Open 31 - Yoguraimee C9 (Game Over!) before 470

[mneme]

Mod Note:

Muerrto is not a secret player.

*laugh*

[YogurtBandit]

Im not a cop.

[Khelvaster]

Unvote, Vote: Muerrto

I was getting confused between this game and mafia 474, where I had intended to vote Muerrto. Sorry about that.

Unvote

And why exactly wouldn't the doc claim here? I am a 3-month-old player, and I can tell you why (barring any extreme stupidity) YB definitely won't claim cop,

Simply? You'd be wrong.

Possiblities:

YB is a cop. YB should claim cop.
YB is a non-cop townie: YB should -not- claim cop.
YB is scum: it's complicated. I see no reason to give YB advice here.

This would imply both scum went cop. If both scum claimed cop, then we win. Since there were 3 cop claims, YB can't be cop, assuming optimal play from everyone.

Um, no.

We will not have a doc claim if we run up a townie.

We will not have a doc claim if we run up a scum and he decides not to gambit a doc claim figuring on WIFOM gambit instead (ie, if scum will always false-claim doc, then scum should not claim doc).

We will not have a doc claim if we get four cop claims -- at that point, there's no reason for the doc to claim, nor will there be.

1. If we massclaim, the doc will claim. If not, we might run him up instead of a townie.

2. You and I both know that the scum will claim doc because, if nothing else, he will out the real doc too. We will have to wait for a real counterclaim before proceeding with the lynch--otherwise, it might very well be that we end up lynching the doc.

3. We won't get 4 cop claims. This would make scum lose.

If YB isn't scum, I'm guessing you are, actually -- your play has been wild, random, and not actually useful for catching scum, moreover, you argued against a tactic that has drastically improved our odds. But newb is at least as likely, and unlike YB, you comitted, which is significant.

I have never played an open game before. I have only played minis. Only after having seen your first analysis did I fully grasp how different these two are. I immediately recanted

No. It doesn't matter who xyzzy, vend, and j-man investigate, as long as they investigate cops.

A single investigation will give us two innocent and one guilty. The two cops who agree on real cops. The one who disagrees is scum.

Oh yeah, you are right. I was thinking that if people A and B were to investigate C, and C investigates B, but A is scum, you wouldn't get a guaranteed scum result. I just tried to formulate that as my counterargument, then I realized that what you said was right (as long as nobody tries investigating themselves ).

And...your "trap" on xyzzy? feels more like scum backpeddaling to me.

If anyone had fell into my trap, I doubt you'd be saying this. I can't really defend myself against this suspicion of yours except to say that I am a townie and I was trying to trap xyzzy. There's nothing really I could use as evidence that wouldn't be WIFOM.

[Vendagoat]

I'm not back yet and the internet connection at the hotel is sporadic at best, but I'm here damnit. So now that we go the YB claim, we are looking for scum not in the cop claim crowd, correct?

[Sefer]

So now that we go the YB claim, we are looking for scum not in the cop claim crowd, correct?

Correct. And I currently think YB is the most likely scum in that crowd.

Vote: Yogurt

[Khelvaster]

Mod: Votecount, please

[Erg0]

Your wish, etc...

Vote Count

YogurtBandit 3 (xyzzy, mneme, Sefer)
Vendagoat 1 (YogurtBandit)

Not Voting 3 (Khelvaster, Vendagoat, J-Man)

4 to lynch.

[Khelvaster]

Let's wait to see what YB has to say before hammertime.

[J-man]

Non-cops: mneme, Sefer, Khelvaster, Yogurt Bandit

so if we are going to lynch one of these players i am most for lynching Sefer i think i should get that out there before anyone goes and hammers YB because i don't think he is the play today.

its 3AM here so im not going to write out all the reasons because it wouldn't make any sense anyway, i will hopefully do that later... i guess later today until then think very carefully about your vote this is when it really counts, if we don't get a lynch today we go to lylo effectivly, thats assuming that the cop thing goes as planned and the doc doesn't save anyone.

i think thats intelligent anyway i'll probably re-read that tommorow and smack myself but those are my candid thought for you guys to tear apart.

[YogurtBandit]

I honestly think J-man is the lying cop because he claimed so early, looking for ccs'

unvote, Vote:J-man

[Khelvaster]

Yeah, YB. Nice defense you posted there...

