Mini 1717 Alfred Hitchcock UPick [GAME OVER]

[Antihero]

There is a distinct difference between "suspense" and "surprise," and yet many pictures continually confuse the two. I'll explain what I mean.

We are now having a very innocent little chat. Let's suppose that there is a bomb underneath this table between us. Nothing happens, and then all of a sudden, "Boom!" There is an explosion. The public is surprised, but prior to this surprise, it has seen an absolutely ordinary scene, of no special consequence. Now, let us take a suspense situation. The bomb is underneath the table and the public knows it, probably because they have seen the anarchist place it there. The public is aware the bomb is going to explode at one o'clock and there is a clock in the decor. The public can see that it is a quarter to one. In these conditions, the same innocuous conversation becomes fascinating because the public is participating in the scene. The audience is longing to warn the characters on the screen: "You shouldn't be talking about such trivial matters. There is a bomb beneath you and it is about to explode!"

In the first case we have given the public fifteen seconds of surprise at the moment of the explosion. In the second we have provided them with fifteen minutes of suspense. The conclusion is that whenever possible the public must be informed. Except when the surprise is a twist, that is, when the unexpected ending is, in itself, the highlight of the story

Vote Count 1.15

Cataphant - 1 (Ankamius)
Hecatia Lapislazuli - 2 (massive, pistachi0n)
Lying Cat - 4 (Thor665, Wingback, Nachomamma8, Hecatia Lapislazuli)
pistachi0n - 4 (Concrete Angels, Cataphant, Davsto, Vedith)
Thor665 - 1 (Lying Cat)

Not Voting: farside22

7 to lynch
Deadline: (expired on 2015-10-18 00:40:36)

[Vedith]

Oh... Then why are we not lynching then?!
I assumed FN or something.

UNVOTE: Pist
VOTE: LC

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Pistachi0n

Sorry, Wingback, I will not support a Lying Cat lynch today.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Switch to Lying Cat please. They're scum.

Why lynch LC if they can prove to be town over night?
If LC is scum, it doesn't make me think any less of my scum reads and hitting another scum today can give us 2 tomorrow.

They never said they can prove to be town overnight.

They said that if the scum that isn't a ninja gets lynched, that will confirm them as town. Except they could be that scum. They need a specific scum player to flip. Read their actual posts carefully.

ETL, I'm not ignoring your posts. Will get to it in a bit.

wat that's not what he said. he said he would target me and I'd be able to confirm it. at least that was my understanding of it.

[Wingback]

wat that's not what he said. he said he would target me and I'd be able to confirm it. at least that was my understanding of it.

His role, not his alignment.

Role confirmation =/= alignment confirmation. You are experienced enough to know that.

[Wingback]

VOTE: Pistachi0n

Sorry, Wingback, I will not support a Lying Cat lynch today.

You haven't said anything about either Lying Cat or Pistachi0n recently. What tipped the scales?

[Ankamius]

Just based on setup stuff, we should lynch Lying Cat earliest on day three. If we can't conclusively prove that he's town by that time, then I will fully support lynching Lying Cat.

[Wingback]

Just based on setup stuff, we should lynch Lying Cat earliest on day three. If we can't conclusively prove that he's town by that time, then I will fully support lynching Lying Cat.

Why are you being so charitable with them?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Pistachi0n

Sorry, Wingback, I will not support a Lying Cat lynch today.

You haven't said anything about either Lying Cat or Pistachi0n recently. What tipped the scales?

The type of role he's claiming is consistent with every other role that has been claimed so far. On top of this, I find it really hard to believe that scum have two roles solely to counter one town role (multiple is technically possible, but not likely), then another one that doesn't counter anything.

Worst case scenario, he's lying, but by the time he reaches day three, he has to have confirmed himself to his two scumpartners or has to jump through hoops to keep the deception going.

I don't see a reason not to leash him right now.

[Wingback]

Lying Cat haven't locked themselves into any sort of role. They made a vague claim that they are confirmable. I don't understand why you just decided to give them two more days to do that without asking for any further information and are willing to lynch another player that you've said nothing about for many pages. It is not even that you are lynching a different scumread, you are lynching someone you literally have given no opinions on over someone else who you've also given no opinions on because they said they could confirm themselves under a very specific set of circumstances?

I don't follow where you got this D3 idea from. They never said they can confirm themselves by D3. They said that if one SPECIFIC scum role flips, they would be able to confirm themselves. That doesn't do anything for me since that role may never flip and if we get to LYLO, Lying Cat can still plausibly argue that because that role hasn't flipped yet, they can't confirm themselves as town. That won't make them confirmed scum at this point so I see this claim as completely safe and without consequences.

