Open 609: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

Luna Fox · Post Post #1300 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:49 am

Oh wait, i was going to reply to that and ended up talking about that, oh well w/e, no one here cares about my opinion since im obviously scum and everyone's going to lynch me.

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1301 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:27 am

In post 1300, Luna Fox wrote:Oh wait, i was going to reply to that and ended up talking about that, oh well w/e, no one here cares about my opinion since im obviously scum and everyone's going to lynch me.

luna. nobody alive is even voting you.
panther was pushing both counters to silver d1. why is he so town. talk to me.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1302 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:42 am

In post 1301, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 1300, Luna Fox wrote:Oh wait, i was going to reply to that and ended up talking about that, oh well w/e, no one here cares about my opinion since im obviously scum and everyone's going to lynch me.

luna. nobody alive is even voting you.
panther was pushing both counters to silver d1. why is he so town. talk to me.

It's mostly coz i believe at least 1 scum bus'd silver, the only ppl that voted silver that are unflipped are you, me and Diego.
The only issue i have with panther is him having consistently bad reads.

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1303 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:46 am

In post 1302, Luna Fox wrote:
In post 1301, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 1300, Luna Fox wrote:Oh wait, i was going to reply to that and ended up talking about that, oh well w/e, no one here cares about my opinion since im obviously scum and everyone's going to lynch me.

luna. nobody alive is even voting you.
panther was pushing both counters to silver d1. why is he so town. talk to me.

It's mostly coz i believe at least 1 scum bus'd silver, the only ppl that voted silver that are unflipped are you, me and Diego.
The only issue i have with panther is him having consistently bad reads.

so we have in the pp!scum camp;
1 counterwagon on lurky town
1 counterwagon on disliked and suspicious town
1 wagon on scum

I don't see scum bussing in this scenario.
Also the two counterwagons being alive is interesting. What if PP noticed the all-town wagon? His posts seem like edgily throwing stage just little enough to not vote.
I'm leaning him for scum at this point, he's your only townread. We need to discuss things. Please respond.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1304 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:51 am

Yeah, also another thing i find odd about PP, is that... every single time someone tries to justify them being alive is because they are self-conscious of their reason of being alive, a.k.a scum that needs a reason to change their reads, while having static reads is a thing scum tends to do, the switch feels unnatural and motivated by a certain dead tracker.

As I said, the only reason giving me pause is that im used to assume there's always at least 1 scum on every lynch wagon and at most AmmountOfLivingScum-1 Even when this hits scum, Although when it hits town it's more of a Min(AmmountOfLivingScum-1 | 2) at least. That's pretty much the basis for my VCA, there are times indeed when a wagon full of town hits scum, but those are rare, since scum are likely to try to get towncred for being on a scum lynch wagon, and even more rare are full town on town wagons, although i've seen them happen.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1305 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:52 am

If you think about it tho ika wanted to hammer Silver, but i stole that from him.

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1306 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:56 am

In post 1304, Luna Fox wrote:Yeah, also another thing i find odd about PP, is that... every single time someone tries to justify them being alive is because they are self-conscious of their reason of being alive, a.k.a scum that needs a reason to change their reads, while having static reads is a thing scum tends to do, the switch feels unnatural and motivated by a certain dead tracker.

As I said, the only reason giving me pause is that im used to assume there's always at least 1 scum on every lynch wagon and at most AmmountOfLivingScum-1 Even when this hits scum, Although when it hits town it's more of a Min(AmmountOfLivingScum-1 | 2) at least. That's pretty much the basis for my VCA, there are times indeed when a wagon full of town hits scum, but those are rare, since scum are likely to try to get towncred for being on a scum lynch wagon, and even more rare are full town on town wagons, although i've seen them happen.

Or we could not rely on VCA near endgame?

(now why did you vote vedith yesterday and we have an agreement)

Luna Fox · Post Post #1307 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:00 am

I voted him because i found it odd that he would suspect the IC.
Then i realized "oh wait, we were just talking about why the IC is alive at day start, if he forgot who the IC is, this makes sense".

When he said something about he would have a partner, i said it was a good point, so my next procedure in mind was to check if there was anyone else who would forget that alch was the IC, because if there wasn't then obviously Vedith's point makes sense and i would have unvoted him.

But then he started with all this snark about me being scum and what not, and so i got pissed.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1308 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:04 pm

...@ *thumbleweed*

Diego1487 · Post Post #1309 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:12 am

I'm going to be completely honest here: I haven't paid that close attention to Panther up until the last page. When I entered the game, his pushes and leadership role screamed town to me, so I prioritized trying to read other players. Now my only town read(other than Alch obviously) is in question. But then again, my strongest gut scum read is the one trying to discredit Panther, so it might just be him throwing shade on the situation. I'm going to need some time to think about this.

Diego1487 · Post Post #1310 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:13 am

Alch, any thoughts?

Alchemist21 · Post Post #1311 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:35 am

This is gonna take me a while. I need to reread pretty much every slot still alive as well as the dead scum.

