MINI 1688 — BEES!!! — game over

KayP · Post Post #650 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:51 am

For anyone asking about my reasonings for putting people in certain spots, might I point you to this post on the last page where I outline my thoughts on the whole game?

I've never thought Glork to be scummy, and stated I had no reason to think he was scum since I disliked Tammy's points about him. The only point against him would be his response to Tammy.

The easier to breakdown version would be:

TOOOWN!

: Me, Bob, Frogger

GREY MURKY GOOPY NOTHINGNESS RIGHT NOW

: Glork, SleepyKrew, UT

SUSPICION LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL

: Green Crayons, Tammy, ducks

SCUUUM!

: RedCoyote, Bulge

This is sort of how I came up with that lynch order/preference list in the first place, by breaking it into "tiers", but I assumed people would want the list instead.

Green Crayons · Post Post #651 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:55 am

Yeah, I read that post and Glork didn't really look like "third to last lynch" material.

I didn't read the last sentence for your Glork bit, though, so there's that.

Jesus people stop writing so much.

KayP · Post Post #652 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:02 am

With only two real townreads, being null/neutral is going to place you pretty high on a list that features a good number of suspects.

Marquis · Post Post #653 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:05 am

Votecount...

Spoiler: ...remains unchanged from previous.

RedCoyote · Post Post #654 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:16 am

As always, please do not feel obligated to read my game notes. These are just a reference point for those interested in further detail. I'll sum up my conclusions after the spoiler tag.

Spoiler: Game Notes

I'd like to preface this by saying that there's absolutely no reason to force ourselves to choose between Glork and Tammy today. Frankly, I don't think we ought to. If I had to choose, it would be that we lynch Tammy, but I just don't think we need to go down that road today. Truth be told, I haven't really read the last few pages in depth because I'm not overly enthusiastic about signing onto either of these wagons.

I'd like to propose that the players on either of these wagons listen to my case, consider it, debate with me, and see if it's a wagon that five of you (+ moi) can come to a mutual understanding on.

UT starts this game off with a particularly weak lalala vote (114). GC notices it (122). I didn't really consider it until GC brought it up, but UT made lalala's comment seem much more damning than it really was. Okay, so shortly thereafter, UT flips the script and sheeps onto the Bella wagon in (143). He's the third vote on the wagon, and he just got through defending his lalala vote (135 & 139). This jump is awkward in that I don't know what UT was trying to accomplish with his lalala vote. He never asked her a question or waited for any particular response that I can tell. That would be one thing to abandon it without those things, but then he abandons it because "anytime Glork and TTH are voting someone, you've gotta join them" (145). I'm not satisfied with this. This is not independent UT. This sounds as though UT is not honestly scumhunting. It gets worse.

A short while later, UT makes the comment that he wants to "lynch the ducks!" (224), less than a day after moving his vote to Bella. TTH calls him on it, and he says that he forgot he moved to Bella (228). There's something very unsettling about this. This gave me bad, bad vibes. You're not supposed to forget stuff like this as town. I don't. I know whom I am targeting and I don't forget about it. It's not even like Bella and lalala are all that similar either.

UT makes this bumbling misrepresentation of GC, claiming that GC is trying to townread lalala for being nice (261). GC lets it slide, but I don't think it's honest. Now we have UT just grabbing at random comments to sound like he's scumhunting, but this is just dense. Anyone that took the time to read over the discussion would know GC's intention. It doesn't sit right with me.

UT's defense of KayP strikes me as all levels of wrong when the man has had little to say about KayP (319). Frankly, his reads are an enigma to begin with, but this was a critical time to come to bat for KayP as Glork and GC were debating on whether to bring KayP on the table (316 & 317 ... *HINT HINT*, Tammy/Glork, this part is something I'd like y'all espeically to consider as I think we may all three have mutual agreement RE: KayP). UT slyly puts it out there that KayP ought not be pursued in favor or someone else (this person would eventually become BB, of course). UT ultimately agrees with a BB wagon with no qualms whatsoever (337). I guess he doesn't have a secret townread on BB like he does on KayP.

Okay, so that's me shooting both barrels. There would be more, but UT is good at keeping his card close to his vest as scum. I just finished observing him as scum in another mini game where he played very similarly (Papers, Please Mafia for those meta fans).

