Mini 1715 - Z - Game over!

[Thor665]

@Thor I feel better about my vote now than when I voted her because I'm getting the impression she's chickening. She didn't even claim.

Why does that make her more likely scum in your eyes?

1. You are making some good points about the Ciara wagon, which is why I'm willing to lynch her now.

2. At the time, I was assuming she was not going post. But that is why I was asking. I wasn't sure what the protocol is for lynching someone who is in replace range.

3. Now that she has posted and still has not claimed, does that change your answer?

1. I thought I was mostly repeating myself except for the 'more info from a Karmic wagon' thing - was that what sold you?

2. Depends on if you want to hear their claim or not.

3. No.

You also didn't address how I parsed down your Karmic case, I asked if I was unfair in that parsing - your thoughts?

She's been in enough games to know she should have claimed.

Do you think she read anything in the game prior to making that post regardless of her alignment - I don't, but you sound like you're sure she did. Otherwise that wouldn't be a point against her.

[pistachi0n]

Yeah, she even acknowledged it in her post.

[Gimlear]

You also didn't address how I parsed down your Karmic case, I asked if I was unfair in that parsing - your thoughts?

The part that I thought was unfair is that you omitted the part of the case where it was repeated behavior. Instead, you made it seem like by dismissing the one argument as not scummy that it dismantled the whole argument when the argument had always been a case of repeated behavior.

Anyways, I can see where eventi is coming from with his arguments, but unfortunately without her direct confirmation we can only infer from what she said. It would be great if the mod could chime in to let us know if we're going to get a replacement. Otherwise, we need to do something quickly.

[eventi]

She's been in enough games to know she should have claimed.

Do you think she read anything in the game prior to making that post regardless of her alignment - I don't, but you sound like you're sure she did. Otherwise that wouldn't be a point against her.

Her post seems to acknowledge the talk about replacement in your post directly before it. You probably wouldnt have read them in order since you posted the previous one.

She could have posted without reading, but it's hard to believe that she saw the prod message, but didn't have the inclination to check the VC at the top of the page before posting.

[Thor665]

Yeah, she even acknowledged it in her post.

She admitted to be a lurkfail. Not to chickening out. No?

The part that I thought was unfair is that you omitted the part of the case where it was repeated behavior.

Can you show the repetition?
I grok that it happened with the lurking to not scumhunting bit. When was the second (or third or fourth) time he did it?

It would be great if the mod could chime in to let us know if we're going to get a replacement. Otherwise, we need to do something quickly.

We have 24 hours to hear from the mod - I suspect we'll manage.

Her post seems to acknowledge the talk about replacement in your post directly before it. You probably wouldnt have read them in order since you posted the previous one.

She could have posted without reading, but it's hard to believe that she saw the prod message, but didn't have the inclination to check the VC at the top of the page before posting.

I don't think she needed to read my post to be aware of her lurkfail.

Yeah, maybe, but it's equally likely she didn't. I have not been blown away by her insightful reading up to this point regardless of her alignment, and at least with the scumhunting one she looked like she gave a damn as opposed to her limp-wristed replace out without admitting replacing out post here.

[SilverWolf]

I would rather not be replaced but I understand that I haven't been active, and I will leave that decision up to the mod. Will be busy this weekend but life should hopefully settle down by Monday.

This is bad. Monday is past deadline. I have a hard time believing she didn't notice that or that she was at L-1 and needed to claim. I think she's avoiding the thread and avoiding saying anything at this point. Despite being busy, claiming takes literally less than a minute. My only hesitation is this seems to be an issue for her elsewhere also. She should of replaced out days ago.

[Thor665]

Eh, I'm not sure I believe she noticed that, that said, with a trifecta of hammer intents on her she is either the most needed mislynch in the world, or scum is desperate to try to claim some glory, so I'll admit I'm feeling fairly confident about the idea of the flip. There's almost a frightening surplus of reactions to read about this wagon.

[zakk]

EXPERIMENT NOTES 1.17

SUBJECTS ASSERTING AGGRESSIVE ACTIVITY:

Ciara24 [6] Thor665, KarmicGuide, Radja, pistachi0n, Nachomamma8, eventi
KarmicGuide [4] gummmybear, Garmr, Gimlear, Bellaphant
pistachi0n [1] davesaz
Bellaphant [0]
davesaz [0]
eventi [0]
Garmr [0]
Gimlear [0]
gummmybear [0]
Nachomamma8 [0]
Radja [0]
SilverWolf [0]
Thor665 [0]

SUBJECTS DISPLAYING PASSIVE TENDENCY:

Ciara24, SilverWolf

[Gimlear]

Can you show the repetition?
I grok that it happened with the lurking to not scumhunting bit. When was the second (or third or fourth) time he did it?

