Mini 1715 - Z - Game over!

[Thor665]

Okay, so, officially Bella is confirmed town unless he's a GF *AND* Pistach is his scumbuddy.
So Bella is confirmed.

I advocate the following plan.

Jail: Karmic
Rolecop: Eventi
Cop: One of the G's (Gummy, Garmr, Gimlear - or Thor if you feel paranoid about me, but with Bella as assured town that means either he or I was the kill target Night 1, so I suggest I am 99% confirmed town, as is Nacho)
Doc: Dave

That way, if there is a kill - Karmic is confirmed town.
If there is no kill - Eventi will be confirmed town.
We can then move on from there untill we're either functionally certain that Karmic is the last scum or until scum manage to start killing, which will start clearing people also.

Besides Nacho's strongman fears does anyone see a hole in this plan?

Also, I have to admit, with a claimed rolecop that claims to detect GFs and a claimed Cop, I am relatively certain we're looking at a scum GF for the final scum slot. Yeah?

[Thor665]

Roleblocker, Rolecop, Godfather v. Cop, Rolecop, Jailkeeper, Doc, 6 VTs.

Still looks a touch townsided to my mind, though I admit that I think Doc is an often overestimated role.
That said, a rolecop/block combo is pretty potent for the scum, though the GF is on the weak side with 2 town roles able to 'detect' him, albeit one only in late game (or in a steamrolled game, like this one).

I think I'm leaning towards Karmic being the last scum (Garmr will do a backflip, I presume) or one of the PRs lying to us - but we have them on a pretty rough lockdown at the moment.
Yeah, I'm thinking my plan works as stated.

[Thor665]

@Garmr - for the record, I am almost hoping for Radja

[Thor665]

Or was it Pistach that I was pushing on? I forget - whichever of them it was, then I'll do the backflip.

[Nachomamma8]

I don't care what we do.

Thor is correct we can no lynch. It's an autowin.
We can also lynch and it's an autowin.
We can have the investigators target the same person and it's *pretty much* an autowin.
We can have the investigators target different people and it's an autowin.

The only reason I have to advocate my plan over others is I spent a lot of time on it, it's cool, and I don't want to no lynch because that seems like it's unnecessarily delaying the game, but there's no optimal play or whatever advantage, was just being stubborn because I did spend a lot of time formulating it and running through different scenarios and then was sad when it was ignored.

[Nachomamma8]

But it's the journey that matters, not the destination.
And the journey was a joy.

[Thor665]

We can have the investigators target the same person and it's *pretty much* an autowin.
We can have the investigators target different people and it's an autowin.

I fail to follow here - the cop and rolecop *should* be double checking each others' work, no?
I will agree that I don't see a need for the JKer to triple check anyone, he's a separate clearing machine.

[Thor665]

I don't want to no lynch because that seems like it's unnecessarily delaying the game,

I'd advocate lynch if Karmic claimed scum and didn't feel like waiting a few days for the inevitable lynch

[Gimlear]

I am ok with either plan really. I admit I just like the idea of lynching Karmic.

Nothing is stopping us from lynching Karmic tonight then no lynching until we find the last scum if Karmic flips VT. Or even no lynching today and lynching Karmic (or whoever) tomorrow if need be.

Also, can people vote for a no lynch or would we just have to wait out the timer?

[Garmr]

I am ok with either plan really. I admit I just like the idea of lynching Karmic.

Nothing is stopping us from lynching Karmic tonight then no lynching until we find the last scum if Karmic flips VT. Or even no lynching today and lynching Karmic (or whoever) tomorrow if need be.

Also, can people vote for a no lynch or would we just have to wait out the timer?

difference with that is we get a extra confirmed town for the no lynch.

[Garmr]

Roleblocker, Rolecop, Godfather v. Cop, Rolecop, Jailkeeper, Doc, 6 VTs.

Still looks a touch townsided to my mind, though I admit that I think Doc is an often overestimated role.
That said, a rolecop/block combo is pretty potent for the scum, though the GF is on the weak side with 2 town roles able to 'detect' him, albeit one only in late game (or in a steamrolled game, like this one).

