Blitz 14: Murder on Madness Mountain GAME OVER!

[Ranger]

Isn't it hypocritical to say Jackal is lining up lynches when you did so.

Sure would be, if I had actually done so!

I've pretty much proven exactly why I never did.

Also, because this will be a new page and is really important:

And thanks for trying to discredit me by telling me I belong in the newbie queue, but I have a 100% winrate as town since returning to the site this year, and I have a >70% winrate as town overall. That is not coincidence.

Good to hear.
Let's see what you have to say after you lynched CN (town), you pushed Ricastle as scum (town), and you lynch me (also town).

By your own words, it's proof you're scum.

[Ranger]

CN is an awful wagon. Ranger is best, Fire is better.

Fire needs a prod (as does our mod, who's over the limit on times between VCs).

I don't believe I can do justice to analyzing Jackal before I go to bed in around 10 minutes, so my vote is where it is for the moment. I'd much rather we lynch you, frankly, but I don't believe a vote there is productive for the same reason a vote on Jackal wouldn't be. There's no existing support there and we have no time. We've managed 6 pages in >3.5 days. What makes you think people are going to pop out of the woodwork after 10PM EST to complete a quicklynch? I have no trust in that, and Jackal's null for me right now anyway.

Ricastle deserves serious scum points in Day 2 for swapping off a wagon that's near lynch slightly before deadline and going to sleep immediately. Serious attempt to derail.

I refuse to go with CN. I think scum's on that wagon. It popped up incredibly quickly and close to deadline, and there's no clear reason why. Especially Jackal's vote was not good, but I need more time to examine the wagon.

(This, ignoring the fact that

The Ranger Wagon is the exact same thing

.)

We have two hours. If you'll be around at 3:30am EST, I'd recommend putting your vote on Ranger now if you prefer him and we can change later if needed. I'm going to be up until deadline most likely to make sure we don't no lynch. I'd really prefer Ranger over CN, though. CN's wagon strikes me as awful.

Who do you actually prefer - Ranger or CN?

(Ignoring also that I hated the CN wagon too.)

Speaking of Rob's iso:

I don't analyze for partners pre-flip, since it seriously messes up my reads and thinking if I start looking for associative tells early. I heavily encourage you adopt the practice as well.

I'm predicting a {Ranger, Jackal} scum team where they're desperately cross-bussing because they're both being scumread hard.

Rob is being absolutely hypocritical to his own advice.

[Ythan]

Vote Count

Ranger: Firebringer, Rob13 (2)
Jackal711: absinthe (1)
Firebringer: Soren (1)
Rob13: Ranger (1)

Not voting: davesaz, Jackal711

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-12-25 19:40:00).

[Ranger]

Taking /ins for Murder at Madness Mountain, a role madness microblitz.

Also, explicitly role madness, just to reinforce my point. Ricastle was a role, CN was a role, absinthe is a role, I'm also a role.

[Ythan]

Removing that just now because I hadn't noticed it was still there.

[Ranger]

So I'm pretty sure Firebringer is town. Admittedly, this relies on Rob being scum (OH GEE LOOK I MADE AN "IF" STATEMENT I MUST BE LINING UP A MISLYNCH!), but I don't think that Rob buddies Firebringer that hardly if Firebringer were scum. (This is very strongly evident in Rob's posting: he only needs one ally in lylo to win, and Firebringer can be that ally, because Rob's been defending Firebringer the majority of the game. This also works to create the impression of Firebringer being a Rob scumbuddy should Rob flip first, while also giving Rob town credit should Firebringer be lynched first. Thus, Firebringer is town so long as Rob's scum.)

[Rob14]

Your later town-read on Ricastle is

not

at all related to my lining up lynches tell on you. I'm not sure if you're conflating the two to attack a strawman or just misunderstanding what I mean when I say lining up lynches, but you're bringing up your later town-read on Ricastle, NOT me.

