Mini 1653: A Game of Pokes - game over

[Kop]

VOTE: FF

[Kop]

If FF flips town, and Fitz is the only death over night. That leaves Massive, Aristophane, and Wicked and myself. I am not scum, so it will be out of either Massive or Aristophane because if Fitz flips hider then that confirms that he was telling the truth about Wicked, so he would confirmed town.

[Kop]

And if they don't shoot Fitz, and he claims that he hid behind me, that would almost confirm that I am town. But I want to see what happens after lynch flip and over night before I give it a bit more thought about something that I have.

[Iknal]

Day 5
Deadline is 23/06/2015 1930 UTC +10
(expired on 2015-06-23 19:30:00)

Vote Count 5.4
Aristophane(1): havingfitz
Formerfish(1): Kop
Not Voting(4): massive, Aristophanes, Formerfish, Wickedestjr

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

And the only Night actions that can hit a hider hiding are the night actions on the person he's behind.

[Kop]

So if he hides behind someone and doesn't disclose it does that mean we won't know ?

[Aristophanes]

So if he hides behind someone and doesn't disclose it does that mean we won't know ?

Iknal isn't gonna tell is, so yes, that's what it means.
If he did it'd be a little bastard.

Fitz, hide behind Kop/FF.
Massive, protect Kop/FF.


This is our night actions.
If the death is:
Only Fitz, lynch Kop/FF
Both, lynch Massive

We can do this!
I may vote FF at some point soonish.

[massive]

my attack is perfectly valid and you haven't defended it.

My defense is this: If I'm not the doctor, you have no explanation for no kill on N3 that doesn't involve wacky "scum skipped a kill" speculation.

The argument from my end was and ALWAYS was "I have never hammered a scum buddy." It follows logically since my argument at the very start of D4 was "there's no amount of towncred that replaces a scum buddy." You did a very nice job of hunting up a game from, what, 2004?, that showed I could hammer a scum buddy. Shouting "LIES" at a failed memory from 10+ years ago is a little extreme, but since it's the ONLY thing you have, you gotta run with it.

And this:

Ridiculous. You have no reason to suspect me.

Why wouldn't I? You're obviously working very hard to shoehorn a case onto me that you yourself claimed started due solely to POE. You're patently ignoring the rest of the town, despite the fact that even if I AM scum, there's still another scum out there that you've already mentally cleared.

You aren't trying to solve the game any more.

------

I'm not signing up for any harebrained night action scheme. They have a roleblocker.

[massive]

My re-read notes, such as they are:

899 - Kop is town?

906 - yeah Kop is town.

913 - surprising how much of fitz's case against random is actually him soft-defending vikingfan.

922 - more evidence towards Kop as town

985 - FF is town?

1021 - aristo soft-defends vikingfan

1063 - fitz starts counter to vikingfan

1092 - if fitz is actually a hider, how does he have no idea what might have happened N3? Isn't one of the obvious solutions "scum targetted him but he was hiding"? Oh right he didn't hide at all. And there is a reason to ask about Random's shot ... if he didn't believe Random was only one-shot.

------

My current range, from scummiest to towniest:

fitz >>>>> fish > Aristophanes >>>>> wickedest >> Kop

[havingfitz]

Unvote

for the moment while I think.

The short story version of why I voted Aristo is because VCA and POE pointed me to him.

The POE is....6 players left. 

• Two I know are town (me and Wicked).
  One I have read as town the entire game (fish).
  That leaves 3. 
  One has claimed Doctor (need to chew that over more).
  That leaves Aritso and Kop.
  

Kop at various times I have had suspicions towards (can't recall if I voiced them or not).
Aristo on the other hand had pinged my scumdar a few times with some of the votes he has made.  So having scum narrowed down to 2 out of 4 for me makes it a 50% chance that Aristo is scum.  A 66% chance if I am right on Fish and a 100% chance if massive is telling the truth.

So the unvote is because I need to consider massive more closely.  100% certainty is an easy vote to make but since a mislynch today ends the game (even if massive is telling the truth)...a less than certain vote needs more thought.

But back to Aristo....the VCA bits that have me thinking he could be scum are:

D2 I thought his Oka hammer was odd ("Okie Dokie?")...that it came from nowhere.  Though he did vote him earlier in D2 he hopped over to random once the Oka wagon initially started to lose steam.  Actually bringing random to L-1 twice and forcing a claim from random which didn't deter Arito from voting him regardless.  And for a brief stint he was on Kop which could result in having just been some light bussing.


