Mini 1663: Rick and Morty Mafia (Game Over)

[lufan131]

@Titus - How are you getting that Jingle is scum? A scum vote thief is basically a free "lets move LYLO up a day secretly" role. You also apparently think that its me, Aristo and Jingle as scum, we all decided to claim roles that would make sense to target each other before the game started and then pushed hard for a D1 massclaim?

Anyways... here are a few of my reads at this point after sleeping on it and what has been happening.

1) Jingle is town. Again, I don't see a vote thief for scum, especially with some weird shenanigans going on.
2) kthnx is scum. Apart from him being scummy just based on play this entire game, his role also sticks out badly. For him to be town it would mean town had four investigative roles at least (motion detector, weak doctor, tracker +/- role cop and morty cop) with two of them being very strong ones.
3) The only way I am alive is if
a) kthnx is scum lying about his role (I actually 100% expect kthxn to flip role cop - just scum role cop)
b) Titus is lying about who she targeted
c) lufan is lying about who she targeted
d) There is something else for scum we don't know about (redirector, blocker, etc)
4) Titus is town if kthnx is town (it would assume scum tried to kill that role)

Just looking at some very bare bones reasons that we have scum kthnx though

1) He lied about his role due to "fear of being NKed" while ignoring the fact that we had a weak doctor and a tracker claim already. It only changed when he was getting votes D2. Note him being scum one shot rolecop could solve some of the "what happened last night" shenanigans.
2) For him to be telling the truth town would need four (at a minimum) investigative role group
3) More WIFOM, but if he was an actual useful role as he claims to be... why did scum either submit a kill through KJ (blocked by Titus) or try to kill Titus?
4) If he was a role cop, isn't a massclaim just about the best possible thing that could happen D1?
5) Assuming I am town for all others... wouldn't it make sense for scum to have a role that is searching for me?
6) He opened the game with a ton of null reads and trying to create a false dilemma between Heatless and Jingle
7) He had no idea who else was voting Jingle with him at one point and had no idea why they were voting him
8) His N1 target
9) His VCA is massively scummy since he is basically just manipulating two forgone lynches to throw dirt on players

Im not moving my vote

Vote kthnx

It's HE...

[Titus]

@RBD, You have a bad habit of actually skipping a few steps of logic this game. Clearing Jingle based on his role claim alone is bad. You should also see the glaring NAR problem with Jingle's claim that I do.

Second, we look at the votes. The Jingle wagon dismantled because it was too fast, not because Jingle did anything townie. There's not much in the way of scum on Jingle's wagon either.

[Titus]

Before I forget - 393, Jingle and Rip should live [Aris]
477, Jingle claims Inventor
576, RBD says at most one scum is in Ari/Jingle, sets up hard defense of Buddy if the other falls. RBD has done no investigating until that point of either pair. Nothing explains where this thought comes from.
789, says Aris is helping with conform able night actions, yet nothing Ari has done has been confirmed.
845 Ari tries to set up a scenario where either RBD or Jingle is scum but not both.

[Rainbowdash]

@RBD, You have a bad habit of actually skipping a few steps of logic this game. Clearing Jingle based on his role claim alone is bad. You should also see the glaring NAR problem with Jingle's claim that I do.

You actually haven't really shown why he is scum yet that I have seen. Also yes, his role is pretty powerful for scum to have. It gives scum an extra player essentially if Jingle is scum. Unless there is good reason to think otherwise that role is a strong town tell.

Also how does "vote steal" and "turn vanilla" factor into NAR? Again you are saying that Aristo is scum who decided to fake claim being a vanilla-izer role in an attempt to be able to eliminate the vote steal scum role at a later point for town credit? If either of them are scum, they are going to flip the exact role they claimed. I cant believe that that was a coordinated fakeclaim between two roles. The entire basis of what you are pushing is that scum did a massive amount of coordination of what roles they had and what was claimed and how those would all interact pre-game without having any idea of what town had. If nothing else trying to lock down that much before a game starts is bad SCUM play because it removes the essential fluidity of being able to adjust well on the fly.

