Mini 1723: Town of Helen Day 4

[Prolapsed Brain]

Prodge. Had to unexpectedly go out of town today; exhausted now. I'm at the top of page 7. Tomorrow is free form all distractions except mafia.

[Rob14]

Where'd he say he'd look through my meta? If he said it pages ago, I've forgotten it. He didn't say it in those posts, that's for sure. I'm an advocate of pointing out your own null tells as a proper use of self-meta, which is what I did here. I'll explain more post-game unless it becomes relevant, but this is something I've done before and been lynched for before. I know I've done it as town, and I'm pretty sure I've done it as scum as well. So it's a null tell. (A very meta discussion about meta ... hehe)

As for why that post is town: Town don't regularly admit that they haven't read through something yet, because it almost invariably follows that someone will push them for skimming or not scum-hunting. They're following my line of thought exactly about the SW/Titus slap-fight, and I know I'm coming from a town POV, so they get some minor points for that. More importantly, that line of thinking shows they're critically analyzing the two sides. They come away with two town reads. At this point, siding with one party is

very

low risk and potentially high reward (derail town, probably get a lynch out of it). With someone directly asking them for their thoughts on the slap-fight, no-one can later accuse them of purposefully trying to keep the distraction going. After all, someone specifically asked them to interject! There's no scum motivation to pass up that opportunity. She even actively tries to encourage space for all involved to do their thing.

[Rob14]

EBWOP: "read through" should be "sorted through"

[SilverWolf]

@SW, Why do you think the Ari + GL behaviors are similar?

Ari seems to be autodefending you this game which I find unusual for someone who is not supposed to know your alignment. He also sheeped your bad reasoning for voting me in the first place and said it was good. You may have been doing it on purpose to provoke a reaction and knew it was bad. I'm not sure. But he had no reason to vote for the SK stuff unless he's scum sheeping you and you are not, or possibly connected with you in some way and trying to help you. I don't know if that's optimal for two buddies but who knows. One thing I've learned is that scum will do just about anything on this site and to never say they wouldn't do something in order to win. You accused GL of defending me against you and not trying to sort me. That's exactly the way I felt about Ari only with him it was worse because the argument was bad from the beginning and most everyone can see that but him.

@SW, I wasn't trying to upset you, as I have shown, it does nothing for me. I don't believe I was instigating you and that I was being awkward in my attempts to have us move on.

I don't like a game state where people cannot scumhunt.

Can you just accept my apology for inadvertently riling you up? We can go back and forth apologizing to each other and accepting but at some point its spam.

Thoughts on GL's latest posting?

This is fine. We can move on. I think these last posts were necessary in order to do that, regardless of what we think of each other's alignment, so we can understand each other. So yeah I'm good with moving on.

GL's latest posts are fine with me because I pretty much agree with his line of thought on the argument between the two of us. He is rightfully not making out my emotions to be alignment indicative, and the things he is pointing out about our argument are fair points with a thought process I can understand. Like Rob said above, he's not taking sides here which scum could easily do to try to manipulate the situation to their advantage and maybe get a lynch out of it. That's scum motivation. Town motivation is a wait and see approach and a request to stop what we are doing so he can sort me.

[Titus]

@Rob, When I could get away with it as scum, I would pull the whole I would scumhunt later (particularly with my VCA) and later would be at an opportune time to be proscum.

Agreeing with you long after the fact is intellectual buddying possibly (which is why Ari's not my biggest townread).

I haven't seen any critical thinking but rather an avoidance of sorting anyone.

Siding with either side in a T v T (supposing SW is town) is exactly where GL would want to be as scum. I executed that to perfection in Gundam Seed with the leash versus lynch debate of the outed serial killer to where two uncced PRs got lynched. Here, he's town reading me but doubt casting my reasons and putting zero effort to sort.

Starting from SW as scum, then it's distancing.

[Rob14]

Hmm, you are right that an SW/GL team could potentially be a thing, but until I see anything that independently convinces me that one is scum, the relation means little to nothing.

[Titus]

What's the difference between PB, saying he'll scumhunt once the drama is gone versus GL saying he'll scumhunt when he feels like it?

[Rob14]

GL actually provided analysis. His conclusion was that he didn't have a strong read on SW, but he clearly looked at and analyzed the situation given his thoughts on your arguments. P_B has just said "lolz later" and then turtled when called out on it.

