Blitz 3: Dead of Winter Mafia - Game Over

[davesaz]

More for tradition's sake than anything else...
VOTE: Davsto

Wow, fast start. TBH getting real content within the first 1-2 pages is refreshing after seeing many games with RVS that goes on for 10+.
I'm working and do not have time to analyze the early content. Maybe in a few hours. Not like I'm known for snap reads anyway.

[davesaz]

Before i forget

UNVOTE: Davesto to keep the daves even.

This pings scum a bit. Are you concerned about balance like this often?

[davesaz]

I can't vote for Pisskop anyway..

the puppies..

Thoughts on Pisskop's posting so far?

[davesaz]

Doesn't 23 acknowledge that you think we're kinda out of RVS now?

[davesaz]

My observation on Pisskop is that his alignment is usually opposite my natural read -- the townier he looks, the more likely to be scum.
The way my luck runs, as soon as I switch to reading him that way he'll start acting townie when town.

[davesaz]

More for tradition's sake than anything else...
VOTE: Davsto

Wow, fast start. TBH getting real content within the first 1-2 pages is refreshing after seeing many games with RVS that goes on for 10+.
I'm working and do not have time to analyze the early content. Maybe in a few hours. Not like I'm known for snap reads anyway.

So you like me trying to get out of RVS, and then put down a random vote?

I saw the RVS comment from Makoto Nanaya about evening out the Daves and wanted to test what would happen if I followed it up. It wasn't really random, but it needed to look random in order to be a valid test. Being a little annoyed at having to explain that it was a joke seems town. Weak but in a game this quick we'll need every indicator we can get.

Who is your number one scumread?

You had been, but it was far from strong. I got more defensiveness from reading your posts than I'd expect for the subject matter. I need to evaluate this recent string of posts. Lots of questions might be a good sign, but only if they aren't manipulative, which remains to be seen.

I'm also looking at hiphop for that entrance. It feels like scum waiting for a wagon to develop. The_Jester's "haven't received a PM" thing could be honest or it could also be an excuse for sitting back and watching for a place to jump in.

[davesaz]

Why was I your number one scumread?

I got more defensiveness from reading your posts than I'd expect for the subject matter. This was in the post you quoted.

Side note: found out if you hilight part of a post and hit the quote button, the quote only includes that part. This is windows and chrome, ymmv.

[davesaz]

Not a lot of things happening in this game anyway.

VOTE: gameplay506
Plenty going on and avoiding it is just wrong, especially with short days.

[davesaz]

It's a playstyle thing. Some people are confrontational, others use a more oblique approach. The trick is reading how people respond.
Lots of game links available on my wiki page, feel free to compare.

[davesaz]

We dont have enough good contacts yet.

I've read this several times and am having trouble figuring out what you mean.

[davesaz]

Hereee will read this later

You are aware this is a blitz game and deadline is now less than 24 hours, right?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Makoto
My main suspect, mostly gut but I don't like that she posts almost exclusively fluff, tries to look useful but really isn't, doesn't take decisive stances. Looks like cautious newbscum to me.
If this wagon doesn't gain traction I'm gonna switch but I'm the most comfortable with my vote there atm.
This has to do for the time being.

First question, have you read all of Mokoto's posts? The question goes to the newbscum angle.

TBH I would have to reread to confirm the observation you're making here. But for the sake of argument let's stipulate your characterization of the posts is accurate (if it's inaccurate then we have a different problem and it is you). Is being fluffy and not taking stances really alignment indicative? I have seen others say that gut means you see something wrong but can't put a finger on it, so let's explore that a bit. If there is a plausible scum motivation for being fluffy in this case then you might just be onto something. Perhaps the lack of a definitive stance you're seeing rings alarm bells because of what else is going on at the time. Does that jog help you with defining it better?

[davesaz]

VOTE: klingon

deadline coming, best lynch available i think.

Would you care to expand on the why it's the best lynch?

[davesaz]

Sorry, busy day. Catching up. (that's weird sounding for just a few hours of gap, but it feels like things are flying by)

I see no reason to think Klingoncelt's play as scummy. I see her as using the available limited tools in a town motivated way. A lynch there would IMO be policy to remove the distraction and nothing more. Faking a post restriction as scum is such a huge risk I don't see her doing that.

I can see why some players would consider gameplay a policy lynch. I don't happen to agree because I can't think of a reason town would play that way on purpose on short deadlines. If it's a time availability thing, either say that up front or replace out so someone can actively play the game.

Despite having opposite opinions on quite a few things, I think Expedience is likely to be town. The thought process shows a strong push to solve the game.

[davesaz]

The only post by hiplop after my question on his KC vote was to say it's policy. Not liking that at all.

[davesaz]

Jester didn't post after my question but has a V/LA sign up.
As far as I can tell, nobody paid any attention to it other than to characterize it as pointed (and maybe leading).
Makoto alt slipped, indicating probably not a newb. Hence the point of asking whether Jester had read all of the relevant posts.
I have Jester as weak town for calling out Makoto for fluff, with a little bit of doubt based on the newb thing.

[davesaz]

Speaking of Makoto, doing one post per player is a little weird but I can't really call it scummy per se.
I'm not very impressed with the contents of those posts though. Weak scum read based on high noise to signal ratio.

