Battlestar Galactica Mafia - Game over!

[Porochaz]

Saw this, keeping this in mind as I read, I am sure this will make sense after. But seeing that ooba was screened last night, that result must have been shown?

Yes. It has been revealed.

[sangres]

I'm torn between being snarky and being smug. So, I'm going to be both.

[RIP]

Poor looks to me like u want a very likely villa to be screen instead of angry.
What are ur thoughts on angry and why u keep saying is a waste to target him with screen?

Get used to my posting style, it will get u wins if u are in my team.
If u are not then hate all u want and get wrecked by me

[Porochaz]

I'm not laying into yet despite really wanting to.

I've seen the arrogant, "I will won you games schtick" too many times. Usually these are the worst players, because they are insufferable, cocky and (this will be the one you argue) wrong. My guess, you got lucky one game, if that. What's more my guess is you are unlikely to take advice and when all goes wrong its not your fault.

Besides I can get wins, it usually involves a collaborative effort.

Moving on, yes, I very much do want a valilia screen over ap. AP has entered this game in an extremely town like manner, has been sensible and cohesive with his thoughts and whilst I do want to hear more from him I have no reason to suspect him. This isn't defending him, I'm not even sure why I would Ned to defend him.

My thoughts on not screening him are extremely obvious. (As in, look at the conversation that just happened!)

[Porochaz]

This was a tablet post so there are words missing. Sorry, if something isnt clear say and I'll tidy it up

[curiouskarmadog]

thought of this while in the bathroom, best thinking is done there.


I havent completed reading the last couple pages (so this answer might get revealed) but why are people voting for a Val screen? Why would ooba(scum) and Val(scum) both target Tammy?

[Toogeloo]

I havent completed reading the last couple pages (so this answer might get revealed) but why are people voting for a Val screen? Why would ooba(scum) and Val(scum) both target Tammy?

It's been stated repeatedly (once you catch up completely, you'll see), that people want VR screened because they think he is the Sleeper based solely on the ooba communique about requesting the Sleeper not use their protective one-shot abilities.

It's likely a red herring and an attempt to indirectly direct our screen. No scum comes out with an information laden post like that hoping to slip something under our noses unless it's a rope a dope tactic to get us to look where they want us to and not where we need to. The paranoia in me almost wonders if ooba and prozac are trying to work this out together.

Unscreen Andrius

I knew I wanted to trust you Andy, thanks for not disappointing.

Short list of other names I am willing to Screen:
AP
Prozac
Nero
NAA

Screen AP

...for now.

[NotAnAxehole]

So, I'm trying to piece things together a bit here... And I had a little bit of time, so let's get into this. I want to preface this by saying, I don't want to over-analyse vote count, with that said, it might seem like I am.

I want everyone's opinions and criticism on this post.

VOTE COUNT 1.06

BROseidon (1) - ooba

VOTE COUNT 1.07
SCREEN COUNT

BROseidon (4) - ValiliaRei, Bookitty, Porochaz, Brian Skies

VOTE COUNT 1.11
SCREEN COUNT

ooba (6) - Nikanor, Nero Cain, NotAnAxehole, Andrius, Brian Skies, Toogeloo


VOTE COUNT 1.15 - DAY END

BROseidon (9-LYNCHED) -

ooba

,

Brian Skies

,

sangres

,

Toogeloo

,

ValiliaRei

,

Tammy

,

Bookitty

,

SnowStorm

,

Lady Lambdadelta

sangres (3) -

Andrius

,

BROseidon

,

curiouskarmadog

Toogeloo (1) -

RIP

ValiliaRei(1) -

NotAnAxehole

SnowStorm (1) -

Nikanor

Not voting (2) -

Nero Cain

,

Porochaz

SCREEN COUNT (CONFIRMED)

ooba (9-SCREENED) -

Nikanor

,

Nero Cain

,

NotAnAxehole

,

Andrius

,

Brian Skies

,

Toogeloo

,

ooba

,

sangres

,

RIP

NotAnAxehole (3) -

curiouskarmadog

,

BROseidon

Andrius (3) -

Tammy

,

SnowStorm

,

Porochaz

Lady Lambdadelta (1) -

Lady Lambdadelta

BROseidon (1) -

ValiliaRei

sangres (1) -

Bookitty

Not voting (0) - none

A lynch has been reached.