I think I'm leaning towards Karmic being the last scum (Garmr will do a backflip, I presume) or one of the PRs lying to us - but we have them on a pretty rough lockdown at the moment.
Yeah, I'm thinking my plan works as stated.

This is pretty short sighted thor.


If a power role is lying at this point I would assume nacho

VOTE: Vote: Bellaphant

I am going to do a little looking around elsewhere, but my reread yesterday put the two likeliest scum at Bellaphant and eventi.

I also think that if a: town cop/tracker/jailkeeper/roleblocker exists then they should claim immediately; my intuition tells me the reason a mafia roleblocker is in the game an overwhelmingly majority of the time is to break up investigation/protection circles bringing investigative out so they can be protected is probably the optimal move here.

I find it interesting how nacho mentions town/cop/tracker/roleblocker and not doctor Even through he does claim to be a doctor. I would think a town doctor would mention that in his search because he would want to avoid being pinned as the the town doctor. To further push the point he knew bella was targeted he votes bella in this post as well. He mention a town jailkeeper/roleblocker but why would he mention that if he is town doctor. Sure the town cop/tracker I could understand but a jailkeeper/roleblocker why would he want to know why they were in the game the answer is simple.

Scum targeted bella to die and not thor. Thor was pretty obvious town at that point in the game so if town had watchers/trackers they would probably go watch him and if town had a doctor they would most likely protect thor. Thus the pretty much out of the box bella vote would make sense for someone trying to find who the jailkeeper by peoples reactions because lets admit it who would doc bella over thor. I nearly forgot the fact he didn't say watcher because he was probably only concerned about the people on him to see if his fake claim would stand up.

Also add in the fact that nacho claimed doctor last out of all the roles because it was the safest time to fake claim it. Not only will this stop him being a jailkeeper target but it would make most town hesitant to lynch him as well. The claim he protected thor night 1 wouldn't be a bad idea as town but that's only assuming scum want to take a risk of being caught by a power role.


The no kill can be explained by nacho being scum as well. Since the talk of godfathers and stuff was about he was probally gambling on us lynching the jailed today as he that the point he was pushing all day by pushing the fact we should lynch who we jail this would get him off a lynch today. Him starting to talk about strong arms ect is probably him trying to plant the seeds for a davesaz kill tonight.

Nacho is the dodgiest of the power roles.

Still karmic is just as likely scum but we can confirm that tonight.

[Thor665]

This is pretty short sighted thor.

Okay.

I disagree.

I find it interesting how nacho mentions town/cop/tracker/roleblocker and not doctor Even through he does claim to be a doctor.

That makes no sense, he was asking for roles that were investigative in nature, A doc, explicitly, is not.

I nearly forgot the fact he didn't say watcher because he was probably only concerned about the people on him to see if his fake claim would stand up.

That is a reasonable concern and at least makes sense.

The no kill can be explained by nacho being scum as well. Since the talk of godfathers and stuff was about he was probally gambling on us lynching the jailed today as he that the point he was pushing all day by pushing the fact we should lynch who we jail this would get him off a lynch today. Him starting to talk about strong arms ect is probably him trying to plant the seeds for a davesaz kill tonight.

I had that thought myself earlier today, and this makes sense as a potential Nacho=scum theory to me.

Nacho is the dodgiest of the power roles.

Not sure I agree with this though.

I don't see particular justification for why scum would shoot Bella though - have you considered that?

[Thor665]

I mean, basically your idea appears to be 'scum shot Bella because Thor waas too obv. town and would draw protection'.
Which, okay, sure, maybe I was too obv. town and would draw protection - I can buy into that because I'm full of myself.

But why pick Bella as the kill?
I mean, there were an odd nine other town slots to choose to kill.
Would Bella have been near the top of your list?

[Garmr]

I mean, basically your idea appears to be 'scum shot Bella because Thor waas too obv. town and would draw protection'.
Which, okay, sure, maybe I was too obv. town and would draw protection - I can buy into that because I'm full of myself.

But why pick Bella as the kill?
I mean, there were an odd nine other town slots to choose to kill.
Would Bella have been near the top of your list?