That was a really, really scummy post. You just tried to deflect an imminent hammer, instead of defending yourself. You also want to try and bait J-man into OMGUSing you and lynching you, thus making us suspect him d2. Yeah...this really doesn't fly with me. GG, YB.

Vote: YogurtBandit

1 down, 1 to go.

[Erg0]

Final Vote Count of Day 1

YogurtBandit 4 (xyzzy, mneme, Sefer, Khelvaster)

J-Man 1 (YogurtBandit)

Not Voting 2 (Vendagoat, J-Man)

The town meeting has reached a consensus. Despite his mild protestations,

YogurtBandit

is dragged from the town hall to the nearest tree, and hanged from his neck til he be dead. A post mortem search of his pockets reveals naught but lint and some yogurt. Allegations of stolen yogurt aside, it looks like he was just a normal

townie

. Uh oh.

It is now Night 1. All night choices are due to me by midnight (edit: EST) on Thursday the 9th of August.

[Erg0]

Nothing takes it out of you like lynching a descendant of the town's founding fathers, and you all sleep soundly until morning. One of you oversleeps quite severely, though. Attempts to rouse

xyzzy

from his silent slumber are in vain, and the discovery of two neat holes in his head explains why. The badge in his breast pocket reveals that he was one of Yoguraimee's finest, a dedicated

Cop

.

Day 2 has commenced. With 5 players alive, 3 votes are required for a lynch.

[Vendagoat]

I am so angry right now I can barely see straight. I let a major slip go because I thought a new player had made a mistake. I actually bought into his act of a stupid newbie. God damnit! I can't believe that j-man, you actually drew me in and hooked me.

Yah a real newbie alright, friggen role-fishing scum.

I...

I'm going to go cool off now, before I just write a string of expletives.

FUCK!

[Sefer]

Khelvaster is scum; I'm the other townie.
Just for the heck of it, cop results?

[Sefer]

Oh, and

Vote: Khelvaster

. We're at Lylo, so it's best not to vote until you're certain that someone is scum. I'm in that happy position.

[Vendagoat]

I investigated Xyz because I have suspected him since day one and from the fact that I truly did believe j-man's claim of cop. I'm still pissed about this, I literally feel used.
Xyz was innocent.

[Vendagoat]

Oh and sefer you realize you could possibly be giving the scum the win here? You sound sure and all, but fast lynching in LYLO is normally a scum tactic, from my experience.

Others can tell me I'm wrong but, that just looks bad.

[mneme]

Vendagoat: Sefer is playing correctly, at least from the perspective of not making an instalose vote.

Khel claimed townie. If sefer is a townie, sefer knows that I'm the doc (I am. Yay, I've just been outed -- or maybe Khel really is a townie and I was outed yesterday) and that therefore, Khel is scum.

If sefer is a scum, sefer knows that khel is a townie, and that therefore I'm the doc.

Either way, Sefer's vote cannot cause Sefer to lose via a quicklynch.

That said, lynching a townie is the wrong play today.

If we lynch a townie, that's a 50% shot, and we then have to make the right guess (after I get killed tonight) on which "cop" to lynch even if we guess right -- a 25% shot to win (from my perspective, as the only confirmed non-scum).

If we lynch a "cop", we either lose (lynch the real cop), or win (lynch the scumcop, the real cop investigates a "townie" while I get my ass killed protecting him, lynch the remaining scum the next day).

Therefore, we must lynch a "cop" today or we're in L^L*2. Play correctly (I intend to) and we're in L^W.

Vend, J-man -- convince me. Sefer, Khel, who of our "cops" do you find more believable and why?

Oh, I protected J-man last night.

[Sefer]

I find J-man more convincing; his actions go along with things I've seen newbies do in the past, and I'd be surprised if he could fake it that well from the scum side. Vendagoat's outburst (at the start of the day) seems pretty contrived, though I might think otherwise if someone can point me to another example of him acting like that.

