Scumleague FF 2015 (Locke, Yiley, TD37!)

[Locke Lamora]

Unfortunately it doesn't (assuming I haven't misread the table). After the division lead is settled, all tiebreakers go to total points first (and this is really all that matters with decimal scoring). That means you can beat Cow this week, he could lose next week, and you can still finish behind him at 6-8 if he covers the winning margin in your matchup plus three. Not only that, but it's possible for both Kmd and IS to finish 6-8, and they would beat any 6-8 team in your division unless there are some really weird scoring games, which would likely leave two teams in Voodoo going down. Panzer can technically escape too ahead of you even if you win this week, although given the attention paid to his lineup, that seems less likely.

[PokerFace]

League 2 playoff clinched teams: Peg

League 2 teams that could make playoffs and can't be regulated: DDDP, Wraith, Rhinox, Yiley, Me

Four teams in our league have 8 or more losses. Thus teams, that can't get 8 losses, are safe^

League 2 teams still in danger of regulation: Zach, Jason T, Khan, BS 2000, Mith, Llama

[zoraster]

Unfortunately it doesn't (assuming I haven't misread the table). After the division lead is settled, all tiebreakers go to total points first (and this is really all that matters with decimal scoring). That means you can beat Cow this week, he could lose next week, and you can still finish behind him at 6-8 if he covers the winning margin in your matchup plus three. Not only that, but it's possible for both Kmd and IS to finish 6-8, and they would beat any 6-8 team in your division unless there are some really weird scoring games, which would likely leave two teams in Voodoo going down. Panzer can technically escape too ahead of you even if you win this week, although given the attention paid to his lineup, that seems less likely.

ohhh right. i forgot we have a week 14.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, that makes more sense. I play in more leagues that do go to Week 14 regular season now than not, so I forget 13 is more common.

[PokerFace]

I did factor in 14 games when i posed earlier. I also posted team owners based on their current standing with the exception of Peg who is ranked 4th overall but has already clinched

The 6 teams in danger of regulation are 5-7, 5-7, 4-8, 3-9, 3-9, 3-9.

llama and mith have 3-9 and play each other week 13. The looser of that game is gauranteed regulation. The winner may or may not be regulated gonna depend on their week 14 play

no other regulation guarantees exist among those 6 teams so each of them has a chance at avoiding regulation

[T-Bone]

SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE

[PokerFace]

This is how I feel about my playoff hopes. Odds are against me but its not impossible

[Locke Lamora]

You can do it T-Bone! Just looking for 160 points this week and at least 3 of the 5-7 teams to lose. Easy.

[Kmd4390]

I'm starting to legitimately think I have a slight hope to not get relegated. I have my total points working for me. All I have to do is upset the top team in the leavgues and win another tough one after that and as long as everything else plays out in my favor, I can finish 7th or 8th.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Reading through DDDP's posts and the post above this, lead me to the conclusion we should get rid of divisions

Well yeah, it's asinine that a 7-5 team should have a playoff spot clinched when four teams with better records exist and don't have playoff spots locked up. Especially since it makes a mockery of the unbalanced schedule argument; PEG and I have literally played an identical schedule to this point other than our match between each other and one additional game (both against a 3-9 team); the one game difference warrants overriding my three game lead in record?

Now think if we had these exact same schedules but didn't have divisions: instead of PEG having the luck of the draw to be thrown into the easy division and already snatched a playoff spot instead PEG would have a slightly easier schedule down the stretch run and we'd be wondering if he could convert that schedule into the wins he'd need to grab the three or four seed with some losses elsewhere. It's not perfect because the schedule is unbalanced but it's a whole lot better than the status quo.

[Kmd4390]

The idea of divisions isn't that they are more fair (although I've learned from this thread that some people think they are?). It's that it's more fun. If you are 6-6 and there is no shot at making the playoffs, but you're pretty safe from relegation, you might get careless. Because why bother? But if you are 6-6 and tied for a division lead, you're going right down to the wire. Championships tend to go to teams that deserve it most of the time anyway. But yeah, just like the fact that we play head to head and not roto, it's just more fun. Even the relegation system adds to it. I mean, I'm 4-8 and I care more about this league than most of my others right now. If it didn't matter, I probably wouldn't have just won against Rob because I'd leave the better pickups for the past month to people who have a shot to do something and focus on my teams that are in playoff races right now. I mean, yeah, I always play to win. But I put extra time in where I really care.

