Mini 1687: Refraction Mafia (WINNER!)

[Persivul]

I have to be honest and say I have no idea what you even mean by Werewolf in a MS context. I've seen it used as a synonym for Mafia elsewhere, but have no idea what you are talking about here.

Here werewolf in a normal game is the same as a second mafia faction. There's no cult features.

Since a scum was NK'd, we have either a town vigilante or a third faction/independent. When I say werewolf, you can think of it as second mafia faction if you like.

[Tere]

We're in a mini normal though - I guess reading the normal rules at http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game it's possible but not likely IMO

Why is Frogger reading town to you?

[toolenduso]

Well I

was

going to push a Shinobi lynch right off the bat, but I did not expect to have a scum flip. And I certainly didn't expect BBT to flip scum. So now I want to go back and look at interactions with BBT.

Unfortunately the choice of target makes me think that this was an anti-town kill. By the end of the day I think BBT was being pretty widely townread, which is the kind of target an anti-town player would choose. I don't know who, if anyone besides Thor, had BBT anywhere close to the top of their scum list. So that also points to an anti-town kill.

And within even that possibility, I would hazard a guess that we're playing against two mafia factions. BBT's faction was "Infrared Mafia" and not just "Mafia."

Which would also suggest, I believe, two players on each mafia team? I've never played multiball in a mini before, but that seems right to me, since the usual setup has three scum and you would have to make the two mafia factions equal.

I'll post my wagon analysis stuff next post.

[Bellaphant]

@ pers, like tere said it seems unlikely, and I hadn't seen it before, hence my initial reaction to you mentioning it - you seemed pretty confident in it as a possibility. What you've said abiut the preview post wss interesting, though, and I'll come back to you when I'm not phone posting.

@ tere, talk to me about tex?

[Bellaphant]

EBWOP - tool's post makes sense, I though 'infra red' was just a light type, but it could be a scum type. I also agree that very few people would've killed bbt as they were scum reading him - ia it just anti town, or could it have been the other faction who did think he was scum?

[toolenduso]

(Removed references to plot and BBT).

Spoiler: Titus wagon

-Frogger: OMGUS vote to start off with, much like the rest of his play this game. Honestly I don't find Titus's case all that convincing purely because of the too scummy to be scum thing. The point about her wagon not crumbling after her claim doesn't hold water because plot counterclaimed like immediately. The actions just look too transparent, like he doesn't have any caution.
-Shinobi: Naked vote, sheeping, doesn't even really talk that much about Titus as the wagon progresses. Lol. Like half of his responses to Titus are him defending himself. Even #1478 feels weird. Like that kid who just started hanging out with a new group of kids at summer camp and he's trying to react to everything they show him because he doesn't know how else to act. Weird analogy but hopefully you see the point.
-Pers: Vote on Titus in #1384 does look kinda scummy. He's cautioning town about hopping on wagons as he hops on a wagon. It feels like he's trying to look like town.
-Bella: Has a couple of posts where she appears to be debating over whether or not to vote Titus. I feel very conflicted about this because it's what you would expect town to do. Note my choice of wording: it's what you would

expect

town to do. As in, if Bella were scum and were worried about jumping on the wagon so late, it makes sense that she would do this. On the other hand, I was also cautious about joining the Titus wagon. Fuck. I wish I could find something more definitive in this because I feel like it's an important arc to look at.

Spoiler: Off the wagon

-Thor: Was actually on the Titus wagon and unvoted. Something I could see experienced scum doing, given the momentum that wagon had. Makes sense from a town perspective too since Thor has/had a scumread on BBT and I

think

he unvoted the Titus wagon because BBT got on it. Anyway, I feel like the claim will dictate his read better than his interaction with the Titus wagon anyway.
-Lapsa: I will be beyond shocked if Lapsa is scum this game. I'm not even going to explain it because I kind of feel like I shouldn't but Lapsa is town.
-Tex: Wasn't around at the time all of the Titus stuff went down and wasn't posting elsewhere on site, so. Not much to talk about here.
-Tere: Same as Tex except Tere was trying to catch up and couldn't keep up with the maelstrom that happened at the end of the day. Can't blame her, town or scum.
-Zor: Pretty much in the same boat with Zor that I'm in with Bella, but with the scale tipped toward suspicion on this one. I asked Zor about Titus before I hammered because I wanted people to be on the record to look at associatives after the flip. So Zor gives a response in #1466, and it's kind of wishy-washy stuff from going back through the Titus/abuse ISOs. And in earlier posts he had all this suspicion of the Titus/abuse slot as this whole clusterfuck at the end of the day was going on. So why not vote Titus? See, this is what I would expect scum to do: Not really commit fully because they're scared to jump on a wagon they know is on town. But then...yes, I was also hesitant about Titus. It's not really definitive just because it would make a lot of sense for scum to be off the wagon and just by sheer lack of being around that could have been Tere and/or Tex.

tl;dr -- Shinobi looked the worst. Need to reconsider this in light of BBT flipping scum, though.

I also put together a quick list of all the people who were on wagons on players I'm pretty sure are town (and in the case of plot, now confirmed town) and who I know are town. Color coded, green is town and red is scum, obv.

Titus

wagon:

-Frogger,

plot

, Shinobi,

BBT

, pers, Bella

Thor wagon:

-

BBT

,

plot

, Frogger, Bella

Note: Shin said he would vote Thor to avoid a no-lynch, then Thor claimed and the wagon broke down.

