Micro 542: Five Nights at Freddy's Good End.
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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VOTE: Vedith
You're not gonna put your first vote on me this time?"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I don't disbelieve Flow Alpha's claim but he needs to explain the mixup and why exactly he thought it was a good idea to claim, because I see nothing there that we needed to know right now.
In post 27, Anatole Kuragin wrote:I think we should lynch GuiltyLion. Thoughts?
Let's not. Though I appreciate your effort to wind me up. What do you think of Flow's claim?"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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It's too bad I'm not a jester otherwise this would have been a legendary win"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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lane, do you think Anatole's posts are meant to be fully serious?
And why would I claim because of a page 2 wagon without intent to hammer?"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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29 with respect to the bad vibes may have been slightly serious, but I doubt he would have actually wanted me immediately lynched off of one post.
Push on Zzzx looks like it's more for the sake of discussion than because of Zzzx in particular. I'd like to see how he responds to Zzzx's reaction."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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The thing with Flow Alpha's claim is that it only hurts town by claiming it, because scum can NK him and scramble the votes / skip a night. If he survives a few days then he's probably scum lying, but until then his claim is probably true. Vedith is spot on in 104.
This wagon on Anatole is terrible, it is ridiculous to assume he actually wanted me lynched based off of one post. If my reaction gave him town vibes, then his unvote and move to ZZZX makes sense. If there's scum on the wagon I think it's either ZZZX or Marge.
VOTE: ZZZX"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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also Flow sorry if my post comes off as angry towards you, did not mean it that way at all, more just incredulous that he just got lynched."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I never said he isn't scum, I just think 20 posts from him isn't enough to have a strong read and that hammering 5 pages into the game is ridiculous."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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All I said was the reasons for voting him were bad and IF there was scum on his wagon, I had two potential suspects. This is a slow game, I'm not one to make rash judgments."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Davsto, what are your thoughts on that wagon yesterday? It all happened while you were gone.
Flow, Anatole flipped town. Explain yourself. That kind of quickhammer on town is almost in PL territory."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Well I am townreading Lane at the time, I liked his aggressive lines of questioning and 51 struck me as a particularly insightful pro-town point. Vedith I thought was likely town due to 71 and his subsequent back and forth with Anatole, as well as his callout of L-1. So since I had two townleans on the wagon, I was looking at the other two.
ZZZX's vote was basically an OMGUS, not really strongly indicative of alignment, I have basically a nullread there. So he could still be scum.
Your vote came along with this reasoning:
In post 95, Marge wrote:Anatole's unvote and reasoning looks like he is just making excuses. When I originally read Anatole's vote on ZZZX it read pretty fake. He wasattackingZZZX for 1 post when others where trying to be more serious he looked to be doing more joking around with his post. Add to that since his vote his scum read is now based on ZZZX attack on him, which is null. He also didn't explain why ZZZX lack of post was scummy. I think he is just holding onto that as an excuse.
Which is pretty reachy. The vote on ZZZX didn't seem fake to me at all, it's obvious Anatole was satisfied with my response to pressure and wanted to look at someone who was on my wagon. Next, "attacking" is way too strong of a word for Anatole's post. This whole paragraph is extremely uncharitable and you weren't very cautious at putting Anatole to L-1, both of which make my scumdar start to beep a little bit. I voted ZZZX because I thought I could get more out of pushing on him at the time, considering Anatole had also voted him.
Keep in mind though all of these reads are rather weak because we barely had time to discuss anything yesterday."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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EBWOP - was* townreading Lane at the time - he's still probably a townread but I'd like to see how his D2 develops"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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^Shiro is definitely town
also happy birthday Lane!"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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ZZZX how do you plan on developing your reads?"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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In post 128, Davsto wrote:The reasons seemed good enough but man, that hammer was bad.
So are you scumreading Flow Alpha then?