[Locke Lamora]

I'll save the actual score updates for Thursday as usual, but here are the L1 updated playoff odds based on the provisional scores:

Playoff:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 100.00%
Mr Toad's Wild Ride 100.00%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 68.76%
Tally Whackers 49.08%
Rob 30.98%
Wrath of Romo 28.78%
Heifer Skelter 17.18%
Mask of Zorotter 5.22%

Myself (11-1) and Flameaxe (9-3) have obviously clinched, and I just need one win or one Flameaxe loss for the 1 seed. AGar (7-5) can still win the division but needs to win out and hope for a T-Bone victory over Flameaxe, which would give him the division on a tiebreaker. He also needs to win to hold off Rob (6-6) for the wild card, who has the highest point total, 65 more than AGar, so would likely be the wild card in the event of a tie. Tally (6-6) holds the best divisional record and therefore currently possesses the fourth playoff spot over Cow, whose 1-3 divisional record and lowest points total in the Voodoo division actually means that the simulation thinks Nero (5-7) has a better shot of making the playoffs than Cow. Zoraster (5-7) also has a shot, but suffers from barely having more points than Cow, so his best bet is a Cow victory over Nero and two Tally losses, allowing him to take the division on the tiebreaker over Cow.

Relegation:

Bone's Scum-Boners 100.00%
InstaGraham 87.36%
KMD's Raiders 73.64%
Mask of Zorotter 48.84%
Beavers Love Wood 39.64%
Wrath of Romo 23.06%
Heifer Skelter 22.02%
Tally Whackers 5.40%
Rob 0.04%

Although it's mathematically possible for T-Bone (3-8) to not get relegated, it didn't happen once in 5000 simulations, as he not only needs to win out with huge scores but also has to rely on almost all of the 5-7 teams to keep losing, and the sim just accounts for teams being exactly as good as they've been so far. Panzer (5-7) has a higher relegation chance than Kmd (4-8) because while the sim doesn't know he keeps not setting his lineup, it does know that his points total is terrible and is unlikely to win either game or any tiebreakers. Kmd will face IS (5-7) in a crunch Week 14 matchup, which may be a loser gets relegated situation, as they both have significant points advantages over the Voodoo and mith relegation candidates. This also demonstrates the tight race in Voodoo, with even division leader Tally having more than a 5% chance of going down, while the sim continues to insist that Rob can get relegated, which happened twice in the 5000, despite his massive points total.

[pickemgenius]

whoa is me says the guy who hasnt had an opponent score 100 or more points against him.


Divisions are fun. Divisions exist in every('major')sport.


Like....

I'm in 5th in an overall picture.


SERIOUSLY?

SERIOUSLY?

[D3f3nd3r]

In the NBA divisions don't do anything.

[Yiley]

whoa is me says the guy who hasnt had an opponent score 100 or more points against him.


Divisions are fun. Divisions exist in every('major')sport.


Like....

I'm in 5th in an overall picture.


SERIOUSLY?

SERIOUSLY?

These divisions make no sense. Yes they may be fun, and they may exist in every sport, but when a team with a better record and more points for is out of the playoffs for a worse team, because of divisions, that just doesn't make sense. Currently I am not in the playoffs and am listed fifth just because of divisions. Once again I'm not sure how this makes any sense. I have around 30 more points for than peg and a better record. So why in the world should he be in the playoffs instead of me?

[Flameaxe]

I prefer divisions to no divisions

[D3f3nd3r]

Also Lamora what site are you using for the league predictions?

