Well I was wrong about Trainedmonkey, but right about patzer.
If (theoretically) there was 1 scum on the wagon (and 1 off) then from my point of view one of [Gravity, Baelish, Heybox] is scum and one of [IAI, OkaPoka, Drixx] is scum.
VCA isn't something that I place a lot of stock in, but if you do, you should consider me to have been on the wagon. You can review my ISO to see why you should.
Also I'm very interested that you came out of the day start by putting yourself down a little and patting yourself on the back a little. Your introduction of VCA theory was really wishy washy too. Something feels really off about that post Stoz.
Sorry Drixx. I was waiting all day for the thread to open up and to see the result of the night actions. When it finally opened up I was just leaving work for the day, so that was a quick reply I came up with. I really don't see what you are so interested in, I don't have anything to fear by putting my thoughts out there.
I agree that you strongly expressed an intent to hammer, so that leaves my wishy-washy VCA at [Gravity, Baelish, Heybox, Drixx] and [IAI, OkaPoka].
Lately I have been convinced that Oka is town, so if VCA works (and maybe it doesn't) that will leave IAI as scum. IAI came out of the gates pretty quickly, and patzer was speculating an IAI / Trainedmonkey scum team but obviously that isn't true.
Do you have any thoughts on the lynch flip and the night activity Drixx? Everyone kept saying we would get heaps of info from a Trainedmonkey flip, but reading over his posts he just seemed really inactive.
The biggest question on my mind is why did the scum team choose patzer? Was she the best player we had? She was suspicious of IAI and thought it was "unlikely" Drixx was scum.
Monkey wasn't inactive at all, he consistently kept posting in the thread, and just avoiding responding to anything. His play was very Anti-Town and changed dramatically for no reason as soon as he got pressure. I strongly thought he was going to flip scum. I'm going to look over the Wagon as soon as possible. I'm not sure why Patzer was killed, maybe because she came across as really Town in the thread? I definitely thought she was Town, and she got me to look in to Monkey's posts.
Heybox pushed on Patzer during day, I think he might be Town. I generally don't like looking in to kills too much, but I don't think he would have killed her as scum if he genuinely thought he could make a case out of it. I thought Patzer was pretty clearly Town though as the Day went on. He did hammer Monkey in the end, but he believed Patzer was scum before that. Would like some other opinions on this?
Would like to hear more from Baelish, and his reads today. I didn't mind his play Day 1, I felt early in that he seemed to be genuinely trying to find his way in the thread and as the day went on he looked to be trying more, and it came across Town feeling to me.
Pretty sick here. Want to reread as I think the patzer kill over myself means drixx may not be scum. Definitely some scum that is trying to throw suspicion my way with the NK target.
In post 332, Drixx wrote:I'm happy to talk about me, patzer. Anything you're curious about from the game so far?
Can't think of anything. I can't see any particular suspicious behaviour from you, which makes me think lynching you would be a folly. But, hey, you're experienced, and I can't rule out you being scum. Though I don't think it's likely.
This plus leaving me alive is srsly making me rethink my scum read of drixx...
You (IAI) argue that Trainedmonkey's behaviour is likely just poor play, not scummy play. In what way is Baelish's play more scummy than Monkey's?
I cannot see a single reason to believe Baelish is scum, other than lack of activity.
Is the inactivity the reason for wanting to pressure/lynch Baelish? I really don't think it's a good idea to wagon a fairly inactive player, two days prior to the deadline -_-
In post 267, Drixx wrote:Brilliant example of starting with a false premise and interpreting {Read: Manipulating} posts and events to suit it.
I agree. While IAI does have some good points, it seems like a case of finding evidence to fit the theory, rather than the other way round. FoS IAI.
Also note that IAI gave a town read on Trainedmonkey in just one line, without reason. Given that Trainedmonkey is at L-1, it would be better to explain why one doesn't have explanation for that player! Overall, IAI has given a reasonable but dodgy critical analysis of Drixx, while commenting little on the other players.
