Mini 1730: Suikoden U-Pick GAME OVER

[Varsoon]

"Chaos would suit me just fine."

-Yuber,

Suikoden III

VOTECOUNT 3.0

Not Voting (9):

FireKari, Klingoncelt, Ranger, Elbirn, Reasonably Rational, wgeurts, BRantz, pistachi0n, Suzune

With 9 Alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.
Deadline

: (expired on 2015-11-28 04:15:00)

[Elbirn]

*Pours one out for the fallen homie*

So firekari what's the deal with you conftowning

[Suzune]

If you had asked me to take a bet on who it would be, I would have been wrong...

[Elbirn]

If you had asked me to take a bet on who it would be, I would have been wrong...

For the nk you mean?

Who did you think would have been nk'd?

[Suzune]

Well my gut feeling was going to be RR. Or one of the others that claimed Masons in post 652.

This leaves me with mixed feelings. The first being that they were scum and used that as a claim to hide behind. Or the second is that they are town and the mafia hoped to manipulate us into thinking that they were scum.

[FireKari]

*Pours one out for the fallen homie*

So firekari what's the deal with you conftowning

Just because we can doesn't mean we should. Either way, we were reaction fishing by mentioning it back then.

RR and wgeurts have us paranoid though we are split on our reads. Overall townlean due to the whole mason thing, we can see them as town but our gut is screaming something is not right, that they could be scumbuddies pulling a risky gambit. For now we will try to shelve these thoughts and focus elsewhere, but we thought it worth noting just in case things start going downhill. We thought RR would have been the best NK option last night, though jeanne11 is an interesting choice.

Of the remaining ppl we are not townreading, pistachi0n seems the most suspicious.
VOTE: pistachi0n

Also, since this is role madness, we are hoping town pr roles have been able to gather some useful info.
~Yukari

[FireKari]

Jeanne11 is not a bad NK for scum because her ability was powerful and she was mass town read, though she seemed a bit out of there, and easily manipulated, etc. With such a big town block, her being killed for being seen as town makes less sense, but we can believe that her ability alone could maybe be enough to draw nk. Still though we think it would have been better for scum to leave her alive until endgame and deal with other obvtown and threats first.

RR seems like a better NK choice because we sense a dangerousness there. Assuming RR is town, they seem like an asset to town regardless of role, unless they are scum in which case watch out. We get similar feels playing with Titus, they both seem to be strong players from our perspective.

Seems possible that scum purposely chose suboptimal NK to dblatk attack the town block by planting suspicion of the mason claim.

Then again we could be wrong about anything. We are just thinking outloud here, and we seem to be suffering from a bit of cognitive dissonance.

~Yukari

[Ranger]

So...with one scum left, now's a good time to claim.

Claim: modified roleblocker

.
I mark a person during the day. If I end the day voting a marked player, they will be roleblocked. Kills included, meaning I can stop the last scum.

I've debated on whether to tell the further restriction, but given that it'd require them nightkilling me and I'm not conftown, ultimately, I think it best to claim the tangent. My block doesn't work if the person I mark uses their role on me. So it forces the scum to make a choice: during the night, they either confirm the player I mark as being town and make a kill, no-kill to frame the person I mark, or kill me. In any case, I think we benefit.

I'm open to ideas on who to mark.
BRantz is already marked, and I'm open to who I will vote/mark.

[Ranger]

For the moment, I'll be doing this:
VOTE: BRantz.
But I'm saving the mark for discussion. I think we have three candidates: BRantz, Klingoncelt, and pistachi0n. The plan should be to lynch one of the three, and have me vote another, blocking them.

[FireKari]

For various reasons we are null/conflicted on Klingoncelt, Ranger, BRantz. Of the 3, Klingoncelt seems to be closest to a scum lean. We would like to see some fire from her. Would like to see more from all of these players.

Would also like to see more from pistachi0n. We have no strong scum reads right now. Would consider pistachi0n a null read due to having only 15 posts this entire game, and yet despite that she is a bit closer to scumlean than Klingon. She claims to be suspicious of us for some reason but has not rly explained why the tunnel. She seems content to merely fingerpoint at us, Elbirn, and ranger without actually doing much to pursue her scumreads. We are not feeling any effort here.

Then there is the interactions between her and LQ. She ended up on the LQ lynch, but feels like it could be a bus. Other than her Voting LQ after the LQ lynch seemed inevitable, and asking LQ about the read on Jeanne11, the only other mention of LQ is pistachi0n voting us because of us voting LQ.
Looking at LQ's iso, this one back and forth is the only interaction with pistachi0n, we don't see anything else in there related to pistachi0n:

So far I don't like Jeanne11

What don't you like so far?