Second, we look at the votes. The Jingle wagon dismantled because it was too fast, not because Jingle did anything townie. There's not much in the way of scum on Jingle's wagon either.

Actually it was because it was a baseless wagon on a horrible premise. Remember that the other half of the Heartless wagon who started it said it was a dumb tell? That and players like Mainez who you replaced were saying things like "Oh yeah Jingle is scum for that tell" and then immediately followed it with "what is DC". If Jingle is scum it was luck that wagon formed since more than a few people on the wagon didn't even know what was happening.

You also are apparenty (since you are calling Elbrin town) in the camp that town has five investigative roles? Also your vote is wrong, since by the logic you are hawking Aristo being town would mean everything else you are pushing NAR on falls apart. You are trying to say scum has a redirect, so if its me/Jingle/Aristo... the only way that can be true is if Aristo is lying about his role or targets at this point.

Also where are you getting the kills from?

kthnx says he targeted you and got a d3x result. That would mean that d3x targeted you
lufan says he targeted me and d3x is only kill. That would mean d3x targeted me

Both those could not have both happened obviously.

So either

1) You were not the d3x target, meaning kthnx is confirmed scum for his result. The missing scum kill would likely have been JKed by you and KJ is scum
2) There is another redirector role and it was from me to you and then moved to d3x

I think those are your two options. The biggest concern to me is what happened to the second kill. It disappears by

1) You blocked Mafia-KJ who was submitting the kill
2) Mafia killed KJ
3) Both kills were either on or were redirected to you

We can easily take that one step further and bust #3. If I was mafia, and wanted to target you to start... why would I also redirect to you? The right play would be to redirect elsewhere. The fact that there is only one kill points AWAY from a redirector moving the vig kill to mafia target because you would want to point it at town you didn't already expect to die.

Lack of two kills means that you stopped the second kill with the JK.

Its kthnx + KJ (who you blocked from sending the kill last night) + probably Aristo but not for sure.

[Titus]

If you believe Aristo is scum, then you can vote him.

Are you really pretending to not get NAR.

Here, I'll walk you through it.

[quote=From the Wiki]The Golden Rule

Apply actions which modify other actions before the actions they modify.

Applying the Golden Rule in Three Easy Steps

Find an action (or a passive modifier, such as Bulletproof) such that its effect cannot possibly be modified by any other action.
Resolve it.
Repeat from step 1 until all actions are resolved.[/quote]

Here we have an action, Aristo's Vanillaizer that could not be modified by any other action. The roleblocks have unquestioning been accounted for. None of them hit Jingle or Aristo (we know this based on the claims already presented).
Aristo hit Jingle. If that was true, then Jingle would have been a vanilla by the time Jingle had his action.

As for not adjusting, you and Jingle have had the most mushy claims this game has seen.

We have a redirector that's missing, based on what happened n2.

Town has a lot of weak power and a high KPN. That can happen in role madness. You're doubtcasting Elbrin throughout this wall, yet you believe he's town. You and I both know the objective of town is to gather, not fracture. Yet here, you've doubtcasted a lot of people.

You do a lot of stating that my theory on Aristo is wrong and defend him, yet you put that he's scum in your final reads. Why?

My option is as follows

Scum Redirector/Bus Driver
I was redirected to Lufan or RDB.

Pure simple.

[Elbirn]

Aristo/Jingle/RBD

I think that is the scum team.

Titus is town, her analysis makes sense, and I'm gonna sheep her. Kbai.

VOTE: Jingle

For the record I hate to do this but there is a strong possiblity of me having to replace out. I'm in the process of being evicted, basically, and while I'm couchsurfing at my paw's idk how internet access is going to work, plus the internet not really being a top priority when I'm trying to find an apartment. Yeahh. Sorry. We'll see what happens?

[Rainbowdash]

Here we have an action, Aristo's Vanillaizer that could not be modified by any other action. The roleblocks have unquestioning been accounted for. None of them hit Jingle or Aristo (we know this based on the claims already presented).Aristo hit Jingle. If that was true, then Jingle would have been a vanilla by the time Jingle had his action.

