Open 596: Mega PopCorn Mafia - Over

[Perpetual Nonsense]

Yeah...

[Lucky2u]

hey pablito, now that you have had a taste of blood, is it my turn?

[pablito]

hey pablito, now that you have had a taste of blood, is it my turn?

Ignored.

I hold a lot of the responsibility for not guiding discussion better, but there's no reason why town has to be this silent overall save for several players (cb, wanderer, west, kari, suzune, heartless, rc). I've seen games where the lynch dynamics have been changed and voting doesn't happen, but the discussion still fosters because people have an interest in scum hunting. We've discussed the setup, but the fact remains that if we just go off of everything from D1 and just keep shooting from that, it's not doing honor to the game of mafia and it'd be better served as a mish mash or scumchat game. So for the sake of

mafia

, lurkers please contribute. I will post questions now to help. And if you are seriously playing this game just for your vigilante fetish, then you are a selfish person for playing this game.

Also if the mafia team is lurking because they've given up, then it's also an option to notify the mod that you've all given up. We've gotten a few lurkers to replace out, but this game annoys me so, and I will not listen to Titus or Lucky begging for a shot. Furthermore Titus, because this game has no "lynches", scum regrouping is not going to be affected by the gunshot, as long as the GB sticks to their guns, so to speak.

[pablito]

Questions to start up more discussion. Although, my current plan is to shoot someone by Wednesday.

Titus - If you feel that scum get a chance to regroup when time lags, how do you feel about D3 where I admit that I came in wanting to shoot West9 but after the nominations and shortlist process, but then chose not to in the end based on what everyone said about West. Do you feel that there were specific people trying hard to distract me from that shot?

PN - You said previously you would shoot Flubber, and then later CB, wanderer and Jeanne. How do you feel about those latter 3 still? I'm very curious to hear your view on Titus, especially.

Flubber - Yeah, you got enough to respond to here already. You get a pass from me.

West9 - You have your plans, but I'd also like to hear your plans if you think that anyone during D3 was trying to buddy up to you during the shortlist phase.

Suzune - Whom are your town reads? In reading your ISO, I'm not sure you ever did get to that post where you meant to say them...

enomis - Where the hell are you? You meant to read the thread and then didn't again. Also you didn't like millar, so what do you think of Monkey now?

vonflare - You posted Maxwell's reads before Maxwell flipped, right. Maxwell gave interesting insights on both julien (now Suzune) as well as RC. Maxwell called both scum - now that Maxwell's dead, what do you think about those two?

CB - I'm waiting for your post and reaction to Maxwell's flip most of all before any shot is made.

RC - If I were to make a "do not shoot" list, I'd honestly consider adding on MonkeyMan and Kari on there. Your thoughts?

[Titus]

Scum don't need to regroup after a town is shot. So your premise is faulty. Everything is going swimmingly if town gets shot. I have no problems with you suggesting one thing and doing another as it is a decent tool to get reads from. I am townreading West, so I don't have a problem with people defending him. It's a read worth noting if the game hits Lylo but right now I want to work off what we had.

Vonflare slipped. He should have been shot. Period.

[CB]

]

MonkeyMan576

replaces millar13

Welcome!

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A couple of things about the flip:

Maxwell was the first one to bring up the setup logic of Vengefuls being the only ones who could win the game 149. This means any world in which mafia originally misunderstood the setup and were using vengefuls more like jesters to get the stronger players out of the game early is very unlikely.

Also the fact that one of his hard stances he took was against the do not shoot list 567 makes me think that none of people on that list are vengeful.

Judging him on his day 3 by the effort he put into his posts makes me feel as if he thought himself a dead man walking at that point so was just putting out random spew so I won't place much important into associative interactions on that day.

His day one is a bit all over the place. He goes back and forth a lot on his reads doesn't really take many hard stances on other players. Gives a soft ball scum read on Julien for pressuring Wanderer but later rescinds on that read looked more like an attempt to buddy with Wanderer than anything to me. Doesn't want to shoot lurkers but later does. Puts out a readlist with one slight scum on it and just a bunch of observations. It is like his approach this game was to limit any associative reads off of him.

West9 did soft defend a bit but I don't think mafia sticks their head out there to protect a goon. Soft defends lucky and pushes for Vonflare and Millar 456 to be shot over him when he thought Millar was a bad shoot a few posts before 453 and gave a town read on him before that 372.

More likely to be town: Millar, Vonflare, Wanderer, people on do not shoot list

More likely to be scum: Lucky

It is hard to sort through I will try again later.
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What is your Suzunne-read? (843 was a reply to 835 and the quote comes from Suzunne 826 and I would even appreciate short postlinks over quotes without name and postlink)

On the fence, a lean scum due to Julien.

