Open 595: Elemental Mafia (Town Wins!)

[lane0168]

Btw I'm voting for everything the rev brought up. Not cause of that change

[FA_Q2]

@Sen, explain FA to me

Not to jump in on him but I would suspect that I am at the top of his list because I seem town. I do not really disagree with that train of thought on the SK either though I am VT.

I think that scums logic on BBT is very sound. I would normally not suggest following scums thought process because they are, well, scum BUT in this case it is not only sound but followed rev's win con to try and eliminate the SK. I have been thinking the very same things for a while now but did not want to get into frivolous hunting for the SK before we had caught scum. Rev's logic in locating them early is obvious now that he has flipped. The push for a flash lynch of anyone certainly adds to my suspicions. There is also the complete reversal that BBT just did over accepting his own lynch – yesterday he would ‘never’ do such a thing and out the gates he is changing his tune. Likely because it was causing him to be under suspicion yesterday.

I will also theorize that the SK went and tried to hit bella last night anyway in the hopes that one or more of the doctors was being an idiot and did not follow the plan. A few of the claimed PR’s are hard lurkers after all – it is not implausible that one would miss the night actions.

Who did you track bella?

I would also point out that

if

this current plan is followed it does not matter what the SK does - they are sure to lose no matter what. Every single night the confirmed townie list stays the same while the lynch pool will shrink by one. That is going to leave the SK with no options at all.


VOTE: BBT

[Bellaphant]

True.

I'd rather lynch anyone but bbt, but I'm probably wrong and he's gonna laugh at me. I'll hammer if necessary and then the plan should be the same: I'll track who I tracked last night and the docs use the same protect.

I'm not gonna out who I tracked, it's pointless right now. Tomorrow I'll tell both?

[Wanderer-nl]

Dave: PR
Wrong: PR
RMM: PR
Bella: PR
ConMan: PR

Plotinus: VT
FA: VT
BBT: VT
Farside: VT
Senator: VT
Lane: VT

+ Wanderer: VT

I'm quoting this because I'm using this list to remind myself what everybody claimed as it's the toppost on the 2nd page of BBT's iso and I'm not there but I don't want to be forgotten.

[Plotinus]

what do you think of this flashwagon thing, wanderer?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

FA, I'm surprised your opinion on people 'giving themselves up' hasn't changed given, you know, the bigger pusher of this actually flipped scum.

I have stated my reasons for the change. Do you disagree with them?

Bella, don't worry. I'm town.

[Wanderer-nl]

What FAQ2 wrote about BBT, that was my first thought too when he said he was suddenly willing to be lynched.
I think we should talk.
If we lynch a VT every day and the SK kills a PR every day, SK is left with a VT last day and will win. It might be very good strategy for SK to not have killed last night. We should talk and if we can't come to a decision today, we can always decide to no-lynch.
Thoughts?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

We should lynch.

We need to narrow the pool down.

[Wanderer-nl]

Oh wait, if we narrow the VT-pool it will be easier for the tracker.
Sigh, I still think we should talk though.

PEdit: yeah just thought of that myself.. Bit slow from tiredness and hit to head yesterday.

[Bellaphant]

(Was it the roller-blading and wine? Seriously, take care) Yeah, we need to narrow down the VT pool. SK is gonna kill pretty randomly in it (if they don't go for the docs), so...

[FA_Q2]

Plotinus: VT
FA: VT
BBT: VT
Farside: VT
Senator: VT
Lane: VT
+ Wanderer:

No, he still does not win because you forget that every single night that he kills one of the VT will become confirmed town so:
Worst possible case scenarios here:

Right now:
7 suspects – 5 confirmed town
Lynch town today:
6 suspects – 5conf town
After night actions:
5 suspects – 5 confirmed town - backup doc takes the place of one of the docs AND 1 VT is confirmed town.
Lynch town again:
4 suspects – 5 confirmed town (again, another VT confirmed town)
After night actions:
4 suspects – 5 confirmed town and we are down 1 doc (last confirmed VT)
Lynch town again:
3 suspects – 5 confirmed town
After night actions:
3 suspects – 4 confirmed town and bella is killed (this has only a 33 percent change of happening)
Lynch town again:
2 suspects – 4 confirmed town.
After night actions:
2 suspects – 3 confirmed town and no docs are left.
Lynch town again:
Last suspect - 3 confirmed town
After night actions:
1 SK and it is a known – 2 Townies to take him out.

