Mini 1715 - Z - Game over!

[Nachomamma8]

2) If Scum kills Bella

If scum kills Bella. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is a Godfather or town. Nacho/Dave/Radja/Pistach are all power roles. Thor is lynch.

Lynch Thor, Protect Radja, Rolecop Radja, Investigate Gimlear, Jailkeep Garmr.

If scum kills Radja, Gummy/Gim/Garmr/Eventi are all confirmed town in 7p and thus auto-win.

If scum kills me, Radja/Gimlear/Garmr are all confirmed town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Dave/Pistach power roles. No lynch, Dave Jailkeeps Eventi, Pistach role cops Gummy. Scum can't stop 4 full clears from being generated so instant win.

If scum kills Dave, Radja/Gimlear/Garmr are all confirmed town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Pistach/Me Power roles. Radja investigates Gummy, Pistach Investigates Eventi, scum can't stop 4 clears.

IF scum kills Pistach, Radja/Gimlear/Garmr confirmed town. Eventi Godfather or town. Gummy strongman or town. Dave/me Power roles. Radja investigates Gummy, Pistach investigates Eventi, scum can't stop 4 clears.

Scum kills another clear, two more clears take their place, thus town wins.

[Nachomamma8]

3) Scum Kills Me
If scum kills me, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is a Godfather or town. Dave/Radja/Pistach are all power roles. Thor is lynch.
Dave jails Eventi, Pistach rolecops Garmr, Radja investigates Gummy.

If scum shoots a non-PR clear, then there will be 3 clears, 1 person who isn't fully cleared, and 3 power roles. Pistach and one of Radja/Dave will be able to generate a clear or a double lynch and thus auto-win.

If scum shoots a PR, Bella/Eventi/Gamr/Gummy will be confirmed and town wins.

[Nachomamma8]

4) Scum Kills Pistach

If scum kills Pistach, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Me/Dave/Radja are all Power roles. Gimlear/Thor are unconfirmed.
Gimlear is lynched, Radja investigates Thor, Dave jailkeeps Eventi, I protect Dave.

If Dave dies, then Bella/Garmr/Eventi/Thor are all confirmed town, town wins.

If Radja dies, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr is Godfather or town, Me/Thor/Dave are unconfirmed. Lynch Thor, I protect one of Bella/Eventi, Dave jails Garmr. If there's a kill in Bella/Eventi, then Garmr plus one of {Bella, Eventi} is confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, me/Dave are unconfirmed. Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

If I die, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Thor are Godfather or town, Radja/Dave are power roles. No lynch, Dave jails Garmr, Radja investigates Gummy. If there's a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Dave jails Garmr again, Radja investigates Dave. If there is a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill again, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Garmr will be confirmed not Godfather, Dave will be confirmed not Godfather, Radja is cop. Radja gets lynched. Dave jails Garmr again. If there's a kill, Dave is scum. If there isn't a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy still confirmed town and town wins.

If non Dave/Radja is killed, they can generate clears fast enough to create autowin.

[Nachomamma8]

I'll translate that later, leaving the house now.

[Nachomamma8]

oh whoops one more

5) If Scum Kills Radja

If scum kills Radja, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Me/Dave/Pistach are all Power roles. Thor is unconfirmed.

Lynch Thor, Jailkeep Garmr, Pistach rolecops Gummy, I protect Pistach.

If Dave dies, Bella/Gummy/Garmr all town with Gim as Goon or town, Eventi as Godfather or town, Me/Pistach as power. I protect Pistach, Pistach investigates Eventi, we lynch Gim; if Pistach gets an innocent, lynch me and Pistach. If Pistach gets a guilty, lynch Pistach and Eventi.

If Pistach dies, Bella/Gummy/Garmr/Gim/Eventi all town, insta-win.

If Bella dies, Gummy/Gamr both confirmed town, Gim as Goon or town, Eventi as Godfather or town, Dave/Pistach as Power roles, me as doc. Lynch me, Dave jails Gim, Pistach investigates Eventi, at least three innocents in 5p if scum kill. If they don't, Gummy/Garmr/Eventi as confirmed town, Dave/Pistach as power roles, Gim as Goon or town. Dave jails Gim again, Pistach investigates Dave, no lynch. Then same confirmed town, Dave as Mafia Jailkeeper or town, Gim as Goon or town, and Pistach. Lynch Pistach; if kill, Dave scum. If no kill, lynch Dave and Gim.