Pisskop seems pretty scummy, lots of information but practically no conclusions to speak of. Based on past experiences that probably means he's town. This is very weak though, and I don't see myself being really patient if it continues.

[davesaz]

I think were waiting for the other players to come by. You know its Sunday, rite?

Can you post some reads or something? It's creeping me out for you to not really be giving any. Sure, a comment here or there about the current game state but it lacks the cohesion that I'm used to seeing.

[davesaz]

So first things first, gameplay is probably town. If I had to guess, the scum are trying to force us into a second D1 with that No kill.

I agree. The reason why is:

Either gamplay is unlynchable. And unlynchable scum cannot exist I think.

or

He have two lifes or more. Scum could also have two lifes so in itself this don't point to him being town.

The way gameplay played day 1 though makes me believe he baited the lynch on himself to "confrim" himself as town. If scum got two lifes or more my guess is that they would have saved it for as long as possible and not intentionally get themselves lynched day one (gameplays playstyle day 1 was to me so anti-town that I think he did it intentionaly).

Why would it be good for either alignment to get lynched on purpose?

[davesaz]

eww. Dave suddenly in this one game takes offense at my playstyle.

I don't remember this degree of reticence on giving reads. The rest of it is bog standard, right down to the cheek in every other post.

[davesaz]

Reformatted slightly to make reply easier.

b) If I was scum I would have just no lynched instead of staying up off hours to ensure a lynch and
c) double vote for scum acts like 3 scum for balancing and 11 v 3 would be op as hell but sure stay in that world.

b. Scum will take a mislynch over a no-lynch any day. So saying you can't be scum with gameplay town is just a plain bad argument.
c. 13p open games are almost always 10v3, aren't they? And micros are 9p with 7v2. 11v2 is normally townsided unless scum have something to help them. So saying being a double voter means you can't be scum is a bad argument too.

[davesaz]

Pedit: in reply to Expedience's question...

I played a mafia-aligned lawyer role in a very large multiball game on another site. That was my only experience with an unlynchable mechanic, and it was to benefit scum.
Here, I don't think it is proof, but it should count for something as evidence in that direction.
I'd like to see Gameplay's explanation, if he has one.

The flaws in ARS's argument that I pointed out tell me that he's not cleared by the double vote. I would not expect them to be aligned together unless the 2nd vote ends day without actually causing a lynch. That's pure speculation and I'd much rather see more tangible evidence.

@ARS: Diversifying discussion is good for town. We may come back to the same conclusion as before, but we should use the time we have to improve our reads. I would see a quick lynch as absolutely antitown at this point.

[davesaz]

I'm a little surprised to see so many people making assumptions about who the missing NK target was. That kind of talk has potential to help scum by giving them insight on which players might get protection.

In reply to the question I was asked, I see both ARS and gameplay as weak scum reads, but the chance of them being scum together is very remote.

[davesaz]

So if I'm hearing you correctly, what you're trying to say is not that the double vote makes ARS scum, but just that it doesn't make him 100% completely confirmed town. Are you currently scumreading ARS?

I don't think that I had closely read 355 at the point in time I posted 359. I p-edited the response to the diversification comment because it caught my eye on preview. ARS's comments about Titus's "mod-meta" have me rethinking the assumption that the double voter role is more likely to be scum in this setup. I need to re-read other stuff.

[davesaz]

VOTE: gameplay506

[davesaz]

Eh?

[davesaz]

Expedience, thanks for the link. Saves us from needing to search it.
Thinking on Fire's claim.

[davesaz]

Ranger, why the townread on Firebringer?

[davesaz]

Note, I plan to post a read change on Fire but want to see Ranger's reason first since I don't remember one being posted.

[davesaz]

I don't see manipulation from Expidence. What prompts your reservations?

[davesaz]

OK, what I saw from Fire was "mortals" can't. That implies to me that zombies can, which implies town.
UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

I think pisskop's "guilty" is reasonably likely to be correct.

[davesaz]

Okay, I can talk normally now!!!!

Why was expedience killed?
That a vigi?

I was scumreading Expediance. That was definitely a odd kill.

Did you read the flavor? Though I'm not sure it will reflect events with accuracy...

[davesaz]

I didn't visit.

Care to offer a reason?

[davesaz]

I thought Makoto was scummy from the start, but let myself be talked into thinking it was playstyle. The "balance" thing when we were arguably out of RVS, generally high noise to signal ratio, and making reads posts on every player just doesn't look town at all. Given there seems to be a result that's equivalent to a guilty...
VOTE: Makoto
Half my family is sick and I have an event on Saturday. I don't know if it will keep me from posting or what it will do to the timing. Might as well do this now just in case things blow up at home.

[davesaz]

We had a good chance up to the point where a gun landed in the hands of someone who always scum reads me.

[davesaz]

I would have approached that wincon (be the 2nd vote) by immediately 2nd voting each player as the opportunity presented itself. Though that may only be possible for a constantly active player. And you're at the mercy of someone voting each player first -- if your (unknown) lover is never voted then you're screwed.

[davesaz]

One of the challenges for scum in this setup is not to let on that you know a strange action is a secondary wincon.