Newbie 1613: Mafia in the Summer (Game Over)

[Drixx]

@CD - I already have asked a very critical question, and DP came in and voted me afterward. I think that may be significant.

Radmann's post is awful, by the way. That's currently hovering very close to "too awful to actually be scum" it's so bad. There was no kill because the slot I replaced into flaked? Is Radmann even reading the game?

[Drixx]

(Why would a Jailkeeper have targetted me?)

If there is a jailkeeper, they could have targetted an almost completely unknown player slot.

Sure. But it's unlikely that both a hypothetical JK and the night kill target the same player on N1.

The phrase you are looking for is "relatively unlikely".

It's unlikely that you will win the lottery or get struck by lightning this week.

The odds of two roles targeting the same person on night one in a newbie mafia game, assuming that the choice is purely random (which, obviously, it isn't) are at worst 1/7 * 1/7 or 1 in 49. If the town PR is smart and catches on to who the strong town players are, and picks a likely target, then the odds of convergence go from "relatively unlikely" to "Actually ... that's pretty likely, all things considered."

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

To clarify the above, we shouldn't be looking to unlikely coincidences to explain what happened. It's a possibility, sure, but unless there's good reason to think an unlikely scenario is more likely than what random chance indicates, it shouldn't be given much weight.

Pedit: Well, duh, no kidding Drixx - what circumstances indicate such a convergence?

[JumpsToConclusions]

(Why would a Jailkeeper have targetted me?)

If there is a jailkeeper, they could have targetted an almost completely unknown player slot.

Sure. But it's unlikely that both a hypothetical JK and the night kill target the same player on N1.

Unlikely but plausible, especially if a jailkeeper his taking a more defensive role of protecting people rather than offensive of stopping a mafia from making a kill.

What I am more so trying to point out is why would a mafia roleblocker disregard the existence of a jailkeeper if the jailkeeper could of jailed the mafia.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

@CD - I already have asked a very critical question, and DP came in and voted me afterward. I think that may be significant.

What question was that? I must have missed it.

Radmann's post is awful, by the way. That's currently hovering very close to "too awful to actually be scum" it's so bad. There was no kill because the slot I replaced into flaked? Is Radmann even reading the game?

"too awful to actually be scum" isn't a thing in my (offsite) experience.

[Drixx]

Yeah ... there is

literally nothing

that scum won't or haven't done at some point or another. But if Radmann is the last scum ... he apparently doesn't enjoy playing scum. At all. Because that's like negative effort written all over that slot's play.

The question you missed is still standing and should be answered by everyone experienced enough to have seen it: LQ began the game by pretending to be an absolutely dyed in the wool first time ever new mafia player with no idea whatsoever of the concepts and terminology of the game. And then proceeded to slip all over himself revealing much greater experiential knowledge in his posts. It was perhaps the single most obvious thing to me on the read I did when I replaced in, and if he wasn't already dead I would be hard pushing for him to be lynched for it.

Like ... not a single person even appears to have noticed. Gigantic contradiction about something there's no

town

reason to lie about. I could see a newbie trying to pretend he has more experience than he does, but there's no town value at all to trying to pretend to have no experience. That's a scum play every time. Granted, LQ's posts were a bit of a chore to read through ... but I remain fairly shocked that nobody appears to have noticed that, and I'm asking why.

And yes, it matters. He's dead, but someone with experience should have noticed. You wanted to know why my suspicion went to the more experienced players, and that was the primary reason. I maybe was too subtle in connecting those dots.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

Yeah ... there is

literally nothing

that scum won't or haven't done at some point or another. But if Radmann is the last scum ... he apparently doesn't enjoy playing scum. At all. Because that's like negative effort written all over that slot's play.

True enough, on the other hand he (like you), replaced into a slot that if scum, is pretty well boned. Lack of effort could be expected when you've got nothing invested in a game and you're almost certainly going to lose.

The question you missed is still standing and should be answered by everyone experienced enough to have seen it: LQ began the game by pretending to be an absolutely dyed in the wool first time ever new mafia player with no idea whatsoever of the concepts and terminology of the game. And then proceeded to slip all over himself revealing much greater experiential knowledge in his posts. It was perhaps the single most obvious thing to me on the read I did when I replaced in, and if he wasn't already dead I would be hard pushing for him to be lynched for it.

