Open 612 - Bad Poets Society - Game Over - Town Win

[The Fire Hermit]

I really don't see anything strong as of late for this switch onto grayfox over brunneis.
But w/e.

I think I am doing bad this game, my other head is more confidant in his reads than me. Usually I feel pretty confidant about my reads too.

-Fire

[Persivul]

This is ridiculous. I like the duppin wagon better. If duppin is scum, he's more dangerous than brunneis. But brun is looking scummier by the post, and it's apparent that nothing else is going to get done while they're still in the game.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: brunneis

This is why I'd be voting Persivul if I had the opportunity.

Why is that?

I made a case on duppin, it got two more votes, then it stalled. Why would town sit on a stalled wagon as deadline is approaching?

BTW, have you considered the setup and what it says about my slot? ika appears to be a RB and targeted maka N1, but the NK went through, the SK went through, and according to the doc the scum RB went through. This clears me as potential SK. It doesn't completely clear me as scum, but it is certainly in my favor. If maka were scum, there's a 2/3 chance that either the scum NK or the scum RB would have been blocked. (Disclaimer - this is true regarding both NKs and feels intuitively true regarding the RB, but I'm not sure how RB blocking another RB resloves.)

[Brunneis]

Picking up my prod. Thought I made an LA post, but I could see how those are easily missable. I'll pm next time.

Anyways, like I said earlier I'm back later today so I'll be able to go back to normal posting then.

From skimming this pages posts I'm seeing a Grayfox wagon. While better than a Brunneis one I'm not sure if I'm feeling it. Ranger or Errant would be better imo but I haven't properly read up yet. See you all tonight

I can see Errant/Ranger being a good wagon. However, there are 3 things that keep me from pushing either of them at this point - which makes me think the best candidate is Gray at this point.

1)

I'm still holding the theory that Ranger is most likely an SK; if not... less likely, but a vig. We're at 6 town, and assuming the latter is true and worst case set-up scenario is true, 3 mafia and 1 SK.

I've explained why I think Gray is most likely in a scumteam. That said - if we lynch 1/3 of the mafia team today; we risk the chances of losing 2 town, 1 town and 1 mafia, and a crosskill of a town, or the SK and town.

Let's do the worst case scenario first: 2 town are targeted to be killed tonight and they're successful. Provided we mislynch today or don't lynch the SK

Mafia will win 3-3-1

We need to reduce the mafia numbers. Especially if we can't entirely say that we do in fact have an SK. Best case scenario if we lynch mafia; only 1 town dies by crosskill or if the SK dies as well.

The ratio would be:

5-2 - If the SK dies.
5-2-1 - If the SK lives.

In any case, we could put ourselves out of mylo if we eliminate scum - and if we don't, mafia could win.

2)

Less sure of Errant, I haven't seen him post much since the major Gray wagon, so I can't exactly tell if that's still the best route. I do say, I'm not sure if I townread or scumread them. I feel like a flip could relieve some ambiguity.

3)

Personally, I can't see town motivation in Gray at this point. Even the response to his wagon, it just comes across as apathetic in his responses, as if he isn't worried, which actually makes me think that'd come from scum versus town.

Scum don't need to pitch a fit when they could be lynched, especially since Gray has 2 other scumbuddies on him.

If Gray is truly town, I think he'd be more concerned at this point - and would be more apt to listen to my case and arguments against him instead of minimizing and dismissing them.

I really don't see anything strong as of late for this switch onto grayfox over brunneis.
But w/e.

I think I am doing bad this game, my other head is more confidant in his reads than me. Usually I feel pretty confidant about my reads too.

-Fire

May I help?

Where is a major case for this hydra to be the best lynch? (Other than 2/3s the flips we've seen - which is WIFOM btw)

You can look at these last 3 pages to see how Gray is. ISO us.

[Persivul]

Wow, you wouldn't guess there's 1.5 days left in phase from the level of (in)activity here.

[GrayFoxxxx]

I'm not sure brunn and Ranger are scum together.

Brunn, I usually park my vote on who I think is scum. I don't know the percentage, but I'm right quite often with atleast one of my D1 scum picks. I have a track record of being mislynched D1 because of this reason. I'm starting to think I should keep my actual scum picks to myself.

This situation is familiar to me. In DM2, I knew in my heart of hearts TSO was scum. He somehow orchestrated a beautiful mislynch on me, while manipulating the town into doing pretty much what he wanted. Not saying that you are doing the same thing, just giving an example of why I vote the way I do.

Brunn, are you willing to compromise on a ranger lynch? The only difference in our reads is you think he's SK. If this is TvT I think a ranger lynch would help us see that.