At the time I was looking at there two posts they made. The first post was a derp on a youtube code which was addressed to Titus. The second post was asking Elb if he was being sarcastic which I suppose isn't that weird, but I mean its a little obvious and there was just something about it that didn't jive well with me. After that Jeanne11 does the whole team up with Titus, which seems like there is some trust between the two regardless of what Titus says about it.

So TLDR, it looks like LQ and pistachi0n were avoiding each other. Pistachi0n ends up on the LQ lynch, which seems strange given she stated no previous suspicion of LQ, claimed to be suspicious of others despite lack of effort going after those reads, and even voted us because of our LQ vote. Plus the timing of the vote, happened only after an LQ lynch seemed inevitable. All things considered, this smells of likely bus attempt.

[FireKari]

So...with one scum left, now's a good time to claim.

Are you sure there is only 1 scum remaining?

Claim: modified roleblocker

.
I mark a person during the day. If I end the day voting a marked player, they will be roleblocked. Kills included, meaning I can stop the last scum.

I've debated on whether to tell the further restriction, but given that it'd require them nightkilling me and I'm not conftown, ultimately, I think it best to claim the tangent. My block doesn't work if the person I mark uses their role on me. So it forces the scum to make a choice: during the night, they either confirm the player I mark as being town and make a kill, no-kill to frame the person I mark, or kill me. In any case, I think we benefit.

I'm open to ideas on who to mark.
BRantz is already marked, and I'm open to who I will vote/mark.

There are a cpl probs with your scenario.

[Ranger]

Four scum?

I don't see how that would work.

So, yes. I'm claiming, so we can maximize the utility of my role.

[Ranger]

I do think that BRantz is the last scum, though.

Brantz - He will remain in my lynch pool unless he does something townie.

This in a list of five suspects stands out the most.

[Ranger]

There's also this:

I like BRanz so far.

That post? 221.

What could he have

possibly

have liked about 7 or 68?

[BRantz]

I've said it before and I will say it again. In the event that this game has a chance to go to lylo (which at the moment I don't think it does), I should be lynched before then. If it happens today while we definitely have mislynches to spare I am fine with that. Ranger, you are awful at reading me, you do remember that I made the case on BM for lynch yesterday right?

[Ranger]

Ranger while articulate doesn't seem to be convincing anyone of anything right now. RR seems the most reasonable by far. Jeanne is Jeanne and not much will change from them, but I think they are town for reasons Rager has said. It doesn't make sense that Jeanne would be so strong against me as Scum. Wgeurts is weird. I don't know why they are defending me so strongly. IDK could just be because of going against popular opinion, not sure. As far as I'm concerned, Titus has done nothing actually helpful this game by using their ability that, lets face it, lead to a wild goose chase and lots and lots of Wifom. I have no idea why Town!Titus would do something with such little thought put behind it. Brants made an entrance and didn't really do anything. Kling has more of barely anything, FireKari flips their stance on me for the zillionth time and lastly, for the first time noticing this, Elb doesn't really go into detail on their read on me, but just says I am Scum.

This list also means BRantz could be scum, but if it's not BRantz, it's probably pistachi0n: notice who's there and who isn't. Blackest Magic is absent. And so is pistachi0n.

[Ranger]

In fact: pistachi0n is altogether absent from LQ's iso. Even Klingoncelt was given a passing townread.

[FireKari]

Four scum?

I don't see how that would work.

So, yes. I'm claiming, so we can maximize the utility of my role.

According to Xyl's Setup Design Crash Course, the standard is for scum to make up between 25% and 33% of the playerbase depending on how strong town is. With 14 players in the setup, that would work out to between 3.5 and 4.62 scum.

[Ranger]

We had 13.

[FireKari]

Ranger while articulate doesn't seem to be convincing anyone of anything right now. RR seems the most reasonable by far. Jeanne is Jeanne and not much will change from them, but I think they are town for reasons Rager has said. It doesn't make sense that Jeanne would be so strong against me as Scum. Wgeurts is weird. I don't know why they are defending me so strongly. IDK could just be because of going against popular opinion, not sure. As far as I'm concerned, Titus has done nothing actually helpful this game by using their ability that, lets face it, lead to a wild goose chase and lots and lots of Wifom. I have no idea why Town!Titus would do something with such little thought put behind it. Brants made an entrance and didn't really do anything. Kling has more of barely anything, FireKari flips their stance on me for the zillionth time and lastly, for the first time noticing this, Elb doesn't really go into detail on their read on me, but just says I am Scum.