I like divisions as entities to determine who plays who when, but not to determine who makes playoffs.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

The idea of divisions isn't that they are more fair (although I've learned from this thread that some people think they are?). It's that it's more fun. If you are 6-6 and there is no shot at making the playoffs, but you're pretty safe from relegation, you might get careless. Because why bother? But if you are 6-6 and tied for a division lead, you're going right down to the wire. Championships tend to go to teams that deserve it most of the time anyway. But yeah, just like the fact that we play head to head and not roto, it's just more fun. Even the relegation system adds to it. I mean, I'm 4-8 and I care more about this league than most of my others right now. If it didn't matter, I probably wouldn't have just won against Rob because I'd leave the better pickups for the past month to people who have a shot to do something and focus on my teams that are in playoff races right now. I mean, yeah, I always play to win. But I put extra time in where I really care.

Relegation solves most of the competitive at the bottom argument; I don't know the other league standings, but literally league 2 wouldn't change without divisions, same teams would be in the playoff race, same teams would be in the relegation race. They'd just be shuffled a bit in a way that makes sense.

whoa is me says the guy who hasnt had an opponent score 100 or more points against him.

Divisions are fun. Divisions exist in every('major')sport.

Like....

I'm in 5th in an overall picture.

SERIOUSLY?

SERIOUSLY?

I made this argument earlier in the season, at the beginning of the season and at the end of last season; this has nothing to do with my current standing, it's just demonstrative of the problem. Fun is a subjective point and one I disagree with and pro sports have divisions... seriously. The only reason divisions even remotely work in the NFL is the lack of schedule overlap but that's not an issue in fantasy, we share 11/14 games and the most foreword thinking league in American sports, the NBA, have realized how worthless they are and have all but phased them out.

[Locke Lamora]

Also Lamora what site are you using for the league predictions?

I like divisions as entities to determine who plays who when, but not to determine who makes playoffs.

I made a spreadsheet with the results so far and the league schedule, and wrote a macro to simulate who wins the remaining games and calculate the resulting standings 5000 times.

[PokerFace]

PEG is the best team in the weakest division at 7-5. DDDP has the easiest schedule as he has a little over 1000 pts against him. DDDP is first in league 2 with 10-2

Wraith has second and has second easiest schedule. According to last weeks game recap Wraith would be 8-2 with my schedule and I would be 8-2 with his. As I won both my games against him and he lost them, I'd be 10-2 with Wraith's schedule and he would be 8-4 with mine. Wraith is currently 9-3. So if I had Wraith's schedule, my team would have a better record than wraith has with his schedule. 10-2 > 9-3. As I am currently 7-5 wraith would be a better team with my schedule than I am with my schedule. Khan can have wraith's team. I want Wraith's schedule

So divisions and schedules both have problems. Do their problems fix each other? Considering that's what we have in every league and the discussions we are having, two wrongs don't make a right.

I like divisions from a rivalry point of view, but from a playoff seeding point of view, its not perfect. With that in mind we could always give what the NBA does a try for one year. If we don't like it we can go back the next year right?

[Yiley]

I like have divisions for scheduling reason, and that's fine by me, but I don't want them to all be garunteed a spot in the playoffs. I still have a chance, so it's not for sure that I'll miss because of this. We will see.

[zoraster]

It'd be easier if we had 6 team playoffs where the best two teams got byes.

[PokerFace]

It'd be easier if we had 6 team playoffs where the best two teams got byes.

12 teams where 6 make it in feels wrong. This is the one thing wrong nba does wrong, too many make it in

[zoraster]

It'd be easier if we had 6 team playoffs where the best two teams got byes.

12 teams where 6 make it in feels wrong. This is the one thing wrong nba does wrong, too many make it in

Well 6 teams doesn't really work with 14-week seasons anyway (because you'd have your superbowl in the last week of the season). 6 teams feels sort of wrong, but I like that it gives a huge incentive to be 1st or 2nd, whereas now it doesn't really matter as long as you just get into the playoffs.

[PokerFace]

I like that incentive for 1 and 2 you got there, but there is still the incentive for being 1 as things are. Team 1 should theoretically be playing the weakest of the 4 teams. 1v4, 2v3

This is why I like the rule
Playoff Seeding Options: Division winners advance but seeded by overall standings

Otherwise the wild card would always be 4

That rule helps things be more fair in the already unfair system