Newbie 1613: Mafia in the Summer (Game Over)

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Post Post #650 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:17 am

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

In post 648, Drixx wrote:Please re-read #646, Aneninen, and tell me that you didn't just give a bunch of rational and psychological reasons for your sort.

You aren't actually using VCA at all. :-)


I don't believe either of us claimed to be using VCA. What Aneninen just posted is virtually the same thing that was said right after the day opened. Anyways, I don't want to belabor that point or get off onto an unproductive tangent on theory.



In addition to what Aneninen has to say, I find his thought process to be substantially similar to my own, ergo I will not lynch him today.

I don't like the notscience votes. Whether notscience is town or not is a question for another day. I don't see that wagon going anywhere.

I say we lynch Radmann9 today. We'll have more information tomorrow and will hopefully have some better data to sort.
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Post Post #651 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:06 pm

Post by Aeronaut »

Vote Count 2.09radmann9 (3) - Aneninen, Cthulhu Dreaming, Bulbazoor
notscience (2) - Drixx, radmann9
Bulbazoor (1) - JumpsToConclusions
Drixx (1) - DoctorPepper

Not Voting (1) - notscience


With 8 votes in play, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 6, 2015, at 2:30 AM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-07-06 02:30:00).

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Post Post #652 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:45 pm

Post by JumpsToConclusions »

In post 642, Aneninen wrote:That was not the only thing why I was (and is) scumreading Radmann. Read back my posts.


The only other things I see are:
-post where you do not like Zen for not changing his vote, and Zen was around for maybe a whole real life day.
-post if you want to count it, where you do not like his vote.

Are these reasons any better than my arguments against:
-juckter/Drixx post
-Ilhom/Bulba post

I do not think so.

In post 645, Cthulhu Dreaming wrote:The fact of the matter remains: I see no good case for Radmann9 being town, I see things that are consistent with him being scum, and I don't want the slot in the game at MYLO/LYLO (I think it unlikely that town!Radmann9 would be nightkilled - I sure as hell wouldn't). In short, that means, that barring a substantial change in gamestate, I want to see that slot lynched today or tomorrow. Why should be fairly obvious, but feel free to ask if you don't grok what I'm saying.


The best reason I see to lynch Radmann is Cthulhu's post above, but I would argue the same reasoning could be applied to Bulba and Drixx.
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Post Post #653 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:49 pm

Post by Bulbazoor »

Yeah it could. But I am not one to post a useless wall. I feel little posts sum reads up.
I do not think JTC is scum because he is certainly trying out of the crowd stuff. While everyone is going at drixx and rad, he went after me. Anen and cthulu are town. Not null and so is rad. Drixx is also town. The two before are scumleans. Doctor is pure null
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Post Post #654 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:01 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

@JTC

I don't think it does applies equally to either Bulbazoor or Drixx. Anen says this isn't Drixx's scum game, and as she can't be protecting him as a partner, I can only assume that assessment is honest, or scum!Anen wishes to keep Drixx around. I don't think the latter is the case.

I'm less clear on Bulbazoor, but I see what seems to be town-motivated confusion and frustration. I wish he were a bit more active, but I'm not interested in lynching him today unless it's a compromise lynch.
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Post Post #655 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:05 pm

Post by Bulbazoor »

Not sure about this. He came and posted reads...UNVOTE:
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Post Post #656 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:41 pm

Post by Bulbazoor »

Any cases on doctor pepper?
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Post Post #657 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:42 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

Bulba - FWIW readlists can be faked. I would suggest that you look at the thought process behind readlists to see if there's original thought, town motivation behind the reads, whether the relative strengths of the reads make sense given the reasons given for them, as well as the progression of reads from one readlist to another.
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Post Post #658 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:32 pm

Post by Drixx »

In post 649, Aneninen wrote:I haven't got an idea what you meant by this, Drixx.
Isn't checking the wagon of a lynched scum VCA?


