Open 608: Jungle Republic - A jungle is conquered(game over)


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Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:36 am

Post by DeasVail »

VOTE: Klick

I have to do it at some point right?
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Post Post #20 (isolation #1) » Fri Aug 14, 2015 8:56 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 18, Firebringer wrote:Random weird question, who you guys think would be most dangerous scum team here?

I don't know most of you very well, but Klick always has me completely fooled whenever he's scum.
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Post Post #34 (isolation #2) » Sat Aug 15, 2015 11:09 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 31, Klick wrote:DV's probably town

Please do explain this. Otherwise I'm going to think you're just trying to get me to feel good about you. ;)
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Post Post #53 (isolation #3) » Sat Aug 15, 2015 9:24 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 41, Klick wrote:DV gave an answer only specifying me as a dangerous member of any scum alignment, implying he wasn't thinking in a team mindset.

I'm still not sure about this. My post implied that my lack of saying any other names was due to my lack of experience with anyone else, and you're the only person who I have played a significant amount with (albeit a long time ago). My guess is that I probably would have said the same thing or something similar as scum, though this could be my own ignorance speaking I suppose. What do you think of my argument for it perhaps not being a towntell though? And was this something you considered?

In post 52, MarioManiac4 wrote:A scumteam of 3 Marios would be a LOT more dangerous than a scumteam of 2

What do you think of Klick's theory?

I'm not as sold on the tell of threes as Klick seems to be, but nonetheless

VOTE: Idiot Savant
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Post Post #70 (isolation #4) » Sun Aug 16, 2015 4:05 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 66, MarioManiac4 wrote:If he's not seer I will.
In this game there are 7 town and 5 scum.
I know I fill a Town slot and am not explicitly townreading Idiot Savant.
Therefore, if Idiot Savant is not the Seer I will hammer.

Why don't you want to develop a more informed read of Idiot Savant first?
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Post Post #77 (isolation #5) » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:17 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 71, shaddowez wrote:If you're not sold on this theory, why bother voting IS?

Oh I think it's an alright theory, and for that stage of the game it was better than anything else I had. I just didn't see it as giving a super strong indication of alignment.

In post 75, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 69, mykonian wrote:mario is scum btw.

also suspect wanderer.

GG catching me, but please actually consider who i am before trying to read me, or you will regret it.
And the ONLY reason I wanted to hammer with a 6/5 ratio was because it was ika!hydra, and that's literally it. It would have felt so fucking good to do that hammer vote if they weren't the seer.

This is different from the first reason you gave.
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Post Post #100 (isolation #6) » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:34 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 84, gameplay506 wrote:Fu
Also fire really is scum
VOTE: Fire

Why?

Also, I'm going to go with this!

Vote: Vedith


More on this later.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #7) » Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:05 am

Post by DeasVail »

I'm really wiped out now so post will be quick but basic thoughts are:

I townread Firebringer, still sort of kind of scumread Idiot Savant but don't feel too strongly about it. I was hoping that they'd react in some telling way to the pressure though nothing really stood out for me. Deciding whether myko/Mario are townreads or scumreads will take more brainpower than I'm currently willing to devote. And I have other reads but I don't think there's any need to say them.

Now Vedith, ooo. I have to say that Shadow's vote is a bit confusing to me because it seems like an activity vote from someone who's not too active themselves and it's just uh what, but the main reason why I'm voting for this dude is . He comments on the 'changed reason from Mario' and latches onto my point so quickly, but I was really just stretching and trying (probably not too successfully) to place Mario under some pressure. I didn't even believe in the whole changed reason thing! So it seems like he's going along with what I'm posting yet I don't really think that anyone would believe that? I also am similarly but not as bothered by . It's a very passive post very weakly questioning the fast wagon and supposed hammer intent, but not actually doing anything about it. Wanting to look good but still keep open the possibility of idiot savant lynch? Or not wanting to be seen as defending a buddy too hard? I think either is possible, but I'd expect a town player to actually show more OOMPH in making their opinion known than an idle question that's really not going to change anything or even be answered by anyone.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #8) » Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:46 am

Post by DeasVail »

I've got a headache and mafia is hard right now so I'll post properly tomorrow, but...

