Mini 1653: A Game of Pokes - game over

[Wickedestjr]

I'm back. Catching up now.

[Wickedestjr]

Read page 37.

Didn't think of that -_-
I still have mt shot if I was rbed.

random, this really needs an explanation.

What made you abandon vikingfan as a top scum candidate from end-of-D1 to post 646?

MonkeyMan temporarily replaced vikingfan as my top suspect.

You answer questions from him even. Your interactions with him post-vote even don't seem like you think he's scum (see 699, 815 for example).

I’m not going to put any less effort into answering somebody’s questions just because I think they are scum.

For now...I'll close this with saying I do not think we can bring random Idigit to LYLO....when is where we will be with one more mislynch.

There’s another solution - lynch somebody with greater likelihood of flipping scum and avoid LyLo entirely.

• - He could be scum. He's been a consensus scum suspect who is only alive by virtue of his claim. Of all the players left in the game; wicked and Kop are the only two who haven't voted random at some point.
  - He could be the one who is bulletproof. A bulletproof SK is not that uncommon and he would be crazy not to claim vig if put at L-1.
  - He could be town telling the truth. But how will we ever know? Even if he is town telling the truth...he apparently can not prove it and his play to this point in the game makes him a town terrible option for a LYLO situation. If scum do have a RB they aren't going to waste a kill on random and will just keep preventing him from proving his claim.

In all three of the above scenarios random idgit is a liabilty and town is better/stronger without him. With a huge bonus if he turns out to be an anti-town role.

I disagree with the bolded. If random is SK, then he is an awful lynch because there is likely a mafia role blocker role-blocking him every night anyway. If random is town, then we absolutely can’t afford to mislynch him because it means seven-man lylo tomorrow which is super tricky.

And there’s little evidence for him being mafia.

[Wickedestjr]

havingfitz is starting to feel like town again, even though I dislike his push for a random lynch.

Vote: vikingfan

- trying this again, hoping it finally works - he is still my top suspect

viking/FA/massive perhaps

[Wickedestjr]

He's at L-2

[vikingfan]

lol the only reason I'm at L-2 is because 3 people are voting me and one only because of pressure, I've seen no actual indication from any other player that they're interested in voting me so I think you're barking up the wrong tree.

That said, it also seems like random isn't getting any traction either so it may be time for us to start branching off to other prospects, much as I don't like rando's play. And to answer the question, I'm not sure if he's scummy or not to be honest. I just know his play is definitely not helping town, especially with his outright refusal to answer questions. Plus, he posts a case on me, declares it to be part 1, I rebut it, and he comes back again and posts a couple of one-liners and never posts part 2, much less rebut what I wrote.

Any thought on finding scum among the vote counts? It's page 39 and we've yet to see much investigation on those. Currently, fitz (though forced to be the hammer), wicked, and FA are the ones on both lynches so that is a place to start.

[Randomnamechange]

I have answered the rb question.
I will make part 2 over the weekend. I'm trying to find the questions.

[vikingfan]

um, no, you didn't. wicked said he wanted an EXPLANATION and I checked your ISO and it doesn't look like you explained anything. And if you're trying to find the questions, you're obviously not trying very hard since fitz, for starters, has been asking his repeatedly. plus I already rebutted part 1 and you've posted quite a bit since then with no rebuttal so I guess you agree with my points. I can't decide if you're deliberately trying to play dumb or if reading comprehension is not your forte but either way, it's definitely not helpful to town.
Mark

[massive]

I'm interested in voting vikingfan.

There, that help?

[massive]

Any thought on finding scum among the vote counts? It's page 39 and we've yet to see much investigation on those. Currently, fitz (though forced to be the hammer), wicked, and FA are the ones on both lynches so that is a place to start.

I already brought this up AND posted my thoughts on FA and Wickedest. Would you like to go back and reread that and discuss it now instead of then?

[havingfitz]

wrt FA Post 947 - I am not advocating a PL on random Idgit (random is male btw) or ignoring his alignment. I will freely admit that I always find a lack of posting and or active lurking to be suspect. And on D1 I might use posting as a PL rationale but 2 or 3 days into a game...lack of posting or active lurking only contributes to my suspicions. It doesn't define them. My opinion towards random is not based solely on his post count. I voice my suspicions on more than one occasion ex here, here and here.

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wrt massive Post 947 - when you say "how about answering mine" and insinuate that I have ignored your question while I am criticizing random Idgit for REPEATEDLY ignoring questions that have been REPEATEDLY brought to his attention...you are overlooking the fact that your question was in an exchange with viking, not directed at me, and was in fact responded to/answered by viking. So why are you inferring I am ignoring your question?