If a UT wagon cannot happen, then, well, let me just give y'all a scumscale:

[

Town

]------GC-----Glork-BobLob--Fro99er-[

∙

]-Tammy---SK--Bulge-KayP-lalala---UT----[

Scum

]

lalala would probably be my next choice. If I absolutely can't get either of these wagons to catch fire, I will begrudgingly choose Bulge over either Glork or Tammy. It would be a sad lurker lynch, but my only experience with Bulge was when he was lurking scum on a team with me.

RedCoyote · Post Post #655 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:21 am

GC 651 wrote:Jesus people stop writing so much.

Oops.

Anyway, tl;dr time.

UT is scum for weak votes on lalala and Bella. Never pushing them or signifying his unique presence in any meaningful way. Preying on GC/Glork's oldie status to get away with shielding KayP in favor of BB. Forgetting where his vote was from one day to the next. Calling out GC over dumb scumtells that ultimately lead nowhere. And, you know, actively lurking, pretty much (though it's hard to notice in a game with as much inactivity as this). Please consider this lynch before the day ends. If I can't get it sold, I will move to lalala, KayP or Bulge in that order.

VOTE: Untrod Tripod

KayP · Post Post #656 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:35 am

Hmmm.

Gut reaction is internally shouting and fist-pumping because someone else finally said something about UT's weirdness!

Skeptical reaction is that RC is coming in and moving people away from the two major wagons towards a neutral third option as a scum tactic -- if UT is town, then RC is driving the wagon towards UT so that we'll be right back to Tammy vs Glork tomorrow.

I agree with most of his points on UT, though, that's not saying RC isn't mafia as well. Eurghhhh. I'll come back to this later.

RedCoyote · Post Post #657 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:41 am

I can understand that. Frankly, KayP, you're the one I'm struggling with the most. A good part of my scumread on you is associative though, so take that how you will.

I wish you'd have verbalized those internal UT suspicions more often during D1 though! It would've gone a long way in my read of you.

KayP · Post Post #658 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:50 am

I mentioned his behavior D1 a couple times IIRC and nobody batted an eye so I just assumed it was normal or something.

Green Crayons · Post Post #659 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:46 am

oooooooooooooh.

This just got interesting!

Tammy · Post Post #660 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:58 am

In post 640, Glork wrote:It basically implies either multiball, or that Tammy came into the game with the sole intent of SUPER MUTUAL BUSING between us, which while not out of the realm of possibility, is probably not the smartest idea considering she could have just caught up, done her best to respond to the points against Bella, and concocted whatever argument she wanted to get discussion going in the direction of not-1-v-1-with-her-scumbuddy.

Up until this moment I've thought this post was more evidence of glork!scum. I was like AHA, he thinks there's a possibility of him going down today and he's capitslizing on people's thoughts of an us partnership so I'd go down as his partner.

Then.

Just.

Now.

It occured to me that why would he actually think that? The writing is on the wall for me today and maybe he's preemtively concerned about being lynched tomorrow as my buddy.

Which would make him town, or opposing party I guess on the off chance this is multiball.

But he looks so damn scummy and isn't even beginning to read the game the way I would expect a town him would :/

SleepyKrew · Post Post #661 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:21 am

I will begin reading tonight but why hasn't KayP already been lynched for their signature

lalaladucks · Post Post #662 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:23 am

oh yes please

VOTE: UT

Evil C can't believe you're scumreading me

lalaladucks · Post Post #663 (ISO) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:37 am

Spoiler: wrote a lot of stuff

Fro99er · Post Post #664 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:25 am

I lied, I said I'd state my Glork case and either vote Tammy or Glork in my next post, but that was before RC's catch-up post, which I think needs more discussion.

I personally believe one scum is in either Tammy or Glork, but RC isn't enthused by either wagon. KayP's point in 656 is actually very good (if UT flips town, we'll be probably be right back to Tammy/Glork D3). I'm inclined to want to sort the Tammy/Glork deal today because I cannot see how they are both town. I'm interested to hear RC's thoughts on why UT is better first, and how things would change in RC's mind if UT flips town or what avenue RC would pursue next. Especially given RC thinks there's a significant nonzero possibility that Tammy and Glork are both town.