D3 he was voteless for most of the day.  And while viking was gaining steam as the day's lynch, Aritso avoided the viking wagon and tried to work a Kop lynch.  If Kop is in fact scum...this could have been a very subtle bus that could have paid out big if the tide had turned and Kop had been lynched (and scum).  As it was...he did not support the eventual scum lynch.  I also think his comments to viking in Post 1069 in hindsight looked like scum daychat.

Speaking of the viking wagon...I believe there was at least one scum on it.  I think if neither of viking scum mates were on his wagon he would have been more likley to self vote at the end.  Once he flipped scum I thought it was odd that he allowed himself to be at L-1 as long as he did without muddying the water by hammering himself.  I think he was allowing his teammate/s to get cred for his demise.

D4 he and massive supported the FA mislynch and are the only two on it still alive who aren't confirmed town (fmpov).

Nothing VCA related yet today.

******************************************************

I feel like I am talking myself in and out of suspecting people the more I read. 

I do see the points Wicked brings up against massive.  Typically I have a hard time giving people caught in a lie a 2nd chance.  The fact that massive's Doc claim came immediately following Wicked's case/vote is also bothersome.  I'm feeling like it could be massive + Aristo/Kop/Fish (in that order of suspicions).

@Wicked...

I can not recall if I have ever fakeclaimed with breadcrumbs as scum before.  If I had to say one way or the other I would say no.  

Mod...if a day begins with equal numbers of town and mafia...is a winner (mafia) declared or does the game continue?

 

And if we do hit scum today....then I can safely be used to confirm another player...though scum could get a 2 for 1 if I forecast hiding behind town.  But then if I die...everyone will know Wicked is in fact town and tomorrow would result in a 1v1.  If I hide behind someone and die alone though...the last scum is outted.   

If we do hit scum today but do not hit the scum RB...I do not think it affects my ability to hide as I do not think a hider is prevented from hiding by a RB.  I think the hide action resolves first.

Mod...in the NAR you are using....can a hider be prevented from hiding if targeted by a roleblocker or does the hide action occur first?

This turned into a longer post than I intended.

tl:dr;

  I still have doubts about massive and I think Wicked's case has merit.
I suspect Aristo/Kop/Fish (in that order of suspicions).
If we do not get scum today it may not be the end of the road for town.
If we get scum today I think I can clear or implicate someone this evening regardless of whether the flipped scum is a RB or not.

Question to massive...why do you think scum have a roleblocker?

[havingfitz]

Write ^ earlier this morning and just now posting.

Massive...what the point of your post 1092 comments?

[Aristophanes]

I know why I think there's an RB, but I guess I'll leave that to Massive.
Fitz, I assume by the mod saying thrice, I believe, that the hider, if hiding, will only be affected by any night actions aimed at the one they hide behind, you won't be blocked. Reasonable to ask though.

I believe it would be better if you announce who you hide behind. I have said why multiple times.

I'm gonna take a gamble and see how this goes, because I can't see my vote going anywhere else today.
VOTE: FF

[havingfitz]

Massive...disregard the RB question. I thought I saw something but I was mistaken. Any other questions still apply.

[massive]

Scum have a roleblocker because Random's shot failed. That's as simple as it gets. Random is confirmed town and had no reason to lie about attempting to shoot vikingfan N2.

If I am scum, you have to explain the no-kill on N3. Neither wickedest nor fitz have done so.

Massive...what [is] the point of your post 1092 comments?

You know there are town roles in the game that can affect the nightkill -- you supposably have one yourself -- why was this not the first thing you considered? Why make a big long post wondering what

possibly

could have happened? Why is "scum intentionally no-killed" the first thing that comes to your mind?

[massive]

I believe it would be better if you announce who you hide behind. I have said why multiple times.

I see no reason to keep up with this agenda. You've already confirmed that there's a roleblocker involved, so how exactly is your scheme going to provide information? Assuming scum don't just kill me, they're going to block me, so what outcomes exactly are you looking for?

[massive]

D3 he was voteless for most of the day.  And while viking was gaining steam as the day's lynch, Aritso avoided the viking wagon and tried to work a Kop lynch.

I find this very interesting. Substitute "Random" for "Kop" in this statement and it's basically what YOU did. 919 soft-defense of viking in the form of an attack on Random. 961 soft-defense of viking in the form of an attack on Random. 1010 ask someone to unvote viking while you analyze him. 1042 which is basically a null read on viking. Someone already pointed out the level of effort in 1042 v. 1063. Why is this scummy in Aristophanes and not in you?

