I feel like betting on presidential nominees & other events like that, which I know is a thing, is free money and I have no idea how legal it is or isn't
In post 800, MonkeyMan576 wrote:I.e. Jeb vs sanders not happening, hillary vs trump not happening etc
That's a weird way to say "there's an 80% chance of clinton being the nominee" unless you think Sanders/Biden/Whoever would for some reason be more/less likely to run against Bush if they were to be nominated.
"Jeb vs. Hillary is almost 80% likely imho. Trump has a small chance at a nom but almost none at winning. The only reason he is doing well now is no one takes the gop seriously."
and then when I said that seemed really high you said
"80% at jeb vs hillary vs. Other matchups, not 80% at jeb winning" and "I.e. Jeb vs sanders not happening, hillary vs trump not happening etc"
so I'm really not sure what you're trying to say.
Is it:
1) "I think there is an 80% chance we will see Bush vs. Clinton"
2) "I think that if Bush is the nominee there is an 80% chance we will see Bush vs. Clinton"
or some third option?
Or to put it another way: what do you think is the likelihood that Jeb Bush will win the nomination? Hillary Clinton?
I am going to have to disagree that Bush is the most likely Republican candidate to go forth.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
I think bush is the most likely, but I don't think he's anywhere near the majority probability to do so. If I were wagering, I'd actually put money on Rubio if given decent odds.
Rubio has no where near the political support that Bush does. Rubio is one of those candidates that looks like they would be a good choice from a conservative POV, but they never do anything to put themselves on the national stage.
The most likely to get the republican nomination probably is Bush, Rubio, or Scott Walker. Trump has maybe a 5% chance. Which is higher then i would have said a month ago.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
I can imagine Kasich ending up with the Republican nomination, I'd actually say he's among the three most likely right now IMO. Jeb is fading, Trump will inevitably fade if only because the party elites hate him, Scott Walker is patently unelectable, I wouldn't be surprised for Trump supporters to end up behind Cruz down the road. Early guess at eventual top 3 are Cruz, Rubio, Kasich.
Jeb is too afraid of his own last name to ever garner enough support from the republicans. None of them will ever vote democrat but they simply might not vote. I think that's the issue republicans have with a lot of the GOP field. You have to have someone who will draw voters and can be somewhat moderate while doing so. Which, the candidates right now only fill one part of that.
I could see people being tricked into voting for Kasich. I live in Ohio and his popularity is incredibly misleading right now. Dumbass democrat nom was caught cheating on his wife on an expired drivers license when he was putting the final nails into Kasich's coffin. Some of his stances on social issues is a nice change of pace, but he's impossible when it comes to unions and collective bargaining.
Cruz stands as much chance as Rick Perry and Ron Paul for getting the nod. He's too extreme and would never draw independent voters. Trump is really Cruz's more adaptive brother anyways. And American, which is a free 10 style points in the GOP.
The one thing to watch is the polling numbers of the lifetime politicians in the GOP if they shut down the government. I've heard some tea party officials say that they only care about the independent vote and that they'll forget about the shutdowns (really?) by election time. However, if Trump/Carson wants to, they can slam the party for being inefficient/'cry babies' or whatever sort of terminology they can come up with. I could see the GOP being forced into Trump as the nomination if this shutdown goes sour.
Also yes #FeelTheBern. I don't like Hillary's decision to suck up to the banks and make comments such as "I'm more liberal in the primaries than general election" as if she isn't super conservative as it is. Her only quality that keeps her from being like John Kasich is her lack of attempts to destroy unions. She's good at being a politician, but she simply doesn't speak to the heart of the democratic caucus anymore.
