Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[Gold Saucer]

Wow did I leave a whole bunch of sentences unfinished and shit on that

goodnight

-b

[Soft-spoken]

yuriko is a decent policy lynch, but im not seeing any substance in a yuriko push fyi

[BBmolla]

im pretty behind guys

[Soft-spoken]

i was wondering when youd pop back in, WB

[Soft-spoken]

i mean the whole deal where yuriko seems like she is afraid town will lose because she thinks its scumsided. that was a marginal towntell imo... its just... its hard to defend someone who is so chronically inactive.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

I've got internet working on my computer again!

Reading through now; I'll likely be around the next 30ish minutes.

[Gold Saucer]

yuriko is a decent policy lynch, but im not seeing any substance in a yuriko push fyi

I hear you but everyone is pretty much on their own wagon right now and that's making the gamestate extremely stale

-b

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Alright caught up.

I'll be getting to the Piemetalinks tomorrow after work (Probably drunk after post-work drinks), I know that Empires found some of her recent posts town, I kind of agree on some of them but I'm hoping the meta-read-through will help me get a stronger read there because I still have a

lot

of cocerns with her play here.

Fferrys comments re; Her not entirely understanding where Nachos coming from in Post 552 reads very genuine and town.

We're leaning more and more towards voting Yuriko with every prod-dodgy post she makes (While still being active elsewhere) - we both think it fits with more with scum being unsure on how to proceed in the game given all the town-reads / strong and active players in the game, also helps that we've got town-ish reads on most of the other players here which points towards her being likely scum via PoE alone. I want to see her catch up post (Especially because Empire has a few things he's looking for around her 'content' posts to get a stronger read) before moving though.

@Nacho -

I

sort of

know what you mean in Post 555 re; Muffins posts also making sense as scum which is personally why he's a really weak town read of mine at the moment but I don't think he's impossible to read (I do think I'm batting something like 4/4 in reading him?) and I think you stating that you're pushing him because you can see how the stance he took would be beneficial to scum is

very

harsh (Especially since this logic could be in turn applied to your push on him being very beneficial as scum) and ignores how it all transpired? I still don't grasp your vote and want those three questions answered when you get a laptop.

@Soft -

The "SIGH" by Quiford in Post 523 isn't unusual for him at all - when we were combing through his meta for TM I remember seeing similar comments from his town game, I think he even did something similar inside the team mafia game (Where he was town). That said neither Empire nor myself have liked the way he's handled his read on you nor have we liked his lack of scumhunting. Also not seeing the "Yuriko calling this scum sided" a town-tell, read the post of hers in detail again; she listed several things that point towards it being town sided so her conclusion doesn't match what it should have been at all - it actually reminds me of what a lot of scum did at EM "Woah this setups scum sided we're fucked" type of things to seem town.

@Gold (Particularly Bork) -

Would like your exact read on Molla right now specifically what did you make of his reaction towards SS's 'townslip'. Also plz get Tammy in here more. Also re; Yuriko Empire told me to hold off on her till she posts since she has some meta that he wants to try and read her.

Starting to get a bit wary of GB.

Want this explained in detail please - think you've seen both Empire/myself as scum/town enough to know that we're town here.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

Disagreeing about this interaction gives me pause.

I don't believe pieguy's #112 was as town as you and nacho seem to be making it out to be (whatever "paranoia" you're saying was present in pieguy's later posts that made you think town, that post was

at best

null, if you don't have any issues with how little sense it actually makes) and I don't think the part where you're saying the paranoia peaked (which I guess is referring to the reach-out to me) felt particularly town (least of all because it felt entirely unlike how pieguy has approached me in other games, ignoring the fact that pieguy should know I'm unlikely to sheep someone if I didn't arrive at the same conclusion myself).

These things that you're calling town are part of the reason I don't think your pieguy read is genuine. If you'd said, say, a couple of pieguy's later posts were more town-looking, then I might agree. But his earlier posts? Nope. Even if I were to disregard any issues with it, there's nothing in those posts that made me think, "yeah, this is more likely to come from pieguy as town."

Also, this issue that you apparently have with our disagreement here; when did it start becoming an issue? Because you didn't seem to think it was an issue at the time, unless I'm forgetting something, and you only now seem to think it's an issue after nacho started pushing me.

You say you think we're scum. Do you think we're partners with pieguy?

No, I think you being scum would imply pieguy town.

It was too early for pie to believe that a tunnel argument would be taken seriously/too early to make that call. Deciding to respond to a very, very soft push like that as scum is making a move that is pretty fucking hard to back off from and it's a gigantic risk because either it works or it doesn't.

I saw it as him overreacting in an attempt to shake off the suspicion building up on him. I don't know that he knew it would lead to a tunnel argument, and I don't think it's something he would be scared to do as scum if it was an attempt at emulating something.