Well if nacho is scum

-Bella was suspicious of nacho day 1. Through this is interchangeable with karmic as well.
-when she gave town reads they were right (well I'm assuming your like 99 percent confirmed town)
-It was a safe kill if you assume that jailor wasn't in the game.
-she was kinda reserved day 1 so that could of looked like a power role to scum who knew she was town.
-Because bellas avi is a penguin and the remaining mafia member is a hungry seal in real life.

There's plenty of reasons.

[Thor665]

Bella was not suspicious of Nacho as I recall - if that happened I kind of feel it had to be for a short period and near day start, so that seems unlikely reasoning.
Do you ever kill players off their town reads being right Day 1? I don't - I suspect Nacho wouldn't.
I agree, she was unlikely to draw protection.
Maybe so - of course they had a rolecop to fish for that stuff as well - why not shoot Dave and cop Bella, for instance?

I can somewhat see your fear and theory - it doesn't feel supported enough to worry about at this stage. How about we agree to lynch him if Dave dies before Nacho? I would generically support that idea at this stage - is that good enough for you?

[Radja]

VOTE: no lynch

I guess?

[Bellaphant]

I think Garmr is right - Thor being town would have drawn some sort of watch/protection. Although I haven't set the town alight this game at all, I had pretty good town-reads. My ping on Nacho was hella weak, though. I dunno if me being a kill means a less experienced scumteam/someone who's played with me when I've had a better game. Hmmm..

[Nachomamma8]

No killing when no killing would be a losing move is pretty stupid.

[KarmicGuide]

anything is fine with me.
As long as we can reach a decision.

This is pretty much where I am as well. We've got this in the bag, so jailing me, lynching me, either work fine.

[Garmr]

Bella was not suspicious of Nacho as I recall - if that happened I kind of feel it had to be for a short period and near day start, so that seems unlikely reasoning.
Do you ever kill players off their town reads being right Day 1? I don't - I suspect Nacho wouldn't.
I agree, she was unlikely to draw protection.
Maybe so - of course they had a rolecop to fish for that stuff as well - why not shoot Dave and cop Bella, for instance?

I can somewhat see your fear and theory - it doesn't feel supported enough to worry about at this stage. How about we agree to lynch him if Dave dies before Nacho? I would generically support that idea at this stage - is that good enough for you?

Deal

[zakk]

EXPERIMENT NOTES 3.3

SUBJECTS ASSERTING AGGRESSIVE ACTIVITY:

KarmicGuide [3] - Gimlear, eventi, pistachi0n
No Lynch [1] - Radja
Bellaphant [0]
davesaz [0]
eventi [0]
Garmr [0]
Gimlear [0]
gummmybear [0]
Nachomamma8 [0]
pistachi0n [0]
Radja [0]
Thor665 [0]

SUBJECTS DISPLAYING PASSIVE TENDENCY:

Bellaphant, davesaz, Garmr, gummmybear, KarmicGuide, Nachomamma8, Radja (lol), Thor665

[Garmr]

Bella was not suspicious of Nacho as I recall - if that happened I kind of feel it had to be for a short period and near day start, so that seems unlikely reasoning.
Do you ever kill players off their town reads being right Day 1? I don't - I suspect Nacho wouldn't.
I agree, she was unlikely to draw protection.
Maybe so - of course they had a rolecop to fish for that stuff as well - why not shoot Dave and cop Bella, for instance?

I can somewhat see your fear and theory - it doesn't feel supported enough to worry about at this stage. How about we agree to lynch him if Dave dies before Nacho? I would generically support that idea at this stage - is that good enough for you?

Only after shooting bella would they figure out there was a jailkeeper or roleblocker. So shooting bella because there was a potential role is viable.

[pistachi0n]

What are the arguments for no lynch?

[Garmr]

if scum is playing a game then it forces them to play their hand and stops us mislynching today, it confirms karmic as town if a kill goes through or until karmic is confirmed as scum, If they don/t kill and karmic is town then we get free investigations.

[davesaz]

In evaluating Bella as a plausible / implausible kill target for N1, shouldn't her reads on the known scum be taken into account, and not just the unknown ones? And ditto for KarmicGuide.
It also feels like we're relying too much on PR results and ignoring the possibility that VCA can help here.