Tool wagon:

-texcat, shinobi, frogger, bella, persivul

Lapsa wagon:

-abuse,

plot

, math, frogger

Plot wagon:

-CD, Shinobi, CB

Wagon counts:

-Frogger: 4
-Bella/CD: 4
-

Plot

: 3
-Shin: 3
-

BBT

: 2
-pers/math: 2
-CB/tere: 1
-texcat: 1

[Persivul]

We're in a mini normal though - I guess reading the normal rules at http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game it's possible but not likely IMO

The first point under setup in that link:

The game should have at least one Mafia or Werewolf group (of at least two members). A second anti-town group can be given a separate Mafia family name, or can be a Werewolf group. There should be no more than two mafia/werewolf factions, and no more than one Serial Killer.

A werewolf group is well within the normal guidelines. Also note that early on my slot assumed a 10:3 setup, and others noted that that wasn't necessarily the case. 9:2:2 and other combinations are possible.

A scum was killed. There must be some explanation for that. If you think a werewolf group is unlikely, you necessarily think that either a SK or town vigilante is more likely. Why is that?

Why is Frogger reading town to you?

I'd prefer to hold off on that for now. Suffice it to say that I'm comfortable that frogger isn't mafia/werewolf, but I haven't ruled him out as SK. I've never seen him work alone so that could be tricky. His tone has been different this game, but so has mine to some extent. People do have RL moods that come through in their posts.

[toolenduso]

Actually yeah, duh. Two players on each scum faction would be the maximum since three on each faction would mean 7 town vs. 6 scum and that's just silly.

One player on each faction also seems like it would be too townsided to me, but if anybody has seen that kind of setup before then let me know.

[Persivul]

@ pers, like tere said it seems unlikely, and I hadn't seen it before, hence my initial reaction to you mentioning it - you seemed pretty confident in it as a possibility. What you've said abiut the preview post wss interesting, though, and I'll come back to you when I'm not phone posting.

Of course I'm confident in it as a possibility, as it is indeed a possibility. That's not debatable. There were two NKs and one was mafia. I listed three possibilities and asked if I were missing any. Did you people not see BBT's name in red? There must be some explanation.

[toolenduso]

So actually, if there are two scum factions then I have absolutely no problem voting Shinobi. See analysis above, as well as posts from yesterday. I'll try to consolidate my points on him later.

VOTE: Shinobi

[Persivul]

IMO likely setups are:

-10:3 with a town vig. This might generally be overpowered for town, but considering BBT's flip we might be in a high powered game (but not role madness as Titus is known VT).

-9:2:2

-9:3:1

Since much is being made of plot's associative method, this could be important. The results might be off if we're looking for a single scum faction, but there are really 2, or even a SK.

[Tere]

I haven't been playing here that long but I've read a fair few 10:3s and 10:3:1s but not seen a 9:2:2 yet, that's all.

And yeah I read what you quoted. That's why I linked it.

@Bella, I am worrying tex is skating a bit, and I am misliking that BBT has nothing bad to say about her when she was def middle of the pack for me reading through. That's why she's moved down to my would consider lynching pile.

I haven't even read Plot's read thing behind the spoilers yet because I am assuming OMG numbers.

[Persivul]

I'm not using plot's method either, because that method would turn this from a game into a chore for me. But, other people are using it and they should consider that we're probably not looking for 10:3.

[Fro99er]

We probably aren't looking for 10:3 I agree.

But it's still useful to find either the 2 or the 3 in a 9:2:2 or 9:3:1

[Persivul]

Yes, or the 1. The point is that the dynamics might be different, particularly for an independent SK.

[Fro99er]

Right. I'm more looking at it as finding BBT's partner or partners since we know he's not the 1

[Persivul]

How does shinobi look wrt BBT?

[Fro99er]

Will take a look after work. BBT kept pushing shining as scum so I'm inclined to say shin is a second faction/SK or town, but not BBTs partner.

But I'll look in more depth after work

[Fro99er]

BBT kept trying to get me to see shin as scum especially, so it was BBT cozying to me to try to get a lynch of someone not his scumbuddy...so shin is definitely not BBTs partner

[Zoronos]

CB is probably town. I haven't had time to dig through BBT's iso yet, but it is very rare for scum to hard-town-read eachother early or visibly buddy their partners. CB was his first 'I've been thinking like this guy, so he's town' read, which means it's more likely BBT was buddying CB than he was defending a scumbro.

Not going to have much time to do stuff until tonight or tomorrow.

[Persivul]

CB is probably town. I haven't had time to dig through BBT's iso yet, but it is very rare for scum to hard-town-read eachother early or visibly buddy their partners. CB was his first 'I've been thinking like this guy, so he's town' read, which means it's more likely BBT was buddying CB than he was defending a scumbro.

Not going to have much time to do stuff until tonight or tomorrow.

Assuming 2 anti-town factions, that just indicates that CB wasn't BBT's partner, but doesn't necessarily mean he's town.

[Zoronos]

Eh, setup speculation is largely pointless. I PM'ed the mod to ask what Infrared Mafia meant, and he just said it meant 'he was scum'.

(Setup spec is actually kind of scummy, tbh. It looks like content without advancing town, and especially after a mafia has been shot its imperative for the mafia to find and stop any SK that may exist. Yes, I realize town also want to stop any SK's, but the mafia vs sk distinction doesn't matter to town, whereas its critical to mafia)

[toolenduso]

I would argue that setup spec is pretty important right now, and #1544 is a very good example of why it's important. We shouldn't go around calling people town based on their interactions with flipped scum if there's a good chance that there's a second mafia faction.

I don't know why you're thinking about the possibility of an SK while dismissing the possibility of there being a second scum faction...

[toolenduso]

Did you really expect the mod to give you details about what "infrared mafia" meant...?

[Fro99er]

I don't know why you're thinking about the possibility of an SK while dismissing the possibility of there being a second scum faction...

Who is dismissing this?