Open 596: Mega PopCorn Mafia - Over

[vonflare]

Ok then.

[MaxwellPuckett]

No, I agree with some of them. I think you're town, wanderer, as well as RC and CB.

I'm saying that just staying with those reads 'because Nacho said so' is a bad idea, and ignores new information. I didn't ever say they were bad reads.

So Wanderer, does that mean you also think we should never, ever shoot anyone on that list?

[Heartless]

First matter of business. Nacho proposed a short list of "do not shoot" people. I want to see those on the list to comment on whether they agree with this plan or not. I also want those not on the list to comment on whether they think following Nacho's idea of a "do not shoot" list.

The theory itself is ironclad. If there's a town bloc of 4, it's mathematically impossible to lose.

I'm not so sure if CB should be on the list. Antihero thinks so, though. :S
I'm also not so sure if RC should be on the list, unless julien flips vengeful.

Side note to CB: I'm going to go ahead and brag

a little bit

OK, I'm going to brag a lot and say you don't get a record like ours by being hopelessly dissonant. Click into our wiki sometime to see what I mean.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Sure, if you get 4 people to treat as town for the whole game, and they're town, we're golden. But declaring those four before any flips? Not gonna work. You can win almost any mafia game if you can pick a group of people as 'for sure town'. It's just too difficult to actually do effectively, and if scum is one of those four, we're done. Well, not done, I think you can still win in that case, but only because you would realize that the numbers were off once it got to end-game.

[Wanderer-nl]

@Maxwell: The people on the town-list are not to be shot too soon. All us on there are talkative and that will be more helpful later in the game than lurkers. And what no flips? Pablito was there and he flipped town so I don't know what you're talking about. Do you mean scum-flips? Well instead of talking about not trusting the townbloc how about finding actual scum? You have townreads on all those on the list except Heartless. Make your case on him then instead.

Day 1 I wanted to go for active. I have changed my mind about that. I want to go shoot lurkers. And I want everybody to make a list of the order in which they want the lurkers to be shot. I'll go make mine right now. Oh, this is in addition to the referendum, of which I hope Pablito can make a couple for us to respond to as well.

The lurkers are: millar, vonflare, Lucky, Feirei, Flubber, and Jeanne. Is there anyone else that should be added to this list? I have put people on the list that didn't post actual content, I'm not counting vonflare's readslist and his defense thereof because he hasn't done anything since then.

My order of preference to shoot (most to least): vonfalre - Lucky - millar - jeanne - Flubber - Feirei

[Lucky2u]

OK, I'm going to brag a lot and say you don't get a record like ours...

a record you almost lost in my game

[Heartless]

We lynched scum Day 1 and died Night 1. I think we did quite a bit to further our win condition under the circumstances.

[Heartless]

My order of preference to shoot (most to least): vonfalre - Lucky - millar - jeanne - Flubber - Feirei

Why is Flubber so far down on this list?

[RedCoyote]

I want to see those on the list to comment on whether they agree with this plan or not.

To reiterate, I agree and have pledged to follow that "do not shoot" list for this game. I encourage you to do the same now that you're the gunbearer, pablito.

To expound a bit, we'll quite probably be losing pablito at some point (if we don't, he'll definitely get a scummy nomination from me). It disappoints me that Wanderer and Heartless still see me as scummy (or potentially scummy based on X person's flip), but that's their cross to bear. I've made peace with the fact that I will not be shooting CB, Wanderer or Heartless, and it's actually very emancipating. I don't feel overwhelmed by the game at all and see a clear path to victory.

---

Anyways, about Nacho's idea of a Do Not Shoot list... I just think it's a bad idea. Especially one made that early in the game. Nacho made that list with zero flips, so he had the least information out of any GBs. Declaring some people 'town forever' and just leaving it at that is lazy, and disregards later information, or flips, that could come up.

It's a fair point you make, Max, but people can just as easily townhunt as they can scumhunt. Additionally, the first person to receive the gun immediately went against Nacho's wishes and... he shot a townie. Of course this doesn't prove Nacho's list as infallible, but there's a lesson there. Further, I still maintain that Nacho, at least as it's provable rhetorically, has put far and away the most effort in trying to pick that very specific group of people that he called his "untouchables". Another thing I like about our group is how we're a diverse crowd (relative to this game) in our approaches to D1.