[Jingle]

Reminder: This is a game, so please treat it like one. This is a game about arguing, so tempers may be high, but please refrain from personal attacks. I'd rather not have to address anything like that this game.

[Titus]

@Rob13, I don't see analysis but at best a stick in the ass stating you suck. It's not analysis to call people stupid, summarize the thread and then say null which means no conclusion can be drawn. I could fake a null read on you with more content than he did. You just put a bunch of facts, then say null.

PB's condition hadn't been met. His condition was the end of the drama, it's ended now.

[Jingle]

VOTE COUNT 1.3

It is tempting, of course, to say that everything is related. We want to think that everything can be wrapped up with one nice little bow, that it can be understood. But not everything can. The case of Mr. Reynold's store and the mysterious fire, for example was most likely neighborhood boys, playing with things they ought not. So too must there have been those taking advantage of the chaos to hide their own nefarious deeds.

It is for that reason that most of the accounts of theft are unreasonable. It could be that whomever was responsible for the killing was also looting, but it is far more likely that someone was taking advantage of the opportunity the deaths provided, especially when we consider that those deaths reported immediately had very few possessions unaccounted for.

Titus (3): SilverWolf, Vedith, 20x100,
SilverWolf (1): Boonskiies,
Rob13 (1): pistachi0n,
Prolapsed Brain (1): Rob13,
GuiltyLion (1): Titus,
Aristophanes (1): GuiltyLion,
20x100 (1): Aristophanes
Flubbernugget (0):
Vedith (0):
pistachi0n (0):
Boonskiies (0):
Hieirama (0):
A Simple Plan (0):

Not Voting (4): Flubbernugget, Prolapsed Brain, Hieirama, A Simple Plan,

With 13 alive, it is 7 to Lynch or No Lynch.

Day 1 Ends in: (expired on 2015-10-21 22:00:00)

Prodding Flubbernugget.

[Rob14]

@Rob13, I don't see analysis but at best a stick in the ass stating you suck. It's not analysis to call people stupid, summarize the thread and then say null which means no conclusion can be drawn. I could fake a null read on you with more content than he did. You just put a bunch of facts, then say null.

PB's condition hadn't been met. His condition was the end of the drama, it's ended now.

Having a condition to start scum-hunting is scummy. That's a really obvious statement, too.

And yes, it is analysis to call an argument stupid. Would you rather someone fake a town/scum read when the read is actually null? I've found no correlation between null reads and town/scum. I'd say I actually give more null reads as town, personally.

[Titus]

@Rob13, A conclusion (and that's being generous) is not analysis. Summary is not analysis. The best analysis can generally be put into a CREAC or CRAC form if the sentences are layed out appropriately. You see the conclusion, the rule used to divine that conclusion, the application of the rule to the thread and then the conclusion again. That's because you can track the premises the entire time.

I hate null reads as town. You got all this info and the best you can come up with is null? I hate null reads. If a null read is present, then it should be resolved asap.

I don't find a condition to start scumhunting provided the condition is a reasonable one outside the player's immediate control. I will scumhunt in the future/when I feel like it is worse. With a specific condition, a player can be held accountable. PB is promising to be here tomorrow, and his condition has ended, thus giving rise to holding him accountable.

GL saying that he'll scumhunt later, well guess what it's ever later.

[Rob14]

Not everyone writes out their analysis in full, but in order to reach the conclusion, it must have happened. If you see a chicken, then you don't debate whether you ever saw an egg. It must have been there.

Forcing yourself to throw people into town and scum piles when there is a large middle ground makes it

harder

to find scum, not easier. Once you start looking at someone as scum or as town, you think about them differently. If you force a null read into one of those boxes, you'll find yourself facing confirmation bias that make your reads less useful. At least that's what I've found.

I have a response to the last two paragraphs, but I'd like GL to directly respond to that point first.

[Titus]

@Rob13, There's an old saying in Math class, "Show your work". It wasn't enough to reach the right answer, you had to show your work. Entering the work into a calculator doesn't prove the analysis is done at all. So no, just because someone reached a conclusion doesn't mean they analyzed at all.

