Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:40 am

Post by sangres »

In post 297, Gold Saucer wrote:Like this is obviously about the specifics of the relationship between zmuffin and pie, otherwise what you wrote in makes no sense

-b

No. Pie was very town in the post Muffin called an overreaction. I would expect Muffin to see why. I would expect Muffin as scum in that position to view keeping that fight going as very very advantageous to him.
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:41 am

Post by pieguyn »

Spoiler: @REGFAN
In post 278, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:The exact issue I have is with your reasoning behind the ffyer town read and your scum read on us (and call of our pushing being awful), ignore the 'definition' of push for a second I have trouble you seeing Ffyers question directed to Empire a town-tell of any sort and similarly have trouble believing the two posts that we made would lead Town!You to "awful/scum", this continues to be a p large concern I have with you.

usually I find ignoring context to be a massive scum tell. it is usually relatively easy for scum to BS reasoning that ignores context because it looks good and is generally correct logically; in other words, very hard to argue against/attack. town, on the other hand, usually factor everything into account when forming reads - they don't push things when the surrounding evidence indicates otherwise. ergo, when someone pushes something and the context very clearly says otherwise, it is likely it is just bc they don't give a shit about context and are pushing it anyway, ergo, scum.

this is where my issue with your initial posting lies. as far as I could tell, you were just BS'ing there. that's why I pushed it strongly - I thought it made flat-out no sense for a town player to think, and thus was a strong scum tell. it didn't matter if it was just a weak read. if I see someone pushing a read that looks like BS, I'm going to point it out, regardless of strength.

I really don't see how this isn't obvious by now.

In post 278, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:I did fully read #230 and I don't think it's relevant I've commented on this already, a) Nacho hadn't posted at that point and has been very obviously busy site-wide so claiming that your town read stems from something that involves him doesn't add up and if it revolves around pre-game discussion between the two of them it wouldn't rule her out making a throwaway minor comment stating that she can see your posts being awkward too (It's not a stance she'd be scared to state as scum) and I disagree massively re; you claiming that her being confident is the basis for your town read since it's the opposite that I'm reading town from her. I'm finding the reluctance to make a 100% call on our alignment and her explanation for it genuine.

so you think ffery sees Nacho say this:

Nachomamma8 wrote:Pieguy is the biggest threat on that list by far: she's thorough as hell when she gets reasonably sure on a scum read, and she's ridiculously transparent and passionate but doesn't fall into bad arguments when emotional like many people do. She does think that her scum and town game are horribly obvious and as such has a tendency to push back pretty hard on scumreads on her (this has a tendency to stick on experienced players more than inexperienced ones). Her weakness lies in that she can doubt herself sometimes, so as long as you don't suspect her for dumb reasons, you don't make too many obvious mistakes, and you give her reasons to want to read you as town, you can put her off a couple of days even if she has a scum read on you. She would be my top choice of a nightkill by far in this playerlist.

then entirely decides not to give a shit and scum read me anyway? in a game where she's outright hydra-ing with him where he would, almost certainly, not support that kind of play coming from her?

your logic here is completely oversimplified. people playing in a hydra aren't going to just do whatever they want without regard for how their partner would approach a game.

I also disagree with the idea that 93 would have been a "throwaway comment" as scum. the obvious conclusion there is that she either was agreeing with the scum reads on me as town, or was pretending to as scum. the fact that it was only one post does not change this: it's still a player agreeing with a potential scum read. if ffery and I hadn't had that interaction after I first started pushing you, do you think she would have just entirely forgot about it and started town or nullreading me later? I don't think so; if she's scum, she thought it bc she thought she genuinely would as town. (the way you write it off as a throwaway comment, btw, again ignores the context and I'm starting to get the feeling this is more a result of difference between our playstyles as opposed to anything.)

and I really don't give a shit if you're reading her based around the "opposite" of her being confidence. I saw her town confidence in her opening posts and town read her for it. you approaching the read differently from me doesn't indicate that either of us is wrong and/or scum for pushing it; it indicates we're approaching the read differently.

that you cannot see this is, put bluntly, really awful and part of why I thought you were just arguing semantics here.

