Mini 1723: Town of Helen Day 4

Titus · Post Post #1025 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 4:54 pm

In post 1021, Prolapsed Brain wrote:Titus: are you a Miller?

You should never ask me this question. If I don't claim post 1. Either I am not a miller, or by bastardness, I am unaware I am a miller.

Aristophanes · Post Post #1026 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 4:55 pm

In post 1020, Titus wrote:
In post 1017, Flubbernugget wrote:Do you know exactly how many millers there are or something

I haven't said word one about millers.

There's no way town has 2 investigators.

Okay, why not?

Titus · Post Post #1027 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 4:58 pm

In post 1026, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 1020, Titus wrote:
In post 1017, Flubbernugget wrote:Do you know exactly how many millers there are or something

I haven't said word one about millers.

There's no way town has 2 investigators.

Okay, why not?

Balance. Town has two cops, there's a vig. Impossible for scum to win.

By N1, town in 60+ plus of scenarios would have 4 clears or a guilty and two clears making the game near impossible.

Prolapsed Brain · Post Post #1028 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:00 pm

Math is hard. Can you ELI5?

Flubbernugget · Post Post #1029 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:03 pm

Titus wrote:
In post 1026, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 1020, Titus wrote:
In post 1017, Flubbernugget wrote:Do you know exactly how many millers there are or something

I haven't said word one about millers.

There's no way town has 2 investigators.

Okay, why not?

Balance. Town has two cops, there's a vig. Impossible for scum to win.

By N1, town in 60+ plus of scenarios would have 4 clears or a guilty and two clears making the game near impossible.

Okay so you know the alignment of the vig (and that its not a sk)

And you know the sanity of these cops

And you know that there isn't a further clusterfuck within the miller claims and flipped miller we have

And you figured this all out how?

Titus · Post Post #1030 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:15 pm

I don't know alignment of the second killer. For my purposes, it could be either.

FMPOV, claiming a guilty while being insane should be noted upfront. Also Boonskiies had no sanity warning. Sanity is not likely an issue. Also an insane thing would explain but is not consistent.

Further clusterfuck within millers *eyeroll* there's not even proof of a single miller. People point to boonskiies but he didn't claim miller or flip it.

Titus · Post Post #1031 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:17 pm

@PB, Official Math in a moment. I did a rough estimate in my head.

Titus · Post Post #1032 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:36 pm

If we assume a cop doesn't get modkilled or lynched D1, then there's a 2/11 chance for the vig/SK to hit a cop. 2/10 (2 scum with SK) or 2/9 (3 scum) for the scumteam. For odds that's 9/11 * 8/10 OR 9/11 * 7/9 that both cops hit Survive N1.

2 scum = 65.5℅ (rounded)
3 scum = 63.6% (rounded)

Then calculate the odds the cops don't check the same person or the dead guys.

That's 9/11 for cop 1 and 8/11 for cop 2. 9/11 *8/11 = 59.5%.

Multiply 59.5% times 65.5% or 63.6% and that's how often scum would be screwed D2 regardless of play.

That's 40% roughly. No way that passes review.

There is no second cop.

Titus · Post Post #1033 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:38 pm

I'm not losing my lid and causing a boat load of drama about Flubber's supposed sanity when I know he's lying. Just pretty common sense.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1034 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:38 pm

mmm I appreciate the math, but this is a bastard game, it's possible that someone could change alignment, and there is a confirmed miller + 2 additional miller claims.

Plus I am the second cop so from my angle it's 100% chance that there are two cops

Titus · Post Post #1035 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:39 pm

Oh and I was being generous in that 40% by supposing no scum were nked.

Titus · Post Post #1036 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:42 pm

In post 1034, GuiltyLion wrote:mmm I appreciate the math, but this is a bastard game, it's possible that someone could change alignment, and there is a confirmed miller + 2 additional miller claims.

Plus I am the second cop so from my angle it's 100% chance that there are two cops

There is no confirmed miller. Boonskiies wasn't a miller. But I will humor you for one moment.

Have you considered the possibility that everyone's a miller? I have something in my role PM about people looking at me funny but in no way did I think miller.

Don't buy you're a cop though.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1037 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:49 pm

How is Boonskiies Role PM "You're certain that anyone looking into your past will think you're involved in just about anything they're looking for" not miller?

