Mini 1709: Radjarok: Game over!

[Radja]

DAY 1, VOTECOUNT 10

Wanderer-nl(5)

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Accountant, vijay2vasandani, SamX, stoz, gob

gob (4)

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havingfitz, Hopkirk, Klingoncelt, texcat

Accountant (2)

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Haschel Cedricson, Wanderer-nl

Salamence20 (1)

-

Salamence20

stoz (1)

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Dessew

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch! Deadline is on September 5th at 08:00 PM(GMT+1) or in (expired on 2015-09-05 08:00:00).

Mod Notes:
Dessew is on V/LA until Friday, September 4

[Hopkirk]

Rereading Texcat- only reasons for Gob scum are:
“I'm seeing a lot of activity from Gob that looks like activity for its own sake, posting just to be posting. And his reads list is basically a who has posted and who hasn't list. Very little about the quality of the posts.”
“But that combined with Gob making a lot of posts that were mostly without content. It's like he wants to be considered town because he posts a lot, without considering the quality of the posts.”
Which equates to Gob not posting any content- and I see less content from Texcat actually (not to say I think Gob is town, I have a different reason for the scumread). Could you expand a little bit on the Gob vote and other reads?

[Hopkirk]

151- got bored, wanted to move the game forward

271-On accountant? yes my read changed.

308- im still failing to see a question i havent answered yet.

151- Obviously you didn't just make reads with dice. I don't see the town logic behind the reads you made here.
271/308- To be clear: What's your read of Klingon now, and how did you get a result of town from your case?

[Wanderer-nl]

116 presents an intentionally misleading set of choices and seems like an overblown obfuscation meant to conceal a scumslip. I don't like it at all.

I feel like that sentence is coming out of a textbook..
Anyway, how do you know whether it was intentional?

"Ceaselessly" meaning that he never ceases his shitposting, from first post being a rather weak RVS to the present, across three separate accounts.

I still think it sort of misrepresents the slot because 'never ceases/never stops' seems to me like a spammer but potato potato I guess..

Why aren't you voting your strongest scumread right now?

I am. You are my strongest scumread, or rather your slot is. I haven't unvoted yet.

Ok, that was a misinterpretation of your post on my part.

Updated gob numbers:
Powerful role like Cop: 3%
Vanilla Townie: 20%
Scum: 75%
Buffer(aka "give or take this amount of percentage points"): 2%

I was hoping these numbers would come with some sort of thought process of how you came to these new values. And how good of an idea do you think it is to post in this thread whether someone is a PR-read?

@Wanderer: Why are you voting me, by the way? If you want to stop yourself from being lynched, gob is your best bet, so I'm interpreting this as a genuine scumread on me. My question is what posts of mine seem scummy to you?

I voted you because I felt you were ignoring most of my questions and I want to interact with you to sort you.
357 379 You keep talking of unvoting my slot but you don't actually do it.

@Hopkirk: I checked back to see what I missed but it turns out that havingfitz asked her about her read on gob in 224.

[Hopkirk]

@Hopkirk: I checked back to see what I missed but it turns out that havingfitz asked her about her read on gob in 224.

Ah, then change "instead of" to "as well as".

[Wanderer-nl]

@stoz: Can you comment on what I said about Gob?

I think your best point by far is that gob leaves himself openings to change his reads.
*cut*
I still think VeeGee was scummy, and Wanderer's replace-in guns blazing reminds me so much of BlueBloodedToffee replacing in as scum my last game.

So what do you think about that?
I can't explain or defend what Veegee did. I do understand the scumreads and I don't know what I would have done if I wasn't in this slot. I'm not BBT and I don't know what else to say about this.

@gob: What are your thoughts on the other things I said about Vijay?

I think Vidjay is town, im more concerned about what VeeGee said.

i thought i already replied to this tbh, i said after re-reading he looked less bored than he did real time, i think him avoiding me is very suspicious however.

Well, not to everything I said. And it feels a little weird that you are agreeing with me on the things you did comment on.

151- got bored, wanted to move the game forward

271-On accountant? yes my read changed.

308- im still failing to see a question i havent answered yet.

But not back then, because in 302 you say you still view her as town and then say that view is slowly changing.

[Hopkirk]

Ok quick look at Stoz
Pre 166: Nothing really said. You do have a point here actually Dessew, Stoz posts reads, but none that anyone would really look two ways at if he flipped the read. Of course it was the start of the day so this doesn’t mean too much.
166- Vote on Veegee for “activity for the sake of activity”
208- Responds to Dessew. Fair point about Dessew and Gob interaction being strange. He doesn’t go after Dessew though.
267- Example of what he’s done is really minor. The veegee vote doesn’t seem too well backed up at this point. Only other solid stance is accountant town.
355- Consistent on account as town read.
356- “No one should be surprised that Wanderer finds gob scum, it is the only competing wagon to the one on VeeGee / herself.” This feels like a bit of a strange comment. Are you saying the gob wagon is a bad wagon? If you think that Wander is scum, and is trying to misslynch Gob, then why haven’t you opposed the Gob vote? Already said I wasn’t sure what last sentence meant. The replacement thing- I saw a thread in mafia discussion that suggested replacement is null (statistically).
388- He definitely hasn’t said anything about Dessew that would make me think that he’s a top scumread before this. Not sure on the reasoning other than Dessew voting him.