Green:

Confirmed Town

Teal:

My Town Reads

Yellow:

Earlier Scum Reads, Now Town

Pink:

My Scum Reads

Red:

Confirmed Scum

Before I get into any detailed analysis of each player, I want to point out the obvious... Scum did not want to have scum screened.

BRO originally had a vote wagon, then a screen wagon -> The only person who didn't leave the vote wagon was Ooba

On 1.10, there is 0 votes for an Ooba Screen, on 1.11 there are 6 votes. Given how suddenly this wagon took off, I am assuming that all of the members of that original wagon are town. I really doubt that scum would have been so quickly on board with that wagon. Ooba later joined - but he had no choice but to hope the wagon shifted on it's own given he already volunteered.

I also think it's extremely odd that every town who voted to screen themselves took it off when a better wagon presented itself, LLD had her screen vote on herself until the very end.

When BRO was at L-1, a lot of the people who I believe are town were very hesitant about a lynch... LLD just walked in and took it with no hesitation. It seems like she knew exactly what she was doing while most others really didn't.

Spoiler: Toogeloo

Baltar, Town

Spoiler: Brian Skies

Tracker, Town

Spoiler: RIP

I think RIP is an obnoxious vanilla townie who is consistently fake claiming that he may have a power role just for the sake of attracting night kill attention away from actual power roles. And I wouldn't be saying this if I thought there was any chance of him getting night killed... His posting is far too awful for scum to even consider it.

I wouldn't say that I have a VERY strong town read on him, but it's enough that I wouldn't consider lynching just yet. When it comes down to tracking down the sleeper agent, I would strongly advise a policy lynch on RIP as a good starting point.

Otherwise, his posting is pretty much the same over confident, consistently poorly written text it's always been, I don't see any variation on his reads or anything that deserves to be reviewed in too much detail.

I think his Day 2 scum read on Nero Cain is very interesting considering this was previously discussed.

I will have to review his entire ISO because for some reason, I don't want to town read him, but I'm town reading him right now. I need to review why I have that conflict.

Spoiler: SnowStorm

SnowStorm is among one of my strongest town reads right now, (as far as reads alone go). I believe his claim of flavor is pretty indicative that he is town, I would love to dig up the post from day 2, but honestly... I think you guys will remember it without the quote.

With that being said, I really am interested to know more about his flavor, because I am thinking the sleeper is probably a VT. In SnowStorm's flavor (as with Nikanor), there is mention that he could be scummy. This makes me very curious to know if either of them have power roles.

Spoiler: Nikanor

Pretty much the same jazz as SnowStorm, I think these two are pretty much confirmed town, high suspects for the sleeper. I want to know if you have a PR, I don't need to know what it is, I just want to know if you're VT or not. I don't mean to out all of the Vanilla Townies, I just want one of either SnowStorm or Nikanor to come forward with this information. I believe the good of having 1 person come out with it outweighs the bad of scum tracking power roles at this point. This is especially true given the importance of the sleeper at this point in time.

Spoiler: Vallilia

ValliliaRei is clearly a power role who presumably has a bunch of 1-shot abilities. I would like to know more about your flavor... After further review, I'm pretty confident that ValliliaRei is town, I have no idea why she would use her 1-shot on Tammy N1 if she were scum... Though, that is currently also being confused with I have no idea why she used it N1.

With that being said, the former point outweighs the latter. It seems very likely that ValliliaRei is town. She could still be the sleeper agent, but I am not seeing it.