Scummie

:
I think her original post was alright but she later identifies going against the grain as a town tell so I feel like it is something she would add into her scum play.

I sort of get a town read from him. He does not always have the same opinion as everyone else and scum would typically want to sheep in order to not draw attention to themselves.

The fact that she seemed very noncommittal to the read supports this.

However, this might be a play style issue rather then a scum/townie issue.

As well as the appeasement type language which would be weird to use when talking to a legitimate scum read.

Townie

:
A lot of her posts seem to come right off of her notes which indicates a more stream of consciousness mindset which I think is more likely to come from town than scum.

From a certain perspective killing a vengeful is still a win for the mafia because they eliminate townies. Red asked be if it was not just people who wanted the gun. What if it is the other way around. If the regular mafia can blend in well then killing the vengeful forces us to lose townies and not know where to look. Just a sudden revelation that I had.

Yea I think mafia would be more aware of the role of Vengefuls in this setup. Vengefuls still carry most of the weight towards mafia's win condition.
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So we have a new list. We have Nacho's "never shoot" list and now we have Heartless' "scum list".
vonflare, Perpetual Nonsense, Lucky2u, West9, Titus, MaxwellPuckett, millar13
So what do you think?

I would take West9 off the others are fine.

Also pablito's current shortlist is now: Suzune, Titus, vonflare, West9.

Please rank order those 4 from "most want to be shot" to "least want to be shot".

Vonflare > Titus > Suzune > West9

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CB - I'm waiting for your post and reaction to Maxwell's flip most of all before any shot is made.

[vonflare]

"Vonflare - You posted Maxwell's reads before Maxwell flipped, right. Maxwell gave interesting insights on both julien (now Suzune) as well as RC. Maxwell called both scum - now that Maxwell's dead, what do you think about those two?"

Considering ONLY max's interactions with them, if he were regular scum, he would be trying to get townies seen as guilty, so, following that logic, they're likely town.

But, since he's a reguscum and not vengeful, he could have been trying to get lynched so that we look at his ISO, see his scumreads (of his scumbuddies) and count them as town.

So, I can't definitively divine their alignments through their interactions with max.

[ArcAngel9]

enomis have been prodded

[Flubbernugget]

@redcoyote that wasn't part of a case on anyone it was a discredit to one of the axiom's of the case on me

My only response to heartless is a retraction of my apology to tth

[Perpetual Nonsense]

PN - You said previously you would shoot Flubber, and then later CB, wanderer and Jeanne. How do you feel about those latter 3 still? I'm very curious to hear your view on Titus, especially.

updated reads
Flubber - null based on nonsense
CB - lean scum based on interactions
wanderer - null based on genuineness
Jeanne - lean town based on genuineness
titus - lean town based on passion

[CB]

PN - You said previously you would shoot Flubber, and then later CB, wanderer and Jeanne. How do you feel about those latter 3 still? I'm very curious to hear your view on Titus, especially.

updated reads
Flubber - null based on nonsense
CB - lean scum based on interactions
wanderer - null based on genuineness
Jeanne - lean town based on genuineness
titus - lean town based on passion

Getting scum vibes from this post due to the lack of passion and genuineness.

[RedCoyote]

Also pablito's current shortlist is now: Suzune, Titus, vonflare, West9.

Please rank order those 4 from "most want to be shot" to "least want to be shot".

vonflare > Suzune > West9 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Titus

RC - If I were to make a "do not shoot" list, I'd honestly consider adding on MonkeyMan and Kari on there. Your thoughts?

I don't know, pab. I wouldn't be opposed to either choice for a not shoot. I wouldn't be prepared to shoot any of the slots that begged for a shot right now. This includes Lucky, Titus, MM's slot and Kari's slot (sort of). That said, that's a lot of players to clear on the back of this.

In any event, at this stage of the game, I still think we have a lot of other opportunities to choose from.

I will say this. I am now very much in the camp of shooting vonflare when I wasn't necessarily there before.

---

Also the fact that one of his hard stances he took was against the do not shoot list 567 makes me think that none of people on that list are vengeful.

Agreed.

---

@redcoyote that wasn't part of a case on anyone it was a discredit to one of the axiom's of the case on me

Explain more, please. I can guarantee you that you'd be my number one shot if I had the gun right now.

[Heartless]

My only response to heartless is a retraction of my apology to tth

stay classy, man

[Suzune]

hey pablito, now that you have had a taste of blood, is it my turn?

This kind of play baffles my mind. If the vengeful are running as jesters then I suppose it makes sense, but the obvious bait is obvious is hurting really hard here. Seriously, this is the point where I would lose the game because I took out people who are not team players...

Suzune - Whom are your town reads? In reading your ISO, I'm not sure you ever did get to that post where you meant to say them...