I thought Stoz had said more actually. I want a bit more so...
@ Stoz: Can I get some of your scumreads other than Veegee, and maybe a little more on why you think Veegee is scum. Also what’s your Gob read?


Also, while we have time, some more pressure could be a good idea.
VOTE: Accountant

[SamX]

@Accountant: She*. I was making some observations with your posts and wanted to clarify before starting anything. So, not jumping on you, for the record.

[Salamence20]

There better be a good fucking reason Vijay isn't dead yet people.

Im fucking serious.

[stoz]

DAY 1, VOTECOUNT 10

Wanderer-nl(5)

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Accountant, vijay2vasandani, SamX, stoz, gob

gob (4)

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havingfitz, Hopkirk, Klingoncelt, texcat

Accountant (2)

-

Haschel Cedricson, Wanderer-nl

Salamence20 (1)

-

Salamence20

stoz (1)

-

Dessew

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch! Deadline is on September 5th at 08:00 PM(GMT+1) or in (expired on 2015-09-05 08:00:00).

Mod Notes:
Dessew is on V/LA until Friday, September 4

@Radja: Dessew unvoted me in #315

[stoz]

I'll explain a bit more about my thoughts on Dessew and gob

Part of what makes me thing gob might be scum is the way that Dessew was acting towards him. If we were able to confirm Dessew as town (either though a flip or some kind of power role) then it would reduce the scumminess of gob.

I certainly think Dessew is less scummy than both Wanderer and gob, I just see good information coming from Dessew if we had a way to confirm his alignment.

Maybe in general replace outs are null, but in a previous game I had VeeGee replace out as scum once people started putting pressure on him, so in this case it is based on VeeGee's meta (I know that sucks for Wanderer).

@Salamence20 why should we lynch Vijay? You are the other replace in and have provided much less content than Wanderer.

I will address the rest of the questions after work (or possibly at lunch)

[texcat]

@Salamence20 why should we lynch Vijay? You are the other replace in and have provided much less content than Wanderer.

And I find it incredible that you are calling for a Vijay lynch when your vote is still on yourself!!

[texcat]

@Hopkirk, the thing I find most scummy about Gob is the way he throws smudges around at almost everyone. Trying to find something that sticks?? He calls them scummy and doesn't back it up with a vote. When questioned, he can't even back up what he's said, at all.

Perhaps. I dislike posts like the one below that refer to "all the other scummy shit" without being able to clarify what that means or back it up. I wouldn't call that transparent. And it seems like a scum tactic to me. If you call someone scummy enough, town may start to believe you.

gob, do you believe VeeGee is scum or not?

Yes, i do believe he is scum, at this point i believe he noticed that he had fucked up so he decided to go all out and vote me, trying to play it off as just a bad play. Not to mention all the other scummy shit he has done.

Other examples,
* Says that Vijay is pulling posts out of his ass, but thinks he's town.
* Accuses me of not reading the thread when I pointed out that he obviously hadn't read it when he started speculating about SK. Has a scum read on me for "twisting his words", but can't explain how I twisted them.
* Says that Acct's logic is off, but then retracts that to say that her votes are all over the place, and then retracts that to say that Acct just flipped opinions, then retracted that to say that she's fence sitting.


Other reads? I'm being lazy and hoping for a flip before I reread. I'm inclined to think that VG/Wanderer and Acct are town, but due mostly to my read on Gob. I'm hoping that Hopkirk and Haschel are town because they seem to be putting some effort into sorting people and helping town. I've got a whole boatload of null reads, some that just haven't posted enough and some that I just need to reread more carefully.

[Salamence20]

@Salamence20 why should we lynch Vijay? You are the other replace in and have provided much less content than Wanderer.

And I find it incredible that you are calling for a Vijay lynch when your vote is still on yourself!!

We should lynch me.

No Im still working on catching up but my vote is most likely going on Vijay and I would love to hear opinions.

Im not joining any other wagons today besides accountant who is Vijay's buddy.

[gob]

151- got bored, wanted to move the game forward

271-On accountant? yes my read changed.

308- im still failing to see a question i havent answered yet.

151- Obviously you didn't just make reads with dice. I don't see the town logic behind the reads you made here.
271/308- To be clear: What's your read of Klingon now, and how did you get a result of town from your case?

dice?

271/308- I believe at this time Klingon is town, his tone has been normal and he seems to be pushing the game forward decently, he had a naked vote on me and frankly, i think that was incredibly towny.

[stoz]

And I find it incredible that you are calling for a Vijay lynch when your vote is still on yourself!!

We should lynch me.

No Im still working on catching up but my vote is most likely going on Vijay and I would love to hear opinions.

Why did you not do an unvote when you acknowledged this just now? There is no world at all where a self-vote makes sense, especially with no other votes on you!

