Open 604 - Fire and Ice - Fire mafia wins!

[Wanderer-nl]

Actually, I'm feeling a little confused by thecow now. I'm also a little hung-over and I have some things to do so will reread these posts tonight and see if they make more sense then.

[hayatoBL]

He isn't more town than Mist. Like they are both equally not town, but just Mist seems more likely to flip scum to me. Especially given recent events. But ye say it your way.

Can we like compromise on a 3rd lynch?

So, you don't think ConMan is Town, but think he's not a good compromise lynch. An uncooperative non-Town read is a perfect compromise lynch to me. So you asking for a 3rd compromise lynch seems fake to me. What exactly is your idea for a compromise lynch?

Also, you could have suggested TheCow as a compromise lynch, but didn't put the effort, yet wanted someone to suggest a 3rd lynch. I mean, had you put out the case on Cow, probably people will agree with you and we could get TheCow as a compromise lynch. No?

[hayatoBL]

Actually, I'm feeling a little confused by thecow now. I'm also a little hung-over and I have some things to do so will reread these posts tonight and see if they make more sense then.

Thanks. A third opinion, a fourth opinion and so on....

[hayatoBL]

gameplay: Can you tell me why you decided not to meta me and also tell me why did you wanted to meta me initially?

Also, your scum-read on me. What was it about?

[MarioManiac4]

Ah, darn. There goes the tactical edge I was developing.

I was acting as a faox new town in order to appear slightly mafia-like by exaggerating my "new-ness". Since I have played so few games here before, I'm probably not recognizable by anyone in this game. Players might assume I'm new, some might not. In any case, I was hoping that either Mafia would look into my past, see I've played game, and perhaps think I was hiding something.

All in all, I wanted to increase the likely hood of me being shot tonight, if that makes sense.

Reading ISOs and I found scum
VOTE: The Cow

[MarioManiac4]

Alright, this first part will just be me going more in detail about the possibilities that I saw when I made my plan -- if you want to call it that -- and the purpose or balances around each.

My new-player comments are seen as genuine new player comments.

I would not seem like a large threat to scum, and would likely not be targeted by them. The doctor would not see me as being in danger and would likely not target me. Probability of a doctor throwing a save at random goes from 21/121 to 19/100, or 17%->19%, assuming I am doing my math correctly. This means that my maneuver becomes worth while, even if the gains are small.

Yet you won't help town by scumhunting while doing this.

My new-player comments are seen by town and scum. Either party act immediately.

What's happening now. The maneuver fails, and I need to attempt to avoid a mislynch, as I am doing now.

... well, that's a bit of a shit risk then...

My new-player comments are seen by town but not scum. Town does not act immediately.

Doctor sees me as scum, see situation 1. Situation 2 applies to D2, as Town will likely call me out at that point.

So you want to delay your lynch? If you are town being lynched later on is actually more harmful.

My new-player comments are seen by mafia but not town.

Because I am a below-average player (at least, I think I am. I don't know what "average" is around these parts) it is better that I am killed instead of someone else, making this a positive net-exchange.

And mafia would kill a mislynch

why?

Scenario 4 was the one I was going for, while 1 and 3 were my more neutral cases. Scenario 2 is obviously worst-case scenario, seeing as if things go poorly tonight and tomorrow night, we could lose majority by D3. As I said, because I doubt my scumhunting abilities, I resorted to plotting right off the bat. Arguably, I could have gone for the same effect, as said, by attempting to act extremely pro-town. I actually did try, though as well can all see, that clearly did not go over well, considering I'm two votes away from being lynched. Clearly I need to work on not sucking ._.

As someone who regularly makes (terrible and unbalanced) games, I am generally quite aware of how game mechanics work in , and wouldn't overlook something such as a secondary scum faction while playing.

I could see how an awareness of a second informed minority could be a sort of scum tell, in a way -- having something like that to worry about is stranger for Mafia than it is for Town, generally. But maybe I joined the game for the very reason that it is a multiball game (which I did) and would be in constant awareness of this fact through the entire game (which I am).


In any case, I'm going to start going through some things one by one, perhaps through multiple from here, so point out anything that I'm missing so I can fill in the blanks reasonably. Posting this now to give you all something to work with while I grab a snack and then type out more stuff.

Along with the bolded blue things I pointed out, why not at least try to scumhunt? Being seen as town by scumhunting, even if you don't catch scum, benefits town, as they won't lynch you. This matters a lot more than all the doctor shenanigans as you won't be lynched.

[TheCow]

Finish reading before making accusations please, we've all seen those exact observations made in-thread already.

[Firebringer]

Vote the cow to end this day!!! One less scum hopefully cross kill happens so towns got a chance

[vonflare]

Vote count:

Prolapsed brain

(3) - klick, TheCow, Ika

TheCow

(2) - Gameplay506, MarioManiac4

Ika

(1) - firebringer

not voting

-
hayotoBL
prolapsed brain
Radja
wanderer-nl
Pisskop

With 10 players it's 6 to lynch.

Day 1 will end in

(expired on 2015-08-08 15:00:00)!

[Prolapsed Brain]

(I've decided to do more frequent votecounts. U like?)

[vonflare]

[Prolapsed Brain]

No, seriously, that VC

was not there

when I posted.

[MarioManiac4]

Finish reading before making accusations please, we've all seen those exact observations made in-thread already.

I hate reading. It's annoying. Don't worry, it'll probably be easier to take me out with a nightkill then lynch me.

[Klick]

@Klick: I feel that vca you did is a little short-sighted. I wouldn't expect scum to vote the way you described it, then again, I don't really know how to do vca well so maybe there is something to it. How do you figure I'd be experienced enough to not kill Mist?