In post 131, Vedith wrote:
In post 128, DeasVail wrote:Now Vedith, ooo. I have to say that Shadow's vote is a bit confusing to me because it seems like an activity vote from someone who's not too active themselves and it's just uh what, but the main reason why I'm voting for this dude is 83. He comments on the 'changed reason from Mario' and latches onto my point so quickly, but I was really just stretching and trying (probably not too successfully) to place Mario under some pressure. I didn't even believe in the whole changed reason thing! So it seems like he's going along with what I'm posting yet I don't really think that anyone would believe that? I also am similarly but not as bothered by 65. It's a very passive post very weakly questioning the fast wagon and supposed hammer intent, but not actually doing anything about it. Wanting to look good but still keep open the possibility of idiot savant lynch? Or not wanting to be seen as defending a buddy too hard? I think either is possible, but I'd expect a town player to actually show more OOMPH in making their opinion known than an idle question that's really not going to change anything or even be answered by anyone.


What it have helped if I did it in caps? :giggle:

It actually might have shown that you cared about it a bit more yeah!

In post 149, hayatoBL wrote:And if you're Town, you *should* look more Town.

I had an issue with this. I get that someone should be posting enough to be read, but in idiot savant's case although one head has been more active than the other, they have made posts. Shouldn't it then be up to their fellow townies to read them correctly?

Again, more later!
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Post Post #167 (isolation #9) » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:43 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 144, Professor Bozo wrote:Bolding mine, but town aren't looking for an 'easy' lynch. He then jokes about tunneling later.

I think he's after easy lynches and he's not explaining the progression of his reads.

This is actually one of the things that I find town about him. Do you think that as scum he'd be more or less likely to go after an easy lynch while pretending otherwise?

In post 162, Firebringer wrote:Idiot Savant, how was your day?

Where do you see yourself in five years?

What do you consider your greatest strength and weakness?

If you had one sentence to describe yourself, what would you say?

Is this engaging good?

This is becoming GTKAS: The Game. <3

In post 163, mykonian wrote:but bella

you are scum.

would hardly be a fun conversation, it's like a rabbit talking about the weather with a fox :/

I am quite capable of talking about the weather, thanks. Isn't it nice today?

In post 165, hayatoBL wrote:I would like to drop this kind of discussion as it doesn 't really help in terms of scum-hunting. Unless it does help you read me? In which case, I would like you to explain how.

I was interested in it because I didn't see how ~you telling someone to up their game ----> them upping their game~ would help you with reading them.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #10) » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:44 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Also would prefer this game didn't become a:

"He posted less than me!!!!"
"No he did!!!"

argument.
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Post Post #190 (isolation #11) » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:51 am

Post by DeasVail »

V/LA due to health issues. Back soon
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Post Post #223 (isolation #12) » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:54 pm

Post by DeasVail »

um I have no idea when deadline is, but

I will have to note down the 28th August as the official end of my V/LA. If this is too long I am ok with being replaced, though I should be free to catch up completely on the 28th.
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Post Post #274 (isolation #13) » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:57 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 169, Vedith wrote:@DeasVail - How what that?

Yeah yep yes!

In post 196, mykonian wrote:She has to be lynched sooner than later anyway.

Why?

In post 239, Wanderer-nl wrote:this is not Bella's towngame.

How so? (Apologies if you've explained before and I missed it)

Ok, I've read up. Still experiencing health issues which I'd hoped to have cleared up by now. I can sort of follow along but it'll need to be low effort until further notice.

Klick-slot, Shaddow and Vedith all seem the most likely scum to me with Idiot Savant and NM bringing up the rear in a 'sort of makes sense as scum maybe' category. I was sort of meh on Klick's scumread of Savant and while I'm not particularly impressed by them, I would like a 'this is why Savant is scum' post. The more I think about it, the more I'm sketched out by Klick's townread on me, but I'd like to see his replacement. Still cool with my Vedith vote though I'm not as excited about it I was however long ago, so I may move it somewhere else. I hope to be able to post better soon, but this will be it for now.
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Post Post #317 (isolation #14) » Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:45 am

Post by DeasVail »

I'll catch up today.
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Post Post #328 (isolation #15) » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:19 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 284, mykonian wrote:The other way around is the kind of scum she is. It's confident (hard to lynch) talking (hard to lynch) and reasonable (also hard to lynch). Not that it has a lot to do with actual scumhunting, motivation, or attitude towards the game which certainly irk me (and apparently others too, yay). Again, I'm happy to take my opportunities there.

