Micro 542: Five Nights at Freddy's Good End.

[Flow Alpha]

reads list

town: davsto. he has been making very good points and appears very townie even though he is foolish and wrong to say I am scum.

scum: lane is scum. he wants to get me lynched. guiltylion is scum because marge was right.

neutral: marge has been voting guiltylion which is correct but then she voted me which is incorrect so I don't know what to think. everyone else is neutral as well since I don't really care what they had to say

[Marge]

Your reason for scum reading lane is awful.
Not the how cute newb awful.
It's the I don't know how to make a case when I'm scum awful

[lane0168]

VOTE: flow

[Lucky2u]

Vote Count 2.FINAL

Flow Alpha (LYNCHED!) - Davsto, Shiro, Marge, lane0168
lane0168 (L-4)- Flow Alpha
Davsto (L-4)-
GuiltyLion (L-4)-
ZZZX (L-4)-
Marge (L-3)- GuiltyLion
Shiro (L-4)-

Not Voting: ZZZX

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch!

Flow Alpha was...

Spoiler:

You are:

Balloon Boy

-You are Mafia aligned.

-During the day you may target a player. That player is unable to target anyone with a role power.

-You or your partner may submit a night kill.

-You win when you and your partner have a majority or nothing can prevent it.

-You may talk with your partner HERE at anytime during the day or night!

Day 2 starts now and ends in: (expired on 2015-11-07 12:00:00)

[Lucky2u]

Sh͟i̵ro͏, ̨

J͏ere̶m̢y F͟it͞zge͘r̢ald

,͡ ҉wa̛s͢ D̀áy͘ 2!̴

J̐ͪ͒̃҉e̶̋̓͗ͣ̊ͣ̈́rͨ̋͂̓ͮ̄̾ēͮͪͧ͆̚͜m͑̑ͤ̀y̡͛͌͛ F̵̂̀ͥ̊̄iẗ́̃ͪͦ͗źġ̊ͬͤͨeͣͨ̿̚r͐̋̇̄̔a̒ͧͨ͐l̽̏ͫ҉ḑ͊

,͌̊̎ ͯͫ͊ẅ̴̿ͧą̏̉͋̇͑͒s̷ͩͯ̃͌̿͗̋ ̷̍̾ͪ̒̓̂͂k̶ͯ̽ͫ͋ͣ͆ì̴̽̃ͨl̀̊̅lͨ̀ͩ͊eͤͪ̇͆ͭͥ́d̽ ̿̓D̔ͩ̐ͮ̊ȧ̒̏͢ŷ̌̏͒ͣͧͫ ͯ͝2̷̋̿̽!̸̈ͪ

S̥͖͒ͮ̍̍͒̃͐ḧ͖̻̻̤̯ḯ͉̥̪̹̣͖ͧͬ́ṛ͙̀́̒̄̌̑o͖̤͚̱̦̝͟,̹̖͍̩̥̖̒̕ ̤̗͂͟

J̬̟̻̤͉̃͊e̷̠͖̦̬̪ͧ̓r͈̀̍ͩ̆e̤ͣm̷͉̏y̵̺̤̳͌ ̙̰̖̼̠̦̟̄ͭͬ̔͋F̤̳̤̊͟ï͔̦͚̲̼̋̒̌t̋͋ͫ́z̻̟̟̃ͦ̓ͫg͓̬̣͕̬ͯ͒̓ē̱̮̬̿͠r̰̊ͫa̧̼̱͖̾l̅ͦͥ͏d̷̦̲̜͐͊͗

,̛̉ͬ̀̒̐ͬ ͪ͏̫͍̭͚͈̯͕k̞̪͉͓̱̽̋͒̔̍̎̾͘iͧ̽ͣ̐̆̚͏̘͇̯͖l̳͕̜̓ͭ̐ͦl̡̳ͩ̒e̻͎̠̹̙̯͉d̑͊́͏͇̝̯̬̯͚ ̩̈́̃D̲͍͙ͣͫ̓̏̄ȁ̛̓̆̎y̰͉̌̀ ̪͎̹̪̻͓̳̅ͫ̅̊ͭ͟2̼̗̔̓̂ͦͬͫ̅!̹͔̭̬͇͗̓̇̐̇̆

Shiro,

Jeremy Fitzgerald

,

GAME OVER

Day 2.

Spoiler: Role PM

You are:

Jeremy Fitzgerald

-You are Town aligned.

-You may use your empty Freddy head to watch those around you. During the day you may target a player. You will be told who, if anyone has targeted them.

-You win when all threats to the town are eliminated

NIGHT 3 START!

Vote Count 3.0

lane0168 (L-3)-
Davsto (L-3)-
GuiltyLion (L-3)-
ZZZX (L-3)-
Marge (L-3)-

With

5

alive, it takes

3

to lynch!