IF they had killed last night it would be a mathematical possibility that the SK could win but extremely unlikely. Right now, it is mathematically impossible without town making an asinine mistake.

[FA_Q2]

We should lynch.

We need to narrow the pool down.

We are going to lynch. There is absolutely no hurry whatsoever though.

There is not much of a reason to wait either tbh as, again, we have already won this game. Tell us though; give us one single reason that flash lynching is so damn important to you, serial killer?

[Plotinus]

I hope you feel better soon, Wanderer.

I think talking to each other won't hurt anything. We don't have to worry about the SK finding out who the power roles are because they already know. maybe talking to each other will help. The SK wants us to mislynch today, they have that much in common with regular scum at least.

I think the cross section between the people who were talking about the SK on day 1 and the people who claimed VT might be fruitful (especially if we take context into account -- for example I think it was scummier of Reverend to be SK hunting early in the thread than it was for BBT to say Reverend might be scum because he was talking about the SK early in the thread. They both mentioned the SK but the one was a reaction to the other. Farside was SK hunting on page 14. (post 347)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

There really is no point talking. The game is won.

Let's flash lynch and get this over with.

Farside is a great start.

[Wanderer-nl]

@FAQ2: thanks for putting down the numbers. Now I don't think SK is going to put the numbers out like this and tell town we have already won, so can we not lynch FAQ2 today?

@Bella: I don't think the SK is going to kill from the VT-pool, that only makes him lose the game faster. (Hitting my head happened when I was cleaning up at work, was down on the floor and got up and banged my head into a machine on the wall.. Tiredness is from rollerskating tonight, had training and we practiced hitting (hipchecks, shoulderchecks, bodychecks) and I gave/received quite some impact. It was awesome.)

[Wanderer-nl]

It would be cool though if we didn't have any misslynches at all.

[Plotinus]

yeah. a perfect town win would be nice after the 2 perfect scum wins that are my completed games (i was town both times).

SK is probably going to kill from the PR pool because eventually the SK wants to be able to hit the tracker, no?

[FA_Q2]

It would be cool though if we didn't have any misslynches at all.

Yes, it would be

[FA_Q2]

yeah. a perfect town win would be nice after the 2 perfect scum wins that are my completed games (i was town both times).

SK is probably going to kill from the PR pool because eventually the SK wants to be able to hit the tracker, no?

Likely. Anything else and we win faster.

I guess it depends on whether or not the SK wants to finish this or is still going to try and win the impossible.

[farside22]

I feel like BBT wants to lynch me before we can discuss any plans in case you decide to mislynch me.
You know since I was the one to insist on this in the first place to screw of the SK.

Anyways.

All Doc's Please use the same element tonight as you did last night. Do not make any changes!

That is number one thing out of the way.

If today is a mislynch and well BBT continues to push for my lynch and I can't help make the town win by screwing over the SK like I am (since he wants that) if a doc dies tonight don't forget to claim the element of 2 doc's again with the 3rd doing the one not picked.

Any questions so far?

Consider my vote on BBT

[Bellaphant]

I mean, the SK could just give up...

I'll hammer bbt if it comes to it, but I'd prefer sen/fa/far.

Also, what far said about the drs is correct.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yeah, I agree.

If it is mathematically impossible for SK to win he should throw in the towel.

[farside22]

I mean, the SK could just give up...

I'll hammer bbt if it comes to it, but I'd prefer sen/fa/far.

Also, what far said about the drs is correct.

I don't know whether to feel insulted that you think I'm the SK or what.

If you think I would screw myself over in a 3rd party role like that. You are crazy girl.

[Bellaphant]

It's actually a compliment: whoever did the flub kill n1 was good at this. Seriously

I don't understand your second point.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: Plotinus

Sneaky feeling.

I find myself agreeing with Farside.