He could "confirm" his role whatever it is by visiting people other than his two partners. Role confirmation isn't confirmation of his alignment and I thought you were experienced enough to know this as well.

[Wingback]

Fair point.

pistachi0n's good too, honestly, both have a good chance of flipping scum. Let's go and hope that nothing horrible happens.

VOTE: pistachi0n
PEdit jesus, we have ten hours, we need to decide on a goddamn lynch for today.

Davsto.

Get back on Lying Cat.

[Wingback]

Reasons:

1. The bulk of his posting was designed to irritate Thor to apparently get him to "lash out" which Jingle claims will help him read Thor. They've had a prolonged wall war and so far... nothing. They never tried to scumhunt or read anyone besides Thor beyond a single post early in the game. They've spent all their apparently limited time nitpicking Thor's walls.
   
2. Jingle's read on me based on a single post when I was lurking is skin-deep and ignores the bulk of the content I've posted since then.
   
3. None of their reads in Post 985 are strong or developed. If they were town, they'd be working on scumhunting and refining those reads instead of arguing pointlessly with Thor. Their only strong reads are based on the claims which is a total cop out.
   
4. They's made no attempt to read ETL who they claim is a priority read for them. They've had her as leaning town and that's about it. If they were town, they'd be using some of their time questioning and working with ETL instead of the wall war with Thor.
   
5. Their "confirmable role" claim is not a lock in. They can go all the way to LYLO and still have a good reason why they aren't confirmed town. Their vagueness is to try and misdirect the town into believing they are confirmable.

[Ankamius]

Lying Cat haven't locked themselves into any sort of role. They made a vague claim that they are confirmable. I don't understand why you just decided to give them two more days to do that without asking for any further information and are willing to lynch another player that you've said nothing about for many pages. It is not even that you are lynching a different scumread, you are lynching someone you literally have given no opinions on over someone else who you've also given no opinions on because they said they could confirm themselves under a very specific set of circumstances?

The wagons I have a choice on are two nullreads (Lying Cat/pistachi0n) and a townread (Hecatia Lapislazuli). I'm obviously not going to jumpstart the Hecatia wagon, so all I have to go on is someone I have no read on whatsoever and someone who I have no read on whatsoever, but I can pseudo-read by analyzing the setup.

The information he has given us so far gives two possibilities in my head. 1) He's town; his role is pitiful and the fact that he's a fruit vendor on top of it is its saving grace (or he's a fruit vendor with a drawback that's anti-town to reveal). 2) He's scum; he has a strong role with the drawback that his target knows Lying Cat targeted them, so he still has to be able to make his info look town.

It's entirely possible to be able to judge which of the two is the case once we have more information on the board.

I don't follow where you got this D3 idea from. They never said they can confirm themselves by D3. They said that if one SPECIFIC scum role flips, they would be able to confirm themselves. That doesn't do anything for me since that role may never flip and if we get to LYLO, Lying Cat can still plausibly argue that because that role hasn't flipped yet, they can't confirm themselves as town. That won't make them confirmed scum at this point so I see this claim as completely safe and without consequences.

I specifically gave him two night phases so that he can confirm what he's saying he can confirm. It gives us more time to get scumflips, yet isn't too late to still lynch him just in case. He can be entirely leashed to only target who town wants him to target.

He could "confirm" his role whatever it is by visiting people other than his two partners. Role confirmation isn't confirmation of his alignment and I thought you were experienced enough to know this as well.

Where did you get the impression that I thought confirming his role would confirm his alignment?

[hiplop]

I mean it, if Lying cat isn't 100% confirmable tomorrow, we lynch his ass.

[Ankamius]

I mean it, if Lying cat isn't 100% confirmable tomorrow, we lynch his ass.

X

That depends way too much on what happens tonight to tell for sure.

[Concrete Angels]

Thanks Wingback. Here are my thoughts on this:

Reasons:

1. The bulk of his posting was designed to irritate Thor to apparently get him to "lash out" which Jingle claims will help him read Thor. They've had a prolonged wall war and so far... nothing. They never tried to scumhunt or read anyone besides Thor beyond a single post early in the game. They've spent all their apparently limited time nitpicking Thor's walls.

What do you mean when you say, "So far, nothing"? Do you mean that LC hasn't given a conclusion about their conversation?

What makes you say they haven't scum hunted? What is your idea of scumhunting and why does LC not fit that idea? How do you know they haven't tried to read anyone besides Thor?

Jingle's read on me based on a single post when I was lurking is skin-deep and ignores the bulk of the content I've posted since then.

