Paradise Lost - [Game Over]

[lalaladucks]

Also I have no idea how you could even suggest this is anywhere close to my scumgame. I wouldn't have bussed, or even pursued interaction with, RC as scum and you know this too.

Oh im pretty sure you would have, RC had scumslipped, there was no saving him and he was going down anyway. And even in the best case scenario i could just go with WIFOM.

If I had known RC had made a definite scumslip I wouldn't have had to let myself get yelled at and criticized for agreeing with him that Angel should claim, I would have already known and just been able to lurk through the day with a bus vote.

Seems like quite a good explanation, but I think it was pre-planned and if so, that was pretty genius.

[lalaladucks]

I wanted 2222. Damn it.

Wooooo, raining on people's parades since February~~~~

[grapes]

Normally when trying to root out scum, you need to mix wagons with equal weight, you'll find that one tiny scum trying to hide voting in a safe spot, which is what grapes was doing here, notice that if i remove all the "4 voter wagons" and all the "conf towns" grapes is the only unknown here.

What?

I was voting you because I thought you were scum. Later on I assess the leading wagons and then decided to ride on lufan. That's not hiding, that's compromising on a lynch.

Actually that VC could heavily point towards one of those three leading wagons being on scum which would make for one of the others having a higher concentration of scum. In other words a counterwagon...

And this is exactly why I was scumreading you most of the game. You're using evidence to fit your reads, not shape them.

[Cho]

Should probably re-explain that - I still really think lalala is scum, but I really really don't want to fall into my confidence trap again after Kats and massive and how those went. Elbirn is my secondary scumread post-reconsider which probably means it's more accurate but then I don't want to revamp in the wrong direction

...and then there's lufan, who is... blah. I was pretty sure town but then he didn't die after pretty much everyone agreed RC was trying to mislynch him and I didn't die either most likely because my reads were bad somewhere and I think scum just expected me to vote lalala today - actually pretty sure that's the bad read. Or maybe that and Elbirn?? I can see scum trying to save me for a 3 sin kill with how admittedly reckless I've been being. (I actually thought up until now that the sin mechanic was pretty useless bc going into Night 4 it was still only at 2 but then the age old trap of exponentials and etc etc)

god please stop me from talking I don't even know what's up anymore. Note to self to actually read missed pages later.

Actually thinking about it I probably shouldn't be voting at all today. Opportunity cost too high. or whatever the right term is.

stop stop STOP okay should really start that game now bbl

[grapes]

Also wanted to change vote because Cho's vote gave me scumvibes.

And cho voting elbirn = grapes scum in moonlogic correct?

[Cho]

Also I have no idea how you could even suggest this is anywhere close to my scumgame. I wouldn't have bussed, or even pursued interaction with, RC as scum and you know this too.

Oh im pretty sure you would have, RC had scumslipped, there was no saving him and he was going down anyway. And even in the best case scenario i could just go with WIFOM.

If I had known RC had made a definite scumslip I wouldn't have had to let myself get yelled at and criticized for agreeing with him that Angel should claim, I would have already known and just been able to lurk through the day with a bus vote.

Seems like quite a good explanation, but I think it was pre-planned and if so, that was pretty genius.

RC was a general townread so we plotted together to get him to subtly scumslip in a certain way knowing that town wouldn't know who killed who and vote him for just a weird assumption but know that town would later on probably come to the conclusion that scum would have bussed once the scumslip was evident.

or in other words RC and I planned to, or just did, get him lynched in some highly elaborate and convoluted scum theater fashion, after having him attack me the previous day as if he was trying to gauge my lynchability and me having a scumread then awkward unsure townread on him at the end of Day 2 that would have looked absolutely shitty when one of us flipped.

makes sense

[Cho]

This is just so... dumb.

Like I'm kind of flattered you're trying to give my scumgame credit because almost nobody ever does but if you're town and still think that, that's insane and you'd practically have to be a Titus alt, and if you're scum you're... probably still some kind of Titus alt actually considering HU2.

I'm getting nowhere. Second note to self to just start the game and just read and come back later.

Also just realized I never decided whether to commit to nice!Cho or bitch!Cho. Dang it.

[Glass]

Actually that VC could heavily point towards one of those three leading wagons being on scum which would make for one of the others having a higher concentration of scum. In other words a counterwagon...

This idea would only work if lufan was scum, otherwise you would have to argue that scum were trying a counterwagon on lufan when there was a juicy wagon with at least 3 townies on AA.

@Elbirn, who do you think is scum?

[grapes]

For the record, my townreads:
SH
ABR
Elbirn

I think that after RC slipped, he would have told his buddies to bus him.

So you're arguing that RC told his buddies to bus him. Which I agree with to some extent. But you're townreading two of the people who were reluctant to get on the wagon. I think town would be way more reactionary to it to be honest.

I actually kinda agree with you on ABR. I dunno why. But what do you make elbirns hammer?

