Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[Soapbar]

@Hawk, does your role allow you to jail yourself? I remember that being a thing jailors can do if mods allow it

[3dicerolling]

Vote Count: 1.3

The only thing even close to the cinnamon roll is The Onion.

hawkleader3 - (1) MoosyDoosy
Soapbar - (0)
FA_Q2 - (1) Syndesis
MoosyDoosy - (1) hawkleader3
toolenduso - (0)
TheCow - (0)
Metrion - (0)
Swordsworth - (2) Soapbar, toolenduso
BirdythePhoenix - (0)
iraonavp - (0)
Chaotic Neutrality - (0)
Syndesis - (1) Chaotic Neutrality
davesaz - (0)

Not voting: BirdythePhoenix, davesaz, iraonavp, Metrion, TheCow, toolenduso, FA_Q2

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Mod Notes: Metrion V/LA until Monday

Day 1 ends: (expired on 2015-12-27 23:20:59)

[Soapbar]

Oh wait, never mind, I just read on the wiki Jailors can't jail themselves. I swear that I heard of jailors being able to do that somewhere.

[hawkleader3]

Guys, the reason Moosy thinks I should be lynched is simple: he thinks I'm scum. The way he sees it, we have a chance to lynch scum if I'm lying, but if I happened to be telling the truth, lynching me wouldn't be as big of a loss because I'm not the best scumhunter and since I claimed my PR, scum is going to get to me anyway.

Moosy: I don't think anyone else is going to agree with you because everyone's on the same page and that page is that I appear as more town than scum. While you are thinking of the best case scenario: scum being lynched, They have such a town read on me that killing me is literally a waste of a day and that your reason for lynching me has nothing to do with me being scum at all. We are only a few days into this Mafia game, and your case for me being scum and lynching me isn't enough to stop hunting. Scumhunters are greedy, but still patient.

[MoosyDoosy]

Yes hawk I completely think that I can get your lynch off at this point in time. I am absolutely confident and serious in this.

[hawkleader3]

The point of the game isn't to lynch me, Moosy. It's to lynch scum

[Syndesis]

Yes hawk I completely think that I can get your lynch off at this point in time. I am absolutely confident and serious in this.

Do I detect a hint of sarcasm

[hawkleader3]

When I read texts, I suck at detecting sarcasm unless I hear it out of someone's mouth

[Syndesis]

I'm pretty sure that Hawke is town, mostly due to the fact that he was far too cooperative to be scum when Cow was asking for his typing speed.

I think this is null TBH.

Nothing else particuarly sticks out to me as scummy after that though, my biggest suspect so far is Swordsworth, due to the fact that the only 2 posts where he actually does things (discounting 136) are him reacting to votes/comments on his posts. 136 seemed like he was trying to stay as neutral as possible, ready to take his vote off if the wagon fell apart but keeping it on in case the wagon could still reasonably lead to a lynch. Of course, taking into account that he has posted fairly sparsely at the moment and he's new could explain these things but I still have eyes on him.

Yeah. Swords' posting is fairly lackluster at the moment.

[toolenduso]

Moosy that strategy makes no sense. If he is scum fakeclaiming then leaving him alive means we might actually end up with a more clear indication that he's fakeclaiming, and then we lynch him. In the meantime we lynch somebody else, hopefully somebody who's scum. If he is town then lynching him means we've lynched a friggin' PR and we get no benefit from that PR at all.

I don't really expect you to listen to me because that doesn't seem to be your style, so how about we worry about this if anybody else is actually interested in lynching hawk.

Spoiler: ISO reads

hawk:

-Just going to skip this for now in the interest of saving time because especially this early in the game his claim preempts pretty much any other factor I could use to read him.

Soap:

-Main focus has been on me and my thing with moosy. In a surface-level way, this actually strikes me as town. When I was secretive about something in my last game, it was two townies who endlessly pushed me trying to get me to be more explicit.
-Nothing else other than that that seems alignment indicative.

FA:

-Second post (#95) he places hawk at L-1. Says hawk is trying to appease people and is ignoring mounting pressure on his slot.
-His response to hawk's claim does not address anything about the claim itself but rather continues to try to make hawk look bad. This seems scummy to me.
-Has a lot of posts where he's clearly trying to get people to talk more, which looks towny.
-Unvotes, I'm assuming because of my arguing, in #161.

Moosy:

-Expressed conviction waaay too early. Like, his second post. Then he has more conviction about more things before there's really too much of a basis for having that conviction (#30, #34, #36). I take this as more town-looking than scum, it genuinely looks like somebody who is bored with D1 and wants to try to have fun with it by being a troll.
-That also explains his cheeky response to me in #60, #61 and #62.
-The way he's doggedly sticking to his hawk vote despite multiple in-thread explanations for why this is a bad idea also seems like town...Moosy seems reckless and stubborn, and as scum it's much better to be flexible so you don't get scumread for stupid stuff.