As for the question you (massive) actually do ask me in post 949...I do know what random was thinking when they mentioned Saul as the NK and that was not the point of my trying to keep things straight wrt Saul and EPM. I can think of no reason to purposely substitute Saul for EPM so I can only assume random Idgit was confused. And assuming random Idgit WAS confused...and really thought Saul was the NK...that would support the possibility of random Idgit being scum because 1) random had stated they though Saul was town and typically scum get rid of threats and townreads in that order...and 2) Saul was among the many advocates of a random Idgit lynch (9i.e. the threat bit). So unless someone has a good reason for random intentionally saying Saul was the NK (vice EPM)...then one has to assume they missed it and as such, reflects poorly on them from both an alignment perspective AND from a bothering to pay attention perspective.

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wrt wicked Post 951 - who has a greater likelihood of being scum than random Idgit and why? And why does the possibility that random could be an SK continually getting RB'd make them a bad lynch? SK or mafia...if either is left standing at endgame it still equals a loss for town.

Town can afford one more mislynch. Unless there is a very credible/strong case on someone else being scum (which doesn't seem to be the case up to this point per the results)...then I would rather focus on someone I genuinely suspect who at the same time...if town...who's mislynch would be balanced by the benefit gained of not having them in LYLO. But I do not think random Idigit is town.

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wrt viking Post 954 - You spent most of D1 and D2 on random Idgit. Why? Do you find random suspect? And if your opinion towards random is no different today than it was D1 and D2...why bemoan the fact that his wagon is not getting traction while you yourself or not voting him? As for votecount analysis...I'm a huge proponent of votecount analysis but this game has not been good for that. D1 everyone was pushing for Monkey or Oka...and they were lynched in that order. So D1 scum could have been on either wagon just as easily as the other. The D1 wagons basically cancel each other out wrt vote analysis benefit. And D2's mislynch (Oka) was at one point or another voted by everyone still in the game (except for you).

I actually think there is more room for suspicion OFF the Oka wagon at D2's end.

[massive]

Do you think that if Randomidget, as scum, submitted "Saul" as the NK choice, that the mod would just kill the slot? Do you think that none of his buddies would know the correct current player in that slot?

[havingfitz]

First off, EBWOP from within my last post comments directed at massive. The 2nd line of paragraph 2 should have read "...I do

not

know what random was thinking..."

In response to massive's last post directed at me (Post 960)...as I ponder the wifom in your question here is what I would assume:

• - that the mod would not accept killing Saul as a night action,
  - that the NK would be a group decision and that between the ~3 scum...there would not be any confusion over EPM and Saul and who was here and who wasn't,
  - that scum would be making the nk to be in their best interests,
  - that there would be some sort of plan going into D3

That said...and after the further consideration your line of questioning has generated...answer me this massive (or randomidget or anyone else):

How did randomidgit know that Saul (or his slot at least) was the NK if the mod's NK post only mentions EPM? For randomidgit to be making references to Saul being the NK he would have to have resolved in his head...based on the mod making NO MENTION OF SAUL in his nk post...that EPM = Saul.

I think feigning who the actual NK was would be a good scum tactic for the very reasons you bring up in #960. I was thinking that would be a good thing to try some time. And based on the fact we know random knew Saul was EPM...that's what it looks like to me.

randomscum would need to have some way out of there not being a 2nd nk. He could not would not be able to say he tried to kill anyone other than viking due to his D1 and D2 voting habits and the fact he had voiced a town read on Kop. But scum wouldn't want to kill viking as viking is one of the most suspect players in the game. i.e. random had to claim a shot on viking which scum would not have wanted to make to cover his butt. Enter woe is me there's a roleblocker...or maybe the highly uncommon role of redirector (seriously random??). I think random's actions and comments today do not all belong to him.

tl:dr;

randomidgit knew Saul became EPM and therefore his references to Saul being the nk are misleading and disingenuous.

aka scummy.

[massive]

I don't know. I want to understand your points because I'm mostly townreading you but I feel like we're getting caught up on nitpicky semantics things.

I am interested in the NK. Was it to frame me or because Saul was onnthe right track.

EPM had two posts -- one saying "Hi" and one saying he'd catch up overnight. Saul is definitely the right player to reference here. The problem isn't who he references, now that I'm looking at it, though. Saul's D2 play was minimal at best, but the one thing he DID do was vote Random. Why would Random think Saul might have been killed because he was on the right track, if Saul's track was that Random was scum?

I also think I know why Saul was killed.

I think both Random and viking are good options today.

[Randomnamechange]

I said that I wss used to shot being conserved if roleblocked due to town of Salem.
I didn't know epm was in the game until the flip, so I checked in the title post who he replaced, and the chances are that scum killed the slot bc Saul rather than bc epm. Thetefore it makes more sense to talk about what Saul was doing. You are going to look like a dick when it turns out I was telling the truth.