Unvote

. mneme is right that the 50/50 shot from lynching a cop is better than the 25% shot from lynching town; I hadn't considered that. Also, at this point, we need all the innocents to vote together to make a lynch (since a correct lynch will lead to scum losing, I doubt any bussing will occur). Since mneme is confirmed innocent, we can't make a correct lynch without him. As such, he's in control right now; no one should vote until mneme makes a decision (well, the townies could vote each other, but it won't change anything, and the cops might as well vote each other now and get it over with, but no other votes should be placed until mneme has voted. No townies voting cops or vice versa, and no one voting mneme unless they really want to be strung up).

[Khelvaster]

I love how Seifer wants the scum to win by putting his vote on a townie (which there ought to be 3 claims for) and not on the nonscum cop.

I am so angry right now I can barely see straight. I let a major slip go because I thought a new player had made a mistake. I actually bought into his act of a stupid newbie. God damnit! I can't believe that j-man, you actually drew me in and hooked me.

Yah a real newbie alright, friggen role-fishing scum.

I...

am scum, because I have been a consistant scumbag

^^^^^corrected

First of all, that post of his makes no sense. I don't see how J-man hooked him in or anything.
Look at my case against Vendagoat:

Vendagoat first votes saying something is "more wild than rational." This is the shittiest excuse for a lynch I've ever heard. Vendagoat then realizes xyzzy is at -1, unvotes, then revotes in 24 hours, still without a decent explanation.

He then tries to make a case against J-man, when there was only 1 cop claim, that because J-man claimed cop in an OPEN game, he was scum. Seriously, these are a heap of bad excuse lynches. Maybe if vendagoat were trying to be pro-town, he would have aknowledged that he was wrong. But no, he keeps on in his stubborn, scummy fashion.

I have a massive problem with the way that, after a post talking about how bad J-man is, he says

(outside of game tip)
Giving up is almost an automatic lynch. I've read it dozens of times and had it done to me once as well.
(ok back to game)

Vendagoat is a fucking lunatic, and he is a crappy scum too. I suggest we lynch him on the spot.

I'm going to go cool off now, before I just write a string of expletives.

FUCK!

Wow...this has to be the lamest thing I have ever seen.

[Vendagoat]

My cop tells throughout the game.
This is the start. At the time j-man had just claimed and the whole fiasco had just started. At the time I was very suspious of him because why would a cop claim without reason? We were all talking about it and I tried to intimate I was a cop by the use of the all cap both. So that if he was a newbie who just made a mistake, he had someone to trust. He started to come around and it seemed everyone trusted him. I tried to keep him calm and was even feeling good because I helped a newbie out, something I really didn't have much luck with in other games. Mneme can confirm that one.

ok there are 2 reasons that i claimed cop
1. because this game was not moving anywhere it needed a jump start that was enough provoking for me.
2. since there are 2 cops we could effectively sweep the whole populace for mafia in several short nights Lynch's aside, this is assuming that both cops are sane ;P but if we corrodinate our moves we can find out whether or not we are aswell, i hope you guys see my point.

1. So jumping out in front of the train and yelling stop is the best idea?
2. Yes and we could use BOTH cops, not just have one throw his life away needlessly! Which is why no self respecting cop would ever just out himself for no reason.
I can see and understand your point, but try and see it from ours. The game is lagging, a few players are attempting to get things rolling and BAM here you come out of left field. For no reason you stand up and scream "hey guys look at me!" well, we are. You got yourself into this situation, now convince us as why to believe you. especially after the mighty big hole you've just dug.

Here's the second bit, I told sefer straight out a cop, me, did not feel like claiming.

Sefer as for your idea, I don't like it either as one of the cops might not feel like claiming. If thats the case it will have served nothing. Even if they both do claim, people are still apt to suspect them based on all the normal variety of claims, so at the end of the day, we are pretty much at square one. Your idea is perfect for an end game scenario, because when you can eliminate variables this game becomes a simple logic puzzle. Even with that I have read and almost been in a game, where someone spit in the eye of logic and just voted whatever and it cost them the game. So Sefar I say let's hold off on the claim thing until we can eliminate a few variables. I hate saying this, I really do, we have to go on hunches and feelings. I hate that, so much.

I myself am not exactly happy with how mafia is basically just talk and hope and am trying to work on something as well to make it a bit easier, especially on new players.

This bit is to show how I myself got caught in to his story. We didn't know about Xyz yet and I thought I found a kindred spirit. This post is where I really started to think he could be a cop. I tried to help him, keep him talking and such. Since no one else had claimed cop yet and I still didn't want to claim, I wanted him to stick around by talking, so that I had a partner.