TheCow:

-Starts doing a lot of work right off the bat, approaches the game with a drive to base reads on evidence. Tend to think this looks towny, but then it's something I do to guide my thoughts and make them look more town when I'm scum. There is one part where it looks kind of genuinely town though, and that's where he's asking hawk for his typing speed to see whether he had his claim typed up beforehand. Why this would impact his evaluation of hawk's claim I'm not sure, but TC obviously saw something behind it, and given some of the other stuff he's looked at (he did meta research and commented on a player's use of punctuation), it fits into his MO.
-He does put Hawk back at L-1 after the first person unvotes Hawk following the claim (#104), but then there were enough people who didn't immediately unvote Hawk following his claim that I don't think scum could explain all of them. Plus, you know, the unlikelihood of all three scum being on the first substantial wagon to form. So TC leans town for me.

Metrion:

-Null, only two posts and neither have anything substantial.

Sword:

-Obviously newbie, to the point where he doesn't know how to unvote. This needs to inform the read on him.
-I do think that basically preempts the scum explanation for his eager entrance to the game.
-It also makes me doubt the motivation behind posts like #47 and #97, where he seems to be looking for reasons to scumread people. Maybe this is just him learning to scumhunt.
-So null, basically.

ira:

-Also very newbish.
-#76 seems somewhat towny to me. He's exhibiting paranoia of a lot of different players and I kind of don't think such a new scum player would think to do fake pre-flip associatives.
-Posts like #77 and #158 demonstrate an openness to ira's thought process that strikes me as town as well.
-Interaction with hawk slot could come from scum, though. His vote on hawk in #76 put hawk at L-2, and his unvote was made in response to my urging people to unvote. It's kind of like I gave him an excuse to.

Chaotic:

-Nothing substantial, null.

Syndesis:

-Has a clearly self-doubting attitude about scumhunting, which I think looks towny. Some examples: in #105, asking if somebody thought it was a good idea to lynch a claimed PR, in #110 beginning a sentence by saying he doesn't like a post and then reversing and saying it's fine.
-Yeah it just seems like he's not very sure of himself, which I think he would be more self-conscious about as scum.

dave:

-Has several posts that kind of look like he's trying to interact with people to get them to look scummy but doesn't really want to draw attention to himself, as well as posts where he's just kind of interacting without giving thoughts on the game. Examples of the former would be #38, #42, #92 and #93. Examples of the latter include #37, #39 and #153.

Too few scumreads right now, which could be a product of scum being in {metrion, chaotic, sword}, but I expect this to improve as we go along.

Right now I think dave looks bad. May do some meta work on him, but only so as to find out whether he also posts like this as town...when I tried to look for patterns that could indicate scum or town in meta work in my last game, it didn't go so well.

VOTE: dave

[Syndesis]

Swords is only a site-newbie, IIRC?

[toolenduso]

sorry synd wrong pronouns :/

[toolenduso]

Swords is only a site-newbie, IIRC?

don't know, but his play seems newbish

[Syndesis]

Oh, it's fine haha.

Anyway, long story short, reading Swords as purely newbtown is probably not a super great idea. I agree that his opening post makes sense in the context of a site-newbie, though.

[iraonavp]

Yes we should lynch hawk when he was un CC'd. Just the fact that Mafia will make him a target off the bat gives us more incentive to kill him ASAP.

That sounds awfully reckless, I do not endorse this plan!

I would consider voting Metrion at this point, as I believed him to be scum-aligned from his entrance post and I would like to hear more from him. Unfortunately he appears to be V / LA until Friday.



VOTE: FA_Q2

I prefer this vote, instead.

Respond to what?

He has not constructed a 'push.' Just a rather naked vote and a post that says 'this.' Neither is something that is possible to respond to until he actually gives a reason or a case for the vote.

Here, FA_Q2 expresses indignation towards Syndesis' vote. I feel this is likely to originate from a scum-aligned player feeling that their own play is sound and getting frustrated at an unexplained (and in their opinion unjustified) vote.

By all means - construct a case.

He wants Syndesis to give more reasoning behind her push, perhaps because he is uncomfortable with the unexplained vote despite it carrying little weight at this point. Scum-aligned players may be less at-ease with votes on themselves as they have more incentive to survive. He wants Syndesis to attack him with arguments that he can defuse, as he is eager to release even the slightest pressure of a single vote!

[Syndesis]

I mean, I get frustrated when people push me without a case as either alignment, so that might be just null. That said, scum caught for the wrong reasons also tend to get frustrated, but I've seen no sign of that so far.