This list also means BRantz could be scum, but if it's not BRantz, it's probably pistachi0n: notice who's there and who isn't. Blackest Magic is absent. And so is pistachi0n.

LQ avoided others as well.

In fact: pistachi0n is altogether absent from LQ's iso. Even Klingoncelt was given a passing townread.

We just listed every LQ/pistachi0n interaction we could find in a post above on this page. Is not much, but more than nothing.

We had 13.

Sry error on our part as we didn't notice the first VC included bright for 14 players. 13 players would math out to between 3.25 and 4.29 scum, based on xyl setup guide.

[FireKari]

I've said it before and I will say it again. In the event that this game has a chance to go to lylo (which at the moment I don't think it does), I should be lynched before then. If it happens today while we definitely have mislynches to spare I am fine with that. Ranger, you are awful at reading me, you do remember that I made the case on BM for lynch yesterday right?

After re-reading your ISO, our read on you shifts to townlean.

Current thoughts on RR, wgeurts, klingoncelt, ranger, and pistachi0n?

@Ranger Can your roleblock prevent day actions?
~Yukari

[Ranger]

LQ avoided others as well.

I counted. Me, one. RR, two. Jeanne, three. wgeurts, four. Titus, five. Brantz, six. Klingon, seven. FireKari, eight. Elbirn, nine.

I suppose Suzune isn't included, but he has plenty of interaction with Suzune which suggests they are not scumbuddies.

@Ranger Can your roleblock prevent day actions?

No, which is why I knew wgeurts's dayvig on me was fake.

[FireKari]

LicketyQuickety (LYNCH): Ranger, Suzune, Firekari, pistachi0n, Jeanne11, Titus, Elbirn, wgeurts
Titus (2): Klingoncelt, LicketyQuickety
Ranger (1): Blackest Magick
Bright (1): Reasonably Rational
Blackest Magick (1): BRantz
wgeurts (1): Bright

Blackest Magick (LYNCH): Ranger, Elbirn, Jeanne11, Suzune, BRantz, wgeurts
Reasonably Rational (1): FireKari
Ranger (1): pistachi0n

Not Voting (3): Blackest Magick, Klingoncelt, Reasonably Rational

Klingoncelt and RR were off both lynches. Pistati0n was off the BM lynch and was on the LQ lynch, though that lynch looks bussy for reasons explained earlier.

LQ ISO contains very little of klingoncelt or RR.

LQs interactions with klingon seem a bit strange. The first 3 look like fluff, then:

I lean Town on Kling for this post cuz its the first time I have ever seen them make a reads list and all I've seen of them is Scum.

I went through Klings ISO and saw some Scum hunting. That's an ok sign I guess. I nailed Kling last game we were both in for not doing that and they were Scum who didn't get lynched fwiw.

Where?

IDK.. go through her ISO as see if you see her asking any questions and stuff.

Kling has more of barely anything

Spoiler: full post

OK, I'm caught up (I think). Doesn't look like much happened. People are still Scum reading me for no reason or poor reasons.

Ranger while articulate doesn't seem to be convincing anyone of anything right now. RR seems the most reasonable by far. Jeanne is Jeanne and not much will change from them, but I think they are town for reasons Rager has said. It doesn't make sense that Jeanne would be so strong against me as Scum. Wgeurts is weird. I don't know why they are defending me so strongly. IDK could just be because of going against popular opinion, not sure. As far as I'm concerned, Titus has done nothing actually helpful this game by using their ability that, lets face it, lead to a wild goose chase and lots and lots of Wifom. I have no idea why Town!Titus would do something with such little thought put behind it. Brants made an entrance and didn't really do anything. Kling has more of barely anything, FireKari flips their stance on me for the zillionth time and lastly, for the first time noticing this, Elb doesn't really go into detail on their read on me, but just says I am Scum.

I think that pretty much covers it.

So we are getting closer to lynch and it will likely be me. Its prolly not the best role to go, but its prolly not the worst either. I really have no idea of what the setup is like. I am just guessing there is some irregular roles involved when thinking about roles and how they are balanced and stuff.

"Kling is town cuz she posted reads list. Kling town cuz she scumhunting. Where is she scum hunting? IDK. Kling has more of barely anything."

Also jus for future reference bcuz we paranoid:

Jeanne, while I get your vote early, both of you are still arguing hypothethicals. You're letting scum coast and not providing solid reasons for your read. Let's take a chill pill and let Elbrin LQ BM and RR hang themselves by trying to lurk it out.