Let me be the first to tell you that reads are not my strongest area. I tend to lay back and listen to the posts and wait for something odd to strike, and then I watch the reaction. Therefore, I do not actively update reads until something new I hear changes them. Heartless is the person I pretty sure is town at this point. I think their forthright attitude and agenda keep the gain moving. A slight town read goes to Red. I was actually going to read her as scum in my initial read through of the game, but as the game went on my opinion softened. Those early feelings lingers but for now I think she is a slight town lead. Other townies include Wanderer. I am still on the fence about West.

Those who have shifted to could fall either way with more watching include PN, CB, and Titus. I am not saying they are null reads just that neither scumminess nor towniness have they posts been limited to giving me kind of back and forth tennis ball effect. With PN falling more of the scummy side post by post.

I am quickly running the well dry of patience for PN and Lucky though...

Scum don't need to regroup after a town is shot.

I actually disagree with this idea. Everyone needs to regroup after a successful shot. Why? The town needs to regroup to collect evidence that was left behind by the one that was eliminated, to evaluate the alliances that might have been formed through the fallen, and to make a new plan of action. The townies can watch the players more closely to see who fears that one revel might also revel them. This is a good period to draw out for the town in order to ascertain the players. For the mafia, it is a time to regroup, to discuss what worked and what did not work, to begin to burn bridges and cover tracks and to slowly fix their opinion on the town to prove their value and towniness, Or simply to be as town as possible so as not to draw attention to themselves.

For the town leader. To rank those you wish to be shot...

Vonflare> Titus> West (Sorry, but I do not want myself shot...with my patience thinning on some things the gun does not appeal > Suzune

[West9]

Vonflare:

vonflare comrs back bc ppl said he scum slipped

^Agreement with the scumminess of this is the only (non-Max-related) thing that I'd add to my vonflare read. Vonflare hasn't done anything to change my mind on any of points that I brought up in 641.

Suzane:

Never responded to my 925, and most of the things that I brought up there and in earlier posts still make me suspicious. The CB case was pretty weak and she backed down on the intensity very quickly; she said that she suspected Feirei and Miller for lurking, while ignoring other lurkers like vonflare, Lucky, and Jeanne; and the link between the evidence she presents on Flubber and her suspicion of him doesn't make sense. As for later posts, 863 is uncomfortably defensive, and the PN townread switches really fast (895, 1007 and 1045). There's enough self-defensiveness and weak, flip-floppy cases here for me to think that this slot might be vengeful.

Titus:

A lot of playstyle stuff that's not the easiest to parse through, with some simple reads and shotlist recs thrown in there. Only one thing (besides the whole "townreading me" thing) that stuck out to me is this little thing: I may be stupid, but 941 bothers me because in my last game, which was the first game I played with Titus, someone who knew Titus' meta correctly fingered scumTitus because she had a real awkward reaction to a joke, and that seems to be exactly what happened here.

About West:

Last time I was on the shortlist, I said that I'd shoot vonflare really quickly if I was shot. The Maxwell flip has made me a little more paranoid about my reads on both him and PN, so that is no longer my plan for shooting. I'm more likely now to do the whole "gather reads, make a shortlist, gather reactions, shoot" pattern of pab and Nacho.

About Maxwell:

his main scumtargets being my main scumtargets (vonflare and PN) make me think that, at the very least, neither are vengeful, and it's more than it was before likely that one of them isn't scum at all. I'm still sure that one of them is scum, I think that both of them are scum, but I think it's unlikely that either are vengeful.

In terms of final shot recommendations:
I still think that vonflare is the best chance to hit scum, and he's probably the safest shot, but I think that Suzane would be the best chance of hitting vengeful, and is probably the best shot. Titus comes in a relatively distant third.

[West9]

West9 - You have your plans, but I'd also like to hear your plans if you think that anyone during D3 was trying to buddy up to you during the shortlist phase.

I'm not quite sure what this question is asking, or what you mean by "my plans." If the above post doesn't act as an answer to this, let me know what you want me to respond to.

[Suzune]

West, I actually still believe in my case against CB, yet I failed to yield a reaction that I could work with. I will try it again, when I formulate a better attack strategy and collect more information.

[West9]

I didn't say you backed down on the read, but on the intensity.

[Suzune]

I didn't say you backed down on the read, but on the intensity.

Indeed, I could not stimulate a reaction that disproved or approved the choice. Therefore, I will have to try something else, I need more data.

[pablito]

West9 - You have your plans, but I'd also like to hear your plans if you think that anyone during D3 was trying to buddy up to you during the shortlist phase.

I'm not quite sure what this question is asking, or what you mean by "my plans." If the above post doesn't act as an answer to this, let me know what you want me to respond to.

Your plans of commenting on shortlist and looking back at Maxwell. However, I'd still like to hear from you who you may have felt was buddying up to you during D3 during the shortlist phase of D2.

