UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #275 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:11 pm

Post by Tammy »

In post 65, Shanba wrote:Different to face to face for sure...

also I haven't played a forum mafia game in a long time, so this is taking some getting back used to.


This is one of those subtext things that is probably lost on me but it instinctually bugs me.

I only hesitate here because I was pretty sure scum used this excuse in an offsite game recently and it turned out he really was rusty and hadn't played in years. But it still feels a bit out of place here among a small group of friends.
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Post Post #276 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:16 pm

Post by Tammy »

Something feels off about the porochaz/nexus/cdb interaction on page four.

If prozac turns out to be a mafia tracker, nexus might be his partner. But there's cdb's town read to contend with there.

~~~

I kinda want to vote Shanba because my predecessor did. Can anyone tell me how good of a scum hunter primate is? I've never played with him before and it would be nice if I could trust his reads.
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Post Post #277 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:30 pm

Post by Tammy »

In post 104, Shanba wrote:
I like Ampersand, CDB and nexus this game so far.

In post 105, Shanba wrote:I'd like to note here that I am actually really paranoid about nexus, so take my reads on him with a grain of salt.


I'm not sure what to make of this. On the one hand I hate that he? has nexus as a town read in one post and not even a minute later expresses paranoia on nexus with absolutely no indication why. On the other hand, I know how contradictory I can be when my head and gut are fighting, but I'm not seeing an indication of this fight here, so I don't know why there's a turn around in less than a minute.

If you like CDB, do you not trust his read on nexus?

In post 112, Nexus wrote:Didn't realise inspie has only posted 3 times.

Scum shirley can't be two of the lowest posters. SHIRLEY NOT


I have a naked gun chuckle here, and I want to call it town cuz funny is town. It is known.

In post 119, AurorusVox wrote:I've clearly claimed an only town role so you should all sheep me and lynch poro.


As I was reminded in Skype this past weekend, no it could have been werewolf too :/ (This serves no purpose in this game since he didn't flip it, but I did totally let LLD skate by as a mason because I forgot about the ww mason. Just reliving my shame.)

Also, quote striping woooooo! (It's getting late. Don't mind me.)
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Post Post #278 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:44 pm

Post by Ampersand »

In post 274, Tammy wrote:Oh I remember, this is the only post I worried about from Ampersand.

In yoloville, CES made a similar type of "mislynch" slip and I should have paid more attention to it when Vi pointed it out.

Well CES was referring to the Scumdon invitational, where he was scum, and Shanba was the Day 1 mislynch. So that is the game where CES knew that Shanba was town.

Also you should ask Patrick about how often scumslips are valid. :]

In post 269, Tammy wrote:One thing that did keep repeating to me in the dream though was Nexus' assertions that he got his favorite role. I don't remember seeing anyone react to that at all and it kinda surprised me that he's on people's suspect list while doing something that I thought would be familiar or that would spark a response. I'm not sure what to make of that. Maybe I'm misremembering how many times he said it.

Woops, I had forgotten this. I don't actually remember what Nexus' favourite role is, although now I'm thinking about it I have a guess. It did make me think he was town on D1 though, that is true. People who give very early reactions to their role I generally think are town because I do that more often as town myself (as scum I often haven't decided what I want to fakeclaim at that point).

That said, right now everyone has something that makes me think they might be town:
* Nexus was pretty active on D1 and there is the role thing
* CDB's reaction to being the first wagon seemed town
* Elmo has made some good comments
* Primate/Tammy have also made some good comments
* Porochaz I think is town mainly for the claim
* Shanba seems more engaged than I would expect him to be as scum, and has made some good comments.

Hmm so for a lot of people it comes down to 'they've said some things that seem like legitimate scumhunting to me'. I'm probably being too generous with my definition here, although I maintain that this game is harder than the games I read most of in Team Mafia, where I felt several scum were fairly obvious in their lack of scumhunting. I will try and do a proper re-read soon though, because that should help, and evidently I've already forgotten stuff.

I'm switching to Shanba now though, because looking back just briefly, although he's posted more than Primate/Elmo, I think he's actually been less insightful, and the post I'd marked him as town for () doesn't look that amazing in retrospect.

Plus I think Shanba-scum would also be fairly likely to make the hito-kill.

VOTE: Shanba