Like ... not a single person even appears to have noticed. Gigantic contradiction about something there's no

town

reason to lie about. I could see a newbie trying to pretend he has more experience than he does, but there's no town value at all to trying to pretend to have no experience. That's a scum play every time. Granted, LQ's posts were a bit of a chore to read through ... but I remain fairly shocked that nobody appears to have noticed that, and I'm asking why.

And yes, it matters. He's dead, but someone with experience should have noticed. You wanted to know why my suspicion went to the more experienced players, and that was the primary reason. I maybe was too subtle in connecting those dots.

Personally, I didn't mention it because that sort of behavior is also consistent with someone that's learning as they go.

Also, after the fact, clearly it's not terribly alignment indicative because they're objectively only one scum left, and there's more than one player experienced enough to fail to take note when by your argument they should have, and they can't all be scum.

In addition, it's a BoP argument, so I don't give it much weight.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

In other words, in order for this to be a valid scumtell, you'd have to ignore the fact that *the entire town did it too*. How can that possibly be alignment indicative on three specific players when only one of them can possibly be scum?

[Aneninen]

Like ... not a single person even appears to have noticed. Gigantic contradiction about something there's no town reason to lie about. I could see a newbie trying to pretend he has more experience than he does, but there's no town value at all to trying to pretend to have no experience. That's a scum play every time. Granted, LQ's posts were a bit of a chore to read through ... but I remain fairly shocked that nobody appears to have noticed that, and I'm asking why.

It's only my experience but it's easier to spot things standing out blatantly when you dig up posts. It's also easier to spot them when you know the answer for the question.
It's not guaranteed that I can recall everything (multiple games, plenty of IRL things), but I remember some things. I started scumreading LQ around 161. His posts made very little town-sense thereafter. Ironically, I got unsure about him later because (1) I've seen quite a lot of scummy players flipping town (real "mislynch magnets") and (2) noone came to save his aß somehow. Still I stayed on his wagon because I thought even an unsure scumread would be a better lynch than a No Lynch.

[Drixx]

In other words, in order for this to be a valid scumtell, you'd have to ignore the fact that *the entire town did it too*. How can that possibly be alignment indicative on three specific players when only one of them can possibly be scum?

I cannot assume that everyone would notice it.

I also used it simply as a method to sort the suspects. I would expect more experienced players to notice it. If the remaining scum is in the more experienced player pool, there is no way they didn't notice it.

It takes more than one data point to narrow down possibilities to probabilities to near certainties.

The problem with this particular issue is that the experienced folks were able to side step answering it. I'll figure some other way to try and further sort.

[Drixx]

@Anen - If I had been LQ's partner, I would have done absolutely nothing to help him. The fact that there was no counterwagon also gives the same juxtaposition as the other thing I pointed out. The partner is either experienced and wasn't going to get caught in trying to save a lost cause ... or was just completely checked out of the game.

I think one of the things we need to do as we proceed is force the inactive players to engage and play. As in, we need to run them up to L-2 and force them to engage or be lynched. We need to be able to read those slots or else we need to lynch them so they aren't lynchbait or scum getting a free pass into LYLO, should the game proceed that long.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

I find your suggestion that we run up everyone else's town reads to L-2 to get them to engage slightly hilarious considering you've yet to cast a damn vote.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 2.07

radmann9 (3) - Aneninen, Cthulhu Dreaming, Bulbazoor
Drixx (2) - radmann9, DoctorPepper
Bulbazoor (1) - JumpsToConclusions

Not Voting (2) - Drixx, notscience

With 8 votes in play, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 6, 2015, at 2:30 AM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-07-06 02:30:00).

[Aneninen]

@Anen - If I had been LQ's partner, I would have done absolutely nothing to help him. The fact that there was no counterwagon also gives the same juxtaposition as the other thing I pointed out. The partner is either experienced and wasn't going to get caught in trying to save a lost cause ... or was just completely checked out of the game.

You haven't managed to narrow your pool at all. It's a paradox but you've just explained that it includes yourself too.

