Open 604 - Fire and Ice - Fire mafia wins!

[vonflare]

Cool I got a pagetop!

Vote count:

TheCow

(5) - hayotoBL, bellaphant, gameplay, mist7676, Klick

Ika

(1) - ConManMick

Swordmaster

(1) - ika

Mist7676

(1) - TheCow

Prolapsed Brain

(1) - Radja

klick

(1) - Firebringer

not voting

-
Sword Master
Tatsuya Kaname
Prolapsed brain

With 13 players it's 7 to lynch.

Day 1 will end in (expired on 2015-07-24 15:00:00)

Also, let's try to keep things civil here, mkay?

[TheCow]

I won't be home for maybe 30 more minutes. If I'm hammered by then, I will be unimpressed with the townies.

[Klick]

@vonflare:

Firebringer is voting me.

[vonflare]

@vonflare:

Firebringer is voting me.

Thank you.

Fixed.

[Firebringer]

VOTE: TheCow

Don't hammer till he gives a response.

[TheCow]

Fire, no matter what my response is, I'm sure any member of the Mafia could reasonably hammer after I post -- before town has a chance to unvote -- and lock my lynch in. I'm still typing up my post now, of course, but it seems unwise to leave things so close, as whoever hammers me could just say that I "looked scummy" anyway.

[Firebringer]

VOTE: UNVOTE

There they can't hammer.

[TheCow]

Alright, this first part will just be me going more in detail about the possibilities that I saw when I made my plan -- if you want to call it that -- and the purpose or balances around each.

My new-player comments are seen as genuine new player comments.

I would not seem like a large threat to scum, and would likely not be targeted by them. The doctor would not see me as being in danger and would likely not target me. Probability of a doctor throwing a save at random goes from 21/121 to 19/100, or 17%->19%, assuming I am doing my math correctly. This means that my maneuver becomes worth while, even if the gains are small.

My new-player comments are seen by town and scum. Either party act immediately.

What's happening now. The maneuver fails, and I need to attempt to avoid a mislynch, as I am doing now.

My new-player comments are seen by town but not scum. Town does not act immediately.

Doctor sees me as scum, see situation 1. Situation 2 applies to D2, as Town will likely call me out at that point.

My new-player comments are seen by mafia but not town.

Because I am a below-average player (at least, I think I am. I don't know what "average" is around these parts) it is better that I am killed instead of someone else, making this a positive net-exchange.

Scenario 4 was the one I was going for, while 1 and 3 were my more neutral cases. Scenario 2 is obviously worst-case scenario, seeing as if things go poorly tonight and tomorrow night, we could lose majority by D3. As I said, because I doubt my scumhunting abilities, I resorted to plotting right off the bat. Arguably, I could have gone for the same effect, as said, by attempting to act extremely pro-town. I actually did try, though as well can all see, that clearly did not go over well, considering I'm two votes away from being lynched. Clearly I need to work on not sucking ._.

As someone who regularly makes (terrible and unbalanced) games, I am generally quite aware of how game mechanics work in , and wouldn't overlook something such as a secondary scum faction while playing.

I could see how an awareness of a second informed minority could be a sort of scum tell, in a way -- having something like that to worry about is stranger for Mafia than it is for Town, generally. But maybe I joined the game for the very reason that it is a multiball game (which I did) and would be in constant awareness of this fact through the entire game (which I am).


In any case, I'm going to start going through some things one by one, perhaps through multiple from here, so point out anything that I'm missing so I can fill in the blanks reasonably. Posting this now to give you all something to work with while I grab a snack and then type out more stuff.

[TheCow]

Actually, I'm going to bed now. I work at 5AM tomorrow morning and I need to be up in 6 and a half hours to make it there in time.

[hayatoBL]

TheCow: Do you have any reason at all to believe that your ideal scenario is more likely to happen than the other presented scenarios?

Because if you don't have any reason, it shows that you don't really care about the outcome of the plan. What I think you really care is, that you have the oppurtunity to initiate said plan and the oppurtunity to explain to us, hoping to score some town-cred for trying to "sacrifice yourself for Town".

I can tell you right now, that your worse case scenario is more likely to happen than the rest of the scenarios simply because we have more Townies than scums and also because scums are also hunting for mafia from the other faction. There's no reason for anyone not to act immediately.