Town and scum BOTH are careful of voting people late. The only exception is when scum is bussing a buddy. They have no need to care about the vote count because they know that the person is flipping scum.

Like hammering is such a touchy thing to do that it's almost scary and the only time I can see someone not giving enough of a fuck to count the votes, especially voting directly after somebody else, is if they've got some insight that the flip wont make them look bad.

I'm not feeling great about Cho right now, she is either scum or completely reckless.

Could you elaborate on this?

It's kinda wifomy and depends on the type of player they are. But I'd argue generally that being absent minded about sin count and voting what they feel would lend itself more town than someone crunching numbers. I mean that's hardly a justifiable thing to use to call someone town or scum but so far today you've used it to town read lala - but are using it here to scum read cho.

So it's kinda like, make up your mind ya know?

This idea would only work if lufan was scum, otherwise you would have to argue that scum were trying a counterwagon on lufan when there was a juicy wagon with at least 3 townies on AA.

Why would I need to argue that? Lufan is probably town. The AA wagon was driving itself. So scum could of just said whatever and let it go because AA does a good enough job burying herself that scum wouldn't even care OR they could WK and keep an anti town player alive or if the lynch goes through even better.

There's also the possibility that all the wagons were on town but like I said on day 1 the posting activity makes that kinda tough to believe.

[Albert B. Rampage]

UNVOTE:

[lalaladucks]

Intent to Vote

Guys, can you all please quote this post and say who you intend to vote for instead of just quick voting which could result in catastrophe?

[lalaladucks]

I love how no one listens to me.

[Sakura Hana]

1. Theres a blackout so i most likely wont post again until power is back.
2. massive just mentioned that farside was the one that bused rc on d3 more details when i get power back

[Glass]

Why would I need to argue that? Lufan is probably town. The AA wagon was driving itself. So scum could of just said whatever and let it go because AA does a good enough job burying herself that scum wouldn't even care OR they could WK and keep an anti town player alive or if the lynch goes through even better.

idk what WK means, but your initial proposition was that the three equally spread wagons on day 1 could point to there being a high concentration of scum on one of them to form a counter wagon. If lufan is town, we have a large concentration of townies voting AA, so why would scum go through the effort of counterwagoning lufan when it would be easier to push for an AA lynch?

Could you elaborate on this?

It's kinda wifomy and depends on the type of player they are. But I'd argue generally that being absent minded about sin count and voting what they feel would lend itself more town than someone crunching numbers. I mean that's hardly a justifiable thing to use to call someone town or scum but so far today you've used it to town read lala - but are using it here to scum read cho.

So it's kinda like, make up your mind ya know?

It's a completely different scenario. lala hasn't come out and put town at risk of a scum quickhammer, lala was cautious about putting her vote down because she thought that it would lead scum to have an easier time getting sin, whereas Cho just threw her vote down disregarding any possibility of the sin blowing up in our faces.

But what do you make elbirns hammer?

Town and scum BOTH are careful of voting people late. The only exception is when scum is bussing a buddy. They have no need to care about the vote count because they know that the person is flipping scum.

Like hammering is such a touchy thing to do that it's almost scary and the only time I can see someone not giving enough of a fuck to count the votes, especially voting directly after somebody else, is if they've got some insight that the flip wont make them look bad.

I think that Elbirn's hammer is null. If he is town and actually believes his nonsense reason for unvoting RC, then it makes sense for him to revote RC after SH claimed.

2. massive just mentioned that farside was the one that bused rc on d3 more details when i get power back

I'm glad SOMEONE agrees with me.

[lalaladucks]

WK = White Knight
Someone who rushes to help/defend another poster for whatever reason

[Glass]

@grapes
I don't see how you can think that scum would be saying both:
"The AA wagon is pushing itself, no need to help it along" and
"Oh jeez, we need to form a counterwagon!"

[Sakura Hana]

Ok i got power back so i'll elaborate on massive's read:

2. massive just mentioned that farside was the one that bused rc on d3 more details when i get power back

Anyway 1668 was apparently the first person to push the slip as real. Then the same person continues here: 1675
1687 Shows Elbirn also pushing it as a hard slip. 1690 shows Elbirn trying to cover up, while still pushing it as hard truth
1696 farside agreeing with Elbirn's hard defense of the scumslip.

In short, both farside and Elbirn pushed the case as if they already knew it was a slip.

[grapes]

I think that Elbirn's hammer is null. If he is town and actually believes his nonsense reason for unvoting RC, then it makes sense for him to revote RC after SH claimed.

Yea but I'm talking about the fact that it came without intent.

idk what WK means, but your initial proposition was that the three equally spread wagons on day 1 could point to there being a high concentration of scum on one of them to form a counter wagon. If lufan is town, we have a large concentration of townies voting AA, so why would scum go through the effort of counterwagoning lufan when it would be easier to push for an AA lynch?