[Brunneis]

Brunn, I usually park my vote on who I think is scum. I don't know the percentage, but I'm right quite often with atleast one of my D1 scum picks. I have a track record of being mislynched D1 because of this reason. I'm starting to think I should keep my actual scum picks to myself.

Who did you think was scum in D1 other than me? I'm ISOing you and I do not see who else you actually paid attention to with any sort of suspicion or vote.

This situation is familiar to me. In DM2, I knew in my heart of hearts TSO was scum. He somehow orchestrated a beautiful mislynch on me, while manipulating the town into doing pretty much what he wanted. Not saying that you are doing the same thing, just giving an example of why I vote the way I do.

Could you link this game?

Brunn, are you willing to compromise on a ranger lynch? The only difference in our reads is you think he's SK. If this is TvT I think a ranger lynch would help us see that.

I don't know. You've yet to be consistent with your Ranger read.

You townread him a bit in D1, you just now began questioning him these last few pages after my push

But then you want both of us lynched but you remain on the same person you have through the majority of this game.

What changed you from wanting to lynch me, to finally going on Ranger?

In that case, why haven't you changed your vote?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

OK, there's something wrong with this picture.

748 Duppin prompts me to look at my own scumreads and to pursue Gray - but he's yet to do that himself. 788 (However, I'm not ruling out that he wouldn't do that but still....)

I go after Gray since nobody else would - and now I'm being proposed to agree to vote to lynch Ranger who I don't even think is part of the scum team.

Combined with these inconsistencies themselves - and the fact that I've already pursued Ranger...

Just like, what is this?

The activity drop doesn't look good either.

This is the reason why I have an issue with everybody in this game that isn't in the conf-town circle.

duppin

Ranger

GrayFoxxxx

MaxwellPuckett

Persivul

ErrantParabola

The thing that gets me is, numerically - at least 1 of you must be town as well

(These reads can change in a bit, Kling has been a bit busy and isn't entirely caught up to my belief. However, this represents my thoughts at the moment.)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ika Musume
Varsoon

The Fire Hermit

I need to talk to you people.

Ika

, what do you think about Ranger?

Varsoon

, how do you feel about a Gray lynch?

Hermit

, why haven't you replied to my 847 - and it contains elements I want you to respond to this entire game.

[Persivul]

I think that I shall never hear
Of town as lazy as this one here

We should be posting in a rage
But nary a word gets on the page

The scum and SK surely smirk
Because we let them coast and lurk

Will town wake up and strive for fame
Or snooze until too late - endgamed?

[The Fire Hermit]

Hey, don't look at me. I have been trying to get scum lynched all game.

The problem is that you are not getting on board the scum wagon and actively propping up the continued existence of scum.

[Ika Musume]

Ika, what do you think about Ranger?

conflicted, which is why I've been asking her to explain her reads for basically this whole time since I was in the game.

I'm mostly just waiting for the wagon of death on Gray to arrive.

[Varsoon]

I support the GreyFoxx wagon.

[Varsoon]

Furthermore, I've gone on record saying the only reason I am not voting is so that we have more room for analyzing the voters on the wagon after the flip.

[Varsoon]

I will hammer out/vote if a wagon can't reach lynch otherwise, though.

[Brunneis]

Hey, don't look at me. I have been trying to get scum lynched all game.

The problem is that you are not getting on board the scum wagon and actively propping up the continued existence of scum.

It has been

40

posts since you responded to my 847 in wanting to re-engage with you.

It has been

599

posts since you responded to my 288 - my questions directed toward you.

I'm doing you a favor, Hermit - you won't have to single out Kling anymore to try to figure out whose posting what, because every post I make I'll keep a count of how thoroughly you've ignored this head of the hydra, and this hydra in general in this game.

Ika, what do you think about Ranger?

conflicted, which is why I've been asking her to explain her reads for basically this whole time since I was in the game.

I'm mostly just waiting for the wagon of death on Gray to arrive.

In that case, what do you think about Gray's proposal of compromising for Rangers lynch?

Furthermore, I've gone on record saying the only reason I am not voting is so that we have more room for analyzing the voters on the wagon after the flip.

Gray is at L-2 btw - and we have 30 hours before the deadline - just saying that here so everyone is on the same page...

I have the same question toward you as I posed to Ika above.

[Varsoon]

I'd be willing to compromise for a Ranger lynch, as I could see Ranger as SK.

[Ika Musume]

I could lynch Ranger but I mislynched her the first game we played (albeit I was scum) so I'm scared to lynch her until she actually answers my question so I can solidify a read on her. granted, I doubt she will actually get around to it before the deadline

[GrayFoxxxx]

Brunn, I usually park my vote on who I think is scum. I don't know the percentage, but I'm right quite often with atleast one of my D1 scum picks. I have a track record of being mislynched D1 because of this reason. I'm starting to think I should keep my actual scum picks to myself.