Tammy - I did mention the CDB-tracked-nowhere when CES and I were talking about the possibility of a Nexus-CDB scumteam yesterday, he didn't seem bothered by it. At the time I thought that it would be be fine as it just means the other scum made the kill. But now I think about it, in a 2:7 game, would the scum be likely to have two power roles? Although it is possible they don't, or that one of their powers is a passive and/or negative utility (e.g. reflexive doctor).

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Post Post #279 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:44 pm

Post by Ampersand »

Dammit.
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Post Post #280 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:53 pm

Post by Tammy »

I need to go to sleep. I'll pick up from 135 tomorrow.

Thanks Fenchurch. I'll respond to anything I need to tomorrow as well. But I will say that the reason why I asked what CES thought about the no track on CDB was because in NY 146 when he replaced in he gave a statistical reason why he was likely not scum because of a no track on him/or vanilla result, damn now I'm second guessing that and will have to look back. If it was a track, I might have another question. So, tomorrow.
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Post Post #281 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:47 am

Post by Shanba »

In post 278, Tammy wrote:
In post 104, Shanba wrote:
I like Ampersand, CDB and nexus this game so far.

In post 105, Shanba wrote:I'd like to note here that I am actually really paranoid about nexus, so take my reads on him with a grain of salt.


I'm not sure what to make of this. On the one hand I hate that he? has nexus as a town read in one post and not even a minute later expresses paranoia on nexus with absolutely no indication why. On the other hand, I know how contradictory I can be when my head and gut are fighting, but I'm not seeing an indication of this fight here, so I don't know why there's a turn around in less than a minute.

If you like CDB, do you not trust his read on nexus?


For point 1, that was deliberate - I thought read him as town, but didn't trust my own read.

And on CDB - no, not espcially. Filtering cdb's read through my own read on cdb doesn't leave an awful lot of certainty. Like, first I have to think cdb is town, then I have to weight that he could be town and wrong, then I have to triangulate his own certainty (which seems high but, you never really know what's going on in someone's head) and only then can you convert that into a read strength for yourself.

Unvote


There was some insightful stuff here, and I always like when someone has the same reaction I did to posts - in particular, the Fenchurch "scummy" post thing.

My strongest scumread now is probably prozac again. Hrm.
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Post Post #282 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:48 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Gonna read over some stuff during work this evening.
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Post Post #283 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:48 am

Post by Ampersand »

In post 282, Tammy wrote:But I will say that the reason why I asked what CES thought about the no track on CDB was because in NY 146 when he replaced in he gave a statistical reason why he was likely not scum because of a no track on him/or vanilla result, damn now I'm second guessing that and will have to look back. If it was a track, I might have another question. So, tomorrow.

Tracker innocents tend to have some value, yes. I don't care about this one so much because I don't really feel like CDb would've made the kill (e.g. if Shanba pushed for a hitokill, then I think the natural default is for him to make it) and also because Prozac's alignment is still unknown.

Channel, you should vote for Shanba. Deadline is on Sunday!
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Post Post #284 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:09 am

Post by Patrick »

Votecount

Shanba (1) -- Ampersand
Elmo (1) -- Porochaz

Not voting: ChannelDelibird, Elmo, Tammy, Nexus, Shanba
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Post Post #285 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:29 pm

Post by Tammy »

I've had a very long day, so I'll try to finish up with my reread as much as I can.

I guess it helps that almost nobody is around though :/
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Post Post #286 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:31 pm

Post by Elmo »

I lost a post because I knocked a watch off something and it landed directly on F5. First time for everything.

In post 264, Nexus wrote:I'm always uncomfortable when CDB says he town reads me as heavily as he has today.
Why, what happened previously?

CDB's stated reasons were that Nexus has been invested and trying to make things happen, and that he sometimes struggles to replicate his unpopular beliefs when scum. From memory, Nexus has sat comfortably on Porochaz from early Day 1 where it was fairly clear there was an appetite for it; there was also the fact that he passed up the Inspie wagon and I haven't reread that still, but that seems like it should be weak relative to the overall pattern of his play. I await Nexus' reread but at the moment, it doesn't fit very well.