Also, anyone else find Ducky's vote on UT interesting (on The Bulge wagon with UT, then turns and votes UT as a complete sheep to RC)?

Fro99er · Post Post #665 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:30 am

Also, I have my Tammy/Glork deal all typed up. Just want to hear from RC first. If I don't hear in the next few hours, I'll just post my Tammy/Glork thing anyway, because this game needs to progress toward a lynch soon.

Green Crayons · Post Post #666 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:34 am

In post 658, KayP wrote:I mentioned his behavior D1 a couple times IIRC and nobody batted an eye so I just assumed it was normal or something.

UT's play this game is pretty normal in terms of how UT plays, but RC's case is probably the best parsing of UT's playstyle into some sort of alignment case that I've seen.

RedCoyote · Post Post #667 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:42 am

SK 661 wrote:I will begin reading tonight but why hasn't KayP already been lynched for their signature

Let's save that for GD and vote UT together. It will be a bonding moment.

---

lalala 662 wrote:Evil C can't believe you're scumreading me

Had to do it, ducky D:

lalala 663 wrote:They told me to do it and I was at L-1!

I may have missed that then. I'd have to go back and check.

lalala 663 wrote:he was though...

That may be, but you saying "also didn't really know who to vote" completely undercuts your position. You may as well have just put a dice roll in there for good measure. The reason you vote him (from your POV) is you didn't like him being on your wagon for no good reason. You didn't like him forgetting why he suspected/voted Bella. You didn't like him ignoring the game. Any of those would've been better than "I voted him because I didn't know who else to vote :3"

---

Fro99er 664 wrote:I'm interested to hear RC's thoughts on why UT is better first, and how things would change in RC's mind if UT flips town or what avenue RC would pursue next. Especially given RC thinks there's a significant nonzero possibility that Tammy and Glork are both town.

Well, UT is better first because he's my top scumread. I mean, I know that's probably not the answer you want to hear, but I'm going to be selfish and try and usurp a leadership role in a town that is in somewhat of a deadlock. That said, I know this role is not looked upon with much favor from the majority of y'all (with good reason, mind you), so it may be a fruitless endeavor. Nevertheless, if I see an opportunity to get my top scumread lynch as town in any situation, I am going to go for that. Period. Simple answer, but it's the truth.

If UT were to flip town, frankly, I'd then selfishly pursue lalala the next day. UT's alignment doesn't have much bearing on my Tammy/Glork reads, though I can see spots where UT has attempted to buddy Glork and spots where UT has attempted to distance from Tammy, these are also based wholly on confirmation bias and could very well be just normal interactions should UT flip town.

I do want to address what you two have brought up RE: Tammy/Glork not being settled going into tomorrow should be lynch someone else and they both survive. These fierce X vs Y arguments have a way of puttering themselves out. I've been around the block enough times to know that you can get tired of yelling at the same person unless it's like some lylo situation. Additionally, I think we all ought to reiterate the idea (both mentally in our own heads as well as publicly out here in the thread) that 1) Tammy and Glork are probably not scum together and 2) at best there's only one scum between them, meaning there's more likely than not two other scum out there that are being ignored.

Now, it's my opinion that at this point I would pick neither of them for scum, but even if you weren't to subscribe to that radical an idea, you would probably take comfort in knowing there are two other scum out there. I strongly believe UT to be one of them. Should he flip scum, we may be able to better find associate tells between either Tammy or Glork (or anyone else, for that matter).

---

GC 666 wrote:UT's play this game is pretty normal in terms of how UT plays, but RC's case is probably the best parsing of UT's playstyle into some sort of alignment case that I've seen.

Meta is meta. I do maintain that I have just gotten out of observing UT's scum play in a mini that ended a short while ago. I see similarities. Then again, you know, I think UT plays similarly as town, too, so take that how you will.

SleepyKrew · Post Post #668 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:52 am

I'm starting to go back to thinking that I won't be doing anything before deadline.

RedCoyote · Post Post #669 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:07 am

I'm fine with that as long as you vote UT.

If you say unvoted, I will haunt your dreams at night.

SleepyKrew · Post Post #670 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:11 am

In post 669, RedCoyote wrote:I will haunt your dreams at night.

Tammy · Post Post #671 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:34 am

Sorry I didn't come back yesterday; I was extremely tired after company left.