What lacks in my play for it to be game-solving?

The solving-the-game part, I guess. So uh. Everything? What have you actually done as of this post? I don't even think you have a scum read outside of me.

There's a playful humor that underscores everything town-zmuffin posts usually, even when he's verbally eviscerating someone. It was there at the start but it faded pretty quickly. Do you know what I'm talking about in his usual town play? Do you see what I'm talking about regarding his play so far here?

I don't know that it's ever been true (now or in the past) that I'm always playful as town (or that when I'm scum, I'm less playful). A large part of when and where I choose to employ humour depends on my feelings about the game in general at the time. I rarely employ humour when, for example, I'm attempting to make _actually_ serious points.

What was the last town game you played with me? Serum & Steel? Do you think anything about my mastin push there, for example, was humourous?

in Touhou IN, there was Varsoon vs. me right at the start

<snip>

Yeah, OK...

You (and nacho) seem to be suggesting that my post #119, before anything had even taken place (as in, before GB had even seen your #112 and responded to it) is bad because I "took a side". And since you're now also pushing this line of reasoning, I'm just going to nip this awful shit in the bud.

There was no fucking argument to take sides on.

I commented on your god-awful push because that's what it was; a god-awful push. In the first place, if you thought pushing Yuriko was scummy, then you should have been attacking other players who also thought this (like, oh, I don't know, the person voting her?) and if you thought his bork read was scummy, then you should have also been attacking anyone else who formed the same read. But you didn't mention them, and went straight for an argument with the person voting you because... they mentioned that you'd been posting elsewhere, even though that clearly wasn't the primary reason they were voting you.

But ignoring that and the other issues I had with your initial push on gentlemen, you (and nacho) seem to be either mixing up or misrepresenting the sequence of events. gentlemen hadn't responded. I didn't comment on the strength of gentlemen's at the time non-existent arguments against you because, surprise fucking surprise, it was non-existent (as was the second point you made against him in this post). I commented on your post and your post alone. Conflating this with what I did in bork's IN is just dumb (and, by the way, you've actually used against me as scum before, so if I were scum and you were town, I'd know you know about it and avoid anything that could be perceived as similar like the fucking plague).

So nacho's dumb argument that bork's take on it was town for looking at both sides of the argument and criticising both sides and I'm scum because I only attacked pieguy is fucking dumb, and part of why I think nacho's bullshitting his read on me. At some point he also suggested instead that I was egging gentlemen on or something, but that's just as bad an argument because (a) IF #112 is as town as nacho is suggesting it is, then gentlemen might have seen that too and what I said about it wouldn't have influenced their opinion on it (like it apparently didn't influence sangres's opinion on it, but oh, I might have influenced gentlemen because they're pure shit at the game or something), and (b) I didn't need to do anything as scum there if an argument was inevitably going to break out (I could have, for example, just refrained from commenting on it, which is probably what I would have done if I actually were scum - at least until an argument was actually happening) - nothing I said there could have possibly influenced anyone's opinion on that post.

You suggesting this is similar to me taking sides in an argument in that bork-game is equally dumb because (a) even if it were, taking sides is part of mafia anyway (and it's not like you've never seen me do that as town), but (b) there were no sides to take on the 1v1 because

there was no 1v1

.

-Nati

[Gentlemen Bastards]

I think I've typed up a Town (S->W) list about three times now this game and deleted it because there are too many people that I'm not confident about placing (Which is the opposite of what I'd expected pre-game, I thought I'd be able to easily read and place several players without an issue notably Quilford and Molla and my reads on the both of them are exceptionally weak at the moment), kind of needs to be remedied.

@Muffin -

Ignore Nacho for a minute. Nacho can properly explain the following when he gets to laptop; a) What he's currently reading town about Pieguy, b) What he read town at the time of that post, c) How that leads into a scum-read on you, d) What and why he strongly disagrees with the arguments brought up against Pie when he gets to a laptop. Really hoping that'll clear up a lot there because I'm really not getting his push on you either. For now I'd much rather you focus eleswhere, what's your reads on the rest of the playerlist and some reasoning behind it would be tops. Also your read on Fferrys posts too.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

Actually, I don't have time to do a full catch-up atm.

Skimmed recent stuff.

Haven't had a chance to synch with Nati over the last couple days because I've been busy and she apparently doesn't have a PC atm, which sucks because I don't think Nati agrees with me on much but whatever.

This is where I'm currently at:

I sincerely doubt bbMolla is scum. I don't think he's a good enough player to say some of the things he's said in this game in the manner he's said them as scum. In particular, the string of posts that started at #200 is a big part of where my town read on him comes from. If Yuriko is scum, this is even more the case. I think his play in general looks pretty unreserved and a lot of his posts have clicked with me.