I think one of the things we need to do as we proceed is force the inactive players to engage and play. As in, we need to run them up to L-2 and force them to engage or be lynched. We need to be able to read those slots or else we need to lynch them so they aren't lynchbait or scum getting a free pass into LYLO, should the game proceed that long.

Bad idea. L–2 doesn't mean too much and if anyone troll-joins with another vote, that's L–1, which may force players to claim.

[Drixx]

I find your suggestion that we run up everyone else's town reads to L-2 to get them to engage slightly hilarious considering you've yet to cast a damn vote.

I am not vote happy. I vote when I feel a vote is warranted. What use a vote on notscience right now? She's not paying attention to the game. Let's see if my lone vote will summon her and get her to respond to me, shall we?

VOTE: notscience

@Anen - If I had been LQ's partner, I would have done absolutely nothing to help him. The fact that there was no counterwagon also gives the same juxtaposition as the other thing I pointed out. The partner is either experienced and wasn't going to get caught in trying to save a lost cause ... or was just completely checked out of the game.

You haven't managed to narrow your pool at all. It's a paradox but you've just explained that it includes yourself too.

I think one of the things we need to do as we proceed is force the inactive players to engage and play. As in, we need to run them up to L-2 and force them to engage or be lynched. We need to be able to read those slots or else we need to lynch them so they aren't lynchbait or scum getting a free pass into LYLO, should the game proceed that long.

Bad idea. L–2 doesn't mean too much and if anyone troll-joins with another vote, that's L–1, which may force players to claim.

Yes, the pool of possible scum includes the entire game. Nobody is confirmed town. I would put myself ahead of the lurksacks because I came in and engaged and continued to engage and try and push the game state to a more healthy place, despite replacing into a ton of pressure that had nothing to do with me.

I suggested L-2 for a specific reason. I don't want to make people claim. I do want to make people engage with the game.

I'm always confused why people sign up for mafia games and then don't play them.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

I find your suggestion that we run up everyone else's town reads to L-2 to get them to engage slightly hilarious considering you've yet to cast a damn vote.

I am not vote happy. I vote when I feel a vote is warranted. What use a vote on notscience right now? She's not paying attention to the game. Let's see if my lone vote will summon her and get her to respond to me, shall we?

The use of a vote is to see you take a firm stance on something so that, in the event that your slot actually is scum, you can't easily weasel out of it.

None of the scum reads you have expressed so far are likely to get any traction, and if you're not going to push them, and no one seems interested in following them, that ought to be telling you something.

I do appreciate you putting down a vote, though.

I'm always confused why people sign up for mafia games and then don't play them.

I would imagine that it has something to do with people having varying amounts of free time and very different ideas of what "play mafia games" means to them.

[Drixx]

So what you're saying is that everyone else in the game, except me, is free to play when they have the free time; however, I was obligated to spend several hours or else, by your ultimatum.

Interesting double standard.

[Drixx]

Radmann has been active on the site within the last hour but appears to have avoided this thread. Hrm.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

So what you're saying is that everyone else in the game, except me, is free to play when they have the free time; however, I was obligated to spend several hours or else, by your ultimatum.

Interesting double standard.

If that was your takeaway, your reading comprehension needs work.

[Drixx]

It didn't matter to you whether I had the time to spend. You demanded I do what you wanted, immediately, with a threat backing it up. So either you believe that people should play when they can, or you believe you can just demand someone do what you want and spend a portion of their lives, which can never be given back, or else.

It's a double standard. The fact that you refuse to acknowledge it speaks to your character.

[Drixx]

Please read that last post in the least harsh tone you can imagine. I'm not trying to start a big fight here ... just point out that you tunneled onto me hard and pressed me to spend a lot of time on this game... and you're giving others a free pass. It

is

a double standard, and it doesn't make rational sense.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

Bullshit, Drixx. My position was and is "You're here, do something useful to the game" - because what you were doing, wasn't. Comparing that to people who aren't here and aren't posting is utter crap.

This back and forth isn't useful, and I said as such earlier today and said I'll not take part in it anymore. Let's not start this back up again. Why you apparently feel the need to keep stirring it is beyond me.