You strike me as a player that would at

least

think killing Mist is not the optimal option. She wasn't pushing hard on anyone or anything, and people thought she looked scummy. You yourself actually said you wanted to look at her more closely in the next dayphase, in Post #503. It also doesn't seem like you had a scumread on Mist, if what you said in #503 was your actual thoughts. If that's the case, you wouldn't kill her aiming for scum. Therefore, I see no motivation for you to kill her.

I'm probably just not bright enough to put the dots together, as I don't see how everything fits here. I can further elaborate my issue on your previous post and there will be more arrows than before, but meh, I don't feel like it's going to be fruitful.

So, I'm going to ask for a second opinion instead.

Maybe Klick(or anyone else)?

Does that post makes sense and is it a valid response to my issue on him or is he just trying to avoid adressing the issue by putting a lot of words to seem like he did?

I will feel somewhat incompetent, if the post actually made sense.

I am pretty confused on TheCow in general, admittedly, but I also think he believes what he's saying and isn't just spouting off random theory. I suspect Cow thought Mist was scum, and that combined with Radja being off the ConMan wagon would be what made the vote analysis interesting? That's just a guess. Regardless, Cow's thoughts seem genuine to me, whether they're from town or scum.

@everyone not voting Prolapsed Brain: ISO him. Then vote him.

[Klick]

Vote the cow to end this day!!! One less scum hopefully cross kill happens so towns got a chance

You're not voting Cow?

Firebringer, you should join me on Prolapsed.

[Klick]

kick i got a curve question:

why do you think you are alive over mist/bella?

Missed this. I think I probably didn't fit what the scum teams were intending to shoot at. Specifically, the Mist shot was aimed at scum most likely, so that scum team at least thought Mist was more likely to be scum than I was; while the Bella shot didn't give much information at all about that scum team. For whatever reason, Bella was a more appealing target to them than I was.

[Wanderer-nl]

Hayato: I think I figured out what it is that's confusing/bothering me about thecow's last posts. He's describing some sort of scumhunting technique, but not taking a stance on anything. It just feels so hollow.

thecow: What exactly could we conclude about Radja's slot after you flip? I feel like you're trying to tell us something without actually saying it and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I'm not sure about PBrain because I was scumreading him for the same reason I was scumreading Conman. But I'm not against the wagon on him because he does deserve the pressure.

[TheCow]

Hayato: I think I figured out what it is that's confusing/bothering me about thecow's last posts. He's describing some sort of scumhunting technique, but not taking a stance on anything. It just feels so hollow.

thecow: What exactly could we conclude about Radja's slot after you flip? I feel like you're trying to tell us something without actually saying it and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I'm not sure about PBrain because I was scumreading him for the same reason I was scumreading Conman. But I'm not against the wagon on him because he does deserve the pressure.

I am saying that we encounter a situation like this in a vote analysis: If I were hammered right then and there, with Radja positioned as he was, it might look like this:

(Note: I'm viewing the situation from the perspective of a living Town player, post lynch)

If I flipped town, and Radja is scum: Radja's scum partner would likely be one of the players on the wagon. He was against the Cow-wagon, though did not push against it very much, so this difference can be seen as the most important aspect of the stance. I would have been used as a means to distance the two scum partners. Does this make sense?

If I flipped scum, the situation would be pretty similar, still assuming a mafia-Radja. If we were apart, then there is no reason to think that either of us would have identified the other at that point, so it would be coincidental. If we were together, it would have been a really shitty wagon-stop.

There were a few more scenarios, but I feel I am again rambling. I have been trying to explain how I play, though it seems to just be confusing you all, which is unfortunate.

[hayatoBL]

It requires not only you to die but also radja to die and flip scum. A second death. And to reach which conclusion? That his partner was on your wagon? And how reliable is this conclusion? Seems like a distant(as in requiring a second death) conclusion to make with little reliability for you to say "My death will make the post speak louder".

Those other scenarios you have could be helpful(at this point, I doubt it, but hey, let's leave no stone unturned). Because this one didn't.

[hayatoBL]

I am pretty confused on TheCow in general, admittedly, but I also think he believes what he's saying and isn't just spouting off random theory. I suspect Cow thought Mist was scum, and that combined with Radja being off the ConMan wagon would be what made the vote analysis interesting? That's just a guess. Regardless, Cow's thoughts seem genuine to me, whether they're from town or scum.

People have been claiming they are good at reading genuinity in other games and people have been wrong. Would like you to reconsider. At least you agree it was confusing. Though I'm a bit sceptic on your ability to read genuinity from a player like TheCow specifically, but I don't feel like raising this issue right now.

I'm probably going to vote for TheCow but want to see his and gameplay's response and read on Fire, Wanderer, pisskop and Klick first.

[hayatoBL]

@everyone not voting Prolapsed Brain: ISO him. Then vote him.

Even if Brain is scum, there are at least two(if we exclude ika) other scum playing actively. Why not pressure them and sort them out and if we can't agree to a lynch, we'll just lynch Brain.

[MarioManiac4]

I ISOd PB and will probably vote him unless I soon find ScummyMcScummy in the corner store

[Wanderer-nl]

There were a few more scenarios, but I feel I am again rambling. I have been trying to explain how I play, though it seems to just be confusing you all, which is unfortunate.

Maybe it would help if you used your techniques on actual events instead of speculating about what you would do if a certain thing happened. Are you actually scumreading Radja's slot? And how is that updated readslist coming?

[gameplay506]

prod dodge
sorry not doing anything at all
And cow is scum, hayato fukin stop questioning me
If you think im scum vote me

[vonflare]

bumping over the votecount