If she's scum here then I can't say I agree with her being that hard to lynch. Is your theory that she's having an off scumgame or what?

Vote: Idiot Savant
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Post Post #398 (isolation #16) » Sat Sep 05, 2015 12:09 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 390, Antihero wrote:deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

i see you in sitechat

let's boogie

It's been difficult to devote time to mafia lately, but I'll boogie with you if we're still around Day 3!
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Post Post #426 (isolation #17) » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:18 am

Post by DeasVail »

I thought Anti was town :oops:

Vote: Antihero
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Post Post #450 (isolation #18) » Fri Sep 11, 2015 12:05 am

Post by DeasVail »

I'll post more once Anti's dead. :]
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Post Post #463 (isolation #19) » Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:23 am

Post by DeasVail »

I should have time for this tonight.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #20) » Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:13 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 464, Vedith wrote:@DeasVail - You were called scum by AH. Care to explain?

Well

You see

AH called me scum.

(No more tonight I'm afraid. I don't know when I'll next have the time as tomorrow is busy but I'll post more when I can)
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Post Post #507 (isolation #21) » Sat Sep 19, 2015 11:12 pm

Post by DeasVail »

I forget a lot of my reads and I've been away for ages, so time for a COMPLETE READ REBOOT.

Klick/St. Constantine


Unless I'm really missing something, St. Constantine hasn't posted, in which case this read will be based entirely on Klick's posts/interactions etc. I do remember having a scumread on this slot and that may carry over slightly, though I'm going to try and give this a ~new look~ as much as I possibly can.

First impression is that the slot's less likely to be on the same team as Idiot Savant. Could be a bus I guess, but the suspicion occurs really early and is quite forceful. I would absolutely not be ruling this out in a single team set-up as that kind of thing happens all the time, but in multiball there is so much less incentive to bussing just because you aren't going to be cleared from it (doesn't matter if you're lynched because town thought you were the other team, you're still dead scum).

There's nothing significant between Klick and Jazz/Anti.

Now onto Klick.

He's the kind of player that I've seen look very town early on. And back in ~2012 when we played a few games together he was always that scum that I had the biggest most embarrassing townread on. I don't think his early game here is auto-scum, but nor does it make it less likely for me.

The thing that concerned me most before and concerns me looking over the posts again now, is his incredibly weak townread on me and no real satisfactory response to the criticisms. It deviates from what I would expect from Klick (a very cautious townread and not the inflated confidence seen here) as he has reason to be distrustful of me just as I do of him. As was explained a number of times, the townread on me did have flaws, and just as with my answer of who I find threatening as scum, he townreads me from my interaction around the IS wagon as well, which again feels weak and possibly looking for reasons to read me as town rather than the other way around. Since there's only one werewolf slot left I'm still hesitant with this scumread and I don't know where my other reads will end up at this stage.

Shaddowez


I don't like how he compares himself to vedith in and again in . It feels very self-conscious. is also very much focused on ~content~ and is almost nitpicky. It's the whole "My content is not quite as bad as yours!!!" argument that I'm not sure would seem worth making to town?

Note: He has Jazz as a second suspect but doesn't follow up on it so I'm seeing werewolf as less likely than mafia but still possible.

Where's the Jazz read in ?

The IS vote was fairly late (), so I'm not taking that really into account. What's interesting here though is that post mentions myk's post as an influence in his move onto the wagon despite scumreading myk before and no previous stated read on IS that I can see from my quick skim. (221 mentions little to no case). This makes me suspicious of shaddow making an artificial decision that he's going to bus IS as the progression and stated reason in 345 considering previous posts (e.g. 221) doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

I think shaddow is mafia. Werewolf not outside the realm of possibility though.

Hayato


I have a decent townread on him. Will explain if anyone's interested or people suspect him for some reason though running out of time and I want to get at least a couple more reads up so if I say anything it will be later.

Vedith


I actually find him super town reading through him again. Again one of those explain later if anyone cares reads. I'll feel awful if I was right before and wrong now, but I don't think so?

MarioManiac/Not_Mafia


Ok, I have no clue. Will probably end up being a PoE read.

Wanderer and Firebringer were vaguely townish reads for me before so I'm going to go with that until I have the time to go over them.

I feel good about this read though. I'm much more interested in lynching who I think is most likely scum than aiming for the werewolf (unless we have good reason such as seer result to believe that someone is).