[Nachomamma8]

Here are the two scenarios where scum could win:
(if Dave is killed)

If Pistach dies, then Radja/Bella/Gimlear are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Eventi are Godfathers or town, I am unconfirmed. No lynch, I protect Radja both nights. If Radja dies either night, then 4 of (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella/Gummy) are confirmed as town and town wins. If scum kills other clears both nights, then 2 of (Radja/Gimlear/Gummy) will be confirmed as town with (Garmr/Eventi/me) as Godfather or town. Lynch two of them for win.

(if Pistach is killed)

Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

[Bellaphant]

So no lynch is the best play for today?

[Gimlear]

I'm hearing arguments for both no lynch and lynching Karmic. Honestly, I would rather lynch Karmic today.

So, to that end: VOTE: Karmic

[Nachomamma8]

Lynching Karmic today is by far the best plan but I'd love if you gave me just a little more time to finish drawing up the plan if he flips town.

[Nachomamma8]

Here are the two scenarios where scum could win:
(if Dave is killed)

If Pistach dies, then Radja/Bella/Gimlear are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Eventi are Godfathers or town, I am unconfirmed. No lynch, I protect Radja both nights. If Radja dies either night, then 4 of (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella/Gummy) are confirmed as town and town wins. If scum kills other clears both nights, then 2 of (Radja/Gimlear/Gummy) will be confirmed as town with (Garmr/Eventi/me) as Godfather or town. Lynch two of them for win.

(if Pistach is killed)

Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

For the record, Thor/Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr are interchangeable as people we could take to endgame. I think Thor is probably the least likely of the bunch (maybe he would bus his role blocker and make the first no kill as scum, but no way in hell the second happens), so I'd prefer to take him for these two possible endgames:

Kill 2 of {Thor, Eventi, Me} (all confirmed as Godfather or town)

OR

Kill 2 of {Thor, Dave, Me} (Thor has to be Strongman)

Either scenario is great for us, meaning that the only way that we lose to scum in this game is if Thor is a Godfather or a Strongman.
If Thor is a Godfather, then he has to kill Dave tonight; if I protect Dave, he loses.
If Thor is a Strongman, then he has to kill Pistach tonight without me protecting Pistach; if he strongman kills Pistach while I'm protecting her, game is confirmed to have a strongman immediately and thus he loses there too.

[Nachomamma8]

4) Scum Kills Pistach

If scum kills Pistach, Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is Godfather or town. Me/Dave/Radja are all Power roles. Gimlear/Thor are unconfirmed.
Gimlear is lynched, Radja investigates Thor, Dave jailkeeps Eventi, I protect Dave.

If Dave dies, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town. Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr is Godfather or town, Me/Thor/Radja are unconfirmed. Lynch Thor, I protect Radja, Radja investigates Gummy. If Radja dies, Bella/Eventi/Gummy are all confirmed town in 5 players alive. If a different clear dies, then 2 of {Bella/Eventi/Gummy} are confirmed town, Garmr is Godfather or Town, Radja and I are uncleared. Choose 2 of Me/Garmr/Radja for the win.

If Radja dies, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr is Godfather or town, Me/Thor/Dave are unconfirmed. Lynch Thor, I protect one of Bella/Eventi, Dave jails Garmr. If there's a kill in Bella/Eventi, then Garmr plus one of {Bella, Eventi} is confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, me/Dave are unconfirmed. Choose 2 of Gummy/Dave/me for win.

If I die, then Bella/Eventi are confirmed town, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Thor are Godfather or town, Radja/Dave are power roles. No lynch, Dave jails Garmr, Radja investigates Gummy. If there's a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Dave jails Garmr again, Radja investigates Dave. If there is a kill, 3 of Bella/Eventi/Gummy/Garmr will be confirmed town and town wins. If there's not a kill again, Bella/Eventi/Gummy will be confirmed town, Garmr will be confirmed not Godfather, Dave will be confirmed not Godfather, Radja is cop. Radja gets lynched. Dave jails Garmr again. If there's a kill, Dave is scum. If there isn't a kill, Bella/Eventi/Gummy still confirmed town and town wins.

If non Dave/Radja is killed, they can generate clears fast enough to create autowin.