I think bammy is town. No one particular post comes to mind here (I pretty much just stopped talking to nati about them because it ended up me citing a bunch of post numbers and saying they looked town and I don't think Nati disagrees with this anyway). I've liked a lot of the direction of bork's questioning and the way he and tammy are thinking about the game is mostly in line with the way I'm seeing things (and the slight differences here and there don't really concern me).

I think gentlemen is town. I didn't like all of the arguments gentlemen was making about pieguy in the early stages of the game, but I thought it was coming from a town mindset. I talked to Nati a bit about #151 and some of the reasons I think that's more likely to come from Regfan as town than Regfan as scum. Also, for a lot of the same reasons I like bammy, I think the lines of questioning from them and the stances they've been taking have looked town. I think I'm OK at reading Regfan, too. I think I've seen his scum game twice and got it correct both times, and outside of the first game we played together, I don't think I've ever had much trouble figuring out when he's town either. I think Nati disagreed but we haven't had a chance to talk about why yet.

I didn't think the 'town slip' by soft-spoken was all that solid, but posts like 502/504 made me feel better about him. I don't really have an issues with his play and the way he's approaching reads looks genuine enough.

I've already talked about pieguy in depth. I currently think pieguy is more likely to be town than scum, in part because I doubt he's scum with sangers, in part because of a couple select posts that I'm not sure he's capable of as scum. I would feel better about him if I'd liked any of the pushes he's done this game but uh... outside the gentlemen push and some issue he brought up with me, I don't actually think he's made any pushes.

I don't really remember anything quilford has done. I think I had a vague, weak town read on him at some point but I don't remember why. Meh.

There's very, very little I can find in sanger's ISO I've actually liked. I don't mind some of the questions ffery has asked and that's about it. I think nacho's push on me is the biggest load of shit I've seen since that one time I had that bad curry and I really don't think he's that bad a player that he'd push the angles he's pushed this game as town. I don't like ffery piggy-backing it in the way she's been doing it; it feels more like she's trying to force herself to agree with nacho's push on me than coming to the same conclusion in a natural way. This is one of the reads I really want to hammer out with Nati when I get the time since I don't actually think Nati is paying close enough attention to what they're writing but whatever.

And I think I've already mentioned the things I don't like about Yuriko's early posts. Since then, promises to catch up and no delivery. I don't really feel any different about her now than I did before. Haven't had a chance to talk with Nati about this, either.

[sangres]

Nacho and I both will probably want to respond to your post in detail, zmuffin. In initial readthrough, though, I notice a couple instances where you have who posted what a little confused.

- 112 was the post where Nacho decided pieguyn was town. I was still trying to figure her out (and also think about GB) as their argument accelerated. I'm not sure I could point out a specific post where the read solidified, because the fact that Nacho has a strong read here influences my thoughts.

- The "dumb" argument about the difference between bork's approach and yours was *my* dumb argument, not Nachos.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

Actually, that's somewhat ordered but I didn't mean for it to be.

Also,

-Nati

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

- The "dumb" argument about the difference between bork's approach and yours was *my* dumb argument, not Nachos.

OK. That just makes me feel stronger that you're piggy-backing Nacho's push in an unnatural way because that actually makes no sense.

-Nati

[zMuffinMan]

also, completely unintentional account-slip because i'll likely be limited to phone posting for a bit from tomorrow and i fucking hate logging in and out between accounts on phone

-Nati

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

also, completely unintentional account-slip because i'll likely be limited to phone posting for a bit from tomorrow and i fucking hate logging in and out between accounts on phone

-Nati

Please don't post on my account anymore, Nati.

--muff

[Gentlemen Bastards]

@Muffin -

I'm going to pretend that whole wall of reads was dedicated to me as an answer to my Post 659 despite the fact there was only a minute between our posts. I agree with the majority of your reads there but I do want a few explained:

1) A more detailed elaboration on the town read on Molla would be appreciated ie. What about that series of posts

exactly

are you reading as town (We do agree entirely that if Yuriko is scum that Molla is town though, this is something I mentioned to Empire after he made Post 200 ect.)

2) Would like you to ISO Quilford and let us know what posts of his gave you the townish feel, also would like your thoughts on his SS interaction and scum-read.

3) What about SS's 'townslip' isn't 'solid' to you? More specifically what about my town read on him do you disagree with in Post 543.

4) Which posts (Links/Quotes would be nice) gave you get the impression that Fferry was piggy-backing Nachos scum-read/reasoning on you so much? There may be a few instances where she's shown slight agreement but for the most part I've got the opposite impression from her play so far, feels more like she has some qualms with your play but none of them seem to be based around anything similar to Nachos and I find her stance much more understandable?

[sangres]

- The "dumb" argument about the difference between bork's approach and yours was *my* dumb argument, not Nachos.

