Open 601: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[pistachi0n]

VOTE: you have any ideas because that tree looks like it's judging me.

[pistachi0n]

Another problem with claiming specific nights, aside from scum using it to manipulate the town, is that it also tells scum who's going to be useful later in the game. The night 1 cop and doc are going to be vanilla townies tomorrow, so that means the pool of useful people for scum to kill is going to shrink with every set of claims and we could potentially miss out on the information we'd get from night 2 and onward.

I do think everybody should claim "cop" or "doctor." I don't think people should claim nights unless they're a cop and either a) they found scum or b) someone who they investigated and turned up town is about to get lynched.

I'm a doctor.

[pistachi0n]

Plus the scum are forced to kill the doc otherwise they basically let an IC alive.

No they're not, because then they know that the doc is now a vanilla townie and there's still a pool of people who will be useful in the future they can kill. Claiming nights is helping scum by narrowing down who still has a power role.

There's an 8% chance actually, anyway Reubus you target yhai.

So there's a 92% chance there is no double doc on night 1.

We also have 2 cop claims for night 1. If there's an 8% chance of two docs and an 8% chance of two cops, there's a .64% chance of two cops and two docs on night 1. (.08)x(.08)=(.0064) (Please please tell me if the math is wrong.)

VOTE: wgeurts

[pistachi0n]

Would like more thoughts on kyndy's post actually to make sure I'm not crazy.

Yeah, it's wishy-washy. It sounds like she's reluctant for any kind of claim. I've said why I don't think we should claim nights, but claiming roles alone benefits town more than scum. The wishy-washy might just be her personality though.

More objectionable is her 154. Sheepy, she's just unvoting to go along with everybody else. She says "since we all agreed," well, we didn't all agree, she's just going along with what the biggest voices are saying.

[pistachi0n]

If a cop checks a doc, the following is possible: The doc is town and the mafia decide to kill the doc. We have no information on day 2.

If the cops check each other, the following scenarios are possible:
1. A cop dies during the night. The doc who should have protected the dead cop is scum.
2. Both cops survive the night.
2a They claim that the other cop is town. They are both town (or both scum but that's very unlikely).
2b They claim that the other cop is scum. At least one of the two is scum.

PEdit: Exactly.

Yeah, cops checking cops is a better idea for tonight. I'm suspicious of anyone who thinks cops checking docs is a better idea.

VOTE: kyndy101

If 2a, we should lynch one of the docs tomorrow.

[pistachi0n]

So you think kyndy tried to manipulate us?

Yeah. I don't believe there are 3 n1 cops and 2 n1 docs (with 2 n1 cops/docs I was still skeptical but thought it remotely possible), I'm thinking kyndy's 174 asking the cops to check the docs is because she knows one of the cops is scum.

Also in 233 she says we agreed not to lynch people. When did we agree to this? I know the possibility of a no lynch was tossed around but most people seemed against it.

[pistachi0n]

I think you speculate too much. Kyndy is pretty new to the site. If she was scum, I wouldn't expect her to actively manipulate town's strategy.

Kyndy has been on the site longer than you or I.

I meant that we all (or most of us I guess) agreed to not lynch the N1 claimers.

My bad, sorry for the misrep.

[pistachi0n]

My thoughts on NM:

Doesn't claim in 210, even though the consensus was to claim role. That could be explained by he was trying to catch up and hadn't realized that's what we all were doing. He continued to refuse in 214 and 216, then in 217 said he was reading up now.

In =23551#p6965810]221 he claimed N1 cop. That was the first post after he read everything. I interpreted that as he thought you were trying to trick him at first, he seemed surprised when everyone had claimed after all.

So, he was being cautious at first. Why should he claim if he hadn't seen for himself that everyone was claiming? Town points for looking through the thread and making sure instead of gullibly claiming immediately.

I think his night claim was genuine and makes it even more likely that one of the N1 claims is scum. NM, who do you think is the fishiest?

I'm going to go with my original thoughts and

UNVOTE:
VOTE: wgeurts

[pistachi0n]

Uuuuuughh I screwed up the link, sorry.