[Formerfish]

I'll try to be around tomorrow. Mothers day is crazy busy in my line of work, so this week end might be difficult.

[Iknal]

Vote Count 3.1

vikingfan(3): Kop, randomidget, wickedestjr
randomidget(1): havingfitz
Havingfitz(1): FA_Q2
Not voting: massive, Aristophanes, vikingfan, Formerfish
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is 23/05/2015 1900 UTC +10
(expired on 2015-05-23 19:00:00)

[Aristophanes]

Have I commented here? I thought I commented here.

Shit, I'll do that.

[havingfitz]

V/la till Tuesday

[Wickedestjr]

That said, it also seems like random isn't getting any traction either so it may be time for us to start branching off to other prospects, much as I don't like rando's play. And to answer the question, I'm not sure if he's scummy or not to be honest. I just know his play is definitely not helping town, especially with his outright refusal to answer questions. Plus, he posts a case on me, declares it to be part 1, I rebut it, and he comes back again and posts a couple of one-liners and never posts part 2, much less rebut what I wrote.

Any thought on finding scum among the vote counts? It's page 39 and we've yet to see much investigation on those. Currently, fitz (though forced to be the hammer), wicked, and FA are the ones on both lynches so that is a place to start.

If you are town, interested in considering other options and analyzing the vote counts, why don't

you

contribute to the endeavor? It seems like you are waiting for somebody else to start, which is strange if you are town.

[Wickedestjr]

wrt wicked Post 951 - who has a greater likelihood of being scum than random Idgit and why?

The only

stronger

town reads I have are on Aristophanes and Kop. Aristophanes is a gut read and I've explained my Kop read already. So the players that I believe have a greater likelihood of flipping scum include everyone else: massive, you, vikingfan, FA_Q2, and Formerfish.

And why does the possibility that random could be an SK continually getting RB'd make them a bad lynch? SK or mafia...if either is left standing at endgame it still equals a loss for town.

True, an SK is a role that needs to be eliminated in order for town to win. The hypothetical SK needs to be eliminated...

at some point

. But if randomidget was an SK and we lynched him today, I think that puts us in a tougher spot than leaving him alive.
a.) We lynch random, he flips SK, next day is seven man lylo with three scum. We have to lynch correctly three times in a row without the scum (which make up half the town at this point) manipulating any single townie.
b.) We don't lynch random today, we still have an opportunity to lynch mafia today. And if we are wrong, then random's shot is a (somewhat unreliable, yet existing) safety net.
I feel that the latter option would give town an extra chance.

Town can afford one more mislynch. Unless there is a very credible/strong case on someone else being scum (which doesn't seem to be the case up to this point per the results)...then I would rather focus on someone I genuinely suspect who at the same time...if town...who's mislynch would be balanced by the benefit gained of not having them in LYLO. But I do not think random Idigit is town.

Technically, yes town can afford a mislynch. But I think our chance of winning after a mislynch is really small. Town would have to lynch correctly three times, scum will have a lot of influence, and if any single townie makes a mistake then it's game over. Seven man lylo is so tricky, that today is lylo as far as I'm concerned.

I'm a huge proponent of votecount analysis but this game has not been good for that. D1 everyone was pushing for Monkey or Oka...and they were lynched in that order. So D1 scum could have been on either wagon just as easily as the other. The D1 wagons basically cancel each other out wrt vote analysis benefit. And D2's mislynch (Oka) was at one point or another voted by everyone still in the game (except for you).

For the most part, I agree with you here. But I would like to point out that scum don't usually vote together.

[Wickedestjr]

I said that I wss used to shot being conserved if roleblocked due to town of Salem.

I read that post. I just didn't see why you would be so confident if you were basing this off of another game. Perhaps you should check with the mod?

[massive]

There's absolutely no indication that we have an SK. Scum would have had to block Randomidget on N1 and there's absolutely no reason for that. We have had no nights with more than one kill. Please let's not get distracted by setup speculation with zero proof.

[FA_Q2]

Fitz is just trying to force town into lynching random. It is scummy to be demanding a lynch just so that random does not end up in lylo (without consideration as to weather or not he is actually town) and then to speculate that he is a SK because....

Well because fitz wants him lynched. The longer the day goes on the more I am convinced that my vote is in the right place.

[massive]

The longer the day goes on the more I am convinced that my vote is in the right place.

That's funny, because the more often you post, the more I see you defending Randomidget and having no case whatsoever on Fitz.

[Wickedestjr]

FA_Q2, what do you think of vikingfan?