Night 3 ends in: (expired on 2015-11-19 12:00:00)

[Davsto]

Sh͟i̵ro͏, ̨

J͏ere̶m̢y F͟it͞zge͘r̢ald

,͡ ҉wa̛s͢ D̀áy͘ 2!̴

J̐ͪ͒̃҉e̶̋̓͗ͣ̊ͣ̈́rͨ̋͂̓ͮ̄̾ēͮͪͧ͆̚͜m͑̑ͤ̀y̡͛͌͛ F̵̂̀ͥ̊̄iẗ́̃ͪͦ͗źġ̊ͬͤͨeͣͨ̿̚r͐̋̇̄̔a̒ͧͨ͐l̽̏ͫ҉ḑ͊

,͌̊̎ ͯͫ͊ẅ̴̿ͧą̏̉͋̇͑͒s̷ͩͯ̃͌̿͗̋ ̷̍̾ͪ̒̓̂͂k̶ͯ̽ͫ͋ͣ͆ì̴̽̃ͨl̀̊̅lͨ̀ͩ͊eͤͪ̇͆ͭͥ́d̽ ̿̓D̔ͩ̐ͮ̊ȧ̒̏͢ŷ̌̏͒ͣͧͫ ͯ͝2̷̋̿̽!̸̈ͪ

S̥͖͒ͮ̍̍͒̃͐ḧ͖̻̻̤̯ḯ͉̥̪̹̣͖ͧͬ́ṛ͙̀́̒̄̌̑o͖̤͚̱̦̝͟,̹̖͍̩̥̖̒̕ ̤̗͂͟

J̬̟̻̤͉̃͊e̷̠͖̦̬̪ͧ̓r͈̀̍ͩ̆e̤ͣm̷͉̏y̵̺̤̳͌ ̙̰̖̼̠̦̟̄ͭͬ̔͋F̤̳̤̊͟ï͔̦͚̲̼̋̒̌t̋͋ͫ́z̻̟̟̃ͦ̓ͫg͓̬̣͕̬ͯ͒̓ē̱̮̬̿͠r̰̊ͫa̧̼̱͖̾l̅ͦͥ͏d̷̦̲̜͐͊͗

,̛̉ͬ̀̒̐ͬ ͪ͏̫͍̭͚͈̯͕k̞̪͉͓̱̽̋͒̔̍̎̾͘iͧ̽ͣ̐̆̚͏̘͇̯͖l̳͕̜̓ͭ̐ͦl̡̳ͩ̒e̻͎̠̹̙̯͉d̑͊́͏͇̝̯̬̯͚ ̩̈́̃D̲͍͙ͣͫ̓̏̄ȁ̛̓̆̎y̰͉̌̀ ̪͎̹̪̻͓̳̅ͫ̅̊ͭ͟2̼̗̔̓̂ͦͬͫ̅!̹͔̭̬͇͗̓̇̐̇̆

Shiro,

Jeremy Fitzgerald

,

GAME OVER

Day 2.

Because that's not weird or anything.

[GuiltyLion]

oh look, I was right about Shiro being town. Maybe now you'll believe me about ZZZX being town too.

Scum definitely bussed Flow Alpha, the question is which bus was most likely to be scum. Davsto essentially guaranteed he'd be the lynch, which is preeettyyy likely to be town, but I wouldn't rule it out as a bus completely. Lane stuck on Flow most of the day too and remains my strongest townread. Marge didn't vote him initially and tried to make Shiro look scummy for ignoring Dav and Lane votes. She's still my top scumpick.

VOTE: Marge

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - which vote was most likely to be scum

[Marge]

oh look, I was right about Shiro being town. Maybe now you'll believe me about ZZZX being town too.

Scum definitely bussed Flow Alpha, the question is which bus was most likely to be scum. Davsto essentially guaranteed he'd be the lynch, which is preeettyyy likely to be town, but I wouldn't rule it out as a bus completely. Lane stuck on Flow most of the day too and remains my strongest townread. Marge didn't vote him initially and tried to make Shiro look scummy for ignoring Dav and Lane votes. She's still my top scumpick.

VOTE: Marge

Oh look the player that never explains why a player is town.
Never cc even day 1 after flow's claim and was scum reading zzx day 2

So what is your plan for tomorrow when I'm dead!
You going to claim your "ability"?
Or keep lying?

Vote: guilty lion

[GuiltyLion]

LOL I'm a cop, I'll just claim it now since it apparently wasn't obvious enough for you.

[Marge]

Let's not forget the classic scum killing the player they town read just to justify how "right" they were so everyone should listen crap.

It's been done and said many time before from far, far better player lion.

[Marge]

LOL I'm a cop, I'll just claim it now since it apparently wasn't obvious enough for you.

Mare you claiming you "checked me?"
Yes or no?

[GuiltyLion]

Investigated Shiro n1 because 55 was a super sketchy looking post.

Investigated ZZZX n2 because he's a lurksack and had no chance of dying last night.

I trust myself to get my scumreads lynched, so I investigate players that I'm null on or doubting my townread. I don't investigate my scumreads.