VOTE: shaddowez

I don't know when I'll next have the chance to work on reads but hopefully around this time tomorrow. Sorry everyone for being so checked out. This will hopefully be my epic comeback.
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Post Post #525 (isolation #22) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:14 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 522, shaddowez wrote:I'm not liking the fact that there's absolutely no counter wagon to Wanderer. If nothing else that gives me a slight town read, as scum and WW are both willing to get on any wagon that's not their own faction. I still don't believe anybody gave me a case on her either from my question in 481, only FB responding and telling me to vote Wanderer.

Isn't there only one werewolf left? Or am I missing something?
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Post Post #527 (isolation #23) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:27 am

Post by DeasVail »

Wanderer-nl


I'm pretty confident in wanderer not being mafia. There's a reasonably early vote on Savant in , an unvote in , a change to the myko wagon in and then he returns to the Savant wagon in , even though it hasn't progressed at all. I'm pretty sure this is not how wanderer-mafia would operate. He strikes me here as a thoughtful player and the above is way too messy if he's scum with Savant. I think scum tend to make a decision to bus someone and stick with it, and would be a lot more worried about the conspicuous nature of their flip-flopping once Savant would flip scum. Plus he was a pretty strong force in getting her lynched. So I'm happy to rule that out unless further evidence tells me otherwise.

What concerns me most though is and . These posts sound to me like scum wanting to post about dying when actually they know they're not going to die because they control the shot. I think you're pretty town otherwise, but give me a reason for you making those posts that's better than mine.

Hmm, actually I'm pretty sure wanderer can't be werewolf either because is just so awkward if so that I can't imagine scum comfortably posting that unless they saw in the future and knew I'd townread them for it, but I'd still like my questions to be answered.

Will post more tomorrow. Probably will explain vedith too.

Still as good as ever with a shaddowez lynch.
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Post Post #528 (isolation #24) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:27 am

Post by DeasVail »

ok, so shaddowez's reasoning doesn't make sense. Cool!
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Post Post #543 (isolation #25) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:34 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 540, Wanderer-nl wrote:Deasvail
Why ask Mario in why he won't make a more informed read on Savant while you voted them in when only half-assedly agreeing to the theory?
votes Vedith and actually comes back with his 'more' in . 128 made Deasvail's push on Mario look a lot bigger than it actually was. And why would anyone just go along with anyone else? This is multiball and in general town is more aware of that than scum.
At first I really liked this. A (seemingly) thorough catch-up that I wouldn't see coming from scum. I also needed to restart, and I actually think I'd expect scum to go with what they planned and only need their last post(s) in the scum PT to catch up on their thoughts if they're using it right. But that doesn't mean scum wouldn't make a catch-up post.

Deasvail: I was townreading you as well but you don't seem to have issues with that like you do with Klick. How come?

The question to Mario was because he wanted to hammer Savant, or so he claimed. Savant was the best vote option to me at the time, but I would not have wanted them lynched and didn't have a confident read there at all.
Regarding Vedith, I thought that my push on Mario was pretty weak and so I thought that town would recognise this while scum may want to encourage my suspicion of Mario and direct it away from a team-mate. I think Vedith is town now though and will explain that this morning.

--

Shaddowez, I'm referring to my . You're using the fact that there's no counterwagon to Wanderer as a reason to townread him, but if he's a werewolf then where is the counterwagon going to come from? I don't need to ask you because the answer is nowhere. So I can quite confidently say that the reasoning doesn't make sense, right?
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Post Post #544 (isolation #26) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:38 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Oh wait, I forgot to answer the townread question.

There were 2 reasons for it not being as concerning from you. One is because of my history with Klick. He's wrongly trusted me before so I'd expect him to be more cautious here. And second is because your townread was just a mention (iirc) of 20 feeling town to you. I feel this kind of reasoning is the sort that scum would consider weak and that they'd opt for more ~logical~ reasoning (i.e. Klick), whereas a post "feeling town" is often the way town will get reads (especially game) if they're being honest.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #27) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:39 pm

Post by DeasVail »

*especially early-game
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Post Post #547 (isolation #28) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:11 pm

Post by DeasVail »

I was under the impression that you thought Vedith was scum. Is that still the case?
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Post Post #556 (isolation #29) » Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:27 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Why I think Vedith is town:


I like the thoughts on Klick in , and .
I also like .