I consider J-Man's story entirely plausible for a fresh-off-the-boat newbie error -- much more likley than the idea of claiming cop first thing as scum. Is it a mistake? Sure, though a single cop coming out in a two-cop game with a gaurunteed doc is actually more sensible than you might think.

If its a newbie error thats one thing. God knows I have made my fair share of them. The problem is, this early in the game you are looking for inconsistence's and what he did is a big one. Lynching any claimed role (except mafia ) is risky, but it happens in more games than I can count. I'm willing to come off of him, but I need another target or at the very least a better explination. Look J-man, calm down take a breathe and explain why you claimed cop so early again, then tell us who you suspect, in detail and we can go from there.

I don't think the other cop should claim -- nor do I want to know who J-man intends to investigate tonight.

Agreed on the first point, but I am wondering about the second. Look you say you believe him, and the cats already out of the bag then, why wouldn't you want to know who he will investigate and the result? Minor FOS.

I do not want to lynch J-man today -- the odds of him actually being a cop are just too high.

They are high and I agree it is entirely plausible he is a cop, but the way you get people talking in this game is with votes and he's starting to talk again, which is good for him if he is the cop. This will keep him alive if he can convince others and at the same time help the doc know who to protect and ultimatly help us find the scum.

In other words j-man, like I already said, keep talking. Show us why we should believe you and not just take you at face value. Show us who you suspect and why and lets go from there. Take a deep breathe first though and relax.

This right here is probably the biggest tell. I still don't like a claim, but I love a second day claim as there is much less chance of a screwup. Why? Because I would have an investigation and with less people I could just turn what is left into a logic puzzle. (example) I=A investigation=B If A and B is innocent then scum must be in last three players, now add in the second cops investigation and you can narrow it down more. Myself and a cop did this exact thing in my second newbie game and we won.

Thoughts on this from YB and Vendagoat? You guys have mostly been lying low.

I've been rather busy at work and confess I haven't been paying too much attention to this game, or any of the others for that matter.

Simply put, I do not like the claim today idea as there is just too many ways it could be screwed up. I think a day two mass claim would make drastically more sense as there would be less variables, I know that is cold, but that is how I feel.

Now as for the reason I am so pissed, I've since calmed, is that I completely and totally bought into j-man's "ineptitude". It was all a lie and I feel betrayed, I mean at the end of the day this is just a game and all, but I haven't been played like that in some time. If you want me to show how and why I bought into this I will, but I'm still a little mad and its rather embarrassing. I'll do it if you want, I'd just rather not.

I'll come back with more later, blargh man, just blargh.

[Khelvaster]

My cop tells throughout the game.*snip*

Only a scum would need to go around displaying coptells.

Now as for the reason I am so pissed, I've since calmed, is that I completely and totally bought into j-man's "ineptitude". It was all a lie and I feel betrayed, I mean at the end of the day this is just a game and all, but I haven't been played like that in some time. If you want me to show how and why I bought into this I will, but I'm still a little mad and its rather embarrassing. I'll do it if you want, I'd just rather not..

I highly doubt that you have anything meaningful. If you did, you would have posted it now. *Waits to see what kind of crap comes out of vendagoat.* You are inept--inept at being scum, that is. J-man is cop hands-down.

[Sefer]

I love how Seifer wants the scum to win by putting his vote on a townie (which there ought to be 3 claims for) and not on the nonscum cop.

Reread the first post. There are only two townies. One is dead, and the other is me. Therefore, I know you are scum.

[mneme]

This is awful.

Both "cops" have made significant errors over the course of the game. For that matter, both seem to have not read their PMs.

Vendagoat has been very fake today -- but J-Man hasn't even been here.

If Khel is scum, he's a bus-o-matic. OTOH, both of the "townies" have had serious votes on or from both the "cops" over the course of the game.

All that said, I'm inclined to think J-Man is scum. If Vendagoat is scum, he's scum with Sefer (he's tried to lynch Khel, and I don't think it was a bus), and Sefer's the player I'd most guess -not- to be scum. If I lose, so be it. And Vendagoat is right that J-Man is much more experienced than he's presented here.

vote: J-Man