Open 595: Elemental Mafia (Town Wins!)

[farside22]

Oooo a wifom idea is to say everyone will "track" the player above them on the list.
I think senator, rev, myself and maybe bbt will know why this would help and what may happen doing that.

Doc's protect who they find the most town.
Out guessing the element is the biggest issue.

Damn is having only 2 confirmed out weigh everything.

Give me a minute to crunch numbers.

[farside22]

13 players left.

5 pr's outed
Leaves 8 players to check.

Clearing 2 players gives 6 to go through, maybe could get 1 more clear bring total to 5.

[Bellaphant]

Or, maybe a terrible idea, but because of the elements could people say.. 'if I was the Dr I used element x on y'

[Senator]

You are misunderstanding the point of it. We're more interested in what the dead people say.

[ConManMick]

We still have all three DOCs and a backup, but I'd be tempted to hold them back for the time being. Maybe tomorrow, or if we get another scum player.

[Wanderer-nl]

I'm going to look into the RMM bandwagon. With this, I'm going on the assumption that RMM is town and was the easy option for scum to take to try to derail the PB-wagon. I'm not sure this really happened, that's why I'm looking into this.
4 people were on this wagon: dave, wrongsong, conman and farside. I already have slight townreads on dave and conman, so I will focus my attention on wrongsong and farside first.

wrongsong:

I found some inconsistencies or things that pinged me in his 201
conman's 12 bothers him a lot, so the earlier unvote looks a little weird to me.
Is not bothered by Choof's joke. (I think 12 and 50 were both obvious jokes)
The next part feels contradicting with not being bothered by the joke.
His response to lane about responding to ric, he's actually doing the same thing on conman..
215 he is very pushy on conman's 12
454 isn't alarmed by PB's defensiveness wrt lurking, which stands out to me because he's been so pushy over 12.
647 I just can't follow this
651 thinks PB is town, no mention of the docclaim itself and his thoughts on it.
After this I think it looks pretty clear wrongsong is very much trying to avoid lynching PB and gets inactive after that post.
Also active lurking: 167, 271, 901, 914 which on itself doesn't mean much but with the other points makes the scumscale heavier.

farside:

She votes in 38 on a gutfeeling. Then in 46 she explains how she got to the gutfeeling. At first I thought it was weird and felt like looking for a good reason to explain your gut, but on second read I can follow 46 a little better. I do think it would have looked more genuine had farside explained her gutread in her original vote-post.
101 reads a little third-party-ish to me actually. But there's a good chance that is because flubber was SKilled last night.. Furthermore, she calls bella still scum for being non-responsive. In 290 she gets into that still, right after saying Plotinus' last post rang true to her. That was 285 wherein Plotinus explained she doesn't react to a single vote. So how is Bella suspicious for non-reaction and Plotinus not? There seems to be a discrepancy in reading players on this point.
129 bad reading or reaching? (farside completely missed the reasons faq2 wrote for voting flubber)
253 farside is concerned of flubber because he's active, in 347 farside is saying the opposite; flubber not being his scumhunting self. (maybe I misinterpreted 253, please clarify)
274 The last part bothered me. To me, an exxaggeration of scummy behaviour (like lane made on bella, and Ric responded to) is scummy. There was also no real indication yet that farside had shifted to a townread on bella yet, so defending bella's statement makes it a little more weird. But now knowing there is only one mafia left, this can in no way be defending a scumbuddy, so I'll see this is null for now.
470 and 472 seem to me farside is trying to avoid joining the bandwagon but then sees she cannot ignore the case. Doesn't address PB in any way though.
555 farside unvotes PB after his doc-claim.
578 So conman is more lurking than PB?
599 keeps push on conman
601 farside, why did you allow PB to lurk through the game?
644 just feels weird to me and I don't really know how to explain it.. I guess it's mostly because of the linebreaks. Haven't seen her done that before like that.
749 Out of nowhere jumps to a vote on RMM. More viable bandwagon or genuine town confusion?
It bothers me farside never addressed PB. I also don't like the tunnelling on conman. The flubber-read feels less than genuine to me, but at least she has been interacting with flubber at times.