Who did you think was scum in D1 other than me? I'm ISOing you and I do not see who else you actually paid attention to with any sort of suspicion or vote.

This situation is familiar to me. In DM2, I knew in my heart of hearts TSO was scum. He somehow orchestrated a beautiful mislynch on me, while manipulating the town into doing pretty much what he wanted. Not saying that you are doing the same thing, just giving an example of why I vote the way I do.

Could you link this game?

Brunn, are you willing to compromise on a ranger lynch? The only difference in our reads is you think he's SK. If this is TvT I think a ranger lynch would help us see that.

I don't know. You've yet to be consistent with your Ranger read.

You townread him a bit in D1, you just now began questioning him these last few pages after my push

But then you want both of us lynched but you remain on the same person you have through the majority of this game.

What changed you from wanting to lynch me, to finally going on Ranger?

In that case, why haven't you changed your vote?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

OK, there's something wrong with this picture.

748 Duppin prompts me to look at my own scumreads and to pursue Gray - but he's yet to do that himself. 788 (However, I'm not ruling out that he wouldn't do that but still....)

I go after Gray since nobody else would - and now I'm being proposed to agree to vote to lynch Ranger who I don't even think is part of the scum team.

Combined with these inconsistencies themselves - and the fact that I've already pursued Ranger...

Just like, what is this?

The activity drop doesn't look good either.

This is the reason why I have an issue with everybody in this game that isn't in the conf-town circle.

duppin

Ranger

GrayFoxxxx

MaxwellPuckett

Persivul

ErrantParabola

The thing that gets me is, numerically - at least 1 of you must be town as well

(These reads can change in a bit, Kling has been a bit busy and isn't entirely caught up to my belief. However, this represents my thoughts at the moment.)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ika Musume
Varsoon

The Fire Hermit

I need to talk to you people.

Ika

, what do you think about Ranger?

Varsoon

, how do you feel about a Gray lynch?

Hermit

, why haven't you replied to my 847 - and it contains elements I want you to respond to this entire game.

NY 188.

I've been consistent on my ranger read since he scum slipped.

As a sign of good faith I'll make the first move.

VOTE: ranger

I still don't quite understand your read colors

[Brunneis]

Varsoon, what is it about the vote counts that preventing you from voting for Gray?

Klingon

[Quaroath]

Vote Count 2.7

Manger?
Granger!
Ranger!
Danger!

Greyfoxxxx - (4) Brunneis, Persivul, Ika Musume, Ranger
Ranger – (2) MaxwellPuckett, GrayFoxxxx
Brunneis – (1) The Fire Hermit

Not voting - (3) duppin, Errantparabola, Varsoon,

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-11-11 23:59:59)

[Ranger]

I made a case on duppin, it got two more votes, then it stalled.

And then you hopped onto the Brunneis wagon for incredibly-sketchy reasons.

BTW, have you considered the setup and what it says about my slot? ika appears to be a RB and targeted maka N1, but the NK went through, the SK went through, and according to the doc the scum RB went through. This clears me as potential SK. It doesn't completely clear me as scum, but it is certainly in my favor.

Given three scum? Not really, no. I've always thought you scum, not serial killer.

I'm scared to lynch her until she actually answers my question so I can solidify a read on her.

I'm forgetful; you'll have to remind me what question it was.

[duppin]

Sorry didn't have time yesterday.

Anyway, I am surprised the GrayFoxxxx wagon grew so quickly, but considering we are close to the deadline it probably isn't that surprising.
If Gray is scum and Brunneis town, I don't understand why scum don't push for Brunneis now. Is Ranger the deflection? Because I don't see that working out. I have to be completely honest this bothers me a little. I also don't like the fact that Persivul is on this train.

Anyway, the lynch seems to be between Ranger and GrayFoxxxx now and I'd definitely rather lynch GrayFoxxxx then.

VOTE: GrayFoxxxx

I will most likely be back again later to change my vote if needed, but unless the Brunneis train gets going again (or a Persivul train for some reason), I'm not that interested.

[duppin]

This puts Gray at L-1 by the way.

[Varsoon]

VOTE: GrayFoxx
So long as there was more than 24 hours on the clock, I wasn't going to vote.
Regardless of the flip, it is easier for people to work with vote-count analysis post-flip if more non-confirmed town are on the damn thing.

[Varsoon]

So, if you take Ika and me to be confirmed town, then you can really only analyze why the four other people were voting there for worthwhile results that may help with reading them.
Hope that makes sense.

[Ika Musume]

I'm forgetful; you'll have to remind me what question it was.

elaborate on the Brun scum read

[Ika Musume]

fox posting elsewhere and not checking in here makes me feel at least somewhat optimistic it was a scum lynch

inb4 he comes in here right after I post this