I still think West9 is scum and is my strongest scumread, but I'm not convinced that it is the right shot today. Mainly because I would rather reinforce those who are posting and giving them a break and going after lurkerscum instead.

[Kari]

sick. will try to do something tomorrow.

[West9]

Your plans of commenting on shortlist and looking back at Maxwell. However, I'd still like to hear from you who you may have felt was buddying up to you during D3 during the shortlist phase of D2.

Oh, got it. I assume you're talking about this post I made to Titus:

I honestly thought that this is true, especially when nobody was advocating for my shot when I was on the last shotlist, but after Max's flip, I'm gonna need you to tell me why you think I'm town.

In all honesty, I said this just off the combination of my memories of nobody wanting be to be shot yesterday (pedit: AKA the lack of a "Pro-WestShot" category in the list below" and Maxwell's pushing of my top two scumspects. I had to go back and re-read the thread in order to find any specific instances.

Anti-Westshot

Wanderer - "I would to move west9 to my do-not-shoot list"
CB - "

he also has a townie mindset...there is a chance that West9 is a vengeful busting his goon partner Vonflare."
Titus - "I like his ISO and I don't see why he's up for being shot at the moment."

Maxwell

- "I don't think that West should be in that list."

Pro-NotWestShot / Pro-OtherPersonShot

Flubber - "I want vonflare pn and heartless in that order"
Kari (not an official advocacy)- "vonflare and PN still aint doing shit but prodge and post useless shit. getting tired of their bs."
Enomis (not an official advocacy)- "gut on PN...nothing else."
Heartless - "i would consider west9 a lot better of a suspect w/: a max scum flip OR a flubber town flip...add 'titus scum flip' to this list."

Not-exclusively-but-still-sort-of-Pro-WestShot

Suzane (prefers EnomisShot) - "West does not really stand out to me...He is not doing anything particularly town and his lack of active hunting make him kind of scummy."
Red - "I'm fine with any of those shots."

Looking at this, really the only Anti-WestShot person who I think might be scum is Titus (excluding Max, of course). I think scum are more likely going to be in the Pro-NotWestShot of {Flubber, Kari, Enomis}, who weren't buddying me exactly, still had scumreads on that "Vonflare/PN" combo that Max advocated.

To kind of boil my thoughts on this period down (p-edit: sorry for the mad scribbles of my mind which follow), there are two competing, contradictory paranoias I have that followed the Max flip. One is that scum is trying to get vonflare or PN shot because one of them town and that they're going to use that to paint me as scum (or because neither is vengeful and they want bussing points), and the other is that they're advocating for a NotWestShot because I'm really right about something and they don't want me to have the gun (which is silly and self-absorbed but there's a part of me that really thinks it's true)

What's keeping me from falling into a WIFOM black hole is how sure I am that there is scum in the vonfalre/PN duo, and how simple and compelling I find the idea of Suzane-vengeful.

[pablito]

hey pablito, now that you have had a taste of blood, is it my turn?

This kind of play baffles my mind. If the vengeful are running as jesters then I suppose it makes sense, but the obvious bait is obvious is hurting really hard here. Seriously, this is the point where I would lose the game because I took out people who are not team players...

Suzune, if Lucky sees himself as a jester, but Maxwell saw vengefuls as more important, it could make sense if there was dissension within mafia about how to treat the vengefuls. Maxwell slightly protected Lucky and RC D1 by trying to get millar shot instead with absolutely no reason to distract from either a Lucky/RC shot.

Judging him on his day 3 by the effort he put into his posts makes me feel as if he thought himself a dead man walking at that point so was just putting out random spew so I won't place much important into associative interactions on that day.

Yes, I completely agree and was waiting to see who would bring this up and who would try to erroneously try to read D3 Maxwell.

Also pablito's current shortlist is now: Suzune, Titus, vonflare, West9.

Please rank order those 4 from "most want to be shot" to "least want to be shot".

Vonflare > Titus > Suzune > West9

I trust CB's judgment, and it makes me further want to wait on shooting West9. I still think West is skillful scum that Maxwell blatantly defended. I believe that in no way should late-game town trust West9 and this is a shot that should be made at some time in the game. I'm still thinking about making that shot, but the process analyst in me wants to not make that shot, because taking out maxwellscum and westscum would take out two contributors to the overall discussion.

@vonflare
@Titus
If you're town and you have the gun tomorrow, what's your process for shooting the gun and who'd you most likely shoot?

[Titus]

@Pabilto, I have already told you my plan. I would shoot von almost immediately.

[West9]

@vonflare
@Titus
If you're town and you have the gun tomorrow, what's your process for shooting the gun and who'd you most likely shoot?

Should I take this to mean that you're not shooting Suzune? (also, Suzune - sorry for misspelling your name a bunch)