And where is Flow Alpha? I feel like we need a post from him to kick the game into gear."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I wouldn't be surprised if Flow has some kind of jester role, his play has been terribad and he's clearly not giving any sort of effort. If we have a vig I highly support killing Flow ASAP. I'm okay with ending the day on a Flow lynch if we have to but right now it feels a bit too easy.
There's a lot of null for me here, I see things of both alignments in Marge, and ZZZX and Davsto don't seem to want to look into people. ZZZX I don't blame you for not having reads but I do blame you for not bothering to develop them.
VOTE: ZZZX"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Lane why the townread on Davsto? He seems a little disengaged from the game."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Also we should probably keep people off of L-1 unless you reaaaally want them lynched, in case Flow derphammers again. Just saying cause another vote on ZZZX would put him at L-1."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Don't like the push on Shiro. Post didn't look fake to me at all.
I still think it's more likely Flow is a jester than either scum or beloved princess, but I do agree with the idea that if Flow is what he says he is, then town must have some kind of powerful counter to help compensate for losing a "night" (day in most games) entirely. I'd really rather push on other people for now, even if he is scum then he has a partner.
It is confusing why he didn't die though, if he's not scum then maybe scum figured he'd be an easy lynch?
Scumpool for me (ignoring the Flow nebula of confusion) is {Davsto, Marge, ZZZX}. Davsto/Marge seemed fine to throw shade on Shiro without asking for followup or moving their votes to a less convenient target than Flow.
Flow- so when you die does anything happen to the vote counts?
In post 203, Marge wrote:I agree with lane about shiro' reaction considering others voted flow and he said nothing then about the votes.
Which votes in which posts? This feels like a reach/misrep.
VOTE: Marge"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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In post 212, Marge wrote:If you think shiro' comment was sincere, guilty lion, why did he get only outraged on my comment and not the votes placed on flow prior to my comment?
My thinking was that Flow only doubled down on his claim after Lane pressed him about it more. Lane had already unvoted Flow and Davsto hadn't posted yet since. So the two "votes" were really just Davsto's leftover vote from when Flow tried to justify his hammer. You were the first one to say you still wanted to lynch Flow, after he reiterated his initial claim from page 1.
You're acting like Shiro is nitpicking at you, but there's no reason Shiro should have been focusing on those other two votes beforehand because they came under an entirely different context, and one of them was already retracted. Your reaction feels both defensive and like it's reaching to assign scum-motivation to Shiro."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Okay, how is 185 "freak"ing? Seriously, quote that post and tell me where the scum-motivation in it is.
Don't kill my townread on you, Lane
It's like you're assuming Shiro is scum because:
1) Their post had "WTF" in it
2) you think Flow is scum and Shiro is a possible partner"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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In post 219, lane0168 wrote:Or rather marge agreed with me.
Right, this is what I'm wary of. Davsto and Marge both nudging people in the direction of scum!Shiro without doing any work to develop their own read on Shiro, or even put a vote down that we'll be able to track later.
I do like Davsto's conviction about lynching Flow, and I think something about his playstyle makes me just tend to scumread him. I wish he'd look more at the other players but he's probably last on my suspect list for now, would much rather push Marge or ZZZX today."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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In post 226, Marge wrote:Not sure if you missed it or what but flow already claimed day 1 to be a beloved princess
people lie on D1 all the time, and then Shiro claimed to have missed it.
In post 229, Marge wrote:But the reaction from shiro was fake still because again others voted for flow, he acknowledged those votes on flow but doesn't question those voting flow.
I already told you, those votes were pre-Flow doubling down on the claim, and one of them was already unvoted. You're misrepping pretty hard here, Shiro never acknowledged the votes on Flow.
Happier with my vote by the second."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Because I think your half-push on him was scummy."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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e_e the OMGUS is so real right now.
