Mini 1664: TES4 UPick (Day 4)

[Albert B. Rampage]

Well I'm voting ika, he is anti town.

[Bins]

Do you think he's scum

[Albert B. Rampage]

yeah

[House]

yeah

Then why did you call him anti-town?

Scum and anti-town are not interchangeable.

[ika]

Well I'm voting ika, he is anti town.

what have i done in this game specifically thats anti town?

i mean if we are going to argue im an anti-town player, you could be held to that same standard (NY 180....)

[Dierfire]

I'm posting from my phone to dodge the prod. I will catch up within 24 hours. Apologies for the delay!

[Burn Your House Down]

post
in case i don't have time to be back here soon

[The Bulge]

Can we please ignore the whole ika/ABR thing for now

Please

It's really hard to stay motivated in this game when every time I check the thread all I see is broken-record-ABR.

[Bins]

quick

say its TvT

[The Bulge]

Is this a test

[The Bulge]

Did I say something about someone TvT earlier this game

Jesus I need to re-read

[McMenno]

McMenno, do you have a scum read on me because I hurt your feelings, or do you have actual reasons? Because you literally haven't mentioned me at all until your post saying I was a top-2 scumread.

Because I think you're acting the least town, after ABR of course.

[Burn Your House Down]

he was lucky to have dodged a bullet

?

uh in day 1?

?

why are you acting like you have amnesia

[Burn Your House Down]

Bins, what do you think?

Going to throw another question back at you.

Do you think it's more likely that this is scum v. town or town v. town?

Honestly, I can see that being a possibility. But I'm more worried about one of them being scum in the first place .. if that makes sense.

you mean ABR and ika? said it looks like scum vs scum

[Dierfire]

All right I'm caught up again! I see that not much actually happened.

@McMenno

Why is Chaos suspicious to you? Why is Ika less suspicious than ABR to you?

@Bulge

If we ignore the Ika/ABR fight then on what should we focus instead?

---
I'm writing my post on Stab now.

[ika]

getting over a hangingover will get to this tonightish

[Albert B. Rampage]

Broken record ika you mean.

[Dierfire]

All right, so while I was doing my list of reads earlier I sort of talked myself back into being suspicious of Stab. I'm going to do this as a series of quotes and my commentary from when I was reading him as Mafia and when I was reading him as Town. I'd appreciate feedback from anyone that wants to look them over. It seems that Stab's replacement isn't here yet, which is probably just as well--I'll write this up for Stab's entire ISO and then we'll see about the replacement.

Spoiler: Stab sees a "scumclaim"

@Stab

@Stab

If McMenno were accidentally revealing himself to be Mafia and accidentally revealing ABR to be his partner, why would you vote for McMenno instead of ABR (the larger wagon)? Or, put another way, if you believe your own logic, didn't you want to move as close to lynching one of those players as possible?

That's an excellent observation, you're right on the money. If I believed that McMenno were accidentally revealing himself and ABR to be mafia, I would indeed logically vote for the larger wagon and lynch ABR.

Oh, well, good then! Perhaps you could explain what you believe instead?

I could have sworn I'd already posted that I like to vote people who scumclaim. I'm very forgetful these days. By the way, how far are you planning to read into a vote that was roughly as serious as McMenno's scumclaim? Would you mind sending me your thesis when you complete it?

My level-up move is hammering. I'll claim that early because it's a little anti-town.

When I first read this I was thinking that it seemed overly defensive and, simultaneously, that Stab was trying to play his vote off as less than serious. Either one alone is fine but together seemed suspicious to me.
On the other hand, claiming his leveling condition here isn't necessary if he's Mafia, and his later behavior is consistent with him being truthful about his leveling condition.

Well, my initial vote was objectively baseless, but I'm more and more comfortable lynching McMenno for real now. Look at his ISO.

If Stab is Mafia then this post continues in the vein of defending the vote that is supposedly not serious. The lack of substance on "look at his ISO" makes this vote easy to justify later, and he should be expecting the follow-up question about what specifically in the ISO is suspicious, so why not add it in?
Later, though, I was thinking--why not back off the vote if he's Mafia? It would be easy to just say that the vote isn't serious and leave it at that. He could even try to join one of the other wagons at this point. It would be easy enough to just pretend to agree with someone's reasoning and follow their vote.