In post 278, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:Except that #55 does state that her difficulty here is with the setup and not the play? Bork effectively asked her how this game differs from other games and she stated that it was based on the setup, her popping in on #102 going "yeah its about play too" makes plenty of sense for scum to add - gives them another excuse to hide behin. And fucking again, my scum read on her is a weak scum read, I'm waiting for her to actually respond to my questions to her (Especially since I'm willingly admitted that I might just be having difficulty following her thought process via her location) and actually give reads and content (Empires waiting for specific things from her too) so you constantly stating "you pushing her looks scummy" is another massively-untrue statement.

I strongly disagree with this line of thinking. her adding that postmortem doesn't indicate that she's scum making up setup confusion and then proceeding to lie about what said confusion is about. the obvious explanation here is that it's about both, and she just didn't mention it the first time.

and again, I didn't really care whether it's a strong read or not. I care about the *reasoning*. behind it. it's the same thing as the point about me active lurking. if it makes no sense for a town player to think, it's likely to come from scum, even if they supposedly don't feel strongly about it.
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Post Post #302 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:42 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

In post 300, sangres wrote:I would expect Muffin to see why.


This is obviously the thing I've been asking you to explain yourself on and you're deflecting doing it

-b
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:42 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

In post 302, Gold Saucer wrote:
In post 300, sangres wrote:I would expect Muffin to see why.


This is obviously the thing I've been asking you to explain yourself on and you're deflecting [instead of] doing it

-b


ebwop -b
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:43 am

Post by sangres »

In post 289, Quilford wrote:
In post 284, sangres wrote:
In post 276, pieguyn wrote:the advantage of that is he wants to look like he has a point here and hope people accept it as truth without actually thinking critically/checking what actually happened.

People usually can't get away with pushes like that. Regfan doesn't have a scum game where he tries to get away with pushes like that.

These kinds of odd conclusions that presume the other players in the game are mindless idiots (including the one I pointed out in #133) are really stopping me from being able to put pieguyn in the townpile which I kind of have been wanting to do based on her emotions when reacting to GB

I think Pieguyn making these sorts of conclusions is a stronger tell of confirmation bias than it is of pieguy being scum.
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:46 am

Post by sangres »

In post 302, Gold Saucer wrote:
In post 300, sangres wrote:I would expect Muffin to see why.


This is obviously the thing I've been asking you to explain yourself on and you're deflecting doing it

-b

I didn't know that was the explanation you were looking for. I'd rather hear from RBD before explaining why, although I guess the explanation doesn't get more sophisticated than "I think Muffin is town and I don't think strong emotion is one of his blind spots".
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:47 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

In post 300, sangres wrote:I would expect Muffin as scum in that position to view keeping that fight going as very very advantageous to him.


Also why in particular is this true since it relies on negative associatives between RBD and both pieguy AND GB for this to hold any reasonable amount of water

-b
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:48 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

Consider my vote non-random and at least exploratory at this point

-b
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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:51 am

Post by sangres »

In post 306, Gold Saucer wrote:
In post 300, sangres wrote:I would expect Muffin as scum in that position to view keeping that fight going as very very advantageous to him.


Also why in particular is this true since it relies on negative associatives between RBD and both pieguy AND GB for this to hold any reasonable amount of water

-b

It requires GB and Pieguyn to both be town, which isn't that much of a stretch at all.
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:51 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 288, sangres wrote:
In post 286, pieguyn wrote::/

GB maybe town.

Why?

a few reasons. I'm pretty sure a lot of the reasons I had for pushing them could as easily be attributed to fundamental differences in the way we've approached this game. from my interactions with him, it feels like he focuses very specifically on individual posts and what people are saying, whereas I tend to focus more on determining the context/motivation first and reading the posts with it in mind. the Yuriko read is an example of this - he's getting caught up in what she's saying, pointing out inconsistencies etc. whereas I don't give a shit bc I think it's obviously just as a result of her being confused - and I wound up thinking he was scum for it. same with this whole "push" bullshit bc he had made it a point to say it wasn't a strong read, but I don't care; his motivation was clearly to pressure me.

him saying "I only said that once and I felt very very very strongly you were scum" I think is a town tell. that's essentially what I always wind up doing as town and I figured he might have been doing the same thing here; this falls in line with that (he only came up with that bc he was sure I was scum and then dropped it).