[iraonavp]

I mean, I get frustrated when people push me without a case as either alignment, so that might be just null. That said, scum caught for the wrong reasons also tend to get frustrated, but I've seen no sign of that so far.

I feel that his response has constituted more than just frustration, in particular premature defensiveness. His repeated insistence that you explain your vote, and that an unexplained accusation cannot be responded to, show how much he wants to answer your accusation to prevent his wagon from progressing any further.

You should but you are going to need more than a naked vote to do so.

By all means - construct a case.

Additionally, in posts like this tone is somewhat passive-aggressive, and I believe he is attempting to hide his frustration. This makes me think that FA_Q2 is perhaps trying to hide his fear of being voted which is even greater than he is letting on.

[davesaz]

Swords feels like an experienced player who needs to look newb due to join date, mixed with genuinely not knowing site meta. I see it as slightly scummy, since scum are the ones who need to know how to act. There is another possible interpretation but I won't bring it up now because discussing it is antitown.

On the surface it would seem Moosy would have to be town, because there is the assumption that scum would not risk going all in like that on a clearly unpopular position. If Hawk flipped scum, Moosy might be able to ride that to a nearly confirmed town status. It's a little similar to the way my partner got town cred in one of my scum games. Too early to do associations, but the two of them being scumbuddies is something to guard against.

[FA_Q2]

I mean, I get frustrated when people push me without a case as either alignment, so that might be just null. That said, scum caught for the wrong reasons also tend to get frustrated, but I've seen no sign of that so far.

I feel that his response has constituted more than just frustration, in particular premature defensiveness. His repeated insistence that you explain your vote, and that an unexplained accusation cannot be responded to, show how much he wants to answer your accusation to prevent his wagon from progressing any further.

You should but you are going to need more than a naked vote to do so.

By all means - construct a case.

Additionally, in posts like this tone is somewhat passive-aggressive, and I believe he is attempting to hide his frustration. This makes me think that FA_Q2 is perhaps trying to hide his fear of being voted which is even greater than he is letting on.

Strange considering that there is zero frustration in that post at all. I expect everyone to explain their votes. Naked votes are more than worthless - they are scummy. They completely avoid purpose and reasoning - things you use later in the game to find scum.

Further, I was directly asked to address the vote. I responded. Considering that I called out hawk for ignoring pressure on him I don't see how you would expect me to act otherwise.

[FA_Q2]

He has not constructed a 'push.' Just a rather naked vote and a post that says 'this.' Neither is something that is possible to respond to until he actually gives a reason or a case for the vote.

Fair enough, though I thought it was possible that someone would pick up on the context. Plus it was super late here and I didn't feel like typing out actual reasons >___>

The context is that I find it weird that you kind of sussed hawk without voting him, while not voting anyone at all.

Oh god I just realized that I've become that person who never explains anything unless asked whoops this is not what I was trying to do

At the time I believed a vote on him would not be constructive. his wagon was building fast and I didn't want to see it progress any further from a single post. Then he made another scummy post and I decided it was time to put my vote there.

That single post was a really weak reason to vote him when his wagon was already mounting. I wanted to see further reactions.

[MoosyDoosy]

Moosy that strategy makes no sense. If he is scum fakeclaiming then leaving him alive means we might actually end up with a more clear indication that he's fakeclaiming, and then we lynch him. In the meantime we lynch somebody else, hopefully somebody who's scum. If he is town then lynching him means we've lynched a friggin' PR and we get no benefit from that PR at all.

I don't really expect you to listen to me because that doesn't seem to be your style, so how about we worry about this if anybody else is actually interested in lynching hawk.

Spoiler: ISO reads

hawk:

-Just going to skip this for now in the interest of saving time because especially this early in the game his claim preempts pretty much any other factor I could use to read him.

Soap:

-Main focus has been on me and my thing with moosy. In a surface-level way, this actually strikes me as town. When I was secretive about something in my last game, it was two townies who endlessly pushed me trying to get me to be more explicit.
-Nothing else other than that that seems alignment indicative.

FA:

-Second post (#95) he places hawk at L-1. Says hawk is trying to appease people and is ignoring mounting pressure on his slot.
-His response to hawk's claim does not address anything about the claim itself but rather continues to try to make hawk look bad. This seems scummy to me.
-Has a lot of posts where he's clearly trying to get people to talk more, which looks towny.
-Unvotes, I'm assuming because of my arguing, in #161.

Moosy:

-Expressed conviction waaay too early. Like, his second post. Then he has more conviction about more things before there's really too much of a basis for having that conviction (#30, #34, #36). I take this as more town-looking than scum, it genuinely looks like somebody who is bored with D1 and wants to try to have fun with it by being a troll.
-That also explains his cheeky response to me in #60, #61 and #62.
-The way he's doggedly sticking to his hawk vote despite multiple in-thread explanations for why this is a bad idea also seems like town...Moosy seems reckless and stubborn, and as scum it's much better to be flexible so you don't get scumread for stupid stuff.