In this scenario, if Pistach is killed, I could also WIFOM protecting Radja or Dave, with scum automatically losing if I made the correct choice.

[Nachomamma8]

1) If Scum Kills Dave

If scum kills Dave, Bella is still a perfect clear. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr is Godfather or town. Eventi is a Godfather or town. Thor/Nacho are both town unless no kill shenanigans. Radja/Pistach are town unless shenanigans.

Lynch Thor, Protect Radja, Rolecop Radja, Investigate Gimlear.

If Radja dies, then Bella is town. Gummy is Strongman or town. Gimlear is Goon or town. Garmr and Eventi are Godfather or town. Me/Pistach are unconfirmed. We lynch Gimlear, Pistach role cops Eventi, I protect Pistach. If Pistach dies, Bella//Garmr/Eventi are all confirmed town in 5p and thus town wins. If I die, Bella/Gummy are confirmed town, with Garmr (has to be Godfather), Gummy (has to be Strongman), and Pistach remaining. Pick 2 from that group.

If Pistach dies, then Radja/Bella/Gimlear are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, Garmr/Eventi are Godfathers or town, I am unconfirmed. No lynch, I protect Radja both nights. If Radja dies either night, then 4 of (Gim/Garmr/Eventi/Bella/Gummy) are confirmed as town and town wins. If scum kills other clears both nights, then 2 of (Radja/Gimlear/Gummy) will be confirmed as town with (Garmr/Eventi/me) as Godfather or town. Lynch two of them for win.

If Bella/Gimlear die, then {Radja, one of Bella/Gimlear, one of Garmr/Eventi} are perfect clears, Gummy is Strongman or town, one of Garmr/Eventi is Godfather or town, I am unconfirmed. No Lynch, I protect Radja, Radja investigates Gummy, Pistach investigates the other one of Garmr/Eventi. If Radja dies, auto-win. If Pistach and Radja live and a different clear dies, there are 3 confirmed town total and I can protect Pistach for another clear for guaranteed 3 in 5p, or I die and there are 4 confirmeds in 4p.

If non Pistach/Radja/Bella/Gimlear die, there will be 4 confirmeds in 7p which leads to auto-win.

Expanding this; if scum kill Dave, I could force scum to kill me and we could create a LyLo of two of {Garmr, Thor, Gummy, Gimlear} and Pistach, with a free investigative result on each member of the first group.

[Nachomamma8]

POSSIBLE LYLOs:

1) 2 confirmed town + (Radja Investigation/Eventi/me)
2) 2 confirmed town + (2 of {Radja Investigation, Dave Investigation, Pistach Investigation & Pistach)
3) 2 confirmed town + (Dave Investigation/Dave/me)
4) 2 confirmed town + (Radja Investigation/Radja/me)

We can choose a specific LyLo, or I can randomize my protections for the next 2 nights and we can decide where we want to put people. I think 75% chance of forcing scum to lose the game outright is pretty great plus feel decently about {Thor, Garmr} and really don't think either of them are playing the cracked out game this would require, so would propose the following LyLos:

1) 2 confirmed town + (Thor/Eventi/me) [last scum has to be Godfather]
2) 2 confirmed town + (Thor/Garmr/Pistach) [Thor has to be Godfather, Garmr has to be Strongman]
3) 2 confirmed town + (Garmr/Dave/Me) [Garmr has to be Strongman]
4) 2 confirmed town + (Thor/Radja/Me) [Thor has to be Godfather]

We lynch me automatically in 5p since I'm orchestrating this in the first place and couple manipulate protections to give me a favorable LyLo. If we got to the Thor/Garmr/Pistach LyLo, we should probably lynch Pistach first since the thing that would require her to be scum would be a bus gambit, which is pretty ridiculous but not totally ridiculous. This means possible 3p LyLos would be:

Thor/Eventi
Thor/Garmr
Garmr/Dave
Thor/Radja

In order for Thor to get to 3p LyLo, he needs to be a Godfather. He needs to guess which one of Dave/Pistach I am protecting tonight and he needs to kill people in a way that leads to a LyLo with him in it. There is a 37.50% chance of this happening.

In order for Garmr to get to 3p LyLo, he needs to be a Strongman. He needs to guess both of my protections properly when they happen, and he needs me to protect people in a way where he ends up in LyLo. There is a 25% of that happening.