My best guess right now is an IAI/Trainedmonkey scum team.
On Trainedmonkey, it's interesting that his playstyle has changed significantly since his return.
Yeah to all those throwing suspicion for the patzer kill, I challenge you to find one accusation from patzer my way that wasn't tied to monkey being scum. You can't.
In post 267, Drixx wrote:Brilliant example of starting with a false premise and interpreting {Read: Manipulating} posts and events to suit it.
I agree. While IAI does have some good points, it seems like a case of finding evidence to fit the theory, rather than the other way round. FoS IAI.
Also note that IAI gave a town read on Trainedmonkey in just one line, without reason. Given that Trainedmonkey is at L-1, it would be better to explain why one doesn't have explanation for that player! Overall, IAI has given a reasonable but dodgy critical analysis of Drixx, while commenting little on the other players.
My best guess right now is an IAI/Trainedmonkey scum team.
On Trainedmonkey, it's interesting that his playstyle has changed significantly since his return.
Yeah to all those throwing suspicion for the patzer kill, I challenge you to find one accusation from patzer my way that wasn't tied to monkey being scum. You can't.
If you were scum that is what you would want us to think.
It is now Night 1. The deadline is Monday, June 1, at 8:00 AM CST, which is in (expired on 2015-06-01 08:00:00).
It is interesting that heyboxgaming has been in essentially every popular bandwagon. From this information we can pull that heyboxgaming is more of a sheeper and is "riding" this game. Instead of making his own scum cases, he follows the cases already laid out for him to drive up a lynch.
In post 31, heyboxgaminig wrote:Thats not fair, i don't think anybody is shitty here. The day is young.
Lets have a good game guys, also i would love to hear about peoples current experience?? Like, other games on other sites? success in other games?
Especially with you OP (thats what im calling you from now on.) Your being very passive aggressive =)
I've played a couple of games online on another forum, quite different vibe to here - they don't have a rvs so they tend to have the same discussion on what to do each D1, pressure a TPR until they claim and then lynch a vanilla townie that's how it feels anyway!
LOVELY SCUM READ HERE, I want to vote you so bad for this post,
I'm doing it!
VOTE: Trainedmonkey
For two reasons
Why the f@^! would you want to make a TPR claim day one, that's an instant death night one and one step closer to scum winning
and why in gods name would you want to lynch a VT?!?! why would you not want to lynch scum?
Drixx wrote:2.) Whether they are using proper reasoning. I expect town players to look at the evidence and let it guide them to a theory. Scum already know who is on their team, so they by necessity have to use reasoning that begins with a {false} theory that a townie is scum, and then they have to go and manipulate things said person did or said in order to make a narrative that is convincing.
It isn't quite this simple for two reasons. Firstly, this is a newbie game, and thus some town players might not be good at strategy, and thus not implement this evidence-based theory system. Secondly, and more importantly, scum do not appear to use reasoning that begins with a false theory! They would find a false theory, and construct a narrative leading to it. But then they would try to portray the theory in the same way that they believe a townie would. Due to this, it's difficult to find the subtle differences between theory-based evidence and evidence-based theory, when they're presented in the same way.
The general gist of what you're saying is true - thank you for that - but I think it paints the differences between scum and town behavior as being bigger than they are.
As for #1, activity level, how would you apply that to a player like Trainedmonkey? He has told us that he's played elsewhere, but doesn't want to provide a link to the games played elsewhere.
Had just written this, when I realized I was using loaded language negatively portraying Trainedmonkey, in order to ask what appears to be a neutral question. That is bad. I'm just leaving this here as an important reminder to avoid this sort of a fallacy, as it ties in with Drixx has been saying about correct logic.
In post 184, patzer wrote:I announce that, if it gets within 2 hours of the deadline and we still haven't lynched anyone, I intend to vote for the player who has the most votes at that point, regardless of my opinion of the guilt of this player.
Does that include yourself? Are players even allowed to vote for themselves?
Yes and yes.
Self hammering is scummy.