Spoiler: Stab's response to his critics

Your post #120 is terrible too. If McMenno were seriously scumclaiming along with ABR he would be modkilled- and I'm pretty sure you of all people should know this firsthand.

I'm humiliated. You must think very poorly of my playing ability if you think you can lie that blatantly without me catching it.

You never amended your read of McMenno until I revoted you

McMenno, I do actually want to lynch you now.

Liar.

now you're trying to say your vote on him wasn't over a fucked up assumption of a scumclaim

a vote that was roughly as serious as McMenno's scumclaim

Liar.

all this time defending that very stance

Does my vote make you uncomfortable, House? For all this talk of reading into a vote too much, you seem to take mine very seriously.

Pants on fire.

I voted him because he scumclaimed. I do not think his scumclaim was serious, and if you think my vote was serious then I don't know what to say to you. I told you the opposite in my fourth post in the game. My vote has become more serious, as I have said more than once and well before you revoted me. Stop lying or at least put some effort into it.

and before you rant any more, you should consider explaining your lie about me not amending my read of McMenno before you revoted me.

I'm noting this series of posts here because Stab later comes away reading House as "genuine" in a way that seems inconsistent with this series.

Pedantry. What's the scum motivation for any of that? I feel like you're trying to bait me into being over-defensive and looking scummy. I can cast an unserious vote as a poke at a player and explain why I did it.

I thought that this post was even worse in retrospect. What does "pedantic" even mean here? The motivation behind ducking questions as Mafia is, obviously, to avoid having to fabricate justifications for reads that are known to be false. Approaching questions as though they are traps is a very Mafia-oriented mindset.

I'm going to flip town. Please don't townread Lalaladucks tomorrow for this. Yes, we would expect scum-Ducks to use the power to derail a scumbuddy's wagon rather than just spite me, but it's complete WIFOM to speculate whether she would do it for towncred anyways.

I don't know how to read House. He seems genuine, whatever that means.

Dierfire's pressure on me was terrible, pedantic, and blatantly trying to buddy up to House. He's playing very much to stay out of the way/fly under the radar while looking useful. Don't let him do it.

Let me reiterate, whatever you do, do not townread Laladucks for this tomorrow.

At this point in the game I was getting fairly comfortable reading Stab as Mafia. In my notes at the time, I was certain that he would turn on Ducks and I was thinking that his partner would rescue him by pointing out that Venmar was suspicious and that Ducks had removed that option from the table. The read on Ducks is rather poor here--is she Mafia or not? Saying "don't read her as Town" while not actually reading her as Mafia is a good way to avoid being lynched today if the lynch did go on Ducks yesterday, as I was expecting he would try. The read on House is also strange in light of the series from earlier. If House is lying then it doesn't make sense to say that he's genuine.
If Stab is Town then this post probably represents frustration and confusion more than anything.

Spoiler: Stab resigns himself to the lynch

And thus ends my first foray outside the newbie queue. Don't townread ducks for this. You all can for the most part spot scum a lot better than I can but don't forget about dierfire. He's playing exactly like I do as scum. Don't townread ducks for this.

Again, if he's Mafia then the plan is to get the lynch on Ducks eventually. To that end, pointing out that this is his first game outside of the Newbie queue is meant to invoke sympathy. Saying not to read Ducks as Town without actually telling us what he believes is good if he's Mafia planning to lynch Ducks and doesn't give much information if he gets lynched instead. There's a problem here with the self-meta, too. Specifically, Stab has already played a game with me in which he was Mafia and I was Town. He says that I'm playing the way that he did as Mafia but he doesn't say that I'm not playing the way that I did as Town, which would seem to be the more natural reason to read me as Mafia--if he thought that he could get away with it.
If he's Town then he repeats the bit about not reading Ducks as Town because he really means it. That's consistent with reading Ducks as Null, I suppose. The bit about the Newbie queue is perhaps just an overly dramatic way to express his frustration. The self-meta would then be an honest attempt at a contribution.