[pistachi0n]

VOTE: Fromage

Just throwing shit at everyone

Isn't it a little late to be voting just to throw shit at someone?

308 is a good post though.

Fromage, as for your NM case:

First there's Marcrell. He has shown a tendency to flake as scum (wgeurts, please don't forget to provide us the meta). He confirmed his role PM. But when the game started, he never actually posted. He was online at least twice after the gamestart. He was online after he had been prodded.

I agree with this.

Imo town could answer the question like this: "lol I'm doc" or "What? Why should I claim so early?".

That's wifom. It was reasonable for him to not claim until he had read the threads and verified that what you were saying was true.

This is very interesting. He doesn't believe me. Why doesn't he believe me? Certainly, I've asked him a trick question. But that doesn't make me a notorious liar.

He doesn't believe you because it's mafia. For all he knew, you could have been trying to confuse him. Has he ever played a game with you before? There's nothing scummy about looking back and verifying before claiming.

There's no town motivation for his fullclaim.

I agree it was unnecessary, but what's the scum motivation?

[pistachi0n]

Pistachion instead of agreeing with others who do you think is scum, please provide three names including those that you expect to most likely flip mafia.

Wgeurts, MarioManiac4, Fromage.

Mario is one of the n1 cop claims--which automatically makes him more suspicious, because we all agree that 3 is unlikely. He claims n1 cop in 52, was the first to do so. I'm reading the later n1 cop claims as "wtf? I'm an n1 cop too, there can't be this many of us, this is fishy." Looking through his iso, most of his posts are filler or restating what other people already said. His two votes were sheeping other wagons to get inactive players to talk, he hasn't posted any real scumreads. I think he's my top scum-read now.

I'm suspicious of you because it was your idea to claim nights. I've said before why I think it's a terrible idea. Also you're pushing the "don't lynch claimed n1 PRs tonight" the most, and it seems like you're trying to save your skin. Even though I'm the only one who's really suspicious of you, if town starts talking about lynching other N1 PRs, that automatically makes you more of a target.

Fromage had a weak case on NM. I don't understand it from any angle. He's basically scumreading NM because he didn't get his way. So NM didn't claim immediately. He read the thread beforehand, that is reasonable, the case on NM is terrible.

[pistachi0n]

So, since most people are agreeing not to lynch an N1 claim:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Fromage

[pistachi0n]

Also please name your top three town reads as well, the more links we can build between people the better as the game goes on.

So, the night claims have worked out horribly. They're made town confused, and that's exactly what scum wants. We're agreeing not to lynch any of them day 1, and at least one of them has to be scum. It's a perfect agreement for scum.

Insanity is my top town-read for understanding that night claims are madness. 332 is town because she's aware that the top lynch-candidates for people who didn't claim N1 are easy lynch-bait for inactivity. She's questioning people's reasoning. She's assertive but she keeps an open mind.

Persivul is also a town-read. I agree with 378 where he said that the focus on game-breaking seems innocent at first but could be scum trying to distract. I also like that he posted detailed reads very quickly after replacing in.

Mathdino. I liked 41 where he showed some flaws in the plans being tossed around. I like that he doesn't want docs to claim night. I disagree that cops should claim night, but I understand where he's coming from--it would be a little harder to verify if a claimed they found scum without claiming night beforehand. Later in the game he focuses more on scum-hunting than theory. I like 365.

[pistachi0n]

It would also be great if you explained why the case on NM is bad.

Because it comes down to Fromage not liking that NM checked to make sure people were actually claiming before responding to Fromage's prompt. I thought that was very town.

[pistachi0n]

Because it comes down to Fromage not liking that NM checked to make sure people were actually claiming before responding to Fromage's prompt. I thought that was very town.

No it does not. It comes down to NM not believing that his predecessor had already claimed. I thought that was very scummy.
Besides, my case is also about NM's dumb fullclaim, his egotistical reasons for the fullclaim and his lack of scumhunting.

-Why should he believe you when you said his predecessor claimed until he looked at the iso for himself?
-How does the fullclaim benefit him if he's scum?