And another thing, there are many, many worse strategies to approach a game on this site than putting your trust in townNacho (sure beats townVictor). It bears repeating that, to my knowledge, he has more experience on this site than virtually any other scummer I can think of. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but that's something you can consider positively nonetheless.

[Wanderer-nl]

My order of preference to shoot (most to least): vonfalre - Lucky - millar - jeanne - Flubber - Feirei

Why is Flubber so far down on this list?

Mostly gut, really. I just rather see the 4 before him shot first right now.
What order would you prefer?

[Heartless]

jeanne - Flubber - vonflare - millar - Lucky - Feirei

[Flubbernugget]

Maybe vic crumbled under pressure and wanted the gun in good hands?

do you agree with pablito about... anything?

Are you implying I should scum read everyone I disagree with?

Are you expecting poor leadership from pablito? Why?

[RedCoyote]

I really, really do not want a Jeanne shot. She's very likely town and will undoubtedly shoot someone at random if she ever comes back.

I don't consider Flubber or PN to be lurkers, really.

Also, Wanderer, Victor was more or less a lurker when Nacho shot him. That didn't turn out so well.

enomis would be the closest person to a lurker that I'd be fine with shooting right now.

[enomis]

I really, really do not want a Jeanne shot. She's very likely town and will undoubtedly shoot someone at random if she ever comes back.

Why?

[enomis]

My order of preference to shoot (most to least): vonfalre - Lucky - millar - jeanne - Flubber - Feirei

You seem to have excluded me seeing how you rant about me all days.

And about your townread:
It was your cluelessness in the early game. Scum would prolly know something due to their day chat.

[RedCoyote]

I really, really do not want a Jeanne shot. She's very likely town and will undoubtedly shoot someone at random if she ever comes back.

Why?

I no longer get the sense that she's scum, nor do I now think the scum came into this game with the strategy to have the goons actively bait for a shot. Jeanne and Lucky seem only interested in pestering for a shot to fulfill their vigilante fantasies. Jeanne especially I see no town or scum motivation behind her posts. Further, she may be replaced with someone useful soon, so I would recommend laying off of her until we see if that happens or not.

[enomis]

I mean why is she likely town?

[enomis]

Jeanne and Lucky seem only interested in pestering for a shot to fulfill their vigilante fantasie

This is false about Jeanne btw..

[RedCoyote]

Because the only read I can get off of her posts is that she wants someone to shoot her so she gets to "do something". Ergo, she's probably just a bored townie.

This is false about Jeanne btw..

Shoot me!

I am a resident masochist

C'mon, shoot me. I am the Pope. Everyone hates the Pope.

Shoot meeeee......^_^

[enomis]

Oh she had that. I thought all she posted was hello.

BTW, if you want to know, she lurks in all of the games i have with her. And she site-flakked.

[Heartless]

Are you implying I should scum read everyone I disagree with?

No, he's implying that your current ass-kissing about how he's such a great leader is just that: ass-kissing.

If you don't agree with any of his reads, it doesn't logically follow that you think he's going to be a great gunbearer.

[Wanderer-nl]

@enomis: I don't see you as a real lurker because you do post your thoughts, whereas the others do not. And I was just talking about the (currently alive) lurkers. I was thinking of adding julien and PN inthere but they too sometimes make posts with actual thoughts.

[RedCoyote]

Oh she had that. I thought all she posted was hello.

BTW, if you want to know, she lurks in all of the games i have with her. And she site-flakked.

I realize that she lurks, but she hasn't site-flaked. Check it out yourself.

[pablito]

Good discussion so far. Thanks guys.

Also, what are your guys' expectations of a gunbearer? I have my own ideas, but I think it's also good to get a clear idea.

I currently have an idea of certain players I won't shoot, but that's all I have for now. I will explain my rationale for those later once I reveal them.

[Heartless]

Because the only read I can get off of her posts is that she wants someone to shoot her so she gets to "do something". Ergo, she's probably just a bored townie.

It's a wash. Optimal goon strategy is to lurk to not give away associatives. Asking for the shot is shrug-worthy at best. With roughly half the playerlist being scum, I'm not as optimistic of Jeanne being town as you are.

Nevertheless, I think a Flubber or a julien shot is best right now.