Look, if anyone doubts my claim, then you should deal with me in LYLO. Lynching a claimed cop before then is mathematically an incorrect play because it only widens your scumpool and guarantees ZZZX dies tonight. Voting a cop claim is hilariously anti-town.

[Marge]

Investigated Shiro n1 because 55 was a super sketchy looking post.

Investigated ZZZX n2 because he's a lurksack and had no chance of dying last night.

I trust myself to get my scumreads lynched, so I investigate players that I'm null on or doubting my townread. I don't investigate my scumreads.

Look, if anyone doubts my claim, then you should deal with me in LYLO. Lynching a claimed cop before then is mathematically an incorrect play because it only widens your scumpool and guarantees ZZZX dies tonight. Voting a cop claim is hilariously anti-town.

Okay if that's true ill go with Davsto as final scum.
But don't expect me by it without a full claim or you explaining a lack of cc in regards to flow

[Marge]

Also the bad case and stretch or reasoning for your scum read lion.

Or how you think is a player is sketchy to you, the player isn't sketchy to others.

Just pointing out how flawed the logic is thus far

[Davsto]

A Watcher

and

a Cop? I'm not sure I buy it.

[Marge]

A Watcher

and

a Cop? I'm not sure I buy it.

Watcher?

[Davsto]

Shiro.

[Davsto]

-You may use your empty Freddy head to watch those around you. During the day you may target a player. You will be told who, if anyone has targeted them.

[Marge]

Oh I missed shiro ability.
Never mind.

Dav, before I go into wifom craziness mode, can you tell me what your thoughts of the players in the game are?

[Davsto]

lane - I think he might be town. He was suspicious of Shiro for a lot of yesterday if my memory serves me correctly, and I imagine that as scum he wouldn't have killed her as it would have allowed him to push her today.
GuiltyLion - His claim is questionable considering a flipped Watcher, the fact that he didn't inspect you to make sure if he was right and to avoid him wrongly tunneling is weird, as is him not inspecting Flow Alpha early on too, particularly after Flow's D1 quickhammer.
ZZZX - Confirmed town (or Godfather but that's really not a can of worms worth opening).
Marge - I... don't know. I'm kinda ill today so I won't do a reread to make sure, but I'll get around to it when I'm more able to function.

[GuiltyLion]

To be frank, I don't really care whether you believe me or not, I've guaranteed that there will be a conftown player if we go to LyLo, either ZZZX or the player I have a clear on.

And setting aside the truth of my claim, it is a mathematically incorrect play to lynch me today. Here's why:

-------------

World where GL gets lynched today

If I am scum - town wins.
If I am town - ZZZX dies tonight, and LYLO is {Davsto, Marge, Lane}. There are three possible lynches, only one of them is correct. So there are two worlds where scum wins and one world where town wins.

In total - four worlds, two of them town wins, two of them scum wins.

50% chance of victory.

But note that this logic applies to literally any player in the game, because we have 2 possible lynches and a lynchpool of 4 (because we remove the D3 NK from the pool).

-------------

World where GL does not get lynched today

If we do not lynch me today, we believe my claim, and therefore we do not lynch ZZZX either. Lynchpool is {Davsto, Marge, Lane}

Therefore, there is one world where we lynch scum and win.
Two worlds where we lynch town and go into LYLO.

In both worlds, either ZZZX will die or I will die. If ZZZX dies, then whoever I have cleared N3 is conftown. If I die, then ZZZX is conftown. So the D3 NK is irrelevant, the point is that there will be a conftown player in LYLO.

So in both worlds, there are two further worlds, one where scum wins and one where town wins.

In total - five possible worlds, three where town wins, two where scum wins.

60% chance of victory.

-------------

Conclusion

Lynching me today literally decreases your chance of winning by 10%, regardless of whether I am telling the truth or not.

And I can tell you that it would actually decrease your chances of winning by far more, because my claim is true and so we rule out world 1 in the first scenario, but it's up to you whether you believe that or not.

-------------

Davsto doubting my claim like this is weird. I am okay with either a Davsto lynch or a Marge lynch, prefer Marge lynch but I'll let Lane and ZZZX decide.

[Davsto]

Reducing a game about analysing and thoughts to numbers to support your hypothesis is a terrible idea.

[GuiltyLion]

If that math doesn't make sense to you, just think about it this way - there will be a conftown player in LYLO unless you lynch me today.

Davsto, are you serious? Numbers don't lie. Towns would do far better overall if they considered the

actual probabilities

of what they are thinking. Too many times I see people just bullshit "I think either [x] or [y] is scum" when it's strictly unlikely that such a statement is true. Looking at the game analytically both introduces a lot more healthy skepticism, and also tells you when something is the right call.

[Davsto]

there will be a conftown player in LYLO unless you lynch me today.

If you are town and telling the truth (still not buying it) then there is both a Town Cop and a Mafia Roleblocker. Probability states that the Roleblocker is to avoid Follow the Cop and thus there is a Doctor. So, there could still be a conftown player in LYLO if we lynch you today. Fun fact there, for you.