But what I find most town about him is his attitude to the suspicion of him. I do need to consider the possibility that it is fabricated, but he gives this genuine air of not really caring if he is lynched or suspected, but at the same time you can tell he does care about working the game out. And this doesn't look like "scum" scumhunting, who's main concern is to look really active and ~town~.

I believe is the best example of what I'm trying to say.

I don't know if this really explains it well at all (I thought I would be able to do it better than this), but at the moment Vedith is one of my strongest townreads.
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Post Post #557 (isolation #30) » Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:28 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Also I'd like to lynch Shaddowez. I wasn't a fan of his response to me.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #31) » Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:42 am

Post by DeasVail »

@Shaddowez: Your original post included WW in your reasoning, and considering that there's only 2 mafia, it's still kind of flawed considering there is a fair number of people that haven't voted for wanderer. I'm not sure what you're expecting counter-wagon-wise, but 2 mafia are not going to be incredibly obvious and wagon together right away if they can help it anyway (in most circumstances).

@Vedith: My elaboration on the read of you was because I want to try and have it so that people aren't distracted by suspicion of you (particularly wanderer) and instead lynch shaddowez. Ambitious I know, but I may as well try.
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Post Post #564 (isolation #32) » Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:45 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 560, shaddowez wrote:You mean the one where I call out your reading comprehension and ask you to actually interact?

Please tell me where there was a problem with my reading comprehension. Why are you being all high and mighty about getting me to interact when there was nothing for me to gain from it?
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Post Post #566 (isolation #33) » Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:17 am

Post by DeasVail »

When I made my first post, I didn't realise that titus was the klick slot. Can't say I have much of an opinion on her alone either way, but if I had to guess on a werewolf, it would be her based on klick and poe etc.
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Post Post #569 (isolation #34) » Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:05 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 567, Titus wrote:
In post 557, DeasVail wrote:Also I'd like to lynch Shaddowez. I wasn't a fan of his response to me.


Why were you not a fan? :igmeou:

I just didn't like it. I don't really know why. And I feel good enough about my other reasons that I'm not going to try explaining it.
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Post Post #575 (isolation #35) » Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:35 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Shaddow, my was incomplete due to lack of time and I said as much in my post. Not sure why you're using that against me?

And I never said that you said there was more than one WW. My point was that if there's only one WW then townreading someone because there's no counterwagon makes absolutely no sense and that's always what I said. I have no problem with you townreading Wanderer, but your stated reason for it was only because of the lack of the counterwagon. You've added to it now and that's cool I guess, but I'm pretty sure you're scum.
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Post Post #576 (isolation #36) » Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:39 pm

Post by DeasVail »

When the replacement comes through I'll type up a succinct "Why I think Shaddow is scum" post for easy reading, though you're free to vote for him before that.
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Post Post #588 (isolation #37) » Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:17 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Not anything more to say as things stand.
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Post Post #622 (isolation #38) » Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:30 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 607, Shiro wrote:the fact he lurked after early early game doesn't help.

I did mention that it was life stuff contributing to my lack of activity, so why use it against me?

Also, I'm not keen for a Not_Mafia lynch over a shaddowez one. I'm pretty aware right now that I may not be trusted enough to be able to change things, but I'll give it a go in my next post!
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Post Post #623 (isolation #39) » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:02 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Why I Think Shaddowez Is Scum


-First, look at . Here he votes for Vedith for what can really be summed up as a lack of activity. There is criticism of baseless questions and lack of follow-up, though the same could really be said of shaddowez's activity. Shaddowez acknowledges that his own activity has been lacking and I would think that as town for that reason he'd not think that someone with low activity at such an early stage is necessarily suspicious. Shaddowez does say that his content is better than vedith's but if you look at their ISOs up to that stage there's not too much difference and I feel that it's a bit sus to think that someone slightly less active than you is scum for the reason that their slightly less active than you.

This is only slightly suspicious to me though. It's an early vote, they don't have to mean much...

Or do they???

Part of Shaddowez's argument against me is voting for IS despite not being sold on Klick's theory (beginning of ), as a 'best there is' vote.

Now, there are two options with the Vedith vote. Either shaddowez's vote is because Vedith is a 'serious scumread' and if that's the case then my big problem with that is covered in the first paragraph, or it's just a vote for the best person he can think of without a strong reason. And I would not have much of a problem with this last portion... if he didn't have a problem with me doing a similar thing. Sorry for the long-winded explanation of that point, but I think that as town he would realise that hey, a problem he has with me was something that he's done himself, so I don't believe he would start suspecting me for that.