1 - Why would Ooba call her out if she was the sleeper agent?
2 - I don't believe the Sleeper Agent starts the game with their PR. Why would they start the game with their PR... They could potentially just waste it all without knowing it?
3 - Even if Ooba wasn't calling ValliliaRei out directly, why would he narrow down the search field to a certain few players? There are no doubt quite a few vanilla townies, it would make little sense for him to reveal that the sleeper is not a VT.

Verdict: I really don't think ValliliaRei is the sleeper

Spoiler: Porochaz

Seems like frustrated town - I have my assumptions about his flavor, so I won't be asking. Namely because I don't want him to talk about it.

Spoiler: Nero Cain

His voting restriction seems town, it also seems like something that the sleeper agent would not have... With that being said, I would like to know more details about Nero Cain's role because at this point, if that's all there is to it... He's basically a waste of a slot (no offense to the player, but more just the role).

Spoiler: Bookitty

I don't have analysis of Bookitty, I think she's clueless. She has yet to make a post which has struck me as knowing what she's doing. Until and unless that happens, she's staying on my town reads.

Spoiler: Sangres

I don't have a read on Sangres to be honest, it's more by associations, his play overall has resembled that of the other town players in this game more so than the scum players... But I have nothing to back it. I don't think it's particularly valuable for Sangres to claim anything either however.

Spoiler: Andrius

Andrius was a strong suspect of mine at the end of day 1, after further analysis, I am removing that read. I don't think he played the strongest day 1, but in this case, I think the voting analysis plays in his favor. It's not something that can really be looked at as it happens, because it's tough to tell without other associations... But let's add Andrius to the list of "by associative tell".

Spoiler: Curiouskarmadog

Curiouskarmadog is town, I have no doubt at this point. His early attack on me could have been scum, but his willingness to sacrifice himself if he didn't get a screen (not a lynch), was a very strong indication that he is town to me.

I think he overreacted because neither of us actually knows the other's flavor, we just know that we are connected in some way. Alas, I think his reaction is as town as it gets.

Spoiler: LLD

This is mainly going to be associative tell through voting analysis... There's not much else to go on. I think it's very interesting that her only screen vote was for herself, while others saw better wagons to get on, she never found a better wagon which to me, points strongly to her not wanting Ooba screened.

Now, with the screen on it's own, I don't think it's a strong tell... But when it came to bro, the behavior was the exact opposite, no hesitation, she just jumped on the wagon.

I think the contrast is more indicative than the significance of each individually, clearly, the scum were on the BRO wagon... Ooba was leading it, so it made a lot of sense that LLD was okay with it as scum, it also makes a lot of sense that she wasn't okay with Ooba screen as scum.

If someone is lurking, on top of that... It's enough of a tell for me. She's scum.

Sleeper Agent

I strongly believe the sleeper agent is among the following:
Nikanor
SnowStorm
RIP
Porochaz
Sangres
Andrius

Each for their own reasons, but I don't really want to elaborate on it more than that.


I also believe that one of the 4 missing players from Day 1 will flip scum, at this stage I have no reads on them... I'm going to take another look after posting. Also, I have no idea what to make of the player who isn't currently in the game.

Before we screen or lynch, I want you guys to take the time to reflect on this and IF you agree, I really think we ought to discuss whether we use our (potentially) last screen on trying to find the sleeper agent 1/6 or trying to find the other scum who could have joined us 1/4(ish... I'm not sure what the probability is given we can't screen 1). *The probabilities only hold true if I'm right.

I also think, out of the 6, Andrius is the worst screen.

unscreen:

[Nero Cain]

yea, my restriction is that I can't vote until a wagon has half the required votes or I suffer a penalty the next day (I am voteless)

Also, the sleeper thinks he's town b/c he/she doesn't know they are a sleeper. I find the Vallia is a sleeper theory to be interesting but is she the best screen today instead of someone like LLD or WS? 'cause idk if I'd be able to get them lynched without a guilty.