You just said you thought he was scum YOURSELF in #249! You said scum but weakening. So which is it? Was he a weak scum read or a null read? If you're going to throw shit at the fan and hope it sticks, you might want to try to at least be consistent in explaining your rationales.

The "If" isn't the way a townie thinks. That's what you're either not getting or trying to make go away. You don't come out of the gate thinking you're wrong. Every townie realizes they could be wrong, which is why I avoid relational tells altogether, but I have never ever seen a townie post about relational tells that assume they're wrong. Ever. I've seen scum do it routinely as an attempt to move fluidly from town to town without looking like their "new" reads don't have a foundation in their posting during previous days.

Ranger, the fact that you're bringing up the townread thing makes it immediately invalid. You know that. I know that. Everyone else knows that. Why are you persisting with it? I've explained a clear rationale for you to kill Ricastle. I was pushing you based on your read of him. Scum!You didn't want to be examined closely, so you removed the reason for the push in hopes that I'd move onto something else. Killing me would have been substantially more risky because it could be more directly tied to you. If you are scum, killing Ricastle is the optimal move. Like ... are you claiming that you don't realize scum analyzes how kills could come back to haunt them when they make them? If so, maybe you should be the one going back to the newbie queue.

Trying to push CN's lynch on me when you fucking peaced out of the thread with no time left and your vote uselessly on Jackal (at L-4) is rich. It's really fucking rich. It was a deadline lynch. It was that or a no lynch after you refused to place a vote that actually mattered for anything. I even called you out on that at the time, and you promised that people would mysteriously appear before going to take a nap or some shit. GUESS WHAT. THEY DIDN'T. I had CN as a town read, which I made very clear as deadline approached, but the whole playerlist decided to vote useless wagons and leave nothing but a shitty option. That's not on me. If anything, it's on you for your Jackal vote at deadline.

I never voted Ricastle. I never scumread him. I did want to push him in Day 2 for making a useless vote, just like you, and I stand by that.

And you haven't flipped. You'll flip scum though. There's no way your rationale here is legit. If it is, you honestly

should

go back to the newbie queue.

[Ranger]

That puts me at:
{absinthe}
{Firebringer}
{Soren}
{davesaz}
{Jackal711, Rob13}

I'm not so sure about Soren in regards to Rob. Soren by gut feels town, though, regardless of interactions.

If I'm wrong about one of Jackal/Rob (GEE LOOK ANOTHER IF STATEMENT, CONFSCUM TRULY!), then I'd guess davesaz, but this isn't something I have any real evidence for. It's simply feeling, off of Rob's dave interactions (rather, mostly a lack of them) along with dave buddying Rob the way he does, while on the other hand, also fitting as a Jackal scumbuddy for the reasons I already pointed out.

Sadly, if either Soren or absinthe are swayed to vote me, you won't have enough lynches to lynch them all, and you'll just have to hope my intuition about Rob/Jackal is right after I'm lynched. (Because, duh, Jackal's going to go back on, either when it can be done without suspicion, or done as a sacrificial lamb; dave is working his way to voting there, too.)

[Rob14]

Your entire 255 is complete WIFOM. What did I expect, though?

My reads on Jackal and you are entirely independent. I noted the possible bussing because it was obviously going to be the next question ("BUT HOW COULD THEY BE PARTNERS WHEN JACKAL VOTED RANGER THEN IMMEDIATELY UNVOTED? WHO WOULD DO SUCH A THING?!?!?" ~ idiot townies everywhere). It is not part of my read and never has been.

There were good reasons for your wagon near deadline. That's a clear difference.

Why do I give a shit if you hated the CN wagon? The point is, you were willing to no lynch. You voted Jackal where no-one else was voting then literally logged off with hours to go. And you have the fucking audacity to blame the mislynch on

me

?

I'm done engaging with you. I'm happy to answer any questions from other players, but my case is clear. Your defense literally doesn't make sense. It's barely coherent, and it's attacking arguments that aren't even there. You keep bringing in random other actions you've done and saying that my argument doesn't prove those actions were scummy. We're either having two totally different conversations, or you're just throwing everything you've ever done out there in an attempt to confuse my case.