[havingfitz]

Massive...

disregard [ ˌdisriˈgärd ] VERB - pay no attention to; ignore:
-------------
If you are scum.....how could the NK be explained....?

- Scum screwed up? Night was over a weekend and iknal opened the game early on a Monday morning. Oh crap....wait...not to worry! That would fit in with a good fakeclaim! I (massive) am caught in a lie (by wicked) and can use an f up (or pre-designed plan) to substantiate my "doc protect."
This is a possible alternative to you telling the truth. A truth that conveniently now can not be substantiated due to the presence of a RB.

Did you ever answer the question about breadcrumbing?

Have you ever had a PR before and if so...have you ever breadcrumbed one?

--------------
What town roles do I know of that can effectively alter the nightkill? The dead cop - no? The claimed vig 1-shot who hadn't proven anything - no? I know my role but as I said before...I did not use it that night. So I knew that wasn't an option. And doc didn't come to mind. Intentionally or by mistake...I assumed it was of scum's doing based on the facts available to me and susequent assumptions based on those facts.
--------------
Why is Aristo hypothesizing of ways to utilize my hide a bad thing? Especially if a RB would not effect it? Especially if today's kill is a RB'er? If it makes no difference either way it could be for town cred or genuine misguided effort. If there is an actual way (or chance of) to benefit of it...why discourage that "agenda"?
--------------
Um....Random for me vs Kop for Aristo is not "basically what YOU

did." I was voting random all D3....following on from the beginning of D2 and for much of D1. There was no hop onto random like Aristo did Kop when the viking wagon was in full effect. I was all in on random for most of the game. By continuing to present my suspicions towards random throughout D3 and trying to get him lynched. To say I was defending anyone else because I was being consistently on who I DID and HAD suspect is IMO a misrep. Was I soft defending Kop as well? Absurd. Maybe I was soft defending wicked and fish as well since I didn't go after them? The only reason I even paid viking the attention I did on D3 was because he was looking like the day's lynch and I wanted to see if that was something I could support (and someone may have asked me...idr). And as it looked like it was going to happen regardless of how I felt I stuck to my guns.
--------------

Since we are playing the "If I am scum" game...if I am scum...

- Why did I claim? I do not believe I was in danger.
- Why did I claim a claim that made little sense given other claims.
- Why wouldn't I have claimed to have hid behind someone N3 to account for a no kill.
- Why did I not hop on what appeared to be a certain viking wagon and try to grab some cred?

@all....do you think any of viking's scum buddies bussed him?

@anyone...I haven't looked at how this would effect things but

is a No Kill an option

with me announcing who I will hide behind tonight? Worst case I hide behind town and scum gets a 2 for 1 and best case....I die and we ID a scum. And we still have the numbers on our side.

[Aristophanes]

No kill isn't an option.

If you and the one you hide behind eat it, 2v2.
Scum force a nolynch or a mislynch and win.

We have to lynch scum today.
No quickhammer on FF tells me he is the right choice.
Scum would have done it and won if he wasn't one of them.

Massive, why is my trying to make the most of our night actions bad?
Fitz has to announce his target. Otherwise it does us no good.
You really should protect the same person, as that is the best chance we have of minimizing deaths.
If you get RB'd and both Fitz and the target die, so be it.
Wicked is then conftown and it is either you or the other survivor that is scum.
I believe we should lynch FF and Fitz should hide behind Kop because it will confirm for myself that either you or Kop are the final scum, flips dependant.
(I am town, it can conf Wicked, and then either it's just you alive and you are scum or it's you and Kop alive and he is scum.)

What is wrong with this scenario?
Why would I not be fighting for it?
We can solve the whole thing this way if we can just agree to do this.

[Aristophanes]

As for the question of a bus, my answer has to be yes. 3/6 were on that wagon at lynch. I was not, but know I am town. If scum did not bus, it would have to be you and Fish as scum. I think there was a scum on the wagon, and one off of the wagon.

Off-wagon is most reasonable as FF. His jump to the next possible lynch (which I did too, admittedly) looks fishy to me, and did at the time. It reads as scum who thinks they have had a chance to save a scummate. He never even considered Viking for scum. He got defensive when questioned on the whole "handcuffing Random" thing and he misrepped me as the one who pushed it hardest in a poor attempt to shift the focus off of Viking.
He is clearly scum.

On wagon I think we can figure out tonight via night actions, if people can agree to the above proposal.
It sheds light on all 3 of those on his wagon and should lead to victory.