This plan is poorly made, not well-thought off and I think it was meant to show how you're ready to sacrifice yourself for Town. An attempt to gain town-cred and saved by the doc Night 1.

Someone has asked your reads, which (I think) you haven't responded to.

[hayatoBL]

Radja: I would like you to rephrase my case on TheCow in a way you understood it and tell me what about it you disagree. Twice you expressed disagreement with his lynch without mentioning any specifics you actually disagree with.

Bella: Then, what about 101? I don't see any agressive plays there.

[hayatoBL]

Klick and Bella could be town.

Though, I think it is less likely for scum not to take the advantage of this game being a multiball and go hunt for scum, earning town cred and winning the doc's favour. Which forces me to tone down my town-read on the both of them.

My previous comment on Radja is probably prematurely made. He did made one comment on it. But seeing as he is the only one who oppose TheCow wagon, I would like for him to do it anyway.

I'll admit to not having analyse the talk between Klick, gameplay and Fire recently.

[ConManMick]

I think Klick is trying to actively drive town in a manner which will prove mutually beneficial, thus the various "cop on to yourself" posts directed at me and some others.
Getting deep into WIFOM territory myself over trying to read TheCow.
Fire preventing a quick lynch is fairly pro town, but again, town points etc. etc.

[TheCow]

TheCow: Do you have any reason at all to believe that your ideal scenario is more likely to happen than the other presented scenarios?

Because if you don't have any reason, it shows that you don't really care about the outcome of the plan. What I think you really care is, that you have the oppurtunity to initiate said plan and the oppurtunity to explain to us, hoping to score some town-cred for trying to "sacrifice yourself for Town".

I can tell you right now, that your worse case scenario is more likely to happen than the rest of the scenarios simply because we have more Townies than scums and also because scums are also hunting for mafia from the other faction. There's no reason for anyone not to act immediately.

This plan is poorly made, not well-thought off and I think it was meant to show how you're ready to sacrifice yourself for Town. An attempt to gain town-cred and saved by the doc Night 1.

I cannot refute this. The meta here is different from what I'm used to. Really, I would think the two neutral results would have been the most likely to occur, but I severely misjudged. I had expected Mafia to wait on using the information if they had seen it, as I would think a late-game mislynch is more valuable than an early game one, correct me if I'm wrong. As for Town acting on it, I suppose the meta here is

better

different, as Town would normally not jump on that where I usually play.

Someone has asked your reads, which (I think) you haven't responded to.

I've been pretty busy RL with work and my other obligations lately. I have the next 2 days off and currently have few appointments so there'll be a spike of activity.

[ika]

cow is this your first game here?

[TheCow]

Second, though my first game I was inactive and ended up replacing out I think the start of D2? Something like that.

[Radja]

Hayato, my only idea is that there is no way he would ever play like this if he had a scum role. The fact that he expresses himself being expendable really points at town for me.

The fact that 3 of my townreads are on this wagon, does make me question it, though.

[Bellaphant]

Haya, I meant the tone. Don't worry.

I still wanna lynch the cow. Being mis-lynch bait is not pro-town. It's either that, fire or game for me today.

Radja is climbing up the null pile.
Con, more like that, pls.

[Klick]

Happy birthday vonflare!
Could we get a prod on Sword Master?

Speaking of,

@Sword Master:

You've been active elsewhere on-site. What's the deal? If you don't want to play with us, you should replace out. Otherwise, get your butt in here and start playing!

I'm agreeing on Radja, Bella. Leaning town on him at the moment.

[Bellaphant]

Page top for Von's scum-day!

[TheCow]

I can't read Ika. He seem like the kind of player who I would need to play a few games with to read properly -- which I haven't. On one hand, he has yet to really progress the game further, or post meaningful reads, but then again, it could just be some sort of non-playing as opposed to avoiding progression.

Radja also has few posts, but looking at them, he seems to be in the middle (as in, not taking a side) on issues. Most posts, if you would bear with me for a second, tries to "pull things to the middle, if that makes sense? #117, 122, 160 as an example. He "forgot this was multiball" in post 163.
Another post since I started this. I think this post would speak loader after my death, if I were to be lynched, rather than now, but with 163 he seems pretty town-like.