I also think I misinterpreted the strength of his reads (and I'd like to apologize if you took offense to it
@GB
) - I first thought it didn't look like he was doing anything to reconsider them, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being.
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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:54 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

It's also not something that anyone should take for granted at this point in the game?

Like what do I do, as a town player, that legitimately wants to cut through that stuff and doesn't know the alignment of either player?

I don't know how you can possibly discern between that and "keeping the fight going".

-b

p-edit: above @sangres
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:55 am

Post by Quilford »

In post 304, sangres wrote:I think Pieguyn making these sorts of conclusions is a stronger tell of confirmation bias than it is of pieguy being scum.

Of conf bias? Not sure how they're a tell of that. Can you explain?
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:57 am

Post by pieguyn »

also,
@Regfan:
, I'd really like if you could consider my above post for a moment bc I'm pretty fucking sure most of our reasons for scum reading each other can be attributed to this - and I think this is obvious if you read my latest wall with that in mind. it happens that in this case that I'm pretty sure this would also be obvious if you check some of my recent town games, since I think it's a pretty big part of how I have above-average town reads and I'm actually pretty proud of it (Newbie 1570 comes to mind).
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:01 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

In post 309, pieguyn wrote:him saying "I only said that once and I felt very very very strongly you were scum" I think is a town tell. that's essentially what I always wind up doing as town and I figured he might have been doing the same thing here; this falls in line with that (he only came up with that bc he was sure I was scum and then dropped it).


Having a hard time parsing what you're saying here

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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:02 am

Post by sangres »

In post 310, Gold Saucer wrote:It's also not something that anyone should take for granted at this point in the game?

Like what do I do, as a town player, that legitimately wants to cut through that stuff and doesn't know the alignment of either player?

I don't know how you can possibly discern between that and "keeping the fight going".

-b

p-edit: above @sangres

You don't know the alignment of either player, but you should be able to take a pretty educated guess at that point and react accordingly.
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:03 am

Post by sangres »

In post 310, Gold Saucer wrote:It's also not something that anyone should take for granted at this point in the game?

Like what do I do, as a town player, that legitimately wants to cut through that stuff and doesn't know the alignment of either player?

I don't know how you can possibly discern between that and "keeping the fight going".

-b

p-edit: above @sangres


you're responding to nacho. this is ffery. my first post of the morning, and I don't want confusion about who's who right now.

Look at your own reaction to their brouhaha. IMO there's a difference.
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:08 am

Post by Rancid Broderick Drake »

"Quick" response:

In post 262, sangres wrote:Do you think that overreacting is a scumtell for Pieguyn in particular? More importantly, what about pieguyn's reaction felt fake?

Actually, I'm just going to pretty much copy paste everything I've written to Nati so far about pieguy since the vast majority of stuff I've written to Nati is about pieguy. (Also, I don't really like the angle you're pushing here, but maybe I'll get to that later)

It's not that "overreacting" is a scum tell (and the fact you're simplifying it to that when it's pretty clear that's not what I was saying is one of the things I don't like about this stance you're taking on me). It's that pieguy's reaction to gentlemen looked like aggression for the sake of aggression. It didn't feel like a natural "hehe, there goes pieguy again, up to the usual stuff" reaction to gentlemen's early stance. gentlemen's reads weren't all that different from the vast majority of the active players at the time, we were four pages into the game and, more importantly, pieguy's take on the whole "posting elsewhere" thing felt way out of proportion for what it was - a fairly standard observation that was less of a "pieguy is definitely scum, look at this solid evidence" thing and more of a "this is interesting and requires a satisfactory explanation if pieguy happens to be town" thing.

There are a few reasons I thought this was bad.

First, I thought pieguy was making a really poor attempt at emulating aggression here rather than taking a genuine stance; it actually looked a bit like the mentality I sometimes have as scum. Sometimes when I'm scum, I'll think about how to react to something in a way I might do so as town (for example, in a really aggressive tone or with a slew of insults or whatever) but I might ignore the larger picture (like whether my reaction was in line with what was actually going on at the time and what I was responding to, etc etc). I think pieguy mostly knows the cues people are looking for and what pieguy was doing was basically an attempt at hitting those cues... except that it made no sense given what pieguy was actually responding to and what was going on in the game at the time.