In post 274, Tammy wrote:I don't think the two of them can be partnered though, or are very likely. If cdb does feel, and it's substantiated by other games, that he can read Nexus, I doubt if they were partnered he'd be likely to read him as strongly town because I don't think* Nexus has a very strong scum game and would likely be caught which would put cdb in a bad position. And with you guys all knowing each other so well and being friends I think he'd be less likely to get away with town reading his scum partner Nexus, who would likely be caught as scum, and then there he'd be looking too obvious.
If they are partnered, I figure it's basically either bus Nexus hard early, or super town read him early to keep him alive, it's really awkward no matter what. My impression is that CDB doesn't strongly bus that often. And seems like it kinda has been working? But this still feels like I'm being dumb. Basically I need someone to tell me why my theory is stupid so I can stop considering it.

In post 268, Tammy wrote:This felt stretchy. I didn't think this felt contradictory.
I was more interested in the fact he seemed to "understand" the votes on him, which seems less likely to come from town. I think I skimmed back to see what he said about the votes on him, interpreted the first quote as saying he looked town and thought it worth asking about.

Hmm, I should vote but it's, uh, late. Tammy has posted a bunch of stuff which I haven't read properly but seems reasonably townish so far, which is mildly annoying since that leaves me with Nexus and CDB, and, well, is it that easy? It just feels off because I'd expect CDB to get nervous around Nexus, but he just seems very nonchalant about the whole thing. I dunno. Consider this a nominal vote for CDB.

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Post Post #287 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:46 pm

Post by Tammy »

It is annoying that Prozac has not been around at all. If he is the town tracker, he is most likely dying tonight and I'd expect something at least.
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Post Post #288 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:48 pm

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In post 139, Nexus wrote:because av pinged my scumdar as well but I was also unsure on INSPIE and it's TOO MANY SCUM READS FUCK MY LIFE.

I'll vote Prozac > AV > Inspie i think


This post felt off but I can't exactly put my finger on why.
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Post Post #289 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:56 pm

Post by Tammy »

In post 149, ChannelDelibird wrote:
In post 138, Ampersand wrote:CDB: you have inspi as most scummy, neutral on AVox, and Poro as not voteworthy. What are your reasons for these reads, please?


Inspie isn't anything that I haven't said in thread but I feel like his entrance was empty and unhelpful, and his subsequent justification of it seemed like he was making it up a bit after the fact. I liked your #77 in that regard.

AVox is probably up from neutral to scummy now. I thought his first couple of posts were pretty nondescriptly Avoxy and was waiting to get a bit more input but his interactions with you on Wednesday don't look great. The fact that his last posts are asking a couple of clarificationy questions on which he never followed up doesn't sit well to me - looks more like scum posting to be seen posting rather than town actually trying to get answers to figure out anything.

Prozac just seems pretty town. He's here, and he's making some kind of effort even if he's admittedly struggling to get into things at times. His reads are maybe not meshing with others' perfectly and he's had some heat with which to deal but he doesn't strike me as particularly rattled by it.


The reasonings for these feel like they should be closer in your reads than farther apart.
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Post Post #290 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:05 pm

Post by Tammy »

Okay yeah, I'll pick back up at page 8 tomorrow as I'm about to pass out. I have company coming in this morning and a busy weekend but I will make sure I finish with my reread and give my complete thoughts. That should happen tomorrow at some point. I want to read back over Hito's early points again though.

Can someone tell me what swagger tell is?
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Post Post #291 (ISO) » Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:23 pm

Post by Ampersand »

Hito explains swagger tell in .

In post 286, Elmo wrote:Hmm, I should vote but it's, uh, late. Tammy has posted a bunch of stuff which I haven't read properly but seems reasonably townish so far, which is mildly annoying since that leaves me with Nexus and CDB, and, well, is it that easy? It just feels off because I'd expect CDB to get nervous around Nexus, but he just seems very nonchalant about the whole thing. I dunno. Consider this a nominal vote for CDB.

I've definitely thought at times it could just be those two.
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Post Post #292 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2015 3:55 am