--

The main thing I've found suspicious since my expressed scumread in is what stems from .

This post is flawed because a lack of counterwagon to wanderer shouldn't indicate much as to her alignment. If she's werewolf then she has no buddies to counterwagon for her, and even if she's mafia then the one buddy she does have would have to be careful about how they respond to the situation so as not to give themselves away (I didn't mention the mafia part until later though). So the slight town read there didn't make a whole lot of sense to me and I point it out. No big deal really.

misunderstands what I was trying to say, but I don't like the way he sets himself up to scumread me despite not even understanding what I mean.

And then in he's trying to imply that because I'm saying that WW aren't going to counterwagon since there's only one of them, that I know wanderer's not scum. This is all stemming from me just saying that shaddow's reasoning is inherently flawed (and especially the WW part), and jumping on my attempts to explain that, so I believe that it's an opportunistic attack on me.

--

And lastly, he mentions my vote for Vedith as suspicious despite agreeing with me at the time? Hmmmm.

Sorry for this being longer than I promised, but can we vote Shaddow now and not not_mafia?
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Post Post #625 (isolation #40) » Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:45 am

Post by DeasVail »

I don't have a read on NM and would rather lynch someone I think is very likely scum.
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Post Post #636 (isolation #41) » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:27 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 630, Wanderer-nl wrote:Also, Deas, when I look at your reads you posted in (and from) you already say Mario/NM will be a PoE-read. You have Klick and shaddowez as scum, there is one more scum (scum = ww+mafia to me) so there you have your PoE-read. What's holding you back? Is NM your buddy? Because based on shaddowez iso I think he's more likely a ww. I also don't see how
Note: [shaddowez] has Jazz as a second suspect but doesn't follow up on it so I'm seeing werewolf as less likely than mafia but still possible.
(from that 507) which would actually make me think he's more likely a ww instead of mafia. Wouldn't it make more sense to not push on a scumspect if they're your buddy? And Jazz was really active-lurkish so in that way it makes sense for their buddy to have them as a suspect.

I don't remember why I said that about shaddow being more likely mafia but it might have been because I thought there would be no suspicion of the buddy. And I thought the way that he moved onto the IS wagon for liking myko's reasoning who he suspected shortly before made mafia more likely. WW's still definitely possible though, but the main reason I want to lynch him is because I just think he's scum. Don't care what he is really. The other thing is that if Titus is scum I don't think she can be mafia. And while NM could be a PoE read I'm not going to want him lynched over an actual scumread while Shaddow's still in the game (he's not my buddy).
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Post Post #653 (isolation #42) » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:32 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 637, Shiro wrote:DV here is the deal

If shadow flips town we are taking NM at a possible

3 scum 3 town

^ This is bad for town and having NM there is making it even worse.

If he flips scum and is WW

Then we will be at 2 scum 4 town MYLO with NM no lycnhing him there means LYLO with NM

If he flips scum and is mafia

2 scum 3 town LYLO for town with NM unless WW hits the other mafia.

Not getting NM today is really risky and the chances he is scum are already high. You seriosuyl want ot take a PoE read at Lylo or Mylo ? Why ?

That's great and all, but if you consider that I think shaddow is scum and have no idea at this stage what NM is, then I'm obviously going to think it much better to vote for Shaddow. Lynching scumread > maybescum read. If everyone disagrees then that's fine, but I'm going to make my preferences clear.

In post 640, Titus wrote:Hey DV, did you roll scum again? Is NM your buddy? Why haven't you interacted with my Vedith + Wanderer suggestion but not having enough of a read on who the WW was?

I didn't. I didn't interact with your suggestion because I think vedith is town and wanderer is more likely town and this would be evident from my posts so to quote you and say I disagree wouldn't add anything.

In post 646, Titus wrote:
In post 625, DeasVail wrote:I don't have a read on NM and would rather lynch someone I think is very likely scum.


What have you been doing to fix this?

Telling everyone to lynch Shaddow and explaining why I want this. :]

In post 647, Shiro wrote:
In post 645, Titus wrote:Do you think DV is mafia assuming you're right on NM?


Possible I do not like how he tries to protect him that much today.

I'm not protecting him as much as trying to get shaddow lynched.