The theorycrafting thread for VCA applies large scale probability to predict where scum will be found on wagons, and attempts to analyze vote counts using probability.

What you did has a lot more to do with psychology and understanding people, and is much more sound for a game that is primarily psychological in nature.

Applying probabilistic VCA to an individual sample is idiocy of the highest form. What you did is very good work and hopefully the newbies pick up on it. You also are the
only
person who gave a town response to my test, so I think we have a small town block with you and I, presuming you trust me that far.

Radmann has now been active multiple times including in at least one other game, and still has not addressed the questions and such waiting for him here. I think that's a pretty damning observation, and I hope it's just that he hasn't had time to adequately give to the game rather than he's actually scum and has decided to just lurksack out and roll over and get lynched.

To the newer players: If you stick with forum mafia and you play a statistically significant amount of games, you will not be assigned to a scum role very often. Playing as scum is a very unique facet of this game and it requires exercising a very different skill set than playing town, along with being aware of and appearing to utilize the necessary skills to succeed as town. You can learn more from one game where you are assigned scum and give 100% effort but still lose the game than you might learn from playing 10 games as a Vanilla Townie. You should never, ever, quit or give up or flake when assigned a challenging town role or a scum role. Those are your chances to really advance and hone your skills.

If you don't believe me, you should check out my profile and look at my topics and see the SMITE large themed game I was recently in. I replaced into the game part way into its 3rd day, around two months after the game had begun. The scum team had already lost 3 of its original six members, and I replaced into a scum slot which had made a role claim (he didn't have much choice) that was going to get me caught ... it was only a matter of time. On top of that, there were all sorts of crazy hidden mechanics from various people's roles in play at all times, which made it even more challenging to play. In that game, scum wasn't really much of an "informed" minority. To make matters worse, my two still living partners were demoralized and basically lurked the rest of the way until they were killed out of the game.

I played that for nearly four months, despite giving myself perhaps a 1 in 1,000 chance to come away with a win from the effort. I knew that if I played out the hand I was dealt, I would learn a lot and improve, and I think that I did learn a lot and that I've improved dramatically because of that game. For something like 4 or 4 1/2 months, I carried the scum win condition alone ... and to make it all the sweeter, I carried it to the win.

I cannot emphasize this enough to the newer players in this game:
Never. Give. Up.
No matter what your alignment, role, or whatever. No matter how bad the situation sees. Use every situation to learn and grow. The things you learn playing this game have applications in the real world, so it even has the possibility to transcend being a hobby and become a tool for personal growth.

I'll get off my soap box now... but really. Don't give up.
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Post Post #659 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:05 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

While I really don't want to segue into a theory discussion (as that's not going to be a distraction to the game at large), I agree in large part to what Drixx has to say above. The only quibbles I have with it are nuanced, and can wait until the game is over. The takeaway advice "never give up" is sound advice regardless of alignment.

I played in an offsite game where as a lone SK, with some skill and a fair amount of of luck, eliminated 14 players through lynch and NK despite having a cop guilty on me on the first night (open setup, there were four cops of varying sanity, and I was the fourth to claim cop). This isn't a brag, I claim no great skill. Improbable things happen. Never give up.
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Post Post #660 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:10 pm

Post by Bulbazoor »

It has happened to me too. I have not killed as spy and claimed hit bp.
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Post Post #661 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:35 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

@Bulba

Do you have an idea where you want your vote to be? We're approaching a point where we we need to think about consolidating wagons.
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Post Post #662 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:38 pm

Post by Bulbazoor »

I do not even know. I am considering keeping it where it is. I also think that I would move it to not but unless we have more basis I won't
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Post Post #663 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:40 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

Well, at the moment, your vote is on no one.
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Post Post #664 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:42 pm

Post by Bulbazoor »

Oh though I had it on rad? Nvm. Will reread more into whoever he replaced and him. I already did my analysis on him tbh and his Ate is getting to me.
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Post Post #665 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:48 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