Post by Porochaz »

It would help if I posted. I am still working out why I am struggling to read people. Even the people I find town, like Ampersand and Nexus, I am iffy about. Because CES is tricksy and I've been wrong about Fenchurch so many times. Playwise I'd suspect CDB the most, but the track result makes it unlikely (but not impossible), Elmo, there is a IIoA there, but I am doubting myself over whether thats just indicative of the whole game, and Im looking at Elmo, because there is a lack of posting. I feel like I could vote Shanba as well, I get the impression that his reads are all surface ones, his last post I don't like, it felt like too many words for a simple point, which is a theme throughout his posts. Too many words for a lack of depth seems like a shitty reason to vote someone. Especially when I am not sure about anyone else.
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Post Post #293 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:52 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Read is actually happening right this minute. Don't worry about me re: deadline and stuff. Just got this page left to finish off.
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Post Post #294 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:54 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 286, Elmo wrote:My impression is that CDB doesn't strongly bus that often. And seems like it kinda has been working? But this still feels like I'm being dumb. Basically I need someone to tell me why my theory is stupid so I can stop considering it.


Last time that I was scumbuddies with Nexus, I bussed him into a volcano.
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Post Post #295 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:55 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 289, Tammy wrote:


The reasonings for these feel like they should be closer in your reads than farther apart.


I don't really see what you mean.
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Post Post #296 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:58 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 261, Elmo wrote:CDB having that many town reads seems off at this point.


Why? Ampersand, at least, are on record as feeling similarly. And I acknowledged that something must be wrong with my townreads because I have too many of them, anyway.

Hey, CDB, what's your read on Primate/Tammy now, and why?


I thought Primate was pretty solidly town throughout for just general stuff (I've obviously been distracted, so I don't really remember much of how it formed other than that he just struck me as town). I'm used to other people providing most of my Tammy reads for me, I think, but nothing that she's said so far specifically damages that read, but really I've got nothing on her either way so far. I'm not sure that this is a playerlist likely to push her into extreme readability as others are.
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Post Post #297 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2015 8:04 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

OK, let's organise a few reads as things stand.

STRONG TOWN - I would be very surprised if any of these were scum and I can remember why I feel so strongly

Nexus
Ampersand

LEAN TOWN

Prozac - probably not worth lynching based on claim? Think he's seemed relatively OK in terms of honesty as well
Elmo - investment level seems to have risen lately while others fall, suggests protown actually wanting us to pull together a good lynch rather than slide into a crap one via inactivity

LEAN/ED TOWN BUT KINDA FORGOT WHY

Tammy - Might have to consider this possibility, I guess? Maybe I should be worrying about the replace-out. But I did think Primate was town

HAS HAD TOWN MOMENTS

Shanba - Reasonably likely to have been complicit in the hitokill but I did think that one post I mentioned earlier sounded very town. But probably not as town as the others

I guess I kinda forgot that this game was quite as small as it is. Knowing that two of those reads are wrong, now that I actually write them all down in front of my own face, is pretty concerning.

VOTE: Shanba is probably where I feel most comfortable but I ought to look again at Tammy's slot, Prozac and Elmo before deadline.
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Post Post #298 (ISO) » Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:53 am

Post by Shanba »

Well, let's do this properly, I guess

Elmo, what's your current read on me? What's your read on prozac?

Ctrl F my name in nexus' iso found 0 mentions of me

Nexus, what's your current read on me?

Answers by tomorrow would be appreciated, I'd like to have time to claim/lay out final thoughts if necessary. The pace of this game has been pretty bad, but I sorta expected that I guess.
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Post Post #299 (ISO) » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:26 am

Post by Patrick »

Votecount

Shanba (2) -- Ampersand, ChannelDelibird
Elmo (1) -- Porochaz

Not voting: Elmo, Tammy, Nexus, Shanba
7 alive, 4 to lynch.

Nexus was the only player over 48 hours, so I've prodded him. The deadline hits tomorrow at 8pm GMT.
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