At the moment going on what notes I took, I would guess either Mario or Luna, but I need to make sure Diego and Panther are as Towny as I've been assuming all game.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1312 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:38 am

Btw, I assure you that if i go to LyLo with anyone scumreading me it's gonna be a town loss, so unless everyone townreads me lynch me today pls. I sux at defending myself in LyLo because i always assume the first person to vote me is scum and then... i can't see them as town ever...

Alchemist21 · Post Post #1313 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:52 pm

In post 888, Luna Fox wrote:
In post 887, ika wrote:UNVOTE:

trolllolololol

i want hammer luna vote

This means that me voting would just mean you'll hammer so is the same in the end.
I'll still wait for ppl to comment, as you can see already Performer is not ok with a hammer yet.

In post 899, Luna Fox wrote:Now im hoping that the stuff about ika's hammer is false.

In post 904, Luna Fox wrote:I guess... i wanted more ppl to talk before hammering but i dont think we're going anywhere

Unvote
Vote: silver

I was going to start with stuff about TTH/Diego, but this caught my eye and I wanted to bring it up before I forgot. We know Ika was scum with Silver. On appearance, it looks like he wanted the hammer as Ika is known to do, but it could have been an attempt to stall the wagon by asking for the hammer then going AFK. If Luna was scum with both of them, I'd think she wouldn't have the concerned tone in 899 because that comes from wanting more discussion and if they were both going to bus I don't think she would have cared about the hammer. Ultimately she hammers instead of waiting for Ika, so I think that points towards a Town Luna here.

Alchemist21 · Post Post #1314 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:12 pm

In post 507, TellTaleHeart wrote:X|

I meant to get to this yesterday but I didn't and I'm
still
not all here.
Scattered things: I'm townreading both the replace-ins (Luna and Shiro). Quick evaluation of the Lizard wagon: I like the composition of the wagon. Lizard herself has mostly escaped my notice and I'm not town reading anything of hers so I'll vote the wagon and move things along.

VOTE: Lizard

This vote put Lizard to L-1. TTH wasn't actually scumreading the slot, but liked the wagon composition (something I agreed with at the time.

Votecount 1.09

Lizard_Buttock - 5 - Firebringer, Shiro, ika, Vedith, Luna Fox
Bellaphant - 2 - Alchemist21, Sparrowbird
Luna Fox- 2 - Flow Alpha, Bellaphant
Sparrowbird - 1 - MaxwellPuckett
TellTaleHeart - 1 - PantherPunt
Vedith - 1 - Lizard_Buttock

Not Voting: TellTaleHeart

Up to that point, the wagon had 3 Town, 1 scum, and a current "?".

In post 756, TellTaleHeart wrote:
Mod, please replace me as I don't have the time to spend on this game.

I thought I would do this tonight but I
still
have three papers to read by tomorrow and I haven't even eaten dinner yet.
Usually I'd be in my element reading and writing walls, but I just don't have the time to devote to this site now since I've got a couple new projects to do. Phooey.

If it means anything to anyone, I have reasonably strong townreads on ika, Alchemist, Panther, Luna, and Shiro. It looks like none of them are in serious danger of getting lynched anyway so that's good. You should keep it that way.

And in her final list of Townreads she has 2 Towns, 1 scum, and 2 ?'s. The interesting point to note in all this is that she was more concerned with getting her Townreads known. I know Townhunting is a thing, but I can't help but think this may have been trying to slip Ika into the Town pile for everyone and keep him from getting lynched, though at the time he didn't need it. There's also the issue that she only gave us her Townreads to work with at the end rather than any scumreads. I would think that Town TTH would know that a full readslist would have been more helpful to us.

In post 831, Diego1487 wrote:I had a long crappy day at work followed by a night filled with BS schoolwork. I'm not going to lie...so far, I've only skimmed the last five pages. Initial thoughts...Alch, Panther, and Shiro are pretty town. I say that because it appears that they wish to lead group conversation, as opposed to saying, "Yea, I agree!"

Mario's 701 reads, "Please anyone put me." So I'd say that's pretty scummy.

It reads so far that Silverjaws appears to be lurking caught-scum by the voters. @all: what was the original reason for the wagon?

Oh, and Shiro...if you expect me to read 30+ pages in less than 24 hours, get ready to stay"unimpressed" with my play.

This early post by Diego seems Towny. The silver scumread early on at a time when he could have ignored the wagon is a point towards Town, but tehe next quote is where I have questions.

In post 959, Diego1487 wrote:I'm interested right now in the Mario counter wagon. This wagon feels scum led to me. Alchemist, after jumping off the Bellaphant wagon(town) parks on Mario for the rest of D1. Mysteriously, after not being able to lynch Bella, she shows up dead over night?! Very fishy. Also, Maxwell's vote near the end of the day for Mario adds strength to a counter wagon on scum. He states he's not opposed to a Silver lynch, but never does anything about it. I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to take credit for catching scum D1 later on in this game.

Right now, I'm good for either of these votes. Right now, I'll go with the larger wagon.