Marge if you push this, you will lose
As if I would play this way on a scumteam with Shiro. Pfft."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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You can't accuse me of WKing and then also being on a scumteam with Shiro. And I'm pointing out that it was scummy of you to casually suggest Shiro is scum for weak reasons without interacting with Shiro or moving your vote. THAT'S what's scummy."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Margeremember when you posted a meme about Anatole? How'd that push turn out for you?
And you keep ignoring the key point - there was ONE vote on Flow at the time Shiro posted, and it was from Davsto pre-Flow-claiming-D2. That's entirely different than you saying you want to vote FlowafterFlow doubled down on his claim.
To say Shiro is "ignoring votes" on Flow is a misrep. That's what's scummy. The reason your reaction is different than Lane's is because Lane immediately asks Shiro about this inconsistency and voted her. That's a town reaction. You, on the other hand, just sheep Lane in saying it was scummy, but don't bother to vote or add any of your own opinions. That's what scum does.
Lane, yes, I agree Shiro either missed or didn't comment on those claims. But think about it on a deeper level - do you think scum!Shiro would really choose not to comment on it the first time, and then decide to only push on it after Marge makes a comment after the 4th claim? It'd be blatantly obvious that their push isn't consistent with how players were treating the claim beforehand. Shiro is getting called out on it. How does that benefit scum!Shiro?
You guys just take something that someone does that you don't understand and assume it must be coming from scum. That's a poor way to scumhunt and will lead to townies getting lynched."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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also it's convenient now that I can be scum in Marge's POV regardless of what Marge thinks of Shiro's alignment."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Marge how is that post in any way relevant to this conversation? It's not that you sheeped lane, it's that you encouraged his idea that Shiro was scummy without ever voting or interacting with Shiro yourself.
And look! I scumread Kop for the exact same thing in thevery post that you linked to!
In post 461, GuiltyLion wrote:I don't really see consistent behavior here. Kop has voted for Not_Mafia, Vedith,encouraged a Fox lynch without ever voting it, then back to Not_Mafia, now onto ASP."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Marge: do you think Shiro is scum? Yes or no answer."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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so Marge you think Shiro is scum and that I am the partner. Why would I defend my partner so obviously? That's literally terrible scum play.
My case on Marge: calling other people scummy without poking at them or voting them is a scummy thing to do because it creates a general narrative that a person is scum without you having to be tied to that narrative. Marge isn't trying to solve the game, she's just pushing people as scum for doing things she doesn't like. Her point that Shiro is scum because 'why call me out when there were voteSon Flow' is both a misrep and defensive.
Marge's case on me: I defended someone I'm townreading that she thinks is scum, therefore I am the scumbuddy.
It's obvious that my point here is far better."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I still think literally nothing in 185 is alignment indicative, but whatever agree to disagree. How do you not see the difference in how you reacted vs how Marge reacted?
I do agree on the lack of activity. ZZZX is on V/LA but I really hope he at least has scumreads by page 11. I dunno what happened to Davsto.
I'm down to lynch flow at the end of the day, I just want to poke around at other people more in the meantime. When I die it will help whoever's left afterwards.
On the vent claim - that's something else I was thinking about. We've seen two town flips, both were animatronics. I am also an animatronic. I think there are enough antagonist characters in the series to be all town, Vent is a weird neutral thing rather than a character in the game. But that is kind of assuming that we can flavor-break this game, which may be just a waste of time."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Also if Flow doesn't affect vote counts at all then why did he say he did with his first version of the claim?"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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WKing = white knighting, it's when scum defends a townie who is going to get lynched because they know the person is town and scum will get towncred for it afterwards."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I don't feel the need to explain my townread on Shiro to you Marge. Explaining townreads is a waste of time, I've found. Explaining scumreads is what's useful because that might actually get scum lynched.
What's important is that everyone knows my view on Shiro. You've called Shiro a liar and said my defense of Shiro is scummy but refused to give an actual read on Shiro."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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@ZZZX- please do not hammer Flow unless Marge or Flow takes a vote off of me. I have a mechanic with my role that comes into play if I enter "day" phase with more than one vote on me and I'd rather avoid that.