Anyway, I'll respond to other things in a mute but I wanted to explain some things so that you can see where Im coming from regarding glork.

There are a couple of things I look for with experienced players who are talented at this game, and glork is one of the players I respect and expect certain things from. This isn't a burden of proficiency thing, although there is something to be said about it but not this early in the game and especially with so many inactives. This is an analysis thing.

Now I don't have a lot of experience with glork at all, but in the two games I do have direct experience with he looked at the game so much differently than this, and this isn't a meta thing either, but again an analysis thing. In one game - team mafia 2012, glork was able to cut through all the tunneling of another strong town voice to correctly identify my partner as scum when everyone was calling him town for silly reasons, and in the second - mafia behind the maiden - when half the game was coming after me day one after spyrex didn't like my opening, he was able to identify by behavioral tells that I was in fact town.

He was able to identify these things against the rest of the town because he was analyzing the game and looking deeply at it. He was surface skimming, he wasn't putting in the appearance of doing the work, he was doing the work, getting it right mattered to him. That is not what is happening here.

Remember the condescension I told you I saw in his behavior day one? Yeah, still here. Now he might not like or respect me as a person or as a player, but his immediate response to my entrance was that he wasn't going to read what I've said. I think what I've out out is some pretty good stuff, and he can't in good town conscience just call me obvious scum without reading what I've said. He's dong it to be dismissive because he knows if he does read what I've said, he'd have to reconsider that scum read. But he's not town and he knows that with this town he can get away with it because of the reads on my predecessor and what he can get away with with this town.

Likewise was his statement that it wasn't omgus because he was already on my predecessor followed up by sweetheart, which was more condescension meant to bait me and discredit my point. It absolutely is omgus even if he was already on me and he knows that. And he would know my point.

The responses that he made to my case were likewise awful. First he responded to my argument that he didn't feel like he was trying to figure out the game but looking like he was trying to figure out the game. He knew exactly what I meant by that. I didn't say he do anything, he's surface skimming. Now I'd like you all to look at the type of response id expect from someone as experienced and talented at this game that glork is. (I'm not comparing players here, nor do I expect him to do the same thing, but this goes to mindset so bear with me)

In the recent team mafia game when I got suspicious of ces for a similar reason, this was his response to me.

Subject: White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Tammy, you're probably that there is some intensity missing from my play compared to what I used to have. That's part of why I stopped playing. Looking at this game, I know I'm taking all sorts of shortcuts - I'm not questioning my own reads enough; I'm intentionally not considering Regfanscum until he's survived one Night he shouldn't; I haven't looked at BBT's scum meta because everyone calls him town despite my gut niggles; I'm not thinking enough about Ank's claim of being bad at scum (even as I type this, I don't particularly want to do it); I got carried away with the Aeronautread because everything seemed to line up so nicely.

I used to think my play deteriorated because I had such a long town streak at the end of it but I realize now that the essential problem was probably that I started to rate my own reads highly enough that I didn't feel motivated to scrutinize them. Rekindling the spark is not going to be as easy as just playing another White Flag set-up but at least I'm definitely enjoying the company.

I still think I'm right about Cheery Dog though.

I see no similar type of trying to understand me or my suspicion from glork. Now some of this is mitigated by the fact that ces was town reading me at the time, ces and I have more experience playing together here and offsite, and therefore has a better understanding of me, but I still do think there's something to his reaction.

I, again, wouldn't exoect the same reaction from glork, but what I would expect from a town player actually trying to. Figure out the game is stepping back and seeing if maybe I had a point or inquire to try to figur me out. Instead, he lists all the stuff he has done - that surface level stuff that still doesn't indicate he's trying to figure out the game but just looking like he is.

I'd also like to point you to his reaction to my suspicion on him. I'd have probably seen his point if he said I was scum who was trying to look town by attacking a strong innocent player because it would make me look town for it, but instead he pulls the "I'm the easiest person to fling mud on" which is incredibly inaccurate. Pretty much anyone else would be easier to fling mud at than him.

Now I get having a bad game, being rusty, or just being wrong, but I don't think his game has degraded to the point of that he's not evaluating the gam, and if he is just having a bad game and feels off then I exoect someone like him to acknowledge that because at the foundation of it all he'd still want to win the game.