Pedit:

Please read that last post in the least harsh tone you can imagine. I'm not trying to start a big fight here ... just point out that you tunneled onto me hard and pressed me to spend a lot of time on this game... and you're giving others a free pass. It is a double standard, and it doesn't make rational sense.

Please point out where I said you needed to spend a lot of time on the game. I said you needed to do useful things to help progress the game state. Useful doesn't imply time consuming.

[Bulbazoor]

JTC, I have done that as scum on other websites. It is pretty straightforward if you ask me. Besides, we have alot of mislynches left.

First off, you did not answer/explain anything regarding what I was seeking an explanation to. Everything you have said thus far in the game is pretty much jibber-ish to me and seems completely random.

@Anen, I am looking for an explanation from you regarding my previous post.

Second, you are the other non-vote on the D1 wagon and have seemed to almost get a free pass, up til now.

UNVOTE: Drixx

VOTE: Bulbazoor

You are mafia because:

Lickity is weird but I really want to believe he is town. I kind of see him as a town with a weird POV on things.

-Ilhom was trying to find a way to call Lickety (his partner) town but this was all he could come up with.
-Ilhom fizzled out of the game about the time the Lickety wagon was solidified.

This is basically an autowin because we have tons of mislynches left and we are guaranteed to hit scum sometime.

JTC, I have done that as scum on other websites. It is pretty straightforward if you ask me. Besides, we have alot of mislynches left.

-You have continuously stated that we have tons of mislynches left which is a terrible way to view this and it seems you just want to assure everyone we should just vote someone.
-You really really just want to kill one of the people with suspicion on them.

This is your vote pattern thus far: Radmann»juckter(Drixx)»Radmann»No vote»Drixx(juckter)»Radmann»No vote»Radmann.

It seems as soon as the tide in town shifts against your vote, you change your vote to try to fall in line to look 'normal'.
-I have seen very few original thoughts from you, all you have done is agreed with previous posts or commented on seeing something in a different game.

Bullshit. That is how my predecessor views him not how I do. How is my voting pattern normal?

[notscience]

I am not vote happy. I vote when I feel a vote is warranted. What use a vote on notscience right now? She's not paying attention to the game. Let's see if my lone vote will summon her and get her to respond to me, shall we?

VOTE: notscience

BEETLEJUICe

But on a more serious note, I'm visiting family. You aren't my primary concern.

I'll read later.

[Aneninen]

Yes, the pool of possible scum includes the entire game. Nobody is confirmed town. I would put myself ahead of the lurksacks because I came in and engaged and continued to engage and try and push the game state to a more healthy place, despite replacing into a ton of pressure that had nothing to do with me.

True. It adds a bit to my townread. Remember, I've seen your scumplay before.

I'm always confused why people sign up for mafia games and then don't play them.

That.

I would imagine that it has something to do with people having varying amounts of free time and very different ideas of what "play mafia games" means to them.

So what you're saying is that everyone else in the game, except me, is free to play when they have the free time; however, I was obligated to spend several hours or else, by your ultimatum.
Interesting double standard.

I think Cthulhu and you weren't talking about the same thing.

Radmann has been active on the site within the last hour but appears to have avoided this thread. Hrm.

That's not entirely true. He doesn't seem to have posted in other

games

. (Although I don't really understand why he replaced in while being on vacation, but that might be a nulltell.)

Please read that last post in the least harsh tone you can imagine. I'm not trying to start a big fight here ... just point out that you tunneled onto me hard and pressed me to spend a lot of time on this game... and you're giving others a free pass. It

is

a double standard, and it doesn't make rational sense.

Bullshit, Drixx. My position was and is "You're here, do something useful to the game" - because what you were doing, wasn't. Comparing that to people who aren't here and aren't posting is utter crap.

Pigeons are gathering so as to watch a town-vs-town fight.

BEETLEJUICe
But on a more serious note, I'm visiting family. You aren't my primary concern.
I'll read later.

As an IC I'm telling that was very far from a classic Beetlejuice tell.
Beetlejuice tell = when someone who hasn't been posting for a while posts immediately as soon as their name gets mentioned (or they get a vote). Many considers it a scumtell, but it's not all-powerful. Certain players tend to beetlejuice regardless of their alignment.