This point specifically nullifies what you said in the previous point - they have given a read on you. Whether you think it is valid or not is irrelevant. Have you asked LC to quantify or expand on the read or is this just what you think the read is based on?

None of their reads in Post 985 are strong or developed. If they were town, they'd be working on scumhunting and refining those reads instead of arguing pointlessly with Thor. Their only strong reads are based on the claims which is a total cop out.

I think it is problematic to say "If they were town, they'd be doing X" when you may not know exactly how they obtain reads, what their methods are, or why they are doing what they are doing. I don't think that basing a read on claims is a cop out at all, considering the fact that you are doing the same thing, essentially. Claims give information, whether true or not, and allow a person to judge the likelihood of the claim's existence and truthfulness. I also think you are assigning weight to another player's reads, which isn't really your place to do.

Additionally, I haven't spent a lot of time refining my reads for the last week. It's D1. I'm swamped with work and school. Busy with my social life and other crap. I'm not always going to be invested when I post. I'm not always going to be working hard on a forum game. If I were even more distracted, it's likely my posts would look just like LC's.

They's made no attempt to read ETL who they claim is a priority read for them. They've had her as leaning town and that's about it. If they were town, they'd be using some of their time questioning and working with ETL instead of the wall war with Thor.

Not true. Go read any other game we've played together. I am a priority, yes, because there's paranoia there. But clearing that paranoia isn't going to happen on D1. You are mistaking time priority with value priority. Either way, why is this a scum point? You are making judgements on how they should be playing if they were town - that's a meta argument when you have no meta with them.

Their "confirmable role" claim is not a lock in. They can go all the way to LYLO and still have a good reason why they aren't confirmed town. Their vagueness is to try and misdirect the town into believing they are confirmable.[/list]

Except no one is going to be ok with that. He asked for a single day to be able to provide information. If he doesn't, we lynch him tomorrow. Simple as that.

Not to mention, they and Dav and Hecatia are not the only PRs in the game, as you know. Do you honestly think no one else will be curious about them at some point?

My problem with your list, mostly, is that it is based on predetermined criteria that you've come up with based on how you think they should or should not be playing if they were town, when you don't know how they would play if they were town. You haven't shown any concrete "agendas" or explained what scum benefits those agendas would have.

I want to know why the way they've played thus far is helpful to scum and harmful to town.

[Thor665]

This page reads like insanity to me.

[Wingback]

@ ETL

,

1. It is apparent that they aren't scumhunting because if they were, they would have asked questions, voted people, accused them and so on to refine their weak reads on all the players.
2. I know they haven't tried to read anyone besides Thor because I have read their ISO. I suggest you do the same.
3. I think their read on me is fake. That's not irrelevant. That's how scumhunting works. If you think someone is faking their reads, you deduce that they are scum. How is the validity of their reads "irrelevant?"
4. Where have they developed reads? What reads have they developed? Telling me "you don't know they haven't developed reads" is rubbish because you are assuming that they have reads and asking me to prove they don't instead of starting from a blank slate and reading their ISO to see what reads they've developed.
5. Telling me I have "pre-determined criteria" is like asking me not to scumhunt. Based on our experiences, we develop ideas of what town behavior looks like and what scum behavior looks like. Arguing that someone doesn't look like town is basically how mafia is played.

[Wingback]

Here are some of the reasons

Lying Cat's obsession with Thor to the detriment of everything else

helped advance the scum wincon:

1. It gives them free content to argue about. Thor argues every point directed at him so the back and forth looks like they are generating content. Lying Cat knows that no one will bother to read the exact details of the argument or understand them so anything goes.
   1. This advances the scum wincon by creating apathy among the town making them less likely to want to catch up and contribute to the discussion.
   2. Town are unlikely to do this because they have other priorities like reading the rest of the playerlist.
   
   
2. Developing and refining reads on a large portion of the playerlist and changing and adapting them as the game goes on is challenging for scum to do because not only do they want to avoid stepping on too many people's toes, they need to make their changes appear natural. Getting into a dumb tunnel with Thor gives them an excuse to avoid these challenges.
   1. This advances the scum wincon because by not stepping on people's toes, they can be seen in a more favorable light, allowing them to better manipulate town players.
   2. Town are unlikely to do this because town's wincon is to find scum and solely focusing on a single player may let scum slide by not to mention that if Thor is town, all of the scum are safe from a hypothetical town-Lying Cat's scrutiny which makes a town loss more likely.
   
   
3. They never voted a single other player in the game for a period of nearly twenty days insulting them from VCA and accountability for pushing wagons. If they vote, they need to back that up. They need to push players, keep up the charade of scumhunting and so on. But they dodge it altogether.
   1. This advances the scum wincon by making it more difficult to scumhunt in later days and leaves a lot of ambiguity among the town.
   2. Town are unlikely to avoid voting other players because votes create pressure and allow a basis to interact and read other players which is paramount to helping town win chances.
   
