Mini 1699 - #swag wars: THE empire strikes back (swaggedout)

[fferyllt]

I might have been more inclined to take pieguy's side of the arguments if I hadn't been empathizing with the way you looked lost and apathetic here. Every time I started to think she was making sense about you, you'd say something that strongly echoed my thoughts about/during particular moments of the game.

[notscience]

Like I don't know what to tell you about earlier interactions but purely based on knowledge of our dynamic our blowup today really stuck out to me. And I know that pie's arguments always make a ton more sense than mine and she's way stronger at people getting lynched than I am (to the point where in WTP I was begging her to come back in thread and help me get people lynched because I was really confident I just couldn't make things happen).

She's good at making sense

[fferyllt]

My thought process is a little more in depth and requires knowing how familiar pie and I are with each other but I can see that point as well.

Would you expect implosion to know enough of this to accurately describe the dynamic?

[notscience]

No, in all honesty noone in this playerlist likely would.

It's basically me saying I'm extremely biasd and that's why I want your opinion of it.

[fferyllt]

I thought his characterizing your play as unmistakably towny was a bit of a stretch. That's the part that feels most disingenuous. From there, it's a narrative - that as players were losing their scumread of you, Pieguy had to eventually give up on you as a viable lynch target, as opposed to finally shaking herself out of the tunneling.

[notscience]

I remember why my play was unmistakably towny.

[fferyllt]

I remember very town moments in your play. It was late day 2 before I stopped worrying about your alignment.

[fferyllt]

Who are you scumreading?

[notscience]

I don't know.

Like, I wish I had an answer but that's kinda the reason I'm latching on so hard to my townreads, it's like when you go in a horror movie the one who goes alone always gets picked off first.

I don't like nacho but I understand I'm always paranoid of him and it's why I'm trying to take the back seat on reading him and I don't know why he's prompting me to get my hands dirty when reading him given that knowledge.

i don't like wicked but I can't really put to words why.

I don't like implosion's readflip on me. It feels really off.

RC has a point about oversoul's active lurking but I'm just not sure what to do regarding that.

overall, this entire post is a copout.

[notscience]

And that's also something now that I think about it more in depth- it could be nacho trying to succumb me to the mist but at the same time Im just like all sorts of backwards about the read because the most likely outcome of me independently reading him is a scumread on him so why would he want me to do that as either alignment

[pieguyn]

i first thought implo being scum required Nacho to be town (which is why i had a problem with it) but now that i looked at it again, if i squint, i could see just JK+rolecop+miller making sense setup-wise (or god forbid 10-2-1 with just JK+rolecop and potentially miller - which if Empire actually did i'm legitimately flying to Miami and punching him in the face).

i think if implo can't see why i backed off at the point i did or why i wanted to reach out to notsci afterward, he didn't read notsci's posts leading up to it at all at best

[implosion]

I can explain the process behind my notscience read flipping in more depth if desired. I was actually a little bit surprised when ffery said it was what she found sketchy in my analysis, because to me it feels like the least likely thing in there that I would do as scum. Or I guess that I felt like the way I was flipping on notscience felt town. Idk. I feel like scum-me would just have carried the same nacho/notscience reads from d2 into d3 and just be mindlessly pushing nacho here.

Maybe I was just more focused today. But I kept reading and re-reading notscience's posting through d2 and just did not see what other people townreading him were seeing at all. And the way he flipped on pie did not feel like scum. From my impression of nostcience scum-notscience would have just kept chugging along against pie. From my impression of their dynamic scum-notscience would know that trying to elicit a townread from pie would be futile and so would just try to appeal to those already townreading him and go after pie that way. That combined with notscience's very genuine-seeming development of paranoia just does not strike me as scum. I might be completely misjudging notscience but I think I made a fairly strong character judgment that scum-notscience had absolutely no reason to waffle on pie in the first place.

I'm not saying that pie tunneling and then flipping on notscience is what's scummy, I'm saying that the way she did it and the timing were scummy. notscience made a series of posts including 2437/2439. pie continues to attack notscience vehemently, categorizing 2355 as something that she doesn't understand how anyone could possibly read as not scummy. She then sleeps on it and immediately does a 180 degree turn citing 2437/2439.

That just doesn't feel genuine. Does pie consistently flip so quickly on such deeply entrenched reads? What am I missing here?