In post 651, Titus wrote:it makes me wonder...why not day 1?

I forget honestly. I think I might have been thinking of changing my vote there Day 1 but I expected deadline to be paused due to replacements and so the end took me by surprise. Can't say whether or not I would have still wanted Vedith lynched though.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #43) » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:44 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Why do you need to state intent to vote him? Why not just vote?
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Post Post #677 (isolation #44) » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:18 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 664, Titus wrote:@Deas Vail, why did you deflect instead of answering what you're doing to fix your lack of read on not mafia?

That was my serious answer. He's refusing to engage properly so as town or scum he doesn't care. I don't see anything worth doing to fix my read on him right now. I can't make his posts suddenly alignment-relevant to me, and I don't have any questions for him that I consider worth asking. I still think shaddow is scum but that's obviously not happening today. Not_mafia very well could be mafia though and in that case I'd quite earnestly ask you to think twice before turbo-lynching me. I very much doubt that I would behave this way as scum.
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Post Post #681 (isolation #45) » Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:34 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Hey! :)

Sorry for being so late.
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Post Post #702 (isolation #46) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:29 am

Post by DeasVail »

Between Titus and Shaddow, Titus' crumb is lots more legit and overall I'm just pretty sure it's Shaddow. Shaddow if you have anything you want to say that you think could convince me otherwise, go for it.

As for what should be done today.

Lynching WW today, would result in a 5p LYLO. Not completely terrible. I have a feeling I'd be lynched but maybe that's too pessimistic.

Lynching Seer today (I'm pretty sure that's Titus and I'm not going to support a lynch on her, but I'll cover it anyway), results in 2 Town, 2 Mafia 1 WW. Not great for town, but possible maybe? My guess would be that WW tries to shoot mafia and then mafia + WW stalemate with town to get a no lynch and then WW shoots town to get a 1 town, 1 mafia, 1 WW situation. I don't know if that's how it would work, but that's my best guess.

Lynching mafia today ----> 3 Town (incl. seer), 1 Mafia, 1 WW. Assuming Shaddow is the WW here, then he'd be pretty much forced to try shooting town in order to prevent insta-loss, and then we could lynch the WW (prob Shaddow), for a 3P LYLO. This assumes we get the mafia today though.

Lynching non-Seer town today would be much the same as lynching seer probably, which is a situation I'd like to avoid.

To me whether we try to lynch mafia or WW seems to be pretty equivalent. We have to not lynch town anymore in either case. If I had to say a preference I'd go with lynching shaddow since I'm pretty sure that's a known safe lynch and I like to procrastinate making difficult decisions, but I'm pretty open.
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Post Post #716 (isolation #47) » Sun Oct 04, 2015 6:42 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Hmmm,

Mod
: What happens if we no lynch and no kill still occurs?
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Post Post #752 (isolation #48) » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:57 am

Post by DeasVail »

I am interested in the answer to my question, but yes, no lynch is best.
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Post Post #842 (isolation #49) » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:36 am

Post by DeasVail »

I'll post tonight.
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Post Post #844 (isolation #50) » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:02 pm

Post by DeasVail »

Don't listen to Titus. She only wants a draw because she's realised she can't win.

This is the best chance town has at winning. Lynch mafia today, then it's 2 town, 1 mafia, Titus. Titus doesn't want to shoot mafia because then she'll be lynched. She doesn't want to shoot town because that = mafia win. And she doesn't want to not shoot because that means Titus can be lynched and then it's 3P LYLO without Titus. So it all comes down to what Titus does, but it's the only way to win.

I think I was wrong about no lynch being best, because I've realised that Titus has no chance of winning here (realistically) so is just going to draw it. I still don't know what a stalemate situation would be. Town win because no one could kill them? Mafia win because they weren't lynched? WW win for same reason? Or just a boring draw.

I would like to ask each of Shiro, Vedith and FB what you think of going for the lynch and seeing what happens vs. settling for the draw Titus proposes.

I don't want to draw, I want to win, but I'm really lost as to who is the mafia here (I'm leaning Shiro/FB but not at all confident) so each of you tell me what you want to do. I'll be analysing your answer. :]
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Post Post #953 (isolation #51) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:37 pm

Post by DeasVail »

I played really badly (as is evident from the scum PT and Antihero's posts :P ), but I must thank Shiro. You played excellently.

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