   
4. They know that Thor is unlikely to get lynched purely on the basis of their argument. So, after they switch to a lynch at deadline, they can simply resume tunneling Thor the following day claiming that they haven't yet gotten the reaction they wanted.
   1. This advances the scum wincon by allowing Lying Cat to keep their hands clean and their credibility intact because they weren't the ones who pushed hardest for a mislynch.
   2. Town are unlikely to do this because town try to lynch who they believe is scum and want to have a say in the lynches so that their scum suspects are lynched.
   
   
5. Attempting to make Thor play emotionally means that Thor's arguments will be easier to discredit and taken less seriously by the rest of the town which also helps Lying Cat.
   1. This advances the scum wincon because town need credibility in order to push a lynch. If a town player is being dismissed as emotional and lacks credibility, they will lack the capability to convince the other town to lynch their scumreads.
   2. Town are unlikely to undermine the credibility of other players because their focus is not primarily on their survival but on finding and lynching scum.

[Wingback]

That should read "insulating" them from VCA, not insulting.

[Thor665]

Look - I actually already disproved LC's claim that he could be "confirmed".
I literally disproved it.

The only question now is whether you think he would make that mistake as town or be trying to pass through a load of hogwash as scum.
To my mind, that's the only debate point about the clearing (since apparently everyone is buying into the no roleblock/delay/CA is scum issues with the plan) as I'm apparently the only one seeing the otherwise massive holes in the plan even if everything worked the way LC implied, which it pretty clearly doesn't.

CA's defense towards Wingback is reading really nitpicky while not picking nits that are actually disproving some of her issues, which is weird and not happy making.
That said, i am actually okay with the Pistach push, even though I don't understand the case there, but I'm supportive of the LC push.

@Ank - why do you think LC is worth letting live for 2-3 day phases to see if they have an ability? Seriously, like, what's even the point of that? That doesn't seem like a reason to not lynch them today - could you explain why you don't want to lynch them today but would be okay with potentially lynching them later? Because it *sounds* like you're saying that you don't really suspect them, but kinda suspect them - except your phrasing it within the claim buisness, which theoretically should have nothing to do with it as they haven't claimed gak all.

[Thor665]

I guess you could also be debating that, by definition, a ninja and backup ninja modifier for NKs precludes any other role option...but I'd be fine if someone wanted to argue that also. But that's the only other valid issue I can see.

I don't get the point of giving them an extra phase though - why should we? Whoop-de-doo, maybe they have a power. That will show nothing unless the power is innocent child or a straight cop. Even another killing role wouldn't really 'clear' them, so...?

[Cataphant]

VOTE: LC

I don't like the opposition to her dying tomorrow. Sounds like whiteknighting from ank. Kill that cat

[Concrete Angels]

@ ETL

,

1. It is apparent that they aren't scumhunting because if they were, they would have asked questions, voted people, accused them and so on to refine their weak reads on all the players.

According to you. Again, you've created an idea about how a person should play. What will you say to me if they flip town?

2. I know they haven't tried to read anyone besides Thor because I have read their ISO. I suggest you do the same.

I've been keeping up. They have focused on Thor a lot, but again, you don't know if Jingle just hasn't been vocal about reads that he does have, or if he actually has no reads.

3. I think their read on me is fake. That's not irrelevant. That's how scumhunting works. If you think someone is faking their reads, you deduce that they are scum. How is the validity of their reads "irrelevant?"

No. That is not what I said at all. What I said was, whether you agree with the read or not is irrelevant. Not whether you think it is fake or not.

4. Where have they developed reads? What reads have they developed? Telling me "you don't know they haven't developed reads" is rubbish because you are assuming that they have reads and asking me to prove they don't instead of starting from a blank slate and reading their ISO to see what reads they've developed.

And

you

are

assuming

they have no reads. I didn't say they had reads. I asked you to support your argument. I'm just pointing that out.

5. Telling me I have "pre-determined criteria" is like asking me not to scumhunt. Based on our experiences, we develop ideas of what town behavior looks like and what scum behavior looks like. Arguing that someone doesn't look like town is basically how mafia is played.

There's a difference between saying "Here is what X did. This is how that action affects town. This is how that action affects scum. This is why I think it is [town/scum]-motivated," and saying "I think Town would do ABC, and X did not do ABC, so therefore they are not town."

p-edit: *sigh*

Cataphant more and more scum here.

[Davsto]

Is this the part where I state intent to hammer?