[Aristophanes]

Wow, I just realized the most reasonable idea I have had the whole game was called "hairbrained."

Massive, can you please present to me a better option as to what should be happening tonight, or tell me why it is so wrong to try confirming people?
If you are concerned you will be blocked and Kop & Fitz will be shot, don't be. If you were town, that would confirm for you that I am scum and Wicked is town.
If you happen to be scum, I can totally see the worry. Because vice-versa, I, as town, will have you as confirmed scum.

If Kop is scum, it won't make a difference if they have an RB or not, as your protection would be on scum, but Fitz will confirm that the slot is scum. So no matter who is night killed, Kop will be lynched.

I'm really having a hard time understanding how against this you are, and why it is so "hairbrained" as you say.

[havingfitz]

No quickhammer on FF tells me he is the right choice.

This discounts there could be scum already on the FF wagon. Something I find odd given you have suspicions towards the other person on the FF wagon.

[Aristophanes]

I am far more confident in Fish scum than in Kop scum. His record is scummier in this game and, though not the best play, busing is always possible. But we have to make a lynch and this is the one that is most likely to flip scum imho

[massive]

Have you ever had a PR before and if so...have you ever breadcrumbed one?

I am not a fan of breadcrumbing. I especially don't like it for protective roles, who I think should do their best to fly under the radar. Investigative roles I can understand but I haven't had one since being back, and since inevitably someone will go back and look at games from 1996, I will only say I do not remember ever having breadcrumbed a role. (Except for Fezzig in Princess Bride Mafia, but that was required by the role.)

Why is Aristo hypothesizing of ways to utilize my hide a bad thing? Especially if a RB would not effect it? Especially if today's kill is a RB'er? If it makes no difference either way it could be for town cred or genuine misguided effort. If there is an actual way (or chance of) to benefit of it...why discourage that "agenda"?

Because it reads exactly like vikingfan trying to determine / force where Randomidget's shot was going N2?

- Why did I claim? I do not believe I was in danger.
- Why did I claim a claim that made little sense given other claims.
- Why wouldn't I have claimed to have hid behind someone N3 to account for a no kill.
- Why did I not hop on what appeared to be a certain viking wagon and try to grab some cred?

This is basically the only reason why I am not voting you. You were the last to claim, and a fake hider claim in the face of that makes zero sense. The ONLY reason you might do so is to clear Wickedest (as your only hide target), but most of us are townreading him in any event, so I'm not sure what that would gain you.

The idea of No Lynch is interesting. I'm not sure mathematically it stacks up, but it's gonna take another post for me to math it out.

[massive]

I am far more confident in Fish scum than in Kop scum. His record is scummier in this game and, though not the best play, busing is always possible. But we have to make a lynch and this is the one that is most likely to flip scum imho

Kop is town. See: counterwagon to vikingfan D3, first person to understand what happened N2 and put it in the game (899), first person to vote for vikingfan D3 (906).

[massive]

No Lynch maths:

.. if fitz announces his hide target:

.... if it's scum, fitz dies, they kill overnight, 2:2
.... if it's town, they kill the hider target (making two deaths), 2:2

.. if fitz doesn't announce his target:

.... if it's scum, fitz dies, they kill overnight, 2:2
.... if it's non-Wicked town, they kill me, 3:2 but you have your hider and two cleared townies, town win, so they won't do that
.... if it's non-Wicked town and they try and shoot the hide target, still 3:2 if they miss, 2:2 if they get it right

.. if fitz is lying:

.... tomorrow is 3:2 so no gain / no loss

It's totally dependent on fitz getting his night choice right and scum missing.

[massive]

I will apologize for calling it harebrained but it presumes that havingfitz is town (and never seemed like it considered the fact that scum have a roleblocker). I also don't think it's necessary for him to name his target, but I'm trying to think it through.

4:1 after today (we have to assume we lynch correct or all of it is moot)

... if fitz announces his target and it's town, scum kill the target, killing both of them, but it's 2:1 with Wicked conftown
... if fitz announces his target and it's scum, he dies, scum kill, but it's 2:1 with confscum

... if fitz doesn't announce and it's town, scum play roulette, best solution for them being the same as if he announced, worst 3:1 but lots of conftown
... if fitz doesn't announce and it's scum, he dies, scum kill, 2:1

... if fitz is lying, it's 3:1 tomorrow

Actually, it appears I just needed to read it and think it through. It's not harebrained at all. And if we hit the roleblocker in FF, it probably gets better.