Second, the reaction was entirely unlike what I'd expect from pieguy as town and far more in line with what I remember of his push on cephrir in serum&steel. When I expressed a scum read on pieguy in touhou upick 3, for example, the reaction was basically "I acknowledge your reasoning and you're right but..." - which is the sort of thing I would have expected from pieguy-town here. Also, since I think ffery brought up Xenosaga, it's also entirely unlike the reaction to me there, which was (at least at the beginning) rather sensible (like, I didn't think it was town, but it at least was coherent in the sense that the reasoning given matched up with the conclusions and there wasn't any real stretching) and more inquisitive than authoritative ("why?" rather than "this!").

And third, it simply made no sense. For example, pieguy was attacking gentlemen's bork read (because bork hadn't done anything that couldn't be faked) while simultaneously pushing the idea that ffery was town for asking a question of empire. gentlemen's reads were not vastly different to, say, my own reads, but pieguy had no issue with my reads, instead focusing entirely on gentlemen's apparently fake reads. Also YOU know exactly why I think pieguy's response to the "posting elsewhere" thing made no sense; pieguy KNOWS that sort of thing doesn't necessarily come from scum, regardless of "context" (which gentlemen couldn't have had any idea about unless they're psychic and I do not believe Regfan is a psychic... but that would actually explain why he was blushing a lot when I met him because I did spend a majority of the time thinking about what I wanted to do to him and it was not PG-rated). Like, I understand why pieguy doesn't like it being used against him, but it's far from scummy and I am having trouble believing he would take the stance he took as town, even if he is somewhat OMGUSy.

Also, while I'm at it, some other things I've written to Nati about pieguy...

pieguy took a really long time to write his responses to gentlemen - like, long enough that he had to have been thinking, scrutinising and revising his responses (even accounting for the length of the walls). This isn't necessarily scummy - maybe he was just doing a lot of thinking or something - but it is something I think scum are more likely to do than town (I think pieguy especially is the type of player who is more likely to write up a heated response than a carefully manufactured one) so this stood out to me.

I've been thinking about pieguy's appeal to me in #127 and, while on the surface I think I could see him making an appeal like that to me as town (because I know pieguy tends to want me to town-read him when he's town), the fact that the reason he appealed to me was because he was worried that I might sheep Regfan didn't sit well with me. If anyone knows anything at all about me, it's that I don't sheep. Ever. Even when I'm sheeping a la xenosaga, I'm still not actually sheeping. Like I literally don't even think I've ever read another person's case and thought, "this person is making good points I agree with and I could follow him onto that." Also Regfan/Empire aren't exactly a big fish in this game, anyway (though I guess pieguy apparently thinks differently so whatevs).

I have thoughts on #132 but first I want to know whether the fact it was almost a direct copy of this was intentional or not.

#168 is the first post by pieguy that I actually thought looked town and is one of the main reasons I'm currently thinking he might be town. Similarly, I am not sure he's capable of writing #230 as scum.

I think, if pieguy is town, he should drop the back-and-forth stuff with GB and focus on something else because the more he writes stuff about it, the more I see it as him using it as a crutch to produce content. I don't think his gentlemen read (ignoring the recent couple posts) is all that great for a number of reasons (least of which is that the vast majority of the gentlemen arguments are about gentlemen's read on pieguy and not about much else they've done) and his reads outside of gentlemen look rather weak from what I've seen.

Some questions for you, nacho:

- Why do you think I should have been town-reading pieguy as of post #119? Or at what point do you think I should have been town-reading him? For the record, I'm still not really town-reading him. Though I think it's a lot less likely he's scum than I previously did.
- Did you actually think my issue with pieguy was as simple as "overreacting"?
- Do you think I'd push pieguy for something as simple as "overreacting" if I were scum?
- Does ffery agree with your read on me?

PS: Just assume all wall posts are Nati

-Nati
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:08 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

In post 314, sangres wrote:You don't know the alignment of either player, but you should be able to take a pretty educated guess at that point and react accordingly.


I'm having a really hard time accepting that you think it's inprobable that town-muffin would do something other than immediately clear pie based on stuff that happened on ~page 6 that also, imo, was somewhat limited in content at that point.