TheCow:

-Starts doing a lot of work right off the bat, approaches the game with a drive to base reads on evidence. Tend to think this looks towny, but then it's something I do to guide my thoughts and make them look more town when I'm scum. There is one part where it looks kind of genuinely town though, and that's where he's asking hawk for his typing speed to see whether he had his claim typed up beforehand. Why this would impact his evaluation of hawk's claim I'm not sure, but TC obviously saw something behind it, and given some of the other stuff he's looked at (he did meta research and commented on a player's use of punctuation), it fits into his MO.
-He does put Hawk back at L-1 after the first person unvotes Hawk following the claim (#104), but then there were enough people who didn't immediately unvote Hawk following his claim that I don't think scum could explain all of them. Plus, you know, the unlikelihood of all three scum being on the first substantial wagon to form. So TC leans town for me.

Metrion:

-Null, only two posts and neither have anything substantial.

Sword:

-Obviously newbie, to the point where he doesn't know how to unvote. This needs to inform the read on him.
-I do think that basically preempts the scum explanation for his eager entrance to the game.
-It also makes me doubt the motivation behind posts like #47 and #97, where he seems to be looking for reasons to scumread people. Maybe this is just him learning to scumhunt.
-So null, basically.

ira:

-Also very newbish.
-#76 seems somewhat towny to me. He's exhibiting paranoia of a lot of different players and I kind of don't think such a new scum player would think to do fake pre-flip associatives.
-Posts like #77 and #158 demonstrate an openness to ira's thought process that strikes me as town as well.
-Interaction with hawk slot could come from scum, though. His vote on hawk in #76 put hawk at L-2, and his unvote was made in response to my urging people to unvote. It's kind of like I gave him an excuse to.

Chaotic:

-Nothing substantial, null.

Syndesis:

-Has a clearly self-doubting attitude about scumhunting, which I think looks towny. Some examples: in #105, asking if somebody thought it was a good idea to lynch a claimed PR, in #110 beginning a sentence by saying he doesn't like a post and then reversing and saying it's fine.
-Yeah it just seems like he's not very sure of himself, which I think he would be more self-conscious about as scum.

dave:

-Has several posts that kind of look like he's trying to interact with people to get them to look scummy but doesn't really want to draw attention to himself, as well as posts where he's just kind of interacting without giving thoughts on the game. Examples of the former would be #38, #42, #92 and #93. Examples of the latter include #37, #39 and #153.

Too few scumreads right now, which could be a product of scum being in {metrion, chaotic, sword}, but I expect this to improve as we go along.

Right now I think dave looks bad. May do some meta work on him, but only so as to find out whether he also posts like this as town...when I tried to look for patterns that could indicate scum or town in meta work in my last game, it didn't go so well.

VOTE: dave

Exactly. It's because hawk is solved over time that we should kill him right now as that makes the most sense.

[MoosyDoosy]

Swords feels like an experienced player who needs to look newb due to join date, mixed with genuinely not knowing site meta. I see it as slightly scummy, since scum are the ones who need to know how to act. There is another possible interpretation but I won't bring it up now because discussing it is antitown.

On the surface it would seem Moosy would have to be town, because there is the assumption that scum would not risk going all in like that on a clearly unpopular position. If Hawk flipped scum, Moosy might be able to ride that to a nearly confirmed town status. It's a little similar to the way my partner got town cred in one of my scum games. Too early to do associations, but the two of them being scumbuddies is something to guard against.

mMmm that reminds me of my glory days where I bused both the roleblocker and goon on my team as Mafia. Not only that but I tried to kill the roleblocker D1. Took me until D4 or so but I got it accomplished in the end. yesss

[davesaz]

Exactly. It's because hawk is solved over time that we should kill him right now as that makes the most sense.

This is anti-town to the point that it makes me wonder if you're a jester or something. (Normals can have a non-normal role)

[Chaotic Neutrality]

I see you guys almost reached page 9 without me. That's cool I guess. But it's really not.

I'm going to read over tonight and see if I can make heads and tails of things.

Anyone have any specific questions for my fresh read?

[Swordsworth]

Alright hi

Moosy, I dug through your ISO, and to be perfectly clear: you ooze scum from your pores. I can understand your initial push against hawk, but I've quickly lost faith in you being town what with your 167 and 195. They give a strong impression of attempting to get Hawk out of the way. Sure, the mafia may target him tonight, but if I was scum I'd be trying to optimize. After all, ideally, why waste a kill slot on an outed jailkeeper when you can free up that kill via lynch?