Mini 1699 - #swag wars: THE empire strikes back (swaggedout)

[Wickedestjr]

implosion, why does the "why would they do this as scum" card come into play for Nacho's backup role cop claim, but not for pieguyn's change in read on notscience?

I don't see the comparison here. pie's change in read on notscience has a very clear motivation if she's scum beyond just "doing it to get wifom towncred."

I feel the exact opposite. Nacho's claim has very clear motivation imo. Not seeing what pie's motivation for changing her mind is -

iirc

, she started the argument with notscience.

[implosion]

Scum-pie's motivation for flipping on notscience would be that scum-pie realized that a push on notscience wasn't going to be fruitful.

[fferyllt]

You're ignoring what happens to the gamestate as town players townreading notsci get nk'd. pieguy could have maintained the read, and perpetuated the noise while compromise voting other players. At some point, if nacho is town, it would become a reason for nacho to worry about pieguy. At some later point (probably later, I think) I would have become concerned. It probably wouldn't have been today.

[implosion]

That does make sense. And it definitely makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow. But what I'm saying also makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow because it allows her to focus more on whatever mislynch she thinks will happen today, or possibly just a series of two other mislynches that she thinks she'll be able to pull off today and tomorrow.

I'm not saying that it's the only thing that scum-pie possibly could have done, I'm saying it makes sense for scum-pie to have done and that it didn't feel like it was done genuinely.

[Empire]

DAY 3, VOTECOUNT 12

Nachomamma8 (3)

-

notscience, pieguyn, Wickedestjr

Oversoul (3)

-

RedCoyote, Nachomamma8, implosion

notscience (1)

-

Oversoul

Not Voting (2)

-

Tammy, fferyllt

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch! Deadline is on August 29th at 9:40 AM EST or in (expired on 2015-08-29 09:39:56).

Mod Notes - N/A

[fferyllt]

That does make sense. And it definitely makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow. But what I'm saying also makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow because it allows her to focus more on whatever mislynch she thinks will happen today, or possibly just a series of two other mislynches that she thinks she'll be able to pull off today and tomorrow.

I'm not saying that it's the only thing that scum-pie possibly could have done, I'm saying it makes sense for scum-pie to have done and that it didn't feel like it was done genuinely.

I feel like you're talking about some hypothetical generic scum player who could have done x or done y from both a scum or town motivation.

This isn't a hypothetical player. It's pieguyn, who has ingrained town and scum behaviors.

[implosion]

That does make sense. And it definitely makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow. But what I'm saying also makes sense as an option for scum-pie to follow because it allows her to focus more on whatever mislynch she thinks will happen today, or possibly just a series of two other mislynches that she thinks she'll be able to pull off today and tomorrow.

I'm not saying that it's the only thing that scum-pie possibly could have done, I'm saying it makes sense for scum-pie to have done and that it didn't feel like it was done genuinely.

I feel like you're talking about some hypothetical generic scum player who could have done x or done y from both a scum or town motivation.

This isn't a hypothetical player. It's pieguyn, who has ingrained town and scum behaviors.

Well 1, with me having no good sense of pieguyn's meta, her incarnation as scum isn't particularly differentiable from generic scum player in my head, so I'm not sure what you're getting at there. 2, I'm giving that kind of argument because that's essentially the level of abstraction that I need for that cog in the logic of my argument. I'm not trying to say that the behavior of flipping on ns was indicative of scum. I'm trying to say it

can

have a simple, direct motivation as scum (which I have more trouble seeing for Nacho's claim, which is what started this discussion). This possibility of being scum-motivated is irrespective of pie being the player in the slot. I'm further saying that the way in which it was done is what looks scummy, not just it having been done.

[fferyllt]

Then talk me through what it is about the way in which it was done makes it look scummy. It's not clear to me from reading the last two pages or so what you are referring to.

[implosion]

It basically comes down to this:

That level of dedication to the scumread doesn't feel like something that pie could just sleep on and suddenly be over.

Pie was all-in on the notscience read all the way up until she slept on it for one night and said she didn't think ns was scum, citing posts that had already been made when pie continued tunneling ns. Pie's posting gave me a feeling that she was absolutely, nothing will ever change her mind convinced that ns was scum, and her posting gave me that feeling right up until the point where she flipped. It just seems way too sudden for such an entrenched read to spontaneously evaporate, especially from a player who is being described as very logical. Someone who has been reading pages upon pages upon pages of content from ns and has seen essentially the entire corpus of his posting as super scummy suddenly flipping over having thought about it for one night makes no sense whatsoever to me unless, as I mentioned/asked, pie had doubt for a long time and just was ignoring it in her in-thread posting, in which case I wonder why she hadn't expressed that doubt.

[pieguyn]

did you see the last half of 2664?

[implosion]

I think I half-read half-skimmed it last night. I actually have no memory of why I was calling Nacho's posturing town.

To further elaborate on why I'm inclined to say that Nacho's claim is town after further thought: what scum thought-process would have led to scum-nacho claiming backup rolecop? I definitely don't think it would be him actually being a mafia backup rolecop, I think he'd realize that we'd say it could be a scum role and be disincentivized from it because of that. So he's doing it for towncred, right? He's switching from a vt claim to a backup rolecop claim for towncred. In what world is that actually going to work? I know that me typing this IS that world in one sense, because the claim has made me think that he's town. But more generally backup rolecop is not an extremely believable claim. I guess thinking about it on another level the only way it reasonably makes sense is if he wanted to claim backup rolecop as a springboard to getting me mislynched, since he figured that we'd just auto-lynch from VT claims+RC with the three claimed power roles seeming like a very reasonable setup. I guess I could actually see that making sense.