So basically you are risking the entire game on the fact that you think the vanilla-izer would resolve before the vote stealer right? I could see it working a few different ways, and could easily see the mod having designed the role to resolve at the start of the next day so it doesn't function as a roleblocker.

Your final night actions are also just a bad conclusion. Lufan basically claimed that I would be her shot... so if that is true how can a scum redirector exist? Saying that they would redirect to you doesn't work because why would scum redirect a vig target to who they are already killing. Also why redirect to KJ instead of to Elbrin who targeting would basically be putting the nail in the coffin of kthnx?

Really. Play that out as me as scum, and tell me how two kills don't happen. Scum is targeting you, lufan had expressed intent to target me. How do we end up where we are if I was scum? Even more if Aristo can turn players vanilla and have it stop their actions.

I will even give you exactly what happens if that is the case with your proposed group:

Jingle steals from KJ
Aristo turns you vanilla stopping your action to prevent anything from going wrong
You get NKed
Scum redirects to Elbrin

You and Elbrin are dead, kthnx and KJ are lynch bait

[Titus]

Rick swapped himself with me. Scum tried to kill me. They wound up killing Rick.

Second, scum were aware of you likely being shot and turned the shot towards killer jester or had a bus driver that redirected my block.

So it looks like this

Rick swaps Me and Him.
Scum target me and actually shoot Rick.
D3x targets me. D3x gets Rick's name.

The above has to be true or you believe Kthx to be lying. Yet, if he was, he'd just lie and say that I came back scum.

So now we get to the scum redirector.

Either

Lufan targets you.
You were swapped with KJ due to scum bus driver.
Lufan shoots KJ who is blocked. (This will likely be verified tomorrow if this is the accurate setup, or KJ will be dead.)

OR

Lufan targets you.
Scum redirector redirects Lufan to target KJ. Thus, KJ is saved because I jailed her.

OR

Lufan targets you.
Scum redirect my action to Lufan/RBD. (Much less likely considering scum had no indication of me acting or who I would act on).


In any of these scenarios, scum know you're scum and take actions to save you.

[Rainbowdash]

Yet the falls apart in the exact same spot each time, where scum apparently decide to redirect to KJ. Why would you ever redirect to KJ?

Lets just for a second think about the targets for your hypothesis: KJ, Elbrin, kthnx, lufan. Kthnx would be out immediately because he would be the mislynch. lufan would be BP for the night. So KJ (player who has expressed some suspicion of kthnx) and Elbrin (who would be a cop threat to scum presumeably) are the targets. How does KJ die there?

Here is what probably happened last night:

lufan targeted me
d3x targeted me (dies from lufan)
you targeted KJ
KJ targeted ???? (submitted the kill)

In all cases though, why does scum ever try to redirect to KJ? It would be a low priority possibly lynchable target. It would be the WRONG MOVE if I was scum. All of your scenarios would mean scum intentionally made a suboptimal play.

Its kthnx + KJ + ??? (probably Aristo)

[Titus]

It's a sub-optimal play to try and get two kills?

Remember, scum have to try and shoot who is NOT being swapped with the bus driver. Shooting obvious town isn't going to work.

[Titus]

If you think it's Aristo, vote Aristo. Put your money where your mouth is.

You also haven't answered why you think he's scum.

[Titus]

Your theory also fails to explain the day 2 debacle or why thx just does not fake a guilty here.

[Jingle]

Titus, El, unvote me please, we're in MYLO, and I don't want to lose to a fucking quickhammer.

Jingle is scum most likely. No serial killer. Scum have redirect.

Based on NAR we conclude either a)scum redirect Lufan directly onto KJ away from RBD

OR

KJ was bussed with Lufan or RBD.

Either scenario matches with the extra heartless death.

Not inclined to lynch Lufan, kthx.

Jingle, why did you vote steal kthx? Is the loss of the vote temporary or permanent.

I targeted kthx because I thought he was scum based on the flames flip, and I thought that if I had a negative utility ability as was implied by flavor, using it on scum would have been the best option. There was the chance I was a RB or something along those lines, that could actually be useful.