920: farside, is your gutread based on the lack of interaction you were talking about? And how did you decide between RMM and wrongsong?

Not sure what to think about the claiming-ideas, I have no experience with mass-claiming and anything related. At first glance I'd say it's rolefishing, but contemplating the how of it makes it look more town to me.

Conclusion: I'd be comfortable voting for wrongsong at this point over farside. I have concerns about farside but the scumfeel is stronger with wrongsong.

[ConManMick]

What does tunnelling mean in this context?

[TheReverend]

I think we want to get either the scum or SK before we consider outing the docs. Until then, I can't think of a way for the docs to synchronise without claiming.

Tracker's power in this setup lies in an uncountered claim, and in claiming last to catch liars. So tracker should just play to his own strategy imo. If tracker is forced to claim earlier than optimal, he most certainly should not say what his actions were straight away; we should instead consider massclaiming before tracker tells us more, in the hope that scum claims vanilla and gets caught, or feels compelled to claim doc and hides in a smaller pool.

Farside's idea has its merits, but for me I'd just anticipate a shitstorm of wifom tomorrow when we analyse tonight's kills. It possibly creates more problems than it solves.

[farside22]

I think waiting a day would be best.

@wander: I've been a bit distracted but my biggest issue when I play is tunneling a player I believe is scum. I miss things along the way when I can't let go of something. It wouldn't surprise me if conman was the SK this game to be frank but I'm going to focus on finding the last scum. The reason I picked wrong over rmm is there was latterly no comment directed to wrong from either member of the scum team and I noticed neither directly tales to one another.
It's a gut call because there is probably one or two other players neither communicated with but I only am really scum reading rmm and wrong.

[Wanderer-nl]

You are misunderstanding the point of it. We're more interested in what the dead people say.

That makes sense actually.

@conman: I may not have used the term tunnelling by the proper definition. In that post it meant that farside kept you as a scumread for all of day 1 while other reads were able to change.

farside's response in 933 is okay for me because I can relate.

Now something else popped in my head. I thought BBT was about surely town for getting papi lynched, but that doesn't necessarily have to be town motive. Could also be SK. I have no idea whether he is, but I don't want to disregard anyone lynching scum from being SK. Just want this out there, I'm on board with finding mafia today and leaving the SK-discussion for later.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Catching up soon.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Senator's questions remind me of the one's I asked in my first newbies so he can be town for now

Couple of quick mentions before I start catching up.

This was Flubber's reasoning for his town-read on Senator. This read is never reevaluated and becomes extremely stale. Even when it is revealed that Senator is not in fact a newbie, but is an alt of Pisskop, still no reevaluation.

This feels like a weak reasoned town read for a scum buddy.

Also, Flubber pushed pretty hard for a ConMan lynch so I think it's safe to say that ConMan is town.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Scum is very likely in Dave/Wrong/Senator/Wanderer.

My money is on Senator and it's extremely unlikely I'll be voting anywhere else toDay.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Alright, I'm fairly confident that Farside, Reverend, ConMan and Lane are town. I don't think I will vote for any of these people, ever.

I think it's likely that Bella, Plot, and FA are also town. Will not be voting for these people toDay.

That leaves Wanderer, RMM, Wrong, Senator and Dave.

I think Dave is town. I've only skimmed his posts but I liked what I read. Papi also voted for Dave; this brought a couple of things to my attention. Firstly, I doubt that Papi would vote for his scum buddy when he is danger of being lynched. Secondly, why didn't Papi join the RMM wagon? That was a viable counter wagon that he could have joined and tried to push to stop his own lynch. The question is, were town really doing so well that we had two major wagons on scum? It might be worth lynching RMM toDay to sort this out.