Elbirn, I can see as Scum here. BM IDK. RR is pretty Null to me.

RR seems the most reasonable by far.

You make a good point that the reasoning that RR has is sound, however, I think that it can be fabricated. Tonally, RR is prolly a read that will show itself later in the game... I don't know if you understand that or not, but I feel its a thing and end game is a whole nother ball game altogether. I'm waiting to see what kind of tonal reads I can get from RR later in the game when the stakes are raised if you get what I'm saying.

Spoiler: fullpost

I think his reasoning is sound. post 652 and post 712 highlight good thinking and reasoning that suggests motives behind the situation. A scum would not have to punch holes in the plan of someone else, we could all see that the gambit with Elbrin, Titus, Jeanne and Suzune failed. However, the logic used to explain it was well done and he listened to Jeanne's outbursts and responded in kind. I think that Drixx's frustration was well placed and his explanations were tone appropriate.

LQ we have bumped heads in the past at the best way to read people and to understand who is town and who is not. Last time it was under the gaze of Suzune as mafia and LQ as town. I believe that this time we might be looking at this from the opposite perspective. However, regardless of my alignment I look at and read people in the same way, I am unsure whether that is true for you. However, I am certain that we do not look for the same things. I find it hard to imagine, regardless of what Titus says about roles, that a mediator kind of roll feel into the hands of a mafia. Now, as a third party I can understand that, however usually unless they have a specialized win condition that kind of third party role seeks to aid one faction or the other, typically the town. We have used them before in other games, we called it being asked to tea, coming to the party, the chef, all kinds of favourful language. Therefore those invited or those communicated with could end up not town.

This is something to consider. I have more interesting cards in my hand because I was invited. However, I think that unless Titus is running a very powerful gambit and it if it works then my hat is off to him. Thus I added a few people to my pile of who I think must be townies based on what I already knew. From there I narrowed the field to what other people were thinking and how they were reacting. While I think the in game gambit failed, I think it is possible that some results were yielded even thought they were not the intended ones.

Scum are not creatures that can be found or hidden in flavourful language, however I have a hard time reading jokes and other play on words. Therefore, I tend to read what people say and how they react to the information given. People cannot help the context clues that give through interaction. People you know really well you fear will see through you so your interaction is more strained this is why it is hard to play when you are friends with a lot of people in game. It is harder to keep up a deception because of the way your words sound. Thus, I think there are no reads as simple as well articulated but it was the point that was made and the reaction people had too it that tips me. Sure it is possible that RR is mafia, however, at this current moment I do not think so.

First off, congrats on the wall post; I don't think I've seen you do that before. Obviously we are reading things completely different. You make a good point that the reasoning that RR has is sound, however, I think that it can be fabricated. Tonally, RR is prolly a read that will show itself later in the game... I don't know if you understand that or not, but I feel its a thing and end game is a whole nother ball game altogether. I'm waiting to see what kind of tonal reads I can get from RR later in the game when the stakes are raised if you get what I'm saying. Furthermore, I do not believe that it is entirely possible to read people the same way as Town and Scum. There is just too much of a psychological impact on the player when they are Scum to have the same kind of outlook that they would have as Town.

I don't buy for a second that titus has an uber powerful gambit at this stage of the game - I just don't. I don't know at all how to read what Titus is actually trying to say with this "gambit". Its only likely that its a Scum tactic if the "gambit" was meant to fail all along and such a thing is plausible, but unlikely. I disagree about the part about "keeping up appearances". It really is a matter of who the person is and what their outlook is on things. Its a matter of how competitive they are vs. how much they value their friendship with those people. I'd go into a rant saying I think I'm good at keeping up appearances but the reasons I would give might take the wind out of this threads sails, so I wont.

As far as all that goes, I'm just going to assume its a way to gauge what I say to get a read out of me, so that is why I obliged giving my thoughts on this. you may very well could have expected me to go a different direction. All I would have to say to that is that I enjoy a discussion on these types of things from time to time and while I don't know if its going to get us any closer to reading each other, I feel its still appropriate to talk about since it still largely revolves around reading people and that is fair game to talk about in a game thread IMO.

[FireKari]

@Ranger Can your roleblock prevent day actions?

No, which is why I knew wgeurts's dayvig on me was fake.

Wut?? x,X

~Yukari

[FireKari]

@Ranger
Also, we think the ability you described could have been better utilized if you had not revealed.