271/308- I believe at this time Klingon is town, his tone has been normal and he seems to be pushing the game forward decently, he had a naked vote on me and frankly, i think that was incredibly towny.

she

[Salamence20]

Im planing on moving it. Why is it such an issue.

Its not like Im wagoned or anything

[Klingoncelt]

@wanderer: That's the scummiest of VG's posts, but I feel that what makes him really scummy is the fact that he basically quit the moment pressure was applied.

@SamX: That huge wall of pros and cons, those are my reasons.

I feel ready to switch to a gob lynch now since Wanderer is generating content and nobody seems willing to push on him. He's still my strongest scumread, however, and unless something changes I will probably vote him again tomorrow.

@gob: I feel that vijay is vanilla town.

has anyone considered that the Salamence slot might be a jester?

No, but with 2 players bouncing outta that slot, I'll bet Sal's Scum.

[Salamence20]

Thats what I was hoping for.

You have no idea how disappointed i was that Im town

[Accountant]

Im planing on moving it. Why is it such an issue.

Its not like Im wagoned or anything

Why the hell would you

not

move your vote? A vote is probably one of the strongest indicators of stance out there. By voting yourself, you're making yourself unreadable, especially with your smokescreen of yelling and general troll aura getting in the way. Or, to put it in more simple terms:

Why are you not moving your vote from someone you believe to be confirmed town(yourself) to someone you believed to be almost confirmed scum(vijay)?

I don't have the time to do a VeeGee ISO, but I promise I'll get it done soon. In general, I feel suspicious of VeeGee because he acted scummy on the first day, and then went utterly silent when placed under pressure, which is something I don't think people are emphasizing enough about his behavior. I do not like people who replace out when a wagon forms on them, and it invariably makes me think that they're scum who's retreating now that everything went tits-up. And the few posts he did make before he replaced failed to address any of the questions directed at him too, which makes me feel that he's being evasive, another big scumtell.

Wanderer's aggressive replace-in behavior is a null tell for me however; I can see why a town would do it just as much as scum. I still think his slot is scum, so I'm still voting him. Right now there seems to be 0 pressure placed on him, I don't see people pressuring Wanderer as actively as they're pressuring gob(which I must admit is also partially my fault), which is mildly frustrating because I sort of feel like the wagon has stalled.

@Gob's numbers:

I get numbers for reads as a way to quantify how I feel about a situation. A read of:

John is 70% town 30% scum

might be expressed as "John seems pretty town to me, I can't find any posts of his that are scummy at all" for someone else. I keep getting asked to justify these numbers, when I'm pretty sure that if I had just posted "gob is acting weird, I think he's scummy" I wouldn't be questioned and voted based on it. I stand by my decision of expressing my actual feelings about the probability that he's a powerful role. If I read him as 90% powerful it would be a different story, but I don't see how it helps scum for me to say that I feel there's a 3% chance he's powerful. Nor can I see how it helps me rolefish, gob's not going to softclaim just because I suddenly posted a percentage on him.

Anyway, how do you know whether it was intentional?

What, VeeGee

accidentally

presented a set of choices that was very obviously misleading, and which he should know was misleading?

@Accountant: What are you using Bayes for there?

I find that expressing your feelings as probabilities and then updating them accordingly is a useful method to quantify your feelings about any particular issue. Think of it as that scene in Death Note where L goes "there's a 95% chance that Light is Kira". We all know the actual chance is probably not 95%, but it helps the investigation team to understand where exactly L stands on his "scumread"(so to speak) of Light.

@Everyone who's voting me:
If you think I'm scum, who would my partner be?

[Salamence20]

Damn I hate that post above^

Also theres alot of bitching that Im not unvoting myself but not enough talk of a Vijay wagon for or against.

[Accountant]

Damn I hate that post above^

Also theres alot of bitching that Im not unvoting myself but not enough talk of a Vijay wagon for or against.

You've talked a lot about lynching vijay, but have neither given any evidence against him, stated a single reason why we should vote him or even voted him yourself, which you would think would be the most fundamental step.

Why don't you like my post? What other reads do you have other than "Vijay and Accountant are confirmed scum"?

[Wanderer-nl]

@Accountant: Then why did I have to repeatedly ask for your updated numbers on gob? And where are your numbers on my slot? I think you could be buddies with gob and either Vijay or Dessew. I have to admit I didn't look into associations yet (I don't like doing that before any flip) but you and gob being buddies I'm basing on your reluctance to vote him even though you hinted at that, and gob townreading you while finding things you did scummy.

[stoz]

Damn I hate that post above^

Also theres alot of bitching that Im not unvoting myself but not enough talk of a Vijay wagon for or against.

Perhaps vote Vijay yourself if you are that concerned?

[Accountant]

@Accountant: Then why did I have to repeatedly ask for your updated numbers on gob? And where are your numbers on my slot? I think you could be buddies with gob and either Vijay or Dessew. I have to admit I didn't look into associations yet (I don't like doing that before any flip) but you and gob being buddies I'm basing on your reluctance to vote him even though you hinted at that, and gob townreading you while finding things you did scummy.

If you want numbers on your slot:

90% scum
6% town
0.01% powerful role
3.99% buffer