The two main places where he did this were #84 and #264. It feels like he's blindly throwing darts at a board here, hoping that something catches on. None of the points he mentions could really be considered scummy. Then again, this behavior isn't necessarily scummy either.

It would be great if the mod could chime in to let us know if we're going to get a replacement. Otherwise, we need to do something quickly.

We have 24 hours to hear from the mod - I suspect we'll manage.

What I meant here is that if we aren't getting a replacement, we need to decide whether we're ok with lynching without a claim or if we are going to rush another wagon. If we get a replacement, then we have time because of the extension.

[gummmybear]

The two wagons are between Karmic and Ciara. I had previously stated that Karmic was my only town read. I got the gut feeling that Thor's posts were genuine. So I reluctantly switched to Ciara.

I know the rules say 2 weeks, but the lack of a posted timer means it could sneak up on us.

pistachi0n, why is KarmicGuide your only townread? I just ISO'ed you, and there are no mentions of any reasons why KarmicGuide is town. Is this another gut read? And why reluctantly onto Ciara? Do you think she is possible town?

Also, I still doubt the veracity of your claim on a lack of posted timer, and not knowing the deadline. Here's why:

Thor, I'm scum reading your attempt to push a huge wagon on Ciara. And like Dave just said, we (probably) have 8 calendar days. I'm not feeling the danger of a no lynch yet. I think what you're doing is a scum driven attempt to get someone you perceive as a threat out of the game. If a no lynch seems impending after a few more calendar days, I will join a wagon that you are not on.

Here you say that you don't feel the danger of a no-lynch, and believe the 8 calendar days till deadline - but use probably to hedge that.

Thor's reactions since the last time I posted seem town. I still don't like the Ciara wagon, but Karmic is a stronger town read. With no posted countdown, I can't bet on it being 2 weeks. So fine.

VOTE: Ciara

Here's where you vote for Ciara, 3 days after your previous post. In between that, town has been rather active and a small wagon (4 people) has even built up on Karmic - it seems to me that it is unlikely that there will be a no lynch. However, rather than scumhunting, you choose to instead go for a "compromise lynch" out of deadline fears. Of particular note is your choice of Karmic as a "stronger town read" - this seems to indicate that you have a weaker town read on Ciara, or at least, don't think she is scum (supported by how you "don't like" it.)

The two wagons are between Karmic and Ciara. I had previously stated that Karmic was my only town read. I got the gut feeling that Thor's posts were genuine. So I reluctantly switched to Ciara.

You have spoken nothing about Ciara between voting her and your response to her. In your ISO, You have NOT stated that Karmic is your only town read, only that Karmic is your strongest, and in the context of voting Ciara, a "stronger town read" (stronger than who? reading it seems to imply than Ciara is a town read too as stated earlier, clarify if I'm misinterpreting please.) So what changed between then and here?

Why is Karmic now your only town read, implying Ciara is not a town read? And are you reading her as scum?

If not, WHO IS SCUM?

I think you are. You aren't scumhunting and seem to have admitted to voting a townread. VOTE: pistachi0n. It's late in the day to hop off a wagon, but Ciara is one vote away from lynch, and I hope we may get an extension.

[gummmybear]

Side note to anyone who may be rereading like me: I'm reviewing KarmicGuide as I'm moving off the wagon, and though I haven't solidified my opinion yet, I realised we need to reread everything said by Karmic replacing L2 with L-1, as Karmic thought that L2 is claim time (L2 on MTGsalvation = L-1 over here, mentioned when Ciara was brought to L-1). And that brings up some strange points, like wanting to run people up to L-1 (mentioned as L-2) to get claims - isn't this PR hunting? Also the last guy to mention this in my only completed game turned out to be scum. If anyone else is free to (Thor or Nacho, hopefully?), could you do a reread in the light of that info? Updating my read to a slight

FoS

because of that (and thinking pista is more worthy of lynch). I'm heading out now, but will be active to read tonight and tomorrow (UTC + 8 hours time, so I think that's today and tomorrow morning for most of you all). So I can hop back onto any of the wagons if there's a danger of nolynch.

[gummmybear]

Also EBWOP for #434,

I wrote half that post and got busy, and forgot to follow up and state explicitly in my case on how the short 3 day difference between stating plenty of time (8 days probably) and hopping onto the wagon because of "no countdown" is suspicious, before heading into my 2nd point of no scumhunting.

[Garmr]

well I got three town reads that stand out to me.

Nachomamma- Well this ones pretty strong at the moment. After emphasizing the grudge I have with him to extreme levels when thor asks what do you think of this. He answers with this

@Nacho - thoughts on Garmr and the WK thought I had.

Intentionally not unvoting Ciara while asking this.