There have been posts from Wrong that I'm not particularly fond of but I mostly just forget he is in the game. Could very well be scum. I also believe he spent most of the day voting Lane, who I believe to be town, until he jumped onto the RMM wagon. Was he helping to push the CW to Papi?

I think the most informative lynch for toDay is RMM or Wrong and I feel both have a good chance of hitting scum (obviously I'm wrong on one of them, unless one is SK).

Thoughts?

[farside22]

I had a town read on senator but I'll check into what you said bbt.
I also had a rev SK theory in my head.

[farside22]

I'm voting wrong for the reasons you stated bbt.

[Bellaphant]

Any reason in particular you asked me for those reads?

Good question They are people I am having particular difficulty in sorting/would like a fresh perspective on. It might not even be alignment indicative, just a play style issue, but thanks.

VOTE: Senator

He really tried his best to stop that Papi wagon going through.

I need to read what's happened since the Day started but it's late and I'm tired so probably tomorrow.

Would scum be this obvious, though? I'd also look at the VCA and see if any of the people on and off the wagon are suspect.

If I'm Thirdparty I would be more active.

This is really weak, though. Esp after the PL stuff

So I was very wrong about papi. That was a learning experience. Down to a goon and the SK, I like those odds. Going to go over wagons that formed yesterday, see if anything sticks out.

Ugh, Con might be town o.0

Get the fuck in.

The ricastle kill is also fantastic because I had him as scum after reading through. I assume scum are SK hunting here.

I'm with the family until tomorrow so my activity will be minimal until I'm back home.

Why is the ric kill fantastic? Sorry, I'm not parsing this.


@BBT, I mostly like your reads-list, but am confused about a couple. I might need to re-read a few people.

I had a town read on senator but I'll check into what you said bbt.
I also had a rev SK theory in my head.

Farside, can you explain these two reads a little? 'had' or 'have'? If the former, what changed?

[Senator]

This was Flubber's reasoning for his town-read on Senator. This read is never reevaluated and becomes extremely stale.

Could that vote be any more useless

Hammer your scumbuddy like a man

The more senator talks the more I'm willing to lynch him

Umm no?

[ConManMick]

I don't know, I'm feeling useless. I'd be happy to maintain yesterday's vote on Rational. Other than flub, he was the only real scum read I had.

[Senator]

Buts that's not even the point. The point is that Flub was clearly on Papi and cruising for towncred. You're going to vote me under the guise of 'refused to vote Papi' when I would hope it is clear that 9/10 scum would have threw him under.

He barely even gave you a peepee smack and it somehow managed to obliterate your ego...

You can say he was maybe trying to soft bus a buddy, but more likely he voted for his actual buddies at some point.

I'd start there.

Pedit: @BBT

[Senator]

Okay. Conman is the only one other than Papi he voted. His next biggest interaction piece is Farside.

Conman is more than likely town for being the counter Flubber hopped off for.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I was thinking Flubber was scum and was going to attack him today.
Need to reevaluate a few things.

Farside might be scum.

I didn't realise she was off the Papi wagon and I've just noticed something in her ISO.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Whoops, that quote shouldn't be there.

[farside22]

@bela: day to day lynches and talk can change my views on players.
Senator was more based on his post and rev sk was more a paranoid feeling then absolute

@ bbt: if you check my ISO further you see I was getting suspicious of Flubber.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

101 - Flubber is a scum read. No vote though, instead she focuses on Bella. Classic scum move, FOS buddy (Flubber) but vote !town! (Bella)

253 - Her read on Flubber is 'paranoid'. Not scummy though, just someone to be watched.

330 - Can you explain this comment, Farside. Why did you want me to be town?

877 - If you thought Flubber was scum and you were going to attack him, why do you need to reevaluate? You were right, so there should be no need for reevaluation. This makes no sense.

As well as this, besides her brief stint on the Papi wagon (which after she got off she made sure she avoided like the plague; switching between Con and RMM) all of her scum reads throughout the game seem to be on people who I feel good are town. She also fits the bill for scum pushing CW to Papi.