I think you're making that up about your role PM. On the slim chance that you're not, that's basically what's in Boonskiies PM and my PM as well, which would make it 3 miller claims, and would make me largely worthless.

But I doubt town!Titus would see that in her PM and disregard it completely. Seems like you're flailing.

Titus · Post Post #1038 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:51 pm

@GL, If Boonskiies was a miller, the mod would have included Miller in the flip. Otherwise, Boonskiies role PM is a lie. And if his role PM is a lie, everything is a lie.

You would have to be largely worthless to be balanced.

Titus · Post Post #1039 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:52 pm

You're making this up. You can drop the reaction test now. Anyone who does basic math knows you're lying.

mastin2 · Post Post #1040 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 7:20 pm

I'm alive?

...I'm alive!

...I'm alive?!?

...Crap. That means I have to do ~reading~.
*grumble, grumble, gripe, gripe*
(Interestingly, the Rob13 kill wasn't that surprising to me, and I actually thought it was going to probably happen if I didn't die, but oh, well. I'm here, he's not, I'll have to live with that. And do reading now since I didn't overnight. What, with the whole "never read a game when you replace in as town during the night" policy and all that.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1041 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 7:23 pm

In post 960, Aristophanes wrote:Those deaths hurt

I take it it's two types of scum (be it 2v2 or 3v1), since neither Rob nor Silver looked particularly scum to me.

mastin2 · Post Post #1042 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2015 7:25 pm

In post 984, Prolapsed Brain wrote:Miller Cop? I call bullshit.

I don't.

VOTE: Titus.

Aristophanes · Post Post #1043 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 1:30 am

Hey Mastina!!!
Welcome to Helen!

We need to know apparently.
Is there a line in your pm that says something about seedy pasts or looking incriminate if people look at you or anything along those lines?

My brain is going into conspiracy theory land and I need to know for ~reasons to be explained later~ (partially because I am off to work right now).

Who else around town has a cryptic message of the sort?

Vedith · Post Post #1044 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:14 am

Prodge - Catch up to come later.

Flubbernugget · Post Post #1045 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:31 am

In post 1038, Titus wrote:@GL, If Boonskiies was a miller, the mod would have included Miller in the flip. Otherwise, Boonskiies role PM is a lie. And if his role PM is a lie, everything is a lie.

You would have to be largely worthless to be balanced.

That is a huge logical leap saying "implied Miller is lying" and jingles disclaimer about role pm's being inaccurate is most likely in reference to the janitor role.

Ive played a non bastard game with jingle where he gave me a night action without appending a full role name to it

Flubbernugget · Post Post #1046 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:37 am

In post 1030, Titus wrote:I don't know alignment of the second killer. For my purposes, it could be either.

FMPOV, claiming a guilty while being insane should be noted upfront. Also Boonskiies had no sanity warning. Sanity is not likely an issue. Also an insane thing would explain but is not consistent.

Further clusterfuck within millers *eyeroll* there's not even proof of a single miller. People point to boonskiies but he didn't claim miller or flip it.

So you're changing the goal posts - - "oh it doesn't have to be a vig you know what I mean guys"

Who notes a cop's own sanity in their role pm? Kinda defeats the purpose of sanity does it not? Also a better explanation to" I can't guarantee accurate role pm's" than saying everything is a lie

And I've already covered the Miller part but you're the lynch for today so I'm not even sure why I'm still talking to you

Titus · Post Post #1047 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 5:19 am

That's not changing goal posts.

I'm not going to spend all day defending myself. If you're going to mislynch me, do it already. Being constantly on the defensive makes it impossible to reset reads and find scum.

So just get it over with.

PROD DODGE!

Flubbernugget · Post Post #1048 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:57 pm

Hurry up and get your votes in before the ate wears off

A Simple Plan · Post Post #1049 (ISO) » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:00 pm

I'm here. I'll read stuff when I get a chance.

Quick answer to Aristophanes' question, I think the question you asked regarding Titus being implicated or cleared by SW's death is a rather scum-minded question because it tests the waters more on a Titus wagon instead of pushing one way or the other. It's a setup question that instinctually implicates Titus in a framing sort of manner.

Based upon that, I'm more inclined to believe Titus is town.