[ValiliaRei]

Page 56

@ooba

- If you were looking for Roslin, why did you target Tammy who was claiming Helena Cain? What made you think she might be Roslin?

And

@Porochaz

- Why didn't this strike you as odd?

1. I didn't see it.
2. She wasn't as far as I can
3. I've made that mistake as town more times than I can count.

You didn't see what?

I really want to know why you were liking ooba's claim more than mine:

1. Even though I ended up being wrong about who Tammy was, if you ISO her you can see where I would get the impression that she was breadcrumbing Helena Cain pretty hard.
2. I thought she was town.
3. She claimed PR (by saying that she wasn't a townie)
4. I couldn't get a read on Andrius, she said her role PM said that he might be the one that she was looking for.
5. By the end of day one, she was not certain of her read on Andrius.
6. If my one-shot had worked, she would have been sent a message saying that I inspired her - this would have gone a long way toward clearing me as town.

Targeting her was a reasonable thing for me to do, even if I ended up being wrong.

On the other hand:

1. ooba claimed Elosha
2. He said he needed to find Roslin.
3. He targeted Tammy.
4. He had no reason whatsoever to think Tammy was Roslin.

But somehow his claim is better? And you still thought it was a "nice claim" even after he was confirmed scum?


Moving on to the sleeper stuff -

If, for whatever reason, you think I might be scum, then screening me makes sense even if I don't agree or like it.

Screening me because you think I might be the sleeper doesn't make sense.

Toogeloo's days are numbered because of his claim - we should be screening people we find scummy, not screening people in the hopes of finding a needle in a haystack based on the taunt of a confirmed scum. I have a suspicion that scum are trying to use what screens we have left on non-scummy targets.

I'm suspicious of the people driving the screen (Porochaz) and of the leading screen wagon before me (AP) - even though I haven't noticed anything scummy about him it seems like there are people who really don't want him screened (Porochaz).

@NAA

- I am Apollo.

[Nero Cain]

Screening me because you think I might be the sleeper doesn't make sense.

I think it makes perfect sense, who do you think is scum right now?

[ValiliaRei]

I'm suspicious of the people driving the screen (Porochaz) and of the leading screen wagon before me (AP) - even though I haven't noticed anything scummy about him it seems like there are people who really don't want him screened (Porochaz).

[Andrius]

I knew I wanted to trust you Andy, thanks for not disappointing.

How much do you trust Peacebringer?

[Nero Cain]

those reads suck, val

[ValiliaRei]

Cool beans!

[ValiliaRei]

Screen: Porochaz

@Nero

- Why are my reads bad?

[Nero Cain]

@Nero - Why are my reads bad?

I'm thinking a max of 5 scum, 4 team and a sleeper. That leaves two team and the sleeper. Between LLD, WS and Sangres is prob the last two team scum.

[Nero Cain]

or WL rather

[sangres]

Nero, I can kinda follow your reasons for thinking LLD and we are scum. Why WL?

[Nero Cain]

They were trying to write of Brian's guilty on Ooba as fake.

[sangres]

are you talking about 1302?

[ValiliaRei]

That does make sense. AP was also saying Brian Skies might be a mafia watcher.

[THE WRONG WAGON]

Why the fuck do you have such a hardon for us Nero?

I mean I didn't get 4 posts out before you thought we were scum.

~WS

[Nero Cain]

are you talking about 1302?

si

That does make sense. AP was also saying Brian Skies might be a mafia watcher.

I know and maybe you are right that he was setting up the paranoia on Skies but then if AP were scum he'd know Ooba was scum and thus that as soon as Ooba flipped scum everyone would know Skies wasn't scum so its seems like something sorta useless to post as scum.

[Nero Cain]

Why the fuck do you have such a hardon for us Nero?

I mean I didn't get 4 posts out before you thought we were scum.

~WS

Why are you so incredibly angry?