@Marge, @Flow, if we're not gonna lynch me then it helps town if one of you takes a vote off of me."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Wait unless Lane's vote isn't on flow yet in which case I look like an idiot"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Yeah it kind of hurts town if I have to explain which is why I avoided bringing it up for the most part. It shouldn't really matter (especially after today), just know that it hurts town if I have 2 or more votes when somebody else gets lynched.
I got superD1 when flow was the quickhammer hah.lucky
I'm more okay with lynching flow since he admitted he lied about the vote scrambling thing, but no one seems really opposed to it which is weird.Last edited by Lucky2u on Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I'm still wagering he's a neutral jester, which we will need to get rid of at some point but I doubt he'd play this way as scum"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Do we lose if we lynch a jester? I dunno I thought jesters normally just get their own win and the game goes on, assuming that's what he is.
In any case the lie about claim + quickhammer make him a liability, regardless of what he actually is.
Lane what do I gain from making that up? It only affects me if we're not lynching me. if Marge is okay with a Flow lynch then she shouldn't care about unvoting me before he gets hammered"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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Davsto can I ask you for your reads outside of Flow?"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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In post 317, Marge wrote:
1) I think your town read on shiro is fake, which I said. You can tell me you can't explain it, I say it doesn't exsist.
2) if your claim is true what did you day 1
1. It's not fake. I just don't feel like taking the time to convince you of my read, especially since I suspect you'll just spin it into me being scummy somehow.
2) Don't worry, it'll all make sense after my flip And the way you are playing is making it very likely that you'll be lynched when I do. So regardless of your alignment, this line of questioning is terrible for you.
In post 318, Marge wrote:
If he was telling the truth about some weak princess role then why no push on flow after his claim?
I didn't bother to push on Flow because I'm trying to look at other players. Flow has a very high chance of being lynched today, regardless of whether I'm pushing him or not. So I find it more productive to do other things with my time today.
If I also pushed Flow, we would have speedlynched Flow after that derphammer D1 and what would that get us? At best, a lynched scum with absolutely no clue who the partner is. It's pro-town for all of us to be talking to eachother and forming other associations outside of Flow."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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oh look, I was right about Shiro being town. Maybe now you'll believe me about ZZZX being town too.
Scum definitely bussed Flow Alpha, the question is which bus was most likely to be scum. Davsto essentially guaranteed he'd be the lynch, which is preeettyyy likely to be town, but I wouldn't rule it out as a bus completely. Lane stuck on Flow most of the day too and remains my strongest townread. Marge didn't vote him initially and tried to make Shiro look scummy for ignoring Dav and Lane votes. She's still my top scumpick.
VOTE: Marge"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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EBWOP - which vote was most likely to be scum"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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LOL I'm a cop, I'll just claim it now since it apparently wasn't obvious enough for you."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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Investigated Shiro n1 because 55 was a super sketchy looking post.
Investigated ZZZX n2 because he's a lurksack and had no chance of dying last night.
I trust myself to get my scumreads lynched, so I investigate players that I'm null on or doubting my townread. I don't investigate my scumreads.
Look, if anyone doubts my claim, then you should deal with me in LYLO. Lynching a claimed cop before then is mathematically an incorrect play because it only widens your scumpool and guarantees ZZZX dies tonight. Voting a cop claim is hilariously anti-town."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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To be frank, I don't really care whether you believe me or not, I've guaranteed that there will be a conftown player if we go to LyLo, either ZZZX or the player I have a clear on.
And setting aside the truth of my claim, it is a mathematically incorrect play to lynch me today. Here's why:
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World where GL gets lynched today
If I am scum - town wins.
If I am town - ZZZX dies tonight, and LYLO is {Davsto, Marge, Lane}. There are three possible lynches, only one of them is correct. So there are two worlds where scum wins and one world where town wins.
