strong enough (573, 586)

farside22 voted Papi in 472, then voted RMM in 749, didn't really explain the switch. why RMM is obvious but why not Papi isn't.

Senator scumread Papi in 445 but then found TheReverend's play to be like scum hammering a mislynch (793 but he spent a lot of posts on TheReverend) and grew less convinced in the Papi wagon over time

Wanderer-nl was off Papi wagon because inactive but had slight negative early opinion of Papi (319)

WrongSong was off the Papi wagon because hesitant about voting a claimed doc, voted RMM instead. (647, 651)

and a special mention for the scummiest person on the wagon:

RationalMadman reason for joining Papi wagon: "yay for bandwagons" 488.

Plotinus · Post Post #891 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:37 am

*davesaz was JUST replaced in, not "not replace" in

EBWOP

Wanderer-nl · Post Post #892 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:45 am

Wow hi, 35 pages! I don't even know where to begin.
I read through it during the night and made some notes about things that stood out to me. That turned out to be a lot more than I expected, and while I'm trying to type one sentence, three others are dancing in my head distracting me from what I'm actually trying to write. I don't have any real strong reads right now. BBT is town to me for getting scum lynched, dave looks town to me because even though he didn't want to vote PB, his reasoning for it looked town-motivated. Flubber felt null-scum to me because of how he posted and I would have made a case against him had he not died. Reverend, FaQ2 (and Ricastle) all feel town to me, Bella started out feeling scummy but that later shifted more towny. I think conman is town although I am a little concerned about 712 after flubber flipped scum.. I'm null on farside, wrongsong and Plotinus. Senator feels scummy but he seems to always have that (I know, I knew before I chose to replace in even) Null-scum on lane. RMM, well, I think that if he is scum he is SK because he so carelessly joined that bandwagon on mafia.

I'm happy to elaborate, right now I'm at a loss at what to prioritize. Need to reread a couple of iso's which I'll do later.

PEdit: lots of new posts there.

farside22 · Post Post #893 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:52 am

Bt is more likely town based on papi push, I think RMM may be scum.
Pedit: Dave I was reading Flubber ISO alone. If you read how Flubber moved his vote to conman it reads as trying to save scum buddy papi to me.
Flubber barely says much to rmm or pushes there. Same with papi.

farside22 · Post Post #894 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 9:55 am

Wrong song is another one is look at as scum as well.

Dave, check out the lack of interaction between Flubber and papi. Do you think they didn't interact with the 3rd scum buddy?

FA_Q2 · Post Post #895 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 10:05 am

In post 883, davesaz wrote:At a theory level only, the SK is likely to be someone who was scumreading Flubber. I have someone in mind already but it will take some reading to verify.
At a WIFOM level, the SK might be someone who wasn't scumreading Flubber, trying to get us to pursue someone who was.

Yeah, that means anyone could be SK. But I lean toward theory over WIFOM. The SK needs to try to eliminate mafia and that takes precedence over adding WIFOM on purpose. Best to pursue the "someone scumreading Flubber" angle first.

I disagree with the logic on the SK mostly because you are essentially stating that you think I am the SK (I am the only one that was repeatedly trying to get flubber lynched and presented my case over and over) and I can assure you that I am not the SK.

I also do not follow how your logic would separate an SK from a townie - both want to kill scum and therefore they would damn near identical in pursuing that goal. It is the one reason that SK's can be hard to find, they have a very town mindset in scum hunting.

FA_Q2 · Post Post #896 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 10:12 am

In post 878, Bellaphant wrote:Apparently Flubber looks more town as scum. o.0

We've got 1 mafia and a sk left, yes?

Really because I think that flubber was BLATANTLY scum. Much more than even papi IMHO.

Yes, one mafia and one sk.

Senator · Post Post #897 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 10:13 am

Final papers and Psyclub nonsense is due this week, so I'm going to relatively out of all my games until at least Wensday, when the bulk of my stuff happens. Yay for scholarships.

Flubber being scum is interesting. I think that means that the SK knows how to read people well, not that they took any stance on Flubber. I still think Reverend is scummy, and knowing that Papi and Flubber flipped scum isn't a dealbreaker.

FA_Q2, I don't think they implied that you were the SK based off of the Flubber kill. But are you disagreeing only because you think it implicates you, or is the logic actually flawed?

Bellaphant · Post Post #898 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 10:25 am

@wanderer, can you explain a bit more your reads on: lane, sen, the reverend and RMM? I don't think RMM is SK right now.

farside22 · Post Post #899 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2015 10:26 am

Has anyone ever played a sk role before? I always think sk would kill either someone that suspected them or was a town read to most people.
I recall aero said he killed me because I suspected him. Not sure if that is normal sk thinking.