OK. That just makes me feel stronger that you're piggy-backing Nacho's push in an unnatural way because that actually makes no sense.

-Nati

Like I piggy-backed your Mastin push in S&S?

By the time I made that post, my pie-read was getting pretty solid. What wasn't solid yet (and still isn't) was my read on you.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Alright I'm heading to bed, I'll be back tomorrow night for the meta reading hopefully not

too

drunk.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

A more detailed elaboration on the town read on Molla would be appreciated ie. What about that series of posts

exactly

are you reading as town (We do agree entirely that if Yuriko is scum that Molla is town though, this is something I mentioned to Empire after he made Post 200 ect.)

The 'series of posts' was pretty much everything he wrote on p9. Starting with #200. The way he is thinking about the game as he catches up on it looks less like a guarded player trying to come up with fake shit to say and more like a town player blurting out natural thoughts.

I also just don't think #200 was fake.

His other posts haven't made me feel any different. He's being pretty open about thoughts on the game and the way he's forming reads doesn't feel like scum. *shrug* I don't really know what you're expecting with detail here. I don't think he's playing like scum.

2) Would like you to ISO Quilford and let us know what posts of his gave you the townish feel, also would like your thoughts on his SS interaction and scum-read.

IIRC it was his reaction to the pieguy-you thing. Mostly the way he was trying to play facilitator felt town at the time, I think. So posts between #135-#165. Quilford's one of the people I wanna solidify a read on anyway, so I'll probably look back over his ISO in a bit more detail when I have time.

3) What about SS's 'townslip' isn't 'solid' to you? More specifically what about my town read on him do you disagree with in Post 543.

It's more that I'm not writing it off as a town-slip when it isn't necessarily.

I could, for example, imagine a scenario where he did roll scum and thought "wow, this is different to EM" and decided to play it up as a way to 'town slip'; but, if that were the case, I think it and the way he talked about it afterwards (like 502, 504) might have come across as a little more robotic and less natural.

4) Which posts (Links/Quotes would be nice) gave you get the impression that Fferry was piggy-backing Nachos scum-read/reasoning on you so much? There may be a few instances where she's shown slight agreement but for the most part I've got the opposite impression from her play so far, feels more like she has some qualms with your play but none of them seem to be based around anything similar to Nachos and I find her stance much more understandable?

The qualms she has against me are qualms that only became qualms after Nacho started pushing me. The issues she has with my early pie read, for example, should have been issues she had when the actual posts took place if she thought the things she says she thinks about pieguy's posts. Instead, they weren't issues until after Nacho started the attack on me. Like she made some list of things about the game that stood out to her at some point earlier in the game and none of it was the things she apparently thinks are wrong with my approach to the pieguy read that happened before she wrote that list.

What it looks like to me is Nacho going "hey, I'm gonna push muffin" and her going "OK, I'll support you if I see an opportunity..." or something along those lines. Which would explained the half-assed meta argument and the angle she's pushing with regards to my reaction to pieguy v you compared to bork's (where one happened before it was actually a thing and the other happened after...)

I'm really too lazy to actually pull up the quotes; just compare her posts pre-nacho entrance to her posts post-nacho entrance for an idea of what I mean, and also just look at the things she's actually saying about me. Her major arguments are that bork-me comparison thing (actually nonsense), a meta argument (which, apart from being a really poor analysis of my meta, also ignores that every time I've actually been scum against her, I've abused the fact that I know what she thinks I'll do as town/scum) and that I don't agree about pieguy's early posts being town (meh). And none of these were issues before nacho decided I'm scum.

Like I piggy-backed your Mastin push in S&S?

What does this even mean?

-Nati

[sangres]

What does this even mean?

My point being that I took a leap of faith based on having a strong town read on you (which was correct) and your known ability to read Mastin with an insane level of accuracy.

Why would you expect me to put less stock in my hydra partner, who shares my role pm, with a known ability to read you and Pie with great accuracy?

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

You're not putting stock in it. You've suggested you have independent reasons to think I'm scum that are different from nacho's. And those reasons look less like things you concluded based on natural thoughts about me and more like things you're making up after nacho decided to call me scum.

[sangres]

You're not putting stock in it. You've suggested you have independent reasons to think I'm scum that are different from nacho's. And those reasons look less like things you concluded based on natural thoughts about me and more like things you're making up after nacho decided to call me scum.

I can see that interpretation of my posts, actually. I didn't have a comfortable read of you on my own, and was trying to figure out what it was that Nacho saw in your posts that led him to vote you.

[sangres]

[Soft-spoken]

i would appreciate it very much if people who cite post numbers instead of describing or quoting the context.... use the post link feature because scroll wheel clinking for a quick reference is much easier than halting my read of a wall of text and looking for it.