This is the type of stuff muffin threw at me in touhou upick 2

you're responding to nacho. this is ffery. my first post of the morning, and I don't want confusion about who's who right now.

noted.

Look at your own reaction to their brouhaha. IMO there's a difference.

Specifics?

-b

p-edit: didn't read yet
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:12 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

In post 317, Gold Saucer wrote:Specifics?


Actually cancel that, possibly not even relevant. I want to know what was scummy about Muffin's reaction in a bubble, with any of the following scopes:

1) context specific to pieguy
2) muffin's relationship to pieguy,
3) muffin in general as a player

Rather than making this about me.

-b
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:13 am

Post by Rancid Broderick Drake »

Also because I'm really bad at scum and I don't wanna ruin RBD's first scum game, Nati is taking over posting duties from whenever she gets back today since I am really
lazy
busy.

Also, Nati is probably a whole lot easier to read than I am, anyway
, which means less work for me so win/win


-Nati
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:15 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 289, Quilford wrote:These kinds of odd conclusions that presume the other players in the game are mindless idiots (including the one I pointed out in #133) are really stopping me from being able to put pieguyn in the townpile which I kind of have been wanting to do based on her emotions when reacting to GB

also, this is actually exactly how I caught Mala in that TM game.

she was blatantly pushing shit that was objectively false for pretty much the entirety of D2. and she almost got away with it. the only reason she didn't was because I pushed her really really hard over it - and even then a lot of the ppl who were actually on the wagon were ambivalent over it until she scum slipped at the end.

it's also the majority of what ppl like Nacho do as scum. it's a really really common scum tactic to just make up stuff and hope people don't realize that's what you're doing. I'm not sure why you disagree.

p-edit:
In post 278, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:Do I think you "lying about the definition" is a strong point, no? It's not really what I was trying to say either and it's not a phrase I've used since then
(Which was a post I made when I was very very very confident you were scum, something I'm not amymore)
, I've tried to explain this several times since.

^this, namely the bolded, which was in reference to .

at first I thought he was just BS'ing there. after seeing this, I think it was town motivated in that it only happened bc he felt really really stongly about me being scum. when I'm town, and feel strongly about a scum read, I usually have very strong urges to deconstruct every single thing they post and explain why it's coming from scum. so it often winds up happening that some specific things I point out are overly nitpicky and I point it out anyway. I think it was coming from that kind of mindset. the fact that he dropped it later reinforces it - he pointed it out bc he thought he was onto something, then dropped it when he stopped thinking it made sense. plus, in general, it fits with his conviction re: the push on me.

sorry in advance if this isn't clear, I don't really know how to explain it.
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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:16 am

Post by sangres »

In post 317, Gold Saucer wrote:I'm having a really hard time accepting that you think it's inprobable that town-muffin would do something other than immediately clear pie based on stuff that happened on ~page 6 that also, imo, was somewhat limited in content at that point.

I'm not saying I expect Muffin to "immediately clear" Pieguyn, I'm saying I'd expect that his conclusion would he that pie is riskier than not.
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:18 am

Post by sangres »

It was limited in content, yes, but it was enough content to make an alignment-indicative call. I would not have had as much of a problem with it if Muffin thought the reaction was null, either, but calling it scummy seemed the most unbelievable and also had the greatest advantage for scum.
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:19 am

Post by sangres »

In post 317, Gold Saucer wrote:Specifics?


You challenged both of them about statements/stances, which is in keeping with your feeling that town wouldn't *know* either of their alignments.. What Muffin did looked more like taking sides.
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:19 am

Post by Gold Saucer »

In post 320, pieguyn wrote:at first I thought he was just BS'ing there. after seeing this, I think it was town motivated in that it only happened bc he felt really really stongly about me being scum. when I'm town, and feel strongly about a scum read, I usually have very strong urges to deconstruct every single thing they post and explain why it's coming from scum. so it often winds up happening that some specific things I point out are overly nitpicky and I point it out anyway. I think it was coming from that kind of mindset. the fact that he dropped it later reinforces it - he pointed it out bc he thought he was onto something, then dropped it when he stopped thinking it made sense. plus, in general, it fits with his conviction re: the push on me.


This is essentially a definition of what confirmation bias is, which I think is a super null tell (town want to be right, scum want to lynch their target)

-b

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