Mini 1663: Rick and Morty Mafia (Game Over)

[Flames682]

Also Rainbow nice ignoring the line above what you quoted.

[Rainbowdash]

Also Rainbow nice ignoring the line above what you quoted.

So why aren't you voting d3x yet if you actually buy into that? I mean, that is the only way you can be town right?

[Kthxbye]

First, not sure who died and made Jingle confirmed town, but this him leading everything and deciding who does what is pinging my paranoia hard.

Because of this and my history with d3x, I didn't go after anyone on 'my list' Jingle posted. I went after d3x. I don't know a lot about the show, but d3x is indeed Rick. This result also means d3x indeed didn't do an action last night therefore:

VOTE: Flames

A scum-d3x swapping with Flames is the only way I see flames not being scum and since I learned that d3x is Rick, d3x didn't do anything last night. Since it's pretty cut and dry, we can make a plan for night actions (with more opinions than Jingle's) and move on with this day I think.

[Rainbowdash]

And that's the KO punch

Let me think a bit on what we are doing for actions but can we keep flames off L-1 because that is just inviting a self-hammer.

First, not sure who died and made Jingle confirmed town, but this him leading everything and deciding who does what is pinging my paranoia hard.

Yeah Jingle isn't confirmed town by any reach (although Flames-scum is a good point to Jingle-town). He is in the lynchable pool still here. Really think you are scum still. Two town essentially rolecops (we got Elbrin already) and my role which scum would be good to know where I was if I didn't claim makes me a little paranoid.

Lets just break this down:

Town: Me, Elbrin, lufan
Prob town: d3x, Aristo
The Rest: kthnx, Mainez, KJ, Jingle
Scum: Flames

Mainez then just targets one of the rest, myself or d3x (add Elbrin if Flames is Morty)
Aristo targets Jingle

Right?

Still no hammers, lets not be foalish and muck up something we should be taking a large advantage from.

[lufan131]

So don't vote flames yet? kk~

[killerjester]

VOTE: Flames

totally my idea, this was an original thought

[killerjester]

He's L-2 now

[Jingle]

Ok.

And KJ getting his ability means we know what it is. I don't really see it being incredibly powerful for scum because in that case one of his buddies just fakes a guilty and he lies about who he predicted. If we know what it is, then we can figure out his alignment based on the role itself and how he uses it. This is like D1 shit, RDB, and you know better.

If it's a high scum utility role, there's just too much incentive for scum to fake a guilty, and Flames is noticeably not doing that. In addition to the possibility that he could be lying about who he guesses if he's scum and yeah, I want to figure out what it is.

I'd like to know what your reasoning on lufan and aristophanes is, cause I frankly don't see it.

As for the fact that I basically decided the actions on my own, I asked for input, multiple times, and no one cooperated.

As far as I see, strong townreads are RBS, d3x, Elbirn, and kthx and we're looking for scum in the rest. The only way d3x can possibly be scum is if kthx is, or if Rick is somehow on the scumteam of the "Dark Coalition." I doubt that.

My first instinct is to leave lufan's shot again. He's obviously not getting NKed if town and we have at least a day before LYLO, so... The longer a vig shot lasts the more accurate it is. I agree that mainez should target tonight within the likely scumkills. IMO, it's more useful to get a conftown here or prevent a kill than aiming for a WIFOM-y guilty with a RB. With that said, RBD, d3x, El and kthx are the most likely. I see absolutely 0 chance that kthx is scum with flames scum. There's no reason for scum to have two investigations and there's not enough investigative power anyway.

I'm fine with getting vanilla-ized.

Is there anyone else we have to figure out?

[lufan131]

So just no-action at least one more night? noted.

[Elbirn]

Won't lufan get possibly night killed though?

[Jingle]

I'd really much rather he die than someone I'm sure is town or someone who can confirm other people as town, especially since vig is negative utility in the first place.

Also, he claimed 1 shot bp, so unless something really wonky happened, he's not in danger tonight.

[killerjester]

He's only BP on the night he shoots. Frankly I think he should just get his shot over with so we have proof he's actually a vig.

[killerjester]

It would also get us back on a lylo trajectory which would save us from a forced NL down the road. I feel that's important too.

[Jingle]

I'm not saying that he shouldn't use it, but that he should wait one more day. It's simple math. Tonight, there will be 9 players. Tomorrow night, barring shenanigans, there will be 7 players. 2/9 is less likely than 2/7. Unless you'd like to dispute that?

The thing is that I don't see lufan as a likely nightkill choice. One of the players who is actually confirmed as town, El or d3x, would be more likely. Hell, RBD is an actual universal townread. From a nightkill utility stance, you or Mainez makes more sense. Why would you as scum target lufan tonight?

The LYLO pattern bit is true regardless of when he takes the shot. If we leave it a day until all of the other x-shots are accounted for, then he isn't removing other power from the town. He's more likely to hit scum. There's very little risk associated.

[killerjester]

Assuming you get vanilla iced and Mainez uses his jail shot the only effective power we have left is d3x's self-bus, lufan's vig, my dreaming, and Elbirn's Morty-cop (which is useless if Flames flips Morty). In terms of roles that are immediately dangerous to scum yeah I can totally see them wanting to take out lufan before he shoots.