I get that most of you are town reading him for some reason, and I'll probably still be the lynch today or tomorrow, and that's fine, but when I'm gone please don't forget what I've said. I'm rarely ever this certain about a scum read, and I don't think I've ever come this close to a 1v1 before, which should tell you something.

He's not looking at the game the way he should be if he's town.

Fro99er · Post Post #672 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:40 am

Ok, so here's my thoughts on Glork and Tammy:

My original D1 thoughts on Glork can be mainly be summed up from my post 356 in response to Shadoxx's 294. Here it is again:

Spoiler: Frogger 356

----------------------------------------

D2 is where I started to have issue with Glork, and it made me review some things he said D1. Starting with what I disliked D2:

Spoiler: Glork D2

(in regards to the NK speculation inside the spoiler above, I think UT made a good point in 469.....

OR

.....in response to RC's wallpost, maybe scum!UT is trying to frame Glork...dun dun dun WIFOM)

This takes me up to post my 541 where I said I was suspicious of Glork because of his D2 play and in retrospect some D1 stuff. D1 retrospect stuff next.

----------------------------

The main thing that concerns me looking back on Glork's D1 play is how he's cozying up to me. EVERY SINGLE TIME he mentions me, it's to either defend me or call me town. I didn't think it at the time, but it makes sense that scum!Glork would try to cozy up to me so I don't suspect him.

Spoiler: Glork on Frog D1

That's the extent of him mentioning me on D1. It gives me nervous feels when the only time someone mentions me is to cozy up to me.

-------------------------------

Glork's play D2 since post 541 has been mixed
- Glork's 572 and especially 577 are really good, actually
- 638 is an interesting observation about BobLob, but I think nullish in terms of alignment (both of BobLob and of Glork)...if he didn't mean it as nullish and instead is trying to throw suspicion on BobLob, I'm just at a loss for words, because Bob has been one of his townreads.

-------------------------------

Anyway...my case on Glork isn't as strong as my case on Bella/Tammy.

I'm getting the weird feeling Tammy is actually doing even more of what Glork appears to be doing to me (cozying up to me). Tammy even points out in 520 that Glork is cozying (while she's been cozying up to me herself)! She would have even MORE reason to cozy up to me and frame someone else on her wagon (Glork is the obvious choice as GC is pretty obvtown) since she knows I made a solid case on Bella (which Tammy herself calls cogent in 551).

Here's how Tammy has cozied up to me...

Spoiler: Tammy on Frog

As I said, Tammy has

more

motivation to cozy up to me. I had put a solid case on her slot so now she needs me to be the most town player of all time so I can start to see her side of things. So, my case on Tammy amounts to:
- My case on Bella which I don't need to rehash at this point
- Tammy's weird analysis of Bella's meta
- repeatedly defending her predecessor to clean up a mess prior to doing any scumhunting herself
- she puts a case on Glork, but actually defends him in 549 for a bit
- she calls herself town 80 billion times (I mean...how many times do you need to repeat you are town? A quick ctrl+f of her ISO with "I'm town" turns up 3 instances, and there are several others without the "I'm" in front of it)
- lots of cozying up to me (since I made a good case on Bella) as motivation to throw suspicion on someone else on the Bella/Tammy wagon (Glork being the easier target, since GC is pretty universally townread)

VOTE: Tammy

Pedit: I see tammy posted a big wall with some meta stuff. Tammy, I'll obviously look at Glork if you flip town.

Tammy · Post Post #673 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:50 am

Two things:

My analysis of Bella's personality and meta is spot on accurate, please take that information with you in future games as it is really good analysis info.

You should do a check of me site wide. I call myself town all the time. It used to be a way to differentiate between a town and scum me, because I wouldn't call myself town if I were scum. Now it's a null tell for me because it was near trust tell levels so I had to start doing it as scum. People call themselves town all the time. Please take this with you in future games as it's absolutely not a scum tell.

Third - you would absolutely NOT be who I would cozy up to or try to get on my side as scum. That would be glork, who a scum me would be working to get on my side if at all possible because I consider him the strongest player here.

But please please please lynch glork tomorrow. Please.

Tammy · Post Post #674 (ISO) » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:52 am

You know what's sad?

Scums already won this game.