Why does scum do anything? Like it's tough for me to put myself back in the moment. But the one thing I remember is that there was kinda this sense of urgency going on around the time those particular wagons were around. I don't think it's a coincidence that certain ones died out and certain ones kept getting pushed if you catch my drift.

There are so many other factors that you've got to take into consideration as well. Like would hopping on AA be easier? Maybe. Depends on what peoples reads were, gotta stay consistent right? There's also the fact that by voting AA you're likely to OMGUSed to mars and back so that could be another reason AA was less practical for scum push. Trying to avoid drama. Then there's the fact that lufan is the scummiest low hanging fruit of the crop and just about anyone could hop on him unabashed and it would look justified.

I dunno. It is pretty dumb debating over what was going on in a frozen moment in time on day fucking 1 no less. And to do it properly I'd have to go back and read day 1, look at how all the votes fell, reasons behind them and see what was up. In other words how you're SUPPOSED to do VCA. Not this look at cold vote counts and assume 1 scum per wagon bs. I'm also probably not going to do that because prehistoric events are boring as all get out anyway. However you coming at this from the perspective that scum would just hop on AA if there really was a wagon on scum is a bit naive. Like there were a plethora of options for scum to do day 1. Defaulting to the path of least resistance is hardly practical and imo the fishiest thing you can do. I'm not saying that it makes Elbirn scum JUST BY THAT VC, but it doesn't necessarily make him town by any stretch either.

It's a completely different scenario. lala hasn't come out and put town at risk of a scum quickhammer, lala was cautious about putting her vote down because she thought that it would lead scum to have an easier time getting sin, whereas Cho just threw her vote down disregarding any possibility of the sin blowing up in our faces.

Fair point.

[Sakura Hana]

how you're SUPPOSED to do VCA. Not this look at cold vote counts and assume 1 scum per wagon bs

The vote counts tell the whole story of D1, that's why you look at them and their movements, i was just thinking about that one VC, and then i decided to do wagon analysis on the others, but i still find it impossible for the whole katsuki wagon to be composed entirely out of townies.

[lalaladucks]

VoteCount 2.5

ArcAngel9

[1] -

Katsuki

farside22 [2] - Glass, grapes
lalaladucks [1] -

massive

Katsuki

[8] - Cho,

Sakura Hana

, Elbirn,

ArcAngel9

, lufan131,

Equinox

, lalaladucks, Albert B. Rampage [LYNCH]

massive

[1] - farside22
Cho [1] -

RedCoyote

Not Voting [1]

-

SXTLHGaiden

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch

.

Deadline is May 4, 2015, at 10 AM PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2015-05-04 12:00:00)

I refuse to believe this wagon is made solely of town.
Cho, Elbirn, lufan, lalaladucks and ABR can't all be town. and i'm townreading the last 3 so...

Yeah, it makes sense that at least one demon assisted in Kats' lynch.
You know, I'm becoming more suspicious of Albert lately.

[lalaladucks]

We have an extremely high chance of determining the scumteam if we go back carefully through the votes, but idk if I can't be bothered really. Or if I have the time. Depends how much we wanna win.

[lalaladucks]

ehhhhhhhh
I mean if I can be bothered.
Probably I can't be bothered.

[Sakura Hana]

Well I know i've been lazy on the actual analysis, but im pretty sure that of those 5, not all 5 are town...
I just dont know who @_@
Im pretty sure massive's points on both farside and Elbirn are pretty good so i wanna say Elbirn.
It's common sense for scum to split half on wagon, half off wagon, which is why i was thinking 2 scum, but there's also the chance of 1. There's a really really REALLY low chance of 0 tho.

Also i'd stake that RC wasnt the only scum on the lufan wagon.

[grapes]

The vote counts tell the whole story of D1, that's why you look at them and their movements, i was just thinking about that one VC, and then i decided to do wagon analysis on the others, but i still find it impossible for the whole katsuki wagon to be composed entirely out of townies.

And that's an okay assumption to make

for that particular wagon

. But just saying that scum must have been on a town mislynch is only half the battle I'm afraid.

And also like I said earlier once you've settled on a lynch as an IC it's really easy for scum or at least most to just stay off the wagon because you've already essentially ended the day because your mind is made up. AND the fact that scum have more incentive to stay of mislynches because they want a lot of sin on townies and stuff.

That's why the massive wagon is iffy to speculate but I'd guess

maybe

one scum if any given all that. The lynches previous to your claim also fall victim to this, although to a much lesser degree. Because then the voting pattern is much less skewed because there's no confirmed town to sheep or anything with no questions asked.

You're doing a much better job today by not settling so far so the day is less wasted, though. Which is sweet. Also I wasn't trying to bad mouth

all

your vca just #2195 in particular. Because it doesn't take anything else into account but the votes. Ya know what I mean?

[Sakura Hana]

just #2195 in particular. Because it doesn't take anything else into account but the votes. Ya know what I mean?

I was just following mastin's VCA guide