No reason to self hammer yourself if you know your town. thats a minus 2 per night apart from a minus 1 which goes towards a scum win condition.
In post 249, Trainedmonkey wrote:Been a 3 day weekend here. Not round much on weekends. See another vote on me. When I flip town will that still help you formulate your opinions?
But you are here now, and that's how you choose to respond? Not even an argument against the points brought up about you, just 'when I flip Town'. Not a very compelling argument, or something that would make me want to switch my vote.
Lynching Drixx is bad because he is IC, to be frank, i dont care if he is scum just yet because the posts he has made (although 70% are "will make a post soon" kind of filler) are good. somewhat. If the deadline was not so close i would go and side with IAI. If i was a cop he is the one i would inspect.
Lynching IAI, this is not going to happen. I like the push he has made against drixx, adore it in fact! scum would not do this! probably my only real town read at this position of time. except for maybe...
Monkey is town. No self hammer makes me think that scum are waiting patiently for the deadline lynch and maybe are just trying to confirm to everybody to stay on this wagon... and who might be doing that you ask?
well..... patzer.
Sorry for this
Unvote
VOTE: Patzer
I know we are close to a no lynch but as i said before i would rather have that. + the night kill will be all I need to make a push on day 2, as to me, night kill info is much better then lynch info!
In post 31, heyboxgaminig wrote:Thats not fair, i don't think anybody is shitty here. The day is young.
Lets have a good game guys, also i would love to hear about peoples current experience?? Like, other games on other sites? success in other games?
Especially with you OP (thats what im calling you from now on.) Your being very passive aggressive =)
I've played a couple of games online on another forum, quite different vibe to here - they don't have a rvs so they tend to have the same discussion on what to do each D1, pressure a TPR until they claim and then lynch a vanilla townie that's how it feels anyway!
LOVELY SCUM READ HERE, I want to vote you so bad for this post,
I'm doing it!
VOTE: Trainedmonkey
For two reasons
Why the f@^! would you want to make a TPR claim day one, that's an instant death night one and one step closer to scum winning
and why in gods name would you want to lynch a VT?!?! why would you not want to lynch scum?
In post 20, Drixx wrote:@Hexboxgaminig - You do realize that there is a full stop at the period right? I said that no role was worthless. I then pointed out that even "no role" has upsides. Noted that you tried to attack the IC by intentionally misinterpreting something he said. Scum tend to target the IC as a general rule. You just went to the top of the suspect list.
OOOOOOOOOOH defensive, i like that! as you would say "noted"
Also if you thought i was being serious this early in the game and with the amount of "smileys" i used then forgive me for forgetting that you are the IC
@Drixx, this OkaPoka does seem very different than the OkaPoka from before
In post 356, Gravity wrote:Would like to hear more from Baelish, and his reads today.
About this, since Patzer was the one killed last night, wouldn't it be a good idea for the Mafia to kill someone who was going after them? So, by that logic, the only people besides Trainedmonkey that Patzer went after were I Am Innocent and Heyboxgaming.
In post 366, Baelish_of_Ravenclaw wrote:Also, since I was criticized for not voting very much before, I'll go off of what I just said and what OkaPoka was saying and:
Vote: Heyboxgamming
Be careful of doing this, especially when you're town. When you place a vote and either just repeat what someone else said or just outright say "I'm gonna vote because of what HE said", that's called sheeping, and sheeping will frequently get you scumread. Some players will tunnel you for it even.
I personally don't mind sheeping when someone's pretty honest about it. Sometimes someone just makes a good case and you really can't add anything of worth to it.
It wasn't just because of what he said. I pointed something out two people that could be suspicious to me and, since Oka had some good points about one of them, I decided to go for that one. Last time, I saved my vote for when I really thought I knew something, but was heavily criticized for that, so I decided this time that I'd try voting for whoever seemed suspicious to me at the time. Is that not a good course of action either?
Done a bit of an analysis on everyone on the game so far, and looked over the Wagon of Monkey also.