[implosion]

(also ftr, i've never played with pie or ns at least in memory)

[implosion]

i think if implo can't see why i backed off at the point i did or why i wanted to reach out to notsci afterward, he didn't read notsci's posts leading up to it at all at best

I guess to some degree it makes sense for you to have flipped. What bugs me is 2445/2446. When you made those posts were the cogs already turning in your head as to notscience being possibly town, and you were just suppressing those thoughts and not posting them? Or did you literally flip entirely in one night?

Another thing that bugs me at a really basic level is just how you both were convinced to an absolute degree that each other were scum and then it disappeared. Reads change and shit. But the fact that you were completely convinced on each other to the point where you were willing to throw the game if you were wrong at some point in time bugs me. For some reason the you -> notscience direction of that bugs me more. It might be because of ns saying that you tend to be more logical than he does.

There was a part of me 2 hours ago that was convinced that if we lynched os and he flipped scum that I was going to shoot you and you'd flip scum. Convinced is probably the wrong word actually, more anticipatory. I feel like if you're town then my next best bet right now is oversoul/wicked/ffery. Which I guess there's nothing theoretically wrong with.

[pieguyn]

He wanted to gain some town credit, but didn't actually have the power role to back it up.

if he was playing for towncred, there are a fuckton of more reliable ways he could have went about it. it isn't difficult at all to adequately fake a catchup - as in, a standard "read the thread and give reads on everyone" catchup - and even if he did decide to step in here and fakeclaim a PR, it would have been a lot more beneficial to scum-him here if he had just stuck with the PR claim instead of retracting it for as far as I can tell no reason (and, no, trying to convince people he's "too scummy to be scum" is not a compelling reason, in no small part explicitly to how unreliable of a strategy it would be). I still don't think, outside of that reason, anyone else has given any reason he would have bothered retracting the PR claim as scum or acknowledged the point that it would have been fairly obvious retracting it in the way he did would have done nothing to actually save him here.

the only reason I can see for him-scum playing the way he did is that he was resigned to being lynched from the get go and so he decided to just start making up a bunch of shit. but that feels unlikely enough to me that I'm not really considering it.

If he was town, why would he gambit to attract the night kill when
-he was already under so much suspicion
-there were already other claimed power roles
-he even said that his power role wasn't strong
?

I am not going to pretend like I have a clue why, specifically, Oversoul thought he'd be capable of drawing the NK. it's an incredibly dumb strategy that hardly ever actually works. however, that does not change the fact that some people think it's a good strategy or that they're capable of doing so for *insert shit reason here*.

in Oversoul's case, he thought he could walk in here, do something ridiculous, and act like Tammy would be able to walk in and confirm him as town come tomorrow. although I strongly disagree with it on principle, I can see why he would believe it.

and my gut is telling me that nacho's posturing right now is town

no, it really isn't. Nacho is continuing to be disingenuous about several things here - the least of which is that, duh, I haven't explained why I have a problem with his push on ffery because

ffery specifically asked me not to explain it until she had a chance to interact with him.

he is also conveniently ignoring me pointing out why his push on Oversoul is incorrect rather than addressing it. and I could maybe see this, if he just didn't get around to addressing it or at least took some sort of stance on it even if he didn't respond to it in depth - but then he specifically tries to claim that I haven't actually read anything he wrote and acts like my counter-case doesn't even exist. what the fuck do you think reads town about this? he is actually just making shit up here: he is fitting the evidence towards the read he wants to push (Oversoul-scum) and he's not acknowledging the reasoning for his push being wrong because he knows it'll make him look like obvious fucking scum if it becomes obvious his arguments don't hold water and he continues to push it anyway. so, instead he just tries to claim that I haven't read what he actually wrote and hopes that people accept it as truth without reading critically. this is a fairly textbook scum manoeuvre when attempting to fake a read, and it should honestly be really obvious to read from his play if you read how it played out in order.

plus him acknowledging when RC initially hinted at having a PR that not wanting to risk drawing a CC is a fairly compelling motivation for claiming non-standard PR, and then turning around and flat-out ignoring this when Oversoul claimed he had a PR

among other things

so no, there is nothing town about the way Nacho has been playing this, and I have no idea what you're seeing about it that reads town.