Mathwise, any "randomness penalties" (ie: if the vig shot was truly random, which it's not) will be compensated for by marginal gains in later lynchings. If you really want to get technical, a vig is actually more accurate than lynching - since town!lufan knows himself to be town.

Personally I think he should shoot you or Mainez.

[d3x]

I see no reason to let Scum live in a Role Madness game. Flames needs to Swing Today.

I also think that lufan should take the shot Tonight. I think he should present a list of 4 targets and everyone should vote on one to be removed. He should then take the shot from among 3.

[Jingle]

Assuming you get vanilla iced and Mainez uses his jail shot the only effective power we have left is d3x's self-bus, lufan's vig, my dreaming, and Elbirn's Morty-cop (which is useless if Flames flips Morty). In terms of roles that are immediately dangerous to scum yeah I can totally see them wanting to take out lufan before he shoots.

Mathwise, any "randomness penalties" (ie: if the vig shot was truly random, which it's not) will be compensated for by marginal gains in later lynchings. If you really want to get technical, a vig is actually more accurate than lynching - since town!lufan knows himself to be town.

Personally I think he should shoot you or Mainez.

Randomness penalties is a blatant lie about what I was saying. I never once insinuated that his target was going to be truly random, but the math reduces just fine.

Using the vig on the same night as the 1-shot JK only adds to the potential mystery in actions. I'd prefer that they act on different nights, and it's fucking obvious that Main is acting tonight.

For example, say they both act, and one person dies. We now have the question of did scum kill the same player, or did the Jailkeep work? It completely negates the chance for Mainez to semi-confirm himself, which is kinda the whole point of him acting. It also ignores the fact that a successful protection from Main manages to put us back on the LYLO track making a vig shot antitown at best.

And the bit about vigs being more accurate is hilarious. They're totally less likely to hit themselves, fine. But they also provide much less in the way of information to be analyzed. There's no defense, or attack, or any thread content that can help link players together and reveal scumteams. Not in this game, but in others, they're much more likely to hit PR's than the lynch. The simple truth is that vigs are more likely to hit town than scum, and they're not worth fighting to save. The best use of a vig is as a hail mary shot after lynching on MYLO, and even then they're not the best option.

[Jingle]

Oh, and don't put Flames at L-1 yet to prevent selfhammering. Although that should be obvious.

[kiwieagle]

Day 2 - VC 1

Flames682

-

Elbirin, d3x, Kthxbye, Killerjester

With 10 Players it take 6 to Lynch. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2015-06-02 08:13:10)

Not Voting:

Rainbowdash, Aristophanes, Jingle , lufan131, Flames682, Rainbowdash, Mainez

[lufan131]

Woah. So many fewer to lynch than I thought lol.

[Flames682]

ayy lmao

[Rainbowdash]

And KJ getting his ability means we know what it is. I don't really see it being incredibly powerful for scum because in that case one of his buddies just fakes a guilty and he lies about who he predicted. If we know what it is, then we can figure out his alignment based on the role itself and how he uses it. This is like D1 shit, RDB, and you know better.

What possible scenario can you envision where KJ can be confirmed town off what he gets? He would not only need to have landed a provable role but one that is provable by something the mod does and makes him town. What is to stop him from getting something like a RB as scum and then claiming he got a doctor and just protected somepony who didn't die?

I cant see him ending up being proven town, so I cant see any reason to leave Flames alive to prove his role or anything like that.

I would still really like to see lufan vig either KJ or kthnx and then Mainz actually start targeting players out of the pool (me, Jingle, and whoever isn't vigged - add in Elbrin with a Morty flip). I would really prefer kthnx vigged based off of what d3x brought up.

My preferred actions:

Lufan kills kthnx
Mainez JKs one of: me, Elbrin, d3x (we are trying to stop the kill here)
Aristo targets Jingle

Biggest reasons for kthnx needing to be vigged tonight

1) He targeted the claim that made the most sense with the role cop. Things like the JK flavor seemed by far the weakest yet he went with what may have actually been the STRONGEST match up.
2) What d3x brought up. Heartless appears to have been killed by targeting Flames, which means that its likely Elbrin was the scum target, which provides some merit to scum being afraid of killing d3x which is minor scum points to kthnx
3) I still don't like his vote on Jingle from day one that seemed to be based on wanting to lynch Jingle instead of hunting for scum.

Good thing is Flames has basically scum claimed.

Can we get agreement from the town block on these? Or anypony breaking these actions?

[Flames682]

My wagon has scum on it you should take a look tomorrow.

Also there's either a redirector or SK. Or Heartless lied.

[Jingle]

Biggest reasons for kthnx needing to be vigged tonight

Biggest reason for kthx not to get vigged tonight: no way in fuck the tracker and the one shot cop claims were both scum.

[Rainbowdash]

Biggest reasons for kthnx needing to be vigged tonight

Biggest reason for kthx not to get vigged tonight: no way in fuck the tracker and the one shot cop claims were both scum.

He claimed role name cop. Not cop. Big difference between the two, they are barely even on the same spectrum of roles. We also already have a specific role cop (Elbrin)

Also if Flames is who he claimed, why would town even need a role cop assuming scum actually have no problems claiming their real roles? I could absolutely see scum having a role cop if they gain some sort of advantage for finding certain roles, or just wanted to speculate on roles.

The role simply makes no sense to be in the hooves of town if Flames flips the character he claimed because it would be completely unnecessary