Should it concern me that you unvoted only a couple of hours ago?
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Post Post #666 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:49 pm

Post by Bulbazoor »

Why should it not? After all, town has to pay attentjon to every detail.
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Post Post #667 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:49 pm

Post by notscience »

@Ane 646- CD did come in and try to start a counterwagon iirc, so that point isnt exactly valid for him.
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Post Post #668 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:58 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

In post 667, notscience wrote:@Ane 646- CD did come in and try to start a counterwagon iirc, so that point isnt exactly valid for him.


I don't think that's an accurate summary of what happened. What I did was suggest that there were players who needed some pressure. My comment was simply surprise that no one was pressuring the delzdirs/Zentheperpetrator slot. I couldn't understand why everyone was letting that slot fly under the radar.
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Post Post #669 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:02 pm

Post by notscience »

In post 334, Cthulhu Dreaming wrote:
In post 332, Aneninen wrote:
We simply don't have time to start another wagon in 5 hours or so.


We have a 48 hour extension.


While yes you do change your tune, it dosnt mean you wrent feeling out the possibility of another wagon
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Post Post #670 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:09 pm

Post by radmann9 »

My apologies, I thought I addressed the questions on me at the moment. Granted I'm still at the top of the list, but doesn't instantly make me scum. The reasoning behind my being scum is what? I mistakenly forgot to say jailkeeper. My slot was scummy (as was Drixx's and Bulbazoor's to an extent). And I've been responding even if some are a bit delayed just from not being around. I did post some in the other game, but that was largely due to the fact that this game wasn't budging. I was watching both waiting for a question my way. I haven't 'given up' but Bulbazoor STILL hasn't produced any sort of substance to this game other than bouncing from target to target. Do you remember anything he's said of worth? Meanwhile I'm defending my case and still think the reasoning for my 'scum-read' is in question. My three in question would be Drixx, notscience, and bulbazoor.

Bulbazoor one minute says I'm town then next says I'm scum. Are you just easily swayed by no evidence or just not paying attention?
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Post Post #671 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:10 pm

Post by JumpsToConclusions »

In post 665, Cthulhu Dreaming wrote:Should it concern me that you unvoted only a couple of hours ago?


Yes, yes it should. If our goal with this lynch a potential mafia while at the same time getting rid of an unknown/wild card, I'd prefer lynching Bulba over Rad.
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Post Post #672 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:13 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

In post 669, notscience wrote:
In post 334, Cthulhu Dreaming wrote:
In post 332, Aneninen wrote:
We simply don't have time to start another wagon in 5 hours or so.


We have a 48 hour extension.


While yes you do change your tune, it dosnt mean you wrent feeling out the possibility of another wagon


You understand that was simply a statement of fact? One would think if I was trying to start another wagon, I would have voted somewhere other than the current favorite wagon, yes?
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Post Post #673 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:17 pm

Post by Cthulhu Dreaming »

In post 671, JumpsToConclusions wrote:
In post 665, Cthulhu Dreaming wrote:Should it concern me that you unvoted only a couple of hours ago?


Yes, yes it should. If our goal with this lynch a potential mafia while at the same time getting rid of an unknown/wild card, I'd prefer lynching Bulba over Rad.


That was largely a rhetorical question. It does concern me that he unvoted and apparently forgot that he did so. I prefer a radmann lynch, but if Bulbazoor becomes a contender for an alternate lynch, I will consider voting him.
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Post Post #674 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:23 pm

Post by JumpsToConclusions »

I am concerned about his vote behavior in later rounds, assuming our D2 is a mislynch. If he is town, mafia is not going to kill this guy and he is easily swayed which can be dangerous.

This is Bulba's vote pattern thus far: Radmann»juckter(Drixx)»Radmann»No vote»Drixx(juckter)»Radmann»No vote»Radmann»No vote

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