No, I'm fine being the lynch today. In fact I think it's the best choice given how day one has played out. Information from my flip (if nothing else, my interactions with dierfire) probably outweigh the utility of me being alive and while my role is useful to town it's less useful once I fullclaim, which is the only way I have a hope of avoiding being lynched...

@Stab

That was a very defeatist set of posts right there. If you're Town, then why not vote for Ducks? Even if you were 95% certain that Ducks is Town, she'd be a better lynch than you, right (or does your Role PM not say that you're Town)?

And get lynched tomorrow? No thanks. I win when town wins, not by living to the end of the game. Town is 100% fine if I'm lynched today, especially if it makes them lynch you tomorrow. I'm not confident that Ducks is scum either, and with that in mind town-stab dying is acceptable compared to town-ducks dying.

You trying to pressure me when I've already accepted my lynch is, well...

Me flipping town should help town get reads on you and ducks if nothing else- what do we get from ducks flipping town? It's not as simple as "I know I'm town and I don't know ducks is, so I need to defend myself to the last breath."

This series of posts is where I started to consider that Stab may have been Town after all. He seems genuinely confident in his flip, and really starts pushing the limit of how long I was expecting him to wait before turning on Ducks.
On the other hand, he seemed fairly confident that Ducks would flip Town. So I asked him some questions (next section).

Spoiler: A change of heart

@Stab

1. Should I vote for you?
2. Could you answer my question about what was suspicious about McMenno's ISO?
3. What is your actual read on Ducks?

1. As I said, town is probably fine if I'm lynched, but House flipping his read on me has made me reconsider my lynching as inevitable... it's still probably better if I flip. I don't know. If I survive today that's a chance for me to use my power to help town tonight, but there's no reason for ducks to die because I don't think we get info from a ducks townflip. It's a complicated situation, use your judgement.
2. He's an active lurker and his interactions feel forced.
3. Null. I'll trawl her ISO tonight.

I was expecting him to push Ducks rather than continue to accept the lynch once the threat became real, although I was expecting him to make that transition a bit earlier. Continuing to read Ducks as Null while preparing for her to flip Town remains suspicious to me, and it's surprising that he hasn't even tried to see whether she'd be Mafia after she used her power in what is fairly obviously an attempt to force his lynch.
It is a long time to wait before turning on Ducks, and I would have expected him to at least try to make the case that Ducks could be Mafia. The fact that he didn't is what made me think that he might be Town. The next post especially is an example of this:

So, after a reconsideration, I do want to lynch Ducks. Her power is purely anti-town, especially with the imminent L3 and L4. Now that PRs are on the table my earlier resignation is unwarranted: Ducks needs to die.

I need to hammer to survive the night, so I won't vote yet.

Not reading Ducks as Mafia while voting for her is ordinarily highly suspicious to me, but I can see the logic here if Stab is Town. Her power could play all kinds of havoc with the lynch even if she's Town, and if she's Mafia then she might not even be telling the truth about the conditions that apply to the challenge.

Anyway, the short version is that I've talked myself back into being suspicious of Stab although still less than I was before Ducks issued the challenge. If Stab is Mafia then I would expect his partner(s) to be in the group that shifted the lynch from Stab to Ducks (Bins, House, Bulge, and ABR).

[pieguyn]

GIF dragged me in here bc he was too busy to update the VC. I wonder if he'll notice no one actually moved their vote?!

VC 2.03

Albert B. Rampage (2):

McMenno, ika

Venmar (3):

Stabulous, Bins, Burn Your House Down

The Bulge (2):

House, ChaosOmega

ika (1):

Albert B. Rampage

ChaosOmega (1):

The Bulge

Not Voting:

DierFire, Venmar

With 11 alive, 6 to lynch

The deadline is

June 12, 2:05 PM EST

.

Countdown:

(expired on 2015-06-12 14:05:00)

[ChaosOmega]

McMenno, do you have a scum read on me because I hurt your feelings, or do you have actual reasons? Because you literally haven't mentioned me at all until your post saying I was a top-2 scumread.