In total - four worlds, two of them town wins, two of them scum wins.50% chance of victory.
But note that this logic applies to literally any player in the game, because we have 2 possible lynches and a lynchpool of 4 (because we remove the D3 NK from the pool).
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World where GL does not get lynched today
If we do not lynch me today, we believe my claim, and therefore we do not lynch ZZZX either. Lynchpool is {Davsto, Marge, Lane}
Therefore, there is one world where we lynch scum and win.
Two worlds where we lynch town and go into LYLO.
In both worlds, either ZZZX will die or I will die. If ZZZX dies, then whoever I have cleared N3 is conftown. If I die, then ZZZX is conftown. So the D3 NK is irrelevant, the point is that there will be a conftown player in LYLO.
So in both worlds, there are two further worlds, one where scum wins and one where town wins.
In total - five possible worlds, three where town wins, two where scum wins.60% chance of victory.
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Conclusion
Lynching me today literally decreases your chance of winning by 10%, regardless of whether I am telling the truth or not.
And I can tell you that it would actually decrease your chances of winning by far more, because my claim is true and so we rule out world 1 in the first scenario, but it's up to you whether you believe that or not.
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Davsto doubting my claim like this is weird. I am okay with either a Davsto lynch or a Marge lynch, prefer Marge lynch but I'll let Lane and ZZZX decide."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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If that math doesn't make sense to you, just think about it this way - there will be a conftown player in LYLO unless you lynch me today.
Davsto, are you serious? Numbers don't lie. Towns would do far better overall if they considered theactual probabilitiesof what they are thinking. Too many times I see people just bullshit "I think either [x] or [y] is scum" when it's strictly unlikely that such a statement is true. Looking at the game analytically both introduces a lot more healthy skepticism, and also tells you when something is the right call."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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You're introducing all sorts of weird speculation specifically to cast doubt on my claim. Why would there be a roleblocker just because there is a cop? Anyone who claims "Doc" in LYLO is not conftown, because they could just make it up on the spot. It's a closed setup."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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And if there isn't a doc, then ZZZX dies and you're in LyLo with Marge and Lane. I have no idea why that's preferable to picking between Marge and Lane today."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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Davsto, the way you are approaching this is even more dense than what Marge was doing, and makes me inclined to believe that you are scum.
VOTE: Davsto
Lane - you are exactly right. I will full claim - I am . I can investigate someone each night, as long as my 'music box' is not wound up. My music box is wound up if the night ends with more than 1 vote on me.
I crumbed this in my second post:
In post 33, GuiltyLion wrote:I don't disbelieve Flow Alpha's claim but he needs to explain the mixup and why exactly he thought it was a good idea to claim, because I see nothing there that we needed to know right now.
In post 27, Anatole Kuragin wrote:I think we should lynch GuiltyLion. Thoughts?
Let's not.Though I appreciate your effort to wind me up. What do you think of Flow's claim?"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Like Davsto your reasoning is ATROCIOUS. I promise you you will lynch me, I will flip town cop, ZZZX will die, and then you will have to choose between Marge and Lane. Whereas instead if you believe my claim, the choice for you right now would be between Marge and Lane. Congrats, you've completely wasted D3 and ruined town's chances of victory."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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There's just no way Dav's mindset comes from town."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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If you want to lynch me, then you should lynch me in LYLO, because there will be a conftown that I will refuse to lynch. Lynching me today is unarguably a terrible play and I'm blown away that town!Davsto wouldn't see that. Note that Marge was immediately receptive to the point I made.
My claim was not premature. It's the correct play to guarantee that there is conftown in LyLo. I could have played the subtle game and crumbed all day that ZZZX was town, but I was kinda sick of doing that yesterday and I figured if I got in risk of being lynched I'd just have to claim regardless, at which point there'd be more skepticism because I didn't claim immediately."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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like there was no way Marge was gonna let me go with a ZZZX townread unexplained, so I just cut that discussion short."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"