Newbie 1613: Mafia in the Summer (Game Over)

[DoctorPepper]

Dodge. Very busy atm

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

I have no further interest in lynching Drixx today, nor continuing what is increasingly appearing to be TvT violence.

Shall we bury the hatchet, Drixx?

[Aneninen]

Good.
Join the Radmann wagon then.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

I've been on it for awhile.

[Aneninen]

Where are the others?

[radmann9]

So let's see.

I'm away and I post a short message forgetting Jailkeeper thus it makes me instantly the scum? Forgetfulness when posting in a hurry. But, in an unrelated post, why harp on someone's play in a newbie game? Isn't it the point to learn as we go or is everyone expected to come in and know the ins and outs of the game from the get go? I'm still learning the terminology when it's randomly thrown in.

As for my being online, that may have just been on my phone. I was signed in, but didn't really look around. This is my first time getting on a computer to look at the site since... Thursday? Also the vacation was a two-day one and I just opted into the game so I could get my feet wet. This seemed to be the easiest step to get into a game quickly so I took it.

So the evidence against me is that I forgot to mention Jailkeeper and I came in and the night was moved forward a day? That's it and that's a giveaway scum? C'mon.

Drixx comes in and stirs it all up and begins getting extremely active and the votes roll away because he's active? I keep my vote where it is.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

That's an extremely shallow analysis of both your slot and Drixx's.

[Drixx]

I have no further interest in lynching Drixx today, nor continuing what is increasingly appearing to be TvT violence.

Shall we bury the hatchet, Drixx?

Gladly. I prefer to make friends of all and enemies of none.

As for Radmann ... he was posting in another game signup but claims otherwise. I don't see why he wouldn't just say "I had a second to note something in a sign up thread, and now I'm here" or something like that. Why say he hadn't been around in 3 days?

I would like to give him a little breathing room to give us his thoughts ... but that is predicated on him showing up and doing so, obviously.

[Bulbazoor]

Radmann, any new reads?

[radmann9]

My apologies for not being active the last couple of days. I was on vacation. I'm here now though.

As for my reads, let's go down the list shall we?

Cthulu- CD has been the steady quick to rile up Drixx and attack everything Drixx said. Of course town needs someone to do that so it's fair. The aggressiveness could be a facade, but you're probably the safest in my opinion. You wouldn't have gone so ruthlessly after Drixx if you were the only one left. At least not in my opinion, it seems like a risky play.

[Town]

Bulbazoor- The way you flip back and forth just makes it seem like you don't have any substantial information. Much in the same way that I haven't seen you post anything of use other than speculation based on nothing really. You're slowly inching towards scum to me. At first it seemed like you might just be confused on a ruling, but then you start randomly pointing fingers or jumping on the hottest train. Although if you provided your reads, I could be swayed against you. [Null lean scum]

Drixx- You've done a good job of turning the favor against you considering what you walked into. That being said, your slot still is questionable to me. Juckter did some questionable things which by themselves didn't seem to be a big deal but as a whole felt odd. You coming into it now has alleviated enough of it to make me change my vote, but I still find you scummy. Just not as scummy as the next name. [Null hard lean scum]

notscience- The scum is either the aforementioned Drixx or you, in my opinion. The way the posts from notscience come in just seem odd. Ever since the beginning. Then in post 285, he says 'if I'm scum why would I do anything you say?' which seems to quickly change to doing exactly what he said he wouldn't. Seemed like a cover-up to me. In fact everything he says just seems evasive for no reason if he's not scum, right? [Scum]

anien- Yeah nothing has changed for me for him. Jumped on me due to my slot which isn't something that I can particularly help. Especially when my slot was just quiet for the most part before I picked up the reigns. Silence is noise in this game though. [Null lean Town]

Doctor- This one is odd. No one seems to care that he pops in at random moments, says two words, then vanishes again. He has been on the notscience bandwagon from the beginning finding his responses scummy. For that reason, I'm more inclined to believe he's town since I think notscience is the culprit. [Null lean Town]

JTC- I haven't seem much from him lately, but nothing posted in the last few days have felt scummy. He was aggressive towards Drixx as was CD, but nothing that felted unwarranted compared to the general consensus about juckter and his lack of appearance. Thus I haven't seen anything to make me think otherwise. [Town]


notscience is reading too strongly for me not to change my vote.

UNVOTE: Drixx/Juckter
VOTE: notscience

[JumpsToConclusions]

I see less reason to lynch Radmann than I do for Bulba or Drixx. This is partially due to their slot, but voting Radmann for forgetting to mention a potential PR in the game seems like a flimsy platform to me.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 2.08

radmann9 (3) - Aneninen, Cthulhu Dreaming, Bulbazoor
notscience (2) - Drixx, radmann9
Bulbazoor (1) - JumpsToConclusions
Drixx (1) - DoctorPepper

Not Voting (1) - notscience

With 8 votes in play, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 6, 2015, at 2:30 AM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-07-06 02:30:00).

Moderator Comments

I will be away for a few days to take care of an emergency, so Aeronaut will be taking care of the game in the meantime.

[Aeronaut]

Hey everyone! I'll be modding the game for a bit while Equinox is away. Just keep in mind all the rules and whatnot and we should be all good.

[radmann9]

Pikachu and Bulbasaur in the same game? Time to change that avatar...

[Bulbazoor]

Woah!!

[Bulbazoor]

Radmann? If I were scum, is bringing attention to myself from random unvotes optimal?

[Bulbazoor]

I do think not is scum, sorry for not mentioning that, but I do not think I should join the wagon.

[Aneninen]

Hi, Aeronaut!