Because I think you're acting the least town, after ABR of course.

McMenno, do you have a scum read on me because I hurt your feelings, or do you have actual reasons? Because you literally haven't mentioned me at all until your post saying I was a top-2 scumread.

Dier:
a) Does that mean Stab is your top scumread?
b) If Stab is scum, who is most likely to be his partner out of [Bins, House, Bulge, and ABR]?

[House]

I'm not scum, silly.

[ika]

Broken record ika you mean.

bitch, ive been a broken record for my 22 years of life. go fuck off jsut recently i feel like im actualy getting soemwhere in my life and you to make shuch shittyness of it really shows how much lack of care you have.

lycnht his with fucking fire

[Dierfire]

Dier:
a) Does that mean Stab is your top scumread?
b) If Stab is scum, who is most likely to be his partner out of [Bins, House, Bulge, and ABR]?

Yes, Stab is now the player of whom I'm most suspicious. For partners, I'm thinking perhaps House and/or Bulge. I wouldn't rule any of them out, though.
My logic on House is that Stab was calling House a "liar" but then reading him as "genuine" which seems a strange read. If Stab is Mafia, that means that he didn't want to lynch House, but I don't see any reason for that if Stab is Mafia and House is Town, because it doesn't especially seem that House was any more difficult to lynch than any of the other players or that House was especially likely to be deceived by Stab's arguments. Also, as I mentioned in my earlier list of reads, I think that the switching of votes between Stab and Ducks was off.
My logic on Bulge is that he implicitly reads Stab as Town here:

Ugh

If Stabulous is telling the truth, we should keep him alive. In that case, lalala is either scum, or town who has used up their [anti-town] role.

VOTE: lalaladucks

Pretty awful move for Day 1 :( Now we don't get an analyzable wagon tomorrow. This could screw us over long-term.

He leaves out the other important condition: if Stab is lying, then Ducks is either Town that made an excellent move or Mafia that guaranteed a Mafia lynch for Town credit. There's no reason that the move by Ducks is detrimental to Town unless Stab is Town, so this vote really requires a substantial justification that Stab is indeed Town.
Actually, the more that I think about it, the more suspicious this vote is. That's true whether Stab is Town or Mafia.

VOTE: Bulge

[Burn Your House Down]

Dier:
a) Does that mean Stab is your top scumread?
b) If Stab is scum, who is most likely to be his partner out of [Bins, House, Bulge, and ABR]?

Yes, Stab is now the player of whom I'm most suspicious. For partners, I'm thinking perhaps House and/or Bulge. I wouldn't rule any of them out, though.
My logic on House is that Stab was calling House a "liar" but then reading him as "genuine" which seems a strange read. If Stab is Mafia, that means that he didn't want to lynch House, but I don't see any reason for that if Stab is Mafia and House is Town, because it doesn't especially seem that House was any more difficult to lynch than any of the other players or that House was especially likely to be deceived by Stab's arguments. Also, as I mentioned in my earlier list of reads, I think that the switching of votes between Stab and Ducks was off.
My logic on Bulge is that he implicitly reads Stab as Town here:

Ugh

If Stabulous is telling the truth, we should keep him alive. In that case, lalala is either scum, or town who has used up their [anti-town] role.

VOTE: lalaladucks

Pretty awful move for Day 1 Now we don't get an analyzable wagon tomorrow. This could screw us over long-term.

He leaves out the other important condition: if Stab is lying, then Ducks is either Town that made an excellent move or Mafia that guaranteed a Mafia lynch for Town credit. There's no reason that the move by Ducks is detrimental to Town unless Stab is Town, so this vote really requires a substantial justification that Stab is indeed Town.
Actually, the more that I think about it, the more suspicious this vote is. That's true whether Stab is Town or Mafia.

VOTE: Bulge

i actually like this post...

[Bins]

i agree.. i didn't realize how bad bulge's post looks in the context that stab might be scum

ofc i dont really like association tells on someone who hasn't flipped yet ,_,