I don't think it's very likely. I read a little bit into Garmr's games as scum to see if he plays like this as scum (he doesn't); I also don't think that the condescension in the "I'm the only not idiot" in the attitude is faked and don't think it would feature so predominantly if we were trying to lynch a townie as a counterwagon to Garmr!scum trying to lynch a townie.

This here shows his researching the game and this post strikes me as town. If nacho was scum he could easily of agreed with thor getting rid of a potential problem(aka me) in the future and I don't think anyone here but silver wolf and dave would of had the the experience with me to disagree. there's mutiple town vibes coming out of this.


My next biggest town read is bellaphant
she has extremely similar opinions as me she strikes a cord as town but through I have a opinion I utterly disagree with but that doesn't matter as My gut is telling this slot is town.

Woody/silver
Welp I feel heaps better about woody he seeme to be really in it after reading back he gave me a newbie eager town sort of vibe. Silver hasn't really done enough to change my opinion on the slot through my gut still says town through.

[Garmr]

I left ciara off my town reads list for a reason because I believe no matter what I do today she's going to be lynched so I am now starting to gather my thought about tomorrow and the people on the list I have presented are pretty much town in my eyes no matter ciaras flip.

[eventi]

Her post seems to acknowledge the talk about replacement in your post directly before it. You probably wouldnt have read them in order since you posted the previous one.

She could have posted without reading, but it's hard to believe that she saw the prod message, but didn't have the inclination to check the VC at the top of the page before posting.

I don't think she needed to read my post to be aware of her lurkfail.

Yeah, maybe, but it's equally likely she didn't.

It's possible that she posted something seemingly related to the thing you quoted/said right above her post, yes. But it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, so I'm calling it a duck.

It really doesn't matter, though:

I have not been blown away by her insightful reading up to this point regardless of her alignment, and at least with the scumhunting one she looked like she gave a damn as opposed to her limp-wristed replace out without admitting replacing out post here.

I would rather not be replaced but I understand that I haven't been active, and I will leave that decision up to the mod. Will be busy this weekend but life should hopefully settle down by Monday.

This is bad. Monday is past deadline. I have a hard time believing she didn't notice that or that she was at L-1 and needed to claim. I think she's avoiding the thread and avoiding saying anything at this point. Despite being busy, claiming takes literally less than a minute. My only hesitation is this seems to be an issue for her elsewhere also. She should of replaced out days ago.

If she was town, she should just replace out. It would buy town another week to figure it out. I just don't see town motivation for doing what she's doing.

[KarmicGuide]

Eventi = Not much to go on, kind of seems like unlikely scum... Also feels like a smart player. Could be a great town asset with more contribution. Bad D1 lynch.

Why does eventi seem like unlikely scum to you?

When I was doing that write-up for everyone, I went back through the game and did some quick mental PBPA's on people who I didn't have strong opinions on. My gutread on Eventi had gone back and forth all game, and in reading through his posts, I didn't really find anything that stood out as sketchy.

[Garmr]

Eventi = Not much to go on, kind of seems like unlikely scum... Also feels like a smart player. Could be a great town asset with more contribution. Bad D1 lynch.

Why does eventi seem like unlikely scum to you?

When I was doing that write-up for everyone, I went back through the game and did some quick mental PBPA's on people who I didn't have strong opinions on. My gutread on Eventi had gone back and forth all game, and in reading through his posts, I didn't really find anything that stood out as sketchy.

Can you actually list a reason why eventi is town. Also I feel eventi has contributed next to nothing and has been pretty worthless so far can you list some example of why you think he could a asset to town.

[SilverWolf]

Eh, I'm not sure I believe she noticed that, that said, with a trifecta of hammer intents on her she is either the most needed mislynch in the world, or scum is desperate to try to claim some glory, so I'll admit I'm feeling fairly confident about the idea of the flip. There's almost a frightening surplus of reactions to read about this wagon.

I agree, the reads we can get off this wagon and the wagon on Karmic will give us plenty of information for D2. I do think the fact that Ciara knew she was prodded means she must have known she's been away for awhile. She mentioned the possibility of being replaced which means she must of read at least that much from the mod. I doubt she didn't look to see where she was in terms of votes or that a claim was asked for. I doubt she didn't know deadline was coming up. Instead she just posted she's busy and won't be back until after deadline. I really don't like this reaction to her wagon. It would of taken maybe 5 minutes to claim and maybe post something that will be helpful to town if she flips town. But she'd denying us that information. At least say, my reads are the same or something.

I'd like to flip this wagon. The only reason I haven't is because people are still talking and I'll be around before deadline.

[Radja]

Site was down last night, so I couldn't catch up. Let's see if I can pick this up. I'm going to attempt not making this a big wall post filled with quotes.