I wonder if #26 was serious or not, on Bella's part. That aside, made several small early posts, "baselining" players. If Bella has not played with those players before, that makes sense, so just leaving that over there in the corner of idle thoughts for now. I'll say now, Bella is getting a Town read from me. It's a bit early for deep analysis or something of that sort, but she seems to be pushing for discussion and attempting to add ideas to what is being discussed.

ConMan's RVS until post #73, by the looks of things -- their 3rd to last post at the moment. Has a lot of posts that don't really amount to anything and has not really been pushing discussion much at all. Post #212 had some weird word choice, if you ask me, but it's good to see a post reading the current situation. Will be awaiting further information for now, until a more useful read can be made, but not liking it so far.

Tatsuya seems to be a new-ish player who's V/LA? Best to wait until Sunday when they're back before getting a good read off.

Sword is prodded and inactive.

gameplay seemed pretty sheep-like for the first while. Vote switching every other post and jumping around based on other reads, from what I understand. Says their producing content by sheeping (#167). Isn't content produced through meaningful posts/reads/the like? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I have to disagree on that point. In any case 85/89 is also pretty off putting, going through. At least, in the end, 168 gives some explanation to it. lol @187. Klick, it could be my lack of experience, but I don't understand your town read here. Would you mind elaborating for me?

Klick has been very active and pushing for progress, with 35 total posts. Has been making reads since page 1/2 (23/24,29/30). Notice how these votes/posts are both doubled: no hesitation. To me, that quick, albeit rash, game seems town like, to an extent. That's pretty early though, moving on. Seems like highly aggressive town to me (I could link a bunch of posts supporting this, but I think you all get the point).

Mist made some pretty early reads in post #57, which was a good start. Questioned the 4 vote early wagon, which seems pretty good IMO. Has been furthering the discussion, but I'm waiting for more information on this person. Nothing they say is pointing left or right to me, as far as alignment goes. She isn't scummy, though, so there's that. So yeah, waiting on this one for now.

Hasn't posted in a couple days (Prolapse, that is), so don't really know their opinion on the current situation, so need further information for sure. #55 is a weird post IMO, though it isn't really indicitive of alignment looking at it. In any case, the only reads they have posted, other than a "[firm] null" (129) on Tatsuyo, is a hayoto who apparently looks town-like to them (124). Need more information on this one for now, especially since it's been a while since last post.

Firebringer, post #47 is wonky, but I think a joke? 48, being mad at being voted, seems strange to me, until #114 where it is revealed that it is fake emotions. Well, that's what it looked like from the start to me, but posts such as #174 contradict that, so I'm confused about that much. Can someone confirm 171 as being true? If so, I could see them being something like "intense town", or something like that.

Hayato seems town-like so far. Has been making some good posts making good points. If my current situation is any indication, they're paying attention to the game and doing their research. Pushing the game forward, seemingly with the town in mind, so far. I don't want to comment much on my own situation, aside from what I've already posted (that would just be restating what I already said in previous posts, which would be a waste of my time), so I'll leave this read as is: town-like.


I hope this is readable. If there are any questions, I'll answer them to the best of my abilities.

[Bellaphant]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: gameplay

Hey Cow, thanks! Keep it up. 26 was mostly serious - it was TK, gameplay and con-man, for being overly committed to rvs lols. I was being harsh, but more posting hasn't hugely improved their position in my reads. So.

[Klick]

Klick, it could be my lack of experience, but I don't understand your town read here. Would you mind elaborating for me?

Post #182 is the main reason I'm feeling like gameplay is town. As scum watching me go after Firebringer, I don't think gameplay would try to pull a read from the situation. Instead, I think he would have kept talking about how annoyed he was about my play.

Admittedly it's weak reasoning, and I'm not ruling gameplay out at all. There's just not much else to go off of with that slot. If he doesn't continue providing content, I could see that just being a way for him to try and get town points from me.

[Prolapsed Brain]

Yeah, I need to catch up. Will try for that by tonight.

[Firebringer]

VOTE: Prolapsed Brain

This vote is to pressure you into contributing more!
I got nothing from you so far.