I'm not saying that pie tunneling and then flipping on notscience is what's scummy, I'm saying that the way she did it and the timing were scummy. notscience made a series of posts including 2437/2439. pie continues to attack notscience vehemently, categorizing 2355 as something that she doesn't understand how anyone could possibly read as not scummy. She then sleeps on it and immediately does a 180 degree turn citing 2437/2439.

my notsci read fell into a similar vein as my Nacho read in that he was pushing a bunch of stuff that I thought it made absolutely no sense for town-him to push, and as a result, the only reasonable explanation was that he was just scum. so yes, I was practically 100% sure that he was scum here.

you are correct to say that I didn't see 2437/2439 as town when I first saw it. I was tired and still emotional over what had happened immediately before. after I was able to back away from the game for a while and read the exchange again, though, it became incredibly obvious that his reaction was indicative of town-him. he is, conclusively, not an emotionally manipulative player as scum, whereas in hindsight it made perfect sense based on what I know about him that he would have reacted in that way as town.

I still don't have any idea where he would have got the majority of his push on me from, but regardless, the way he reacted was far stronger evidence towards him being town, so I don't particularly care about it anymore.

[pieguyn]

I feel like if you're town then my next best bet right now is oversoul/wicked/ffery.

can you walk me through your ffery read in more detail (or link if I missed it)?

[implosion]

I pretty much haven't elaborated on ffery or wicked at all today. Or wicked really ever iirc. I will in the morning. Atm my feelings towards ffery are that she was ignorable d1, she got enough towncred for me to continue ignoring her d2, and now I need to stop ignoring her because I'm trying to put together a complete puzzle. I don't remember any of her posts today making me feel anything at all. But I'll look at her more when I wake up.

[Wickedestjr]

I don't understand why I have to follow my set reads in order, though.

That's what I do when I'm confused (like I have been for most of this game).

Maybe that's why I don't fully understand your approach. Can you honestly tell me that, as confused town, you refer to what your other townreads think?

[Wickedestjr]

implosion, why does the "why would they do this as scum" card come into play for Nacho's backup role cop claim, but not for pieguyn's change in read on notscience?

I think they're both savvy enough to realize the strangeness/surprising nature of their actions.

[Oversoul]

Sorry guys! Been really busy last week. Moving + some friends came into town.

[Oversoul]

Friends are still in town, but leaving tonight. Hopefully something tonight

[Oversoul]

Nacho really claim backup Rolecop? Da fuq

[Wickedestjr]

He wanted to gain some town credit, but didn't actually have the power role to back it up.

[1.

if he was playing for towncred, there are a fuckton of more reliable ways he could have went about it.

]

[2.

it isn't difficult at all to adequately fake a catchup - as in, a standard "read the thread and give reads on everyone" catchup

]

-

[3.

and even if he did decide to step in here and fakeclaim a PR, it would have been a lot more beneficial to scum-him here if he had just stuck with the PR claim instead of retracting it for as far as I can tell no reason

]

(

[4.

and, no, trying to convince people he's "too scummy to be scum" is not a compelling reason, in no small part explicitly to how unreliable of a strategy it would be

]

). I still don't think, outside of that reason, anyone else has given any reason he would have bothered retracting the PR claim as scum or acknowledged the point that it would have been fairly obvious retracting it in the way he did would have done nothing to actually save him here.

1. Like what?
2. If it's not difficult to fake a catchup, then how would a regular catchup post be the optimal strategy for removing a bandwagon or getting town credit? (especially in a player list like this)
3. I don't think so. The presence of another power role is hard to believe (it's one of the reasons why I'm voting Nacho) and I'm pretty sure Oversoul realizes that. If he claimed power role, it would very much look like he was just trying to save himself from the bandwagon he's got. But the VT, not VT, VT charade is confusing/different, and it has earned him town credit because it's a strange thing for him to do as scum! e.g. He is being townread by you right now and doesn't seem to have suffered in any way from it (anyone scum reading him right now already did iirc).
4. But that seems to be basically what you're doing for him...

[implosion]

implosion, why does the "why would they do this as scum" card come into play for Nacho's backup role cop claim, but not for pieguyn's change in read on notscience?

I don't see the comparison here. pie's change in read on notscience has a very clear motivation if she's scum beyond just "doing it to get wifom towncred."

After skimming through her iso of today I don't really have a much more interesting opinion on ffery. Her play doesn't feel very alignment-indicative. She's being generically helpful and commenting on a wide variety of things but isn't really giving enough original analysis for me to think much.

[Tammy]

School starts tomorrow so I might not be able to post until I get home tomorrow. I'm somewhat caught up except for last couple pages; if I get situated tonight I'll try to get here.