-Bella, you mention in #201 you're not seeing Ciara as a scum read. Has this changed at this point?
-Dave's #204 is pretty good.
-Garmr: in 216 you stated you went from townreading to more of a nullread on Nacho. How are you reading him now?
-Eventi: In 219, you only comment on someone attacking your new playstyle, yet you don't mention anything else. Why are you defensive about your style being different, if it's supposed to be better? And why don't you continue playing instead of worrying about how you look?
-KarmicGuide: What's your read on Eventi?
-KarmicGuide: my read on pistachion: I have a slight scumread on him, but I think that's mostly because I disagree with most of what he says. No strong feelings. What about you?
-Gimlear, how are you reading Thor?
-Eventi's 300 looks convenient in moving to scumread Ciara: What made you change your mind? Ciara hasn't posted anything and you go from townreading to scumreading her. If Ciara flips town, this might be scum on the wagon.
-Eventi's 348: Reads haven't changed, votes Ciara. His read did change in 300, without explaining why. I still want that explanation.
-The whole battle of wagons between Thor+Nacho vs Garmr looks like Town trying to get their way.
-gummy's 362: Ciara's wagon got to L-1 very fast? I don't consider 15 pages fast at all... Why are you making this point?
-note to self: not townreading Bella on page 16 yet. Starting to get worried.
-Karmic: why do you think Eventi is a smart player?
-Ciara's 420 should have had a claim in it. We're not getting a replacement as the mod posted a VC. 17 hours until deadline. I think we should hammer.

[Gimlear]

@Radja: While I was initially wary of Thor for pushing the Ciara wagon so hard so early, I'm getting a much better town vibe from him now that he has explained his thought processes.

Also, I think you are correct about the deadline. I was mainly waiting for others to continue to chime in, but if no one is against it and no one has hammered by later tonight, I was going to go ahead and hammer to make sure we don't miss the deadline. I really don't see us flash wagoning someone else this late.

[Thor665]

The two main places where he did this were #84 and #264.

Can you explain how 84 is backtracking? I will admit I just read through it without being hyper careful, but I did it twice and am missing the issue you have there.
I understand your issue with 264 - we've talked about that one, I was looking for at least one in addition to that since your stated issue is the repetition.

wanting to run people up to L-1 (mentioned as L-2) to get claims - isn't this PR hunting? Also the last guy to mention this in my only completed game turned out to be scum. If anyone else is free to (Thor or Nacho, hopefully?), could you do a reread in the light of that info?

I am not a good one to reread in light of that info, because I consider pressing for an L-1(2) claim wagon or three on Day 1 to be pro-town.

I like your pistach vote, actually - but since the mod hasn't shown up in 24 hours (grumble) I am sticking where I am at for the nonce.

I left ciara off my town reads list for a reason because I believe no matter what I do today she's going to be lynched so I am now starting to gather my thought about tomorrow and the people on the list I have presented are pretty much town in my eyes no matter ciaras flip.

I agree, the reads we can get off this wagon and the wagon on Karmic will give us plenty of information for D2. I do think the fact that Ciara knew she was prodded means she must have known she's been away for awhile. She mentioned the possibility of being replaced which means she must of read at least that much from the mod. I doubt she didn't look to see where she was in terms of votes or that a claim was asked for. I doubt she didn't know deadline was coming up. Instead she just posted she's busy and won't be back until after deadline. I really don't like this reaction to her wagon. It would of taken maybe 5 minutes to claim and maybe post something that will be helpful to town if she flips town. But she'd denying us that information. At least say, my reads are the same or something.

I can kind of see that presuming the mod didn't include that info in his prod PM to her.

[Thor665]

-Eventi's 300 looks convenient in moving to scumread Ciara: What made you change your mind? Ciara hasn't posted anything and you go from townreading to scumreading her. If Ciara flips town, this might be scum on the wagon.

Why no issue with how Pistach changed his vote?

-Ciara's 420 should have had a claim in it. We're not getting a replacement as the mod posted a VC. 17 hours until deadline. I think we should hammer.

That is a good point, Mod has expressly accepted a v/la till after day deadline from Ciara even though he didn't state so.
I am underwhelmed on multiple fronts.

[Bellaphant]

@rad, I wasn't really sold on the case, and I still would prefer eithee karmic or a flash wagon on pista. However the behaviour around the claim is skeevy and, although I hate information lynches, the slot has basically become lynch bait. I think it was Thor who said their replacement is fucked

[Bellaphant]

Ugh, phone posting, but yeah. Tldr - I am not opposed to the lynch, even tho it isn't my preferred, esp if we don't get a deadline extention.

[Thor665]

I hate information lynches

I get the feeling we must use different definitions of the term - I love them and the only thing better is an assured scum lynch.