Perhaps maybe this is where we differ on strengths on reads. You're my biggest townread ATM. I do agree if you see someone as town or scum you treat them differently. It's true of everyone. Scum can be caught because they treat their reads wrong. I disagree with that preventing sorting. If anything that's acknowledging our bias. Reads aren't permanent. Things can change them. There's also weak/lean town and gun to my head town.

[Titus]

SW vs Titus - Titus seems to manipulating/inferring a lot from SW's posts to provoke a reaction. Leaning town because it's extremely aggressive and succeeding in getting a response from SW. SW is overdefensive but frustration at being scumread for stupid reasons comes from either alignment, so still null on her for now.

I like where Vedith and pistachi0n are at. Rob13 is efforting a bit too much this early in the game but I will have to meta this weekend to see if that's normal for him.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Aristophanes. Standing on the sidelines and sheeping Titus, fueling the flames of an unproductive and petty argument. We already have one person getting under SilverWolf's skin and using it to paint her as scummy, we don't need two.

Oh here is where GL said he'd meta you.

[Rob14]

Yeah, my memory is way shorter than that for an off-hand comment. Thanks for digging it up, though.

The problem is that when you start thinking in terms of a "town" box and a "scum" box and sort everyone cleanly into the two, you start looking for more town tells in the town box and more scum tells in the scum box due to conf bias. This results in reads that are less susceptible to change, which is my main issue with forced sorting. But this is w/e, probably should be discussed in the post-game. I think we can chalk up our differences in the GL read to a disagreement over how town should be playing and we're unlikely to resolve that. I'm happy to debate further if you like, but I don't see anything to be gained from it at this time. At least not that would help us in this game.

FYI, my reads list (in no particular order within each category):

Town:
Titus
Vedith
Hieirama
GuiltyLion

Null:
SW (need to see more; right now the Titus/SW fight is decidedly null for me. Original reaction was scummy imo, but other players with experience with SW appear to support that it's in their meta regardless of alignment, so null tell I guess)
20x100 (this will essentially always be null; I'm shit at reading hydras because they're incredibly antithetical to the way mafia is meant to be played and every contradiction can be explained away as "but it was the other head!")
Boonskiies (either bad town or scum; indiscernible at the moment)
Aris (lot of effort, not so sure on substance)
Flubber (needs to stop lurking, null tell for this player though)
A Simple Plan (has made one prod dodge post, nothing else)

Scum:
P_B
pistachi0n

[Titus]

I am at

Strong town (off the lynch table for today)
Rob13
Vedith

Weak town
Ari (reason why this guy is not strong town is hidden buddy to see if Ari finds his ways there on his own)
Gun to my head must choose so town I guess
ASP

Gun to my head must choose so scum I guess
Flubber
Lean scum
Boonskiies, PB

Probabl scum or ika/mollie who I asked not to play with. Frustrating.
20/100

Scum
Guilty Lion
Pistachion

Setting aside for a reset SW

[Titus]

Good night Rob. Catch you tomorrowish.

[Rob14]

Mhm. By the way, I'm counting "setting aside for a reset" as a null. I win!

[Titus]

No I am scumreading SW but I am trying to set aside my biases as I know that repeating something can make people perceive it to be true. Do not confuse setting aside my scumread as a nullread.

[Rob14]

Good night Rob. Catch you tomorrowish.

At the risk of turning you off to being pleasant, could you find an example of you similarly exchanging pleasantries in one of your town games? As I was flossing, it occurred to me that this is another example of potential buddying concerns. Almost went right over my head, too.

[Titus]

Spoiler: Posts

Mafia may have daytalk without an Encryptor as long as it is announced in the game's rules beforehand.

I don't see anything about it on Page 1 of our game so if they have day chat then they would need an encryptor.

I still want to know if, without day chat, the whole team gets to see the results of a Mafia Role Cop's night action or if they have to wait until the following night.

Bolding this so the mod sees. Please confirm in the next post.

Oh yeah, it's day4, you'll have that in a day or two IRL. No fast lynching this time so I can do it.

Should have done it yesterday. Will be around modding in case anyone but Fitz or Hopkirk votes.

I am out most of the day. There's a slight chance I may be VLA next week due to work.

People used to say it was a scumtell if I was nice. Lol. I generally like people to know when I am here versus not because I read best by read time reactions.

[Titus]

Now my husband's finally here. Logging off....

[20x100]

I'm here to moer seriously talk.

Hadhsfam; nskab :jsjskagag

We should e lynching titus