[pistachi0n]

If that is the case, could the proponents of massclaim and stats over traditional scumhunting please advise why they think that is the best strategy to adopt?

It helps a little bit because it's highly likely that whichever group has the most claims has more scum. I still prefer scumhunting, but it narrows the pool a tiny bit. The claims without nights don't

hurt

town.

[pistachi0n]

pistachi0n, do you merely find Fromage's NM case objectively wrong or actually scummy? What are your thoughts on the other posts Fromage has made in this game?

I mostly find it objectively wrong. I was town-reading him before that, I like most of his posts from early game and the one he made on wgeurts in 435. Some of the N1 claimers are way scummier and I'd rather lynch them. I'm reluctantly waiting until tomorrow.

[pistachi0n]

pistachi0n, do you merely find Fromage's NM case objectively wrong or actually scummy? What are your thoughts on the other posts Fromage has made in this game?

It helps a little bit because it's highly likely that whichever group has the most claims has more scum.

Not necessarily.

Not necessarily but probably.

[pistachi0n]

Fromage's case on wgeurts is good, Fromage's case on NM is bad, his other posts are mostly good. Therefore he's the best lynch. Are you kidding me?

Ugh, I know. It's bad.

You are not the best lynch. Wgeurts, Reubeus, and Mario are the best lynches. But most of us have stupidly agreed not to lynch N1 claims so I have to stupidly go along with them because there's no chance of lynching who I want to.

I mean, it's not like it's lylo. But this buys scum more time to distract us.

[pistachi0n]

Well, we have 5 days left. We're going to lynch

someone

, right?

[pistachi0n]

pistachi0n, what are your thoughts on Metal's slot then?

53 was scummy, both because he gave himself an excuse to lurk early on and because he was wondering who Mario was going to investigate. He didn't seem interested in asking people stuff later on, which made the question to Mario even scummier.

In 67 he agrees with general sentiment of the game.

Made a claims list in 80, seems like the kind of post he'd make if he's trying to appear town, but there's no content that can't be found from reading back through the thread.

I agree with 98 and 100.

102 and 166 were filler.

Didn't like the no lynch proposal in 264.

However, most of the things MC said that I thought were scummy were more passively scummy, like, could be either scum or lazy town. So I was null reading him. And miih isn't as scummy. 557 was great.

Also, when you asked this, I was voting Fromage but mainly scumreading wgeurts. Neither of those were likely to be lynched, which is why you asked me to consider MC. But now I'm comfortable with my vote where it is. I'm also scum-reading Fromage more than I was when I was last active because of the deal with wgeurts. I'd think Fromage is less scummy if wgeurts flips town, actually.

[pistachi0n]

And titus, indeed I don't have a clue why people are wagoning Jazz. I gave my vote to Fromage today however and if we lynch town I get his tommorow.

How does the deal work out if you die (whether town or scum?) This question is for Fromage.

[pistachi0n]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[pistachi0n]

VOTE: Jazzmyn

[pistachi0n]

Persivul shouldn't claim unless they get to L-1.

[pistachi0n]

I don't think Mario should be off the hook for his investigation of NM. I'm considering the possibility that it could have been a mafia gambit where they sacrificed NM so Mario could get town cred.

[pistachi0n]

Always?

On day 1, he didn't vote for you because he wanted to hammer. On day 2, he didn't vote for you because NM was confirmed mafia and everyone was voting for him. On Day 3, it was the same scenario with Jazzmyn, except he was the one who investigated. Do you have baggage with the other head?

[pistachi0n]

I don't think Mario should be off the hook for his investigation of NM. I'm considering the possibility that it could have been a mafia gambit where they sacrificed NM so Mario could get town cred.

IIRC mario investigated NM at the last-minute urging of YHAI. YHAI said he was investigating jazz. So, in this scenario, mario would be giving up BOTH of his scum partners N1. That seems highly unlikely. Actually I'm a little suspicious that you bring this up.

I'm not saying it's definitely what happened, or that Mario should be lynched today. I'm reading him as more towny than before he got us the mafia result on NM. However, I do not think he should be considered conftown.

[pistachi0n]

Just vote Titus as we all know you're town.

You seem eager.