Hey there

I see less reason to lynch Radmann than I do for Bulba or Drixx. This is partially due to their slot, but voting Radmann for forgetting to mention a potential PR in the game seems like a flimsy platform to me.

That was not the only thing why I was (and is) scumreading Radmann. Read back my posts.
But, here's something else about that topic. Scums are motivated in town-PR hunting, so they may spot signs which we ignore. I'm not saying it happened, but it's a possibility.

________

Notscience is a bad vote. He was the second on the LQ wagon. If he were scum, he could have done anything instead of staying there.
Again, I'm not saying that the remaining scum is amongst those who were away from the LQ wagon, but

it's much more likely

and I've already explained, why.

A short summary of the away-names. Ilhom was wote parking on me, which would have been a very bad strategy if he were scum. Juckter was a possibility, but I don't think his replacement, Drixx is scum. (I've posted about this too.) So, PoE (Process of Elimination) also says that Radmann is the best lynch right now.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

Notscience is a bad vote. He was the second on the LQ wagon. If he were scum, he could have done anything instead of staying there.
Again, I'm not saying that the remaining scum is amongst those who were away from the LQ wagon, but

it's much more likely

and I've already explained, why.

Agree completely. If the game doesn't end today, depending on what information we get from flips, I may be willing to look closer at the players on the LQ wagon, but not today - not unless someone brings a strong case.

I will say that notscience's ISO does give me reason for pause, however, in games I have read, I have misread him before so I would need something more to want to lynch the slot.

[Drixx]

VCA is so flawed it's painful to watch smart people rely upon it to help them decide what to do. I will go along with it, but any time VCA "works", it's either an accident or really stupid scum.

I'll grant that if we viewed VCA as a psychological method instead of a probabilistic, it would have much more credibility ... but it has been largely theorycrafted based upon analysis of known wagons and is therefore a probabilistic approach.

It's like trying to use the law of large numbers to predict the lottery numbers or something. It's not sound at all.

{Rant off}

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

The fact of the matter is that *every* tool at our disposal is flawed in one way or another.

At various times, I've heard the following statements/debates:

* VCA is useless. / No it isn't.
* NKA is useless. / No it isn't.
* Pre-flip associatives are useless. / No they aren't.
* Meta is useless. / No it isn't.
* ...ad nauseum.

We use the evidence we have, using the tools that we have, the best way we know how, and we make imperfect decisions using imperfic data. Such is the nature of partial information games.

Personally, I was prepared to vote the Radmann9 slot before the NK even occurred, for different reasons. Now, perhaps there's some confirmation bias happening here, such is the nature of things at times.

The fact of the matter remains: I see no good case for Radmann9 being town, I see things that are consistent with him being scum, and I don't want the slot in the game at MYLO/LYLO (I think it unlikely that town!Radmann9 would be nightkilled - I sure as hell wouldn't). In short, that means, that barring a substantial change in gamestate, I want to see that slot lynched today or tomorrow. Why should be fairly obvious, but feel free to ask if you don't grok what I'm saying.

[Aneninen]

In theory, I agree, Drixx.
VCA is an easy to read tell, therefore scums tend to fool the town by being absent from mislynches and bussing each other.

However, this particular situation is very different, because
(1) there was a scum lynch
(2) it was Day1
(3) it's a Newbie.

Day1 bussing is a risky thing. It can earn a lot of town credit for the scum who performs it, but there are serious drawbacks. Firstly, the main goal of the scum faction is to get to LyLo as fast as it's possible. A scum lynch doesn't help this goal; they get only

further

from LyLo. Secondly, that town credit can wear off easily during the later Days. Finally, there are town PRs. Even a stray Night Action can be fatal to the scums... and as the game progresses, the town-PRs may confirm themselves and other townies too. No matter how well a scum plays, a game may be broken just because of the sheer amount of confirmed townies.

As for this situation. After LQ had been lynched, only one scum remained, with 7 townies along. The scum needs three mislynches after that. (Right now it's not true because there was no Nightkill, but at the end of Day1 noone knew it would happen.) If the other scum was on the LQ wagon, he/she still needs those mislynches... and need to be townread (or at least avoid getting lynched) for three more Days.
And there are the town-PRs. By Tomorrow a Cop may get two townreads even if he/she doesn't find the scum. A Tracker can provide almost as good reads (and that's a huge difference: with more than one scum alive, Trackers are much less useful). The Doc could prevent Nightkills, which slows down everything for the remaining scum. The Jailkeeper and the 1–Shot bulletproof can slow down things too, and if there's a single Jailkeeper, even he/she can park their Night Action on someone after a No Kill and seal the deal for the scum. (I've seen this in another Newbie.)
In short: bussing is too dangerous on a Newbie-Day1. (Add this to the story: the scum needs to get rid of the PRs

and

the un-lynchable players via his/her Nightkill.)

So, at this point of the game I still assume the scum wasn't on the LQ wagon.
Notscience, DoctorPepper and Cthulhu Dreaming were the middle section: anyone of those could have pushed a counterwagon or done anything to save his buddy. JTC might be scum if he thought Juckter would hammer LQ before Deadline, but I don't think it was happening. (Saving JTC might have made sense if he's Mafia Roleblocker, but why did he dropped by before Deadline then? He could have been away from the game or could have posted after Juckter if the latter one had hammered.)

[Aneninen]

We use the evidence we have, using the tools that we have, the best way we know how, and we make imperfect decisions using imperfic data. Such is the nature of partial information games.

^^
That.

[Drixx]

Please re-read #646, Aneninen, and tell me that you didn't just give a bunch of rational and psychological reasons for your sort.

You aren't actually using VCA at all.

[Aneninen]

I haven't got an idea what you meant by this, Drixx.
Isn't checking the wagon of a lynched scum VCA?