In order for Eventi to get to 3p LyLo, he needs to be a Godfather. He needs me to allow him to make kills to allow him to show up in LyLo. There is a 25% chance of that happening.

In order for Dave/Radja to get to 3p LyLo, they need me to allow him to make the kills he needs to show up in LyLo. There is a 25% chance of that happening.

[pistachi0n]

I actually think Karmic is more likely to be a nightkill than scum after Day 1.

[Nachomamma8]

If this sounds reasonable to everyone, then plan for today should be.
Lynch Karmic.
Nacho protects one of {Pistach, Dave}
Radja investigates Thor
Dave jails Garmr
Pistach role cops one of {Gummy, Gimlear}, doesn't matter which.

[Nachomamma8]

I actually think Karmic is more likely to be a nightkill than scum after Day 1.

Why would scum nightkill Karmic over a power role?

[Nachomamma8]

Who do you think is the likeliest scum?

[eventi]

Sorry I haven't been able to post today, but I almost feel like I should just stand back

[Nachomamma8]

If you disagree very strongly with Garmr/Thor town and are worried they might be Godfather/Strongman, speak up.
Otherwise, we're probably okay.

[KarmicGuide]

I'm kind of against the jailing me plan - the tl;dr is it delays us by a day. Lynching me seems to make the most sense. It's kind of due diligence after jailing me and having a no-kill night.

I see four paths possible.

1.) We lynch Bella/Radj/Gim/Gummy and they flip scum. A fantastic result, and probably the end of the game, assuming this isn't too weird of a normal.

2.) We lynch Bella/Radj/Gim/Gummy and they flip town. I'm jailed. There's a nightkill. Clears me, which is nice, but then we've lynched a townie and lost a townie just to clear one name. That seems like a step backward from our current position.

3.) We lynch Bella/Radj/Gim/Gummy and they flip town. I'm jailed. There's NO nightkill. Woo! Sounds good, right? Kill Karmic the next night, and we win. ...Except I'm Karmic, I know I'm VT, so I know that lynching me tomorrow doesn't get us anywhere. All scum has to do tonight is submit a no-kill to frame me. Scum's only way to win right now is hoping we all slowly kill each other, so I don't see why they wouldn't just submit a no-kill if I'm jailed tonight. It's as good as a kill.

4.) We lynch me today, jail someone other than me. After I'm posthumously confirmed town, you guys will be able to go after remaining scum with as much information as possible.

While I'd rather not die, lynching me just seems like the best course of action.

And regarding the Garmr/Thor Godfather/Strongman thing, I don't know. It seems unlikely? Thor has felt pretty obv!town the whole game.

[Garmr]

I think I'm pretty obvious town and would perfer to be confirmed town by a role/normal cop combo. I don't want to be mislynched because nacho

[pistachi0n]

I actually think Karmic is more likely to be a nightkill than scum after Day 1.

Why would scum nightkill Karmic over a power role?

Maybe they figured one of the PRs would be protected and didn't want to gamble on which.

[Garmr]

That's pretty bad reasoning pista if nacho is really a doctor they could easily shot him yesterday and have free range over who to kill tonight. The only way I don't see them shooting nacho (if he is legit) is the the fact that David jailed them.

[Thor665]

Assuming Karmic lynch today (which is optimal, I guess I can get into that if it's really needed)

I would argue it is not, and it's for the simple reason that JKer checks for both scum types with one pop. So as long as the JKer is scum or town, we know his target is 100% clear if there is a kill.

If there is never a kill then we can rolecop/cop everyone both ways till we do know who is scum. = 100% town win.
If there are kills then, by definition, the only way to get to mylo will have the JKer there with nothing but people he has jailed and confirmed as town now that we have 2 living jailed subjects, this is inevitable. = 100% win if JKer is lying scum.
If there is non-JKer scum, then as long as you keep protecting the JKer he can cause two additional JKept subjects prior to his death. 4 JKept players prior to his death.
If we have our RC and cop double check each other's targets (copping the RC target and vice versa) and then double checking a single target on the night the JKer will die. That gives us too many confirmed town roles who can just lynch from the remainder = 100% town win.

With you protecting the Jailkeep.
Unless we hear something interesting about our rolecop's power, and then we can debate an alternate plan.

[Garmr]

thors idea is similar to my idea and I like it.