Nacho

: since you didn't claim your role during the massclaim, did it ever cross your mind that you'd be scrutinized for that? Did you think to drop some kind of crumb so that we would know that you aren't just making up the claim post-massclaim because it's scumvenient? Did you think that we would just believe you when you claimed, and so didn't feel the need? Or did you just not even consider it?

WRT the stuff you said about you pie, yeah, I guess it makes sense but I still have some waffles. Idk. Gun to my head I guess I'd say os/wicked/ffery at this particular juncture in time. This game still sucks in terms of getting any theories to stick. Granted I wrote this paragraph before the above. I might be more willing to see scum nacho now.

I still think nacho/os probably aren't scum together.

[implosion]

Actually the problem is that I can't think of any way Nacho can answer that question that doesn't sound scummy. Like he's good enough to know that he can't just get away with something like that as someone already under significant suspicion. Unless he did drop some kind of crumb he hasn't mentioned.

And yet I really, really, really don't want to unvote oversoul right now if for no other reason than out of principle that he's started lurking hard at a crucial time. I need to ponder this more I guess. And oversoul needs to fucking do stuff.

This game still sucks.

[implosion]

And then there's that evil voice in the back of my head. It says that RC is playing a really convincingly town game and that I should be scumreading him for things like the "I'm nakedly town right now" post, even though I'm heavily townreading him for it. And then I think about his claim and a full look at the surrounding shit and I just can't see him as scum. And I'm going to be so goddamn pissed if he's scum. Like if he's scum it essentially breaks everything that I use to read people in mafia. If he's scum he's outplaying me right now really goddamn hard and that's annoying. But god this player list is so small and there are so many scum. And I still just cannot see him as scum. argh.

[implosion]

Tammy if you have time can you give comments on my thoughts on this game to whatever extent you can? I feel like we worked well together last time and this game I've just been completely ignoring you because I haven't had a lot of strong opinions to throw at you like I did last game.

Thanks.

[implosion]

Oh the irony. The post that I'm remembering in particular is one of me telling you to squash any paranoia you have about Nacho, which IIRC was entirely because of what he had claimed...

[fferyllt]

I think I need to get away from this game.

Implosion, everything you post looks scummy to me now. And that feels like massive confirmation bias.

[implosion]

I'm not really sure what my scumgame would look like after the year-ish long hiatus I took. I was gonna say I don't think it would look like this but aspects of it probably would, like the focusing on core townreads/waffling on others part, which is mostly because I've trained myself to do that as scum because I always wind up doing it as town. But I think my thought processes right now are not things that I would be able to fake here as scum.

[fferyllt]

Your stance changes feel so convenient. You've left yourself completely open to be able to vote anyone with the exception of notsci and tammy going forward.

[fferyllt]

And that happens to be the one concern I've never been able to shake about wicked.

[implosion]

That's a pretty reasonable concern to have. It just happens to be wrong. It's ultimately a matter of me repeatedly trying to get stronger/more entrenched reads, and then someone going and saying something that ruins that. Over and over and over again.

I could be more fine in my sorting of people into buckets of town/scum but it ultimately is true that I could imagine myself voting anyone other than tammy/ns (and probably rc) tomorrow. Which I will be the first to admit is a problem. And it's a problem that I keep trying to solve.

[fferyllt]

It doesn't sound like a wrong concern to have. It sounds like you're confirming that your willing-to-lynch pile as of toDay contains 7 maaaybe 6 players out of 9.

[implosion]

It's not my willing-to-lynch pile. It's the pile that I could imagine entering that pile. I don't really have an explicit willing-to-lynch pile right now. I guess in theory that pile should be {you, wicked, os, nacho} right now (gut would put pie as townier than you or wicked right now... but again everything is in flux pretty constantly in my head). And os/nacho are not in a sense "willing to lynch." I'm still trying to figure out which one of them I want to lynch, because I think it is one of them but not the other. In practice that pile does not exist. "Willing to lynch" is not a paradigm that I'm using to evaluate this game right now.

And yes. I see how that stance would be immensely convenient to me as scum. Especially if nacho/os were both town. But it's the way things are.

[fferyllt]

how do you see 3 of those 4 as a scumteam in this game?

[implosion]

I mean, I haven't done in-depth analysis of 3-person scumteams. There's nothing strongly blocking the possibilities of you-wicked-os or you-wicked-nacho in my head. There are some weak mental blocks (like your self-commentary on the way you'd been acting towards the vinkah slot making you+os less likely) but none of those are particularly strong. If there's something in particular that you want to point out that makes some particular 3-person team less likely that's fine but I'm trying to not think on the level of a 3-person team primarily (I know I've mentioned a lot of teams but I ultimately know that trying to actually call a team is wishful thinking).

[fferyllt]

I don't see myself and wicked to be any more likely than me and os in terms of our interactions throughout the game. I think the main thing that makes such a team impossible if I were scum is the discussions I had with S-s about him. People who know my scum game would he highly skeptical I'd lay down those sorts of associatives with a teammate.

I can see an argument for a team containing me/nacho coming from someone who hasn't played with us both recently.