I don't even know for sure that my action was actually resolved on kthx. There's a possibility there's a scum vote thief and my ability was interrupted by the vanilla-izer, which you're fully discounting. Given that I recieved a PM saying I'm vanilla now, and NAR, I'm gonna guess that the only reason this game managed to continue with my role not telling me all of the relevant information about it is that I didn't actually get to use it.

In which case, kthx is town. Fuck. So kthx has to be town. Elbirn is town. Titus is town if kthx didn't get redirected.

That's a thought, kthx redirected onto someone to make his claim seem like bullshit. Then RB Titus gets to block lufan and we still have no goddamn clue who d3 targeted. Fuck, can anyone see a reason that doesn't make sense?

Lufan is probs town. It'd be an incredibly ballsy move to claim vig that early as scum.

That leaves me with KJ/Aristo/{Titus,RBD}

I think Titus is probably town, but it looks like the common factor in all of the PoE trails is KJ. And no one is pushing him despite the universal conclusion that he's scum, which is telling.

[Jingle]

For the record I hate to do this but there is a strong possiblity of me having to replace out. I'm in the process of being evicted, basically, and while I'm couchsurfing at my paw's idk how internet access is going to work, plus the internet not really being a top priority when I'm trying to find an apartment. Yeahh. Sorry. We'll see what happens?

No worries, man. RL is more important than mafia. I hope everything works out well for you, but I completely understand if you have to replace out for that kind of reason. Good luck on the apartment hunt!

[Jingle]

It's a sub-optimal play to try and get two kills?

Remember, scum have to try and shoot who is NOT being swapped with the bus driver. Shooting obvious town isn't going to work.

Wait, why? Why do they have to try to shoot around the conftown busdriver? Hitting d3x is actually optimal for scum here.

[Titus]

It's a sub-optimal play to try and get two kills?

Remember, scum have to try and shoot who is NOT being swapped with the bus driver. Shooting obvious town isn't going to work.

Wait, why? Why do they have to try to shoot around the conftown busdriver? Hitting d3x is actually optimal for scum here.

No. If D3x was alive, he would be painted as the scum bus driver and be the easy solution.

[Jingle]

Except the rolecop inno on him. There was 0% chance I was letting him get lynched before kthx.

[Titus]

Stating someone is not North is not that much of a clear. You also act like you are in control of the lynch. Only the facts are in control.

[Jingle]

I think we both know I'm aggressive enough to shout that particular lynch down, Titus. And I'll refer you to the gigantic fucking wall war I had with RBD yesterday about why d3x was town.

I find it much more likely I'm the designated myslynch in LYLO and kj was the one making the scumkill than that kj was an innocent bystander. He was a much easier mislynch for scum if nothing else, so he shouldn't have been the shot regardless. I could see you, to stop the new perspective from shaking up the game. I could see El, he's been functionally conftown since D1. Hell, kthx makes a modicum of sense if scum was worried about a guilty. But KJ being shot is just stupid. That would be scum removing outs from their own lynchpool.

[Titus]

Right. I was shot by scum Jingle. D3x bussed himself. So having scum redirect a kill onto me is worthless.

Having Lucian committed seppuku is not helpful to if a kill goes wild, she would be lynched.

They want to avoid protown Elbrin due to the fact d3x will switch with him and funny business can also be blamed on him from D2.

That leaves KJ and kthx as choices for the second shot. Kthx can match flavor and s weak. KJ does Lord knows what else. Given the number of players alive, her prediction is very likely to happen.

[Elbirn]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: KillerJester

[Titus]

Why the change Elbrin?

[Elbirn]

At the moment I'm thinking KJ submitted the nightkill, and you jailkept him. D3X the busdriver swapped himself with RBD, who Lufan targeted for a kill.

[Titus]

That's not possible as Kthx would not get a Rick result on me. D3x had to swap with me.

[Elbirn]

Wait, haven't we (you) determined that there *must* be a scum redirector?

If yes
Scum redirected Lufan's vig shot off of RBD (why?) and onto Titus
D3x swapped with Titus
Titus Jailkept KJ, who submitted the mafia NK

Hence,

KJ = scum
Titus = Town
RBD = maybe scum, blabla *insert drivel about WIFOM here*