In post 473, HenryCabotLodge wrote:if anything, we can also draw conclusions from the wagon based on how the lynchee flips.
I will flip town, so why don't you start drawing conclusions now and find the scum before I am lynched? A couple of people are pushing really strong on me and the rest of the town is like "yeah-kinda-maybe". That shouldn't make me a good candidate.
In post 474, stoz wrote:I am doubtful that Bulba / NS scum would act in such unison, but I am sure that one of them has to be scum.
Whichever one of you is actually really town, please take a long had look at the other. Just read the other ones posts and think about it and see where it leads you.
In post 474, stoz wrote:
And what information do people hope to gain when I flip? Because that justification was used a lot in my last game and it resulted in lynching town every time.
I am doubtful that Bulba / NS scum would act in such unison, but I am sure that one of them has to be scum.
I considered that when I declared my intent to hammer you. If you flip town, I feel it implicates notscience quite a bit. You'll notice I still have my vote on him. I was uneasy about your play in the early to middle part of the game (which I expressed) and now you've suddenly become quite active now that you're on the block. Of course anyobdy, scum or town, is going to try to defend himself before lynching but the truth is your play has generally been very reactive and diffident so such a change in play does not make you look better, despite the fact it's all you can do. In other words, you dug yourself in a whole and on day 1, when there honestly isn't a whole lot in terms of substance to go by, it's pretty damning. Should you flip scum great! If not, my top scum suspect looks very bad. This lynch makes sense for me.
In post 473, HenryCabotLodge wrote:if anything, we can also draw conclusions from the wagon based on how the lynchee flips.
I will flip town, so why don't you start drawing conclusions now and find the scum before I am lynched? A couple of people are pushing really strong on me and the rest of the town is like "yeah-kinda-maybe". That shouldn't make me a good candidate.
I believe notscience is scum but it's obvious my case fell on deaf ears. As I said before, your play has not inspired any confidence from me and your lynch is acceptable to me. It also has the added benefit of shedding some light on notscience's vote pattern/ game philosophy. Moreover, I do think there is at least a decent chance of your being scum.
In post 478, JoramvanVugt wrote:Not science and thespio are still on top of my list, Stoz is probably one of the only players im like 99% sure of being town.
Because you had four votes on you already and HCL wanted you lynched before Joran, not to mention i was willing to hammer.
Now half the wagon on you has cold feet or something. I dont know what to do, but i do know that flash wagoning another player with just hours on the clock is a bad idea.
Ive already accepted that im not getting the lynch i want so i dont really care anymore. At least its an analyzable wagon - thats really the only thing these deadline crunch lynches are good for anyway.
Predit: no. No flash wagons. Stoz or Joram. Ill do either preference on Joram.
In post 0, Toomai wrote:Town-scum-NL rate: 180-51-7 (random lynching would give 185-53-0; the difference is [-2.15%]-[-0.79%]-[+2.94%])
If town is lynched D1, they go 68-112 (37.8%)
If scum is lynched D1, they go 7-44 (13.7%)
If there is no lynch D1, town goes 1-6 (14.3%)
day one lynches are important. without them we are starved for info. In the future, you need to make sure you get a day 1 lynch.
I think I'm dead now, so I'll just say I hope you get the information that town needs. I lost my first game so town please don't screw this up and make me go 0-2.