VOTE: Alchemist21

@Diego

, did you think I was bussing Silver when I voted him? Do you think scum tend to kill people they couldn't lynch even if that player wasn't a serious threat? Lastly, what do you make of Mario now that both the players you felt were scum pushing a counterwagon are known to be Town?

Alchemist21 · Post Post #1315 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:30 pm

In post 503, Sparrowbird wrote:
Sparrowbird
ika
Firebringer
Vedith

PantherPunt
Luna Fox
Flow Alpha
TellTaleHeart

Alchemist21
MaxwellPuckett

Lizard_Buttock
Shiro

Bellaphant

In post 648, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 636, PantherPunt wrote:
In post 631, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 624, Luna Fox wrote:Interesting to note, Sparrow/Mario keep avoiding mentioning anything related to why they wouldn't prefer to lynch TTH over Silver, despite being asked multiple times by panther.

There are more scummy players.

Can you help me out and give some semblance of support for any of your reads? I don't understand why you keep refusing to do so, tbh. I mean- unless you are scum and are trying to avoid spewing your team since others have meta on you.

The reason I made a fucking alt is that I'm fucking tired of meta.
And my reads are actually mostly gut. Silverjaws has slanged mud at everyone, so I'm scumreading him. You and Luna reads as classic TvT to me. Ika is ika and he basically has an activity tell that is basically never broken. I see scum movitation in clogging up the thread, and Alchemist is the only one apart from you and Luna, who are townreads, to do that. Plus Alchemist's post 435 almost seems like guilt/fustration that he helped make his buddy replace out.
Apart from that, yeah, mostly gut. (And gut adds to the reads I've mentioned anyway.)

In post 1216, MarioManiac4 wrote:It seems that I am the scum mislynch today, which makes me sad.
VOTE: ika
If this isn't scum then I have no idea what to say. His activity is pretty telling.

Now a question for Mario.

@Mario

If you knew about Ika's activity tell then why was he a strong Townread at 503, and also why did you wait until D3 to bring it up?

Alchemist21 · Post Post #1316 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:31 pm

If I don't go through Panther/Luna tonight it will probably be Monday before I do them.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1317 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:10 pm

Panther's votes over time:

Alchemist

, Diego,

Alchemist

,

Alchemist (again)

.
It looks like the only 2 ppl Panther has voted are Diego and Alchemist, of which Alchemist is confirmed town, Panther's votes have never been on scum.

TellTaleHeart / Diego votes over time:

Bella

,

Lizard

,

SilverJaws (Again)

,

Alchemist

, Mario
Probably Town

Sparrowbird/Mario votes over time:

Bella

,

Bella (Again)

, Self-Vote,

Silverjaws

,

Silverjaws (Again)

,

Performer

,

Performer (Again)

, PantherPunt,

Performer

,

ika

, -Not counting that shiro vote lol-,

ika (Again)

Most likely town.

By voting History

Most suspect to least suspect

Panther (Never voted Scum)
Diego/TTH (Voted 1 scum)
Sparrowbird/Mario (Voted both scum)

VCA coming shortly.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1318 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:20 pm

Disclaimer:

I just found this VCA strategy the other day, the algorithm is very known, im not entirely sure im doing this right however, specially because the results are the entirely opposite of my previous post

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Most likely scum to least likely:

4.25

MarioManiac4

0.96

Diego1487

0.6

PantherPunt

Conclusion after both:

Scum is 1 of Panther/Mario.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1319 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:08 pm

So basically after all that work i only figured that Diego's town orz

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1320 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:10 am

Fuck VCA.
Seriously.
If you're going to mislynch me because of that you're the one who needs to apologise aftergame, not Vedith.
Unless you're scum and Panther's town in which case ugh

Luna Fox · Post Post #1321 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:26 am

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Fuck VCA.

Why?

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:If you're going to mislynch me because of that you're the one who needs to apologise aftergame, not Vedith.

Have i mentioned i want to lynch you today? No, im just said you're 1 of 2 possible suspects, im narrowing down the suspect pool to find the last remaining scum.

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Unless you're scum and Panther's town in which case ugh

No, although i didn't know you were townreading me, guess you're good at faking it.

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1322 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:34 am

In post 1321, Luna Fox wrote:
In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Fuck VCA.

Why?

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:If you're going to mislynch me because of that you're the one who needs to apologise aftergame, not Vedith.

Have i mentioned i want to lynch you today? No, im just said you're 1 of 2 possible suspects, im narrowing down the suspect pool to find the last remaining scum.

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Unless you're scum and Panther's town in which case ugh

No, although i didn't know you were townreading me, guess you're good at faking it.

1. Because it's wrong
2. Yep, but you literally had me down as a 5 or some shit.
3. I'm scumreading Panther which makes you scrubs town!

Luna Fox · Post Post #1323 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:49 am

Ok apparently both extremes are suspect, i need to research more onto this, but that'd make Panther guilty by VCA and never voting scum, and you'd only be guilty by VCA, which is a point in your favor, will probably do a reads check on Panther, but im pretty sure last time i did that his reads were consistently wrong (which is usually a sign of scum).

Luna Fox · Post Post #1324 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:07 am

VOTE: Panther
I've made my decission.