Drixx - I sway on him a lot, he hasn't felt overly Town since the start. I feel like he plays it safe, and that's more often tha not a scum attribute, as Town have no reason to play it safe unless they have some sort of PR. What I mean by playing it safe is that I don't feel he goes out of his way to push something, or hasn't at least done that so far judging by his ISO. He sits on the sidelines, but makes good observations. Which is to be expected from an IC. This is the sort of play that he could easily coast on as Scum, whilst appearing to be helpful. I feel like he can use his position of an IC to his advantage if he was scum, considering this is the first game he has been it. I don't feel confident enough to vote for him yet, and still have posts that I see from him that feel Town. When I was looking through his ISO, I noticed he didn't go out of his way all that much, he defended Monkey also, and said the Wagon was bad and Monkey was Town. I could see him doing this as scum to look good potentially.
Baelish - I genuinely feel like he's trying to help Town. Although I'd like to see him give more of his own individual reads also. I did like post #170 in Day 1, when he went through everyone, felt like a Town effort from a new player. And I felt he didn't just skim the thread, and actually looked in to posts beforehand to make his observations and reads. That looks good to me. Has felt Town to me so far, but would like more reads from him today.
Heybox - I didn't necessarily like his Day 1 play, but it didn't overly bother me to the point where I'd feel inclined to vote for him. I don't like the bangwagon hopping Oka pointed out from Day 1. I did believe he could be Town earlier because of the kill on Patzer, but that could have very well been planned by him as Scum. I liked what Oka threw down, but I want to see how he responds to Oka's case first, before I decide whether to vote for him or not.
Stoz - His reactions on Day 1 bothered me, and felt very knee-jerk, especially the OMGUS and I noted that. I'm not sure I like his recent posts all that much to start the Day off, he came across as one of the more suspicious on the Monkey wagon IMO, I could definitely see it being Scum play, his whole ISO feels very underwhelming actually. I don't feel like there's a genuine Town effort there, he only does as much as he has to from my perspective.
I Am Innocent - Feel like he's probably Town now. Play feels Town IMO, I don't have much of a reason to suspect that slot and looking over his ISO, and I actually liked Jeanne before she replaced out. I wouldn't lynch him at this point, there's more viable options, and he really hasn't been all that suspicious in my eyes. If anything, I like his push on Drixx from the previous phase, feels like a Town effort, and he went out of his way to produce his own case. Also, defends himself well I feel.
Oka - Didn't know what to make of his less-than-serious play on Day 1, but I like how he came out of the gates right away this phase, and pushed on Heybox. That feels very Town to me.
To condense my thoughts a little bit:
Convinced they are Town:
IAI
Oka
Probably Town:
Baelish
Null:
Drixx - I'm not convinced either way, but do feel his play comes across very safe, and definitely could be play coming from Scum. But not confident enough and have enough stock in that lynch yet.
Heybox - The kill has me in a bit of a lull, but I would vote him for the flip, I don't necessarily find him to be Town, and what Oka threw down looked good to me. Didn't like the wagon hopping.
Scum:
Stoz - Went over it above, don't like his play. Feels underwhelming for a Town player. I'm going to vote him right now as it stands. Would like to add some pressure on him Today, looking through his ISO bothered me and I noted how I didn't like his reactions on the first day.
VOTE: Stoz
This is where I feel most comfortable right now, I would have probably voted him if not for Monkey on Day 1.
It would be Heybox, I don't feel as strongly enough on Drixx yet to lynch him even though I do slightly suspect him, and if not lynching Stoz, would like to see Heybox's flip personally.
@Drixx why are you so cautious with your votes? You've thrown down 1 rvs vote.
Meta or not that is way too cautious and I have a feeling you are trying to avoid in VCA's or blame for mislynches.
I posted my intent to hammer yesterday, because we needed to lynch. Given there were others who wanted to hammer, I didn't see any need to be the one to do it. Everyone can see I planned to do so, so you should consider me to have done so.
I vote when I believe someone is probably scum. Right now I'm interested in reactions from people to help me be a little more sure.
that's how it feels anyway!
