Ok after sitting down, thinking about it, constantly re-writing, thinking some more, and re-writing again, this is my analysis.
I am absolutely sure about the following:
Out of Shinobi and Catboi, at the very least one has to be a townie.
I say this because I find it hard to believe that both sides are convinced of the other one's scumness without at least one of them having solid proof. If they're both innocent, then they both are sure of their innocence. There's also the fact they've both been pretty passionate about their reads of the other, and thats pretty hard to fake without at least one of them actually being innocent. This is good because we can eliminate the option that they're both scum which, while statically speaking is the least likely combination of the two, is something we can't ignore either and is something can help prove both's innocence further down the line. That being said, the 3 remaining combinations (which are Townie/Townie, Scum/Townie, and Townie/Scum) point towards it being more likely for one of them to be scum than for both of them to be innocent, since a probability of 2/3 (both combinations of Townie/Scum) is higher than one of 1/3 (Townie/Townie).
The rest of this is pure speculation and assumptions on my part so don't believe anything of it blindly:
Im basing the rest of this on the above paragraph, the fact that the majority of votes is split between RC/Shinobi, and that throughout the whole game Catboi/RC and Spiffeh/Shinobi have had the same votes.
I strongly believe that RC is the bad guys here.
I can't say the same of Shinobi/Spiffeh, since both of them weren't as quick to NOT be suspicious of one another, unlike Catboi/RC who've been drawing suspicion of one another while sharing the same vote all game. Catboi explained that he wasn't suspicious of him because he thought they shared the same thought process, mostly because at that point RC was the only person who thought Shinobi was scum. Unless Catboi can give a more compelling reason than "the way he thinks led him to the same conclusion as me" for his lower level suspicion towards RC than most other people, then it's pretty damn obvious that RC's the scum. But even if he gave a good explanation for his trusting, that would just mean he trusts RC, i.e. not strong evidence of RC's innocence.
New stuff after seeing the news posts:
RC could be doing a very clutch play here by doubling down on the outrage of being accused instead of trying to defend himself with solid reason. While normally innocent people would be just as mad as him, we've known he isn't afraid of looking like a giant douche bag for a while now, which means that 1) he isn't acting on an emotional outburst right now and 2) he's entirely capable of thinking up a plan like this. What I'm trying to say here is that we shouldn't use his outrage as proof of his innocence. If he replaces then I'd be more sure of his guilt, since if he were a townnie who truly doesn't enjoy the game he's playing, he would rather be lynched as a townie to screw over town players over just replacing himself with someone who could potentially aid the town players more than himself (which admittedly wouldnt be that hard if that were the case).
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