My case is simple. In #92, you laid the foundation for a jump onto Ricastle if Fire was town. You were currently voting Fire. If you were town, you would not think that way; you would not have begun examining relational tells that assume you're incorrect. Especially not on page 4. On the other hand, scum!Ranger would know Fire is town and be looking for the next lynch. This post reveals a strong scum motivation and no town motivation, ergo scum.

Do not let all the other bullshit Ranger is throwing out there confuse my case. It's simple. I reduced it to one paragraph to make it extra simple.

P-edit: And there you go again, confusing things. "If statements" are not scummy. The particular way you used one in #92 is. You're attempting to say I'm attacking you for an "if statement" alone and then attack that argument. That is simply not the argument I'm making, and it's not even a reasonable reading of what I've posted. It's a blatant strawman.

[Ranger]

Your later town-read on Ricastle is not at all related to my lining up lynches tell on you. I'm not sure if you're conflating the two to attack a strawman or just misunderstanding what I mean when I say lining up lynches, but you're bringing up your later town-read on Ricastle, NOT me.

My later townread on Ricastle

proves the lining up mislynches comment false

. Because if I was actually lining up mislynches...I wouldn't have changed my read, now, would I?

You just said you thought he was scum YOURSELF in #249!

FIREBRINGER. FIREBRINGER was scum but weakening. This should be obvious to anyone reading the context of my post.

Which...was evident by my posts. Like, y'know. Unvoting him near the end of the day.

The "If" isn't the way a townie thinks.

Oh yes it is. Hard "if X is town, Y is scum", sure, that might not be a town thought.
But I, very clearly, as explicitly laid out, was not saying that.

You don't come out of the gate thinking you're wrong.

Which I wasn't. I didn't go, "Well, I'm pretty sure I'm wrong about Firebringer being scum in spite of voting them", now, did I?

I, explicitly, was stating the possibility. Which was

growing

, a la my weakening Firebringer scumread. So I didn't come out of the gate thinking I was wrong...but the possibility that I was? Yes. Explicitly so, I was considering it.

I've explained a clear rationale for you to kill Ricastle.

Oh, really?

I see none.

Trying to push CN's lynch on me when you fucking peaced out of the thread with no time left and your vote uselessly on Jackal (at L-4) is rich. It's really fucking rich. It was a deadline lynch. It was that or a no lynch after you refused to place a vote that actually mattered for anything.

And? No-lynching is somehow the end of the world if it saves the life of a town player?

I never voted Ricastle. I never scumread him.

143 implied otherwise.

I did want to push him in Day 2 for making a useless vote, just like you, and I stand by that.

And the fact that Ricastle made a "useless" vote, like me, and flipped town, means...what to you? That me doing the same thing means I'm scum, in spite of proof that a town player can and did think that way?

[Ranger]

I noted the possible bussing because it was obviously going to be the next question ("BUT HOW COULD THEY BE PARTNERS WHEN JACKAL VOTED RANGER THEN IMMEDIATELY UNVOTED? WHO WOULD DO SUCH A THING?!?!?" ~ idiot townies everywhere).

Hey.

We want to talk about things that town players don't do?

Get preemptively defensive and justify things like this. A town player would leave it be until asked by someone. A scum player, fearing they'll be called out, will immediately clarify as to prevent being called suspicious.

And you have the fucking audacity to blame the mislynch on me?

Yes. Because no-lynching is preferable to mislynching. I would have rather lynched Jackal. If not Jackal, a no-lynch. Because I wanted to avoid a mislynch.

My case is simple. In #92, you laid the foundation for a jump onto Ricastle if Fire was town. You were currently voting Fire. If you were town, you would not think that way; you would not have begun examining relational tells that assume you're incorrect. Especially not on page 4. On the other hand, scum!Ranger would know Fire is town and be looking for the next lynch. This post reveals a strong scum motivation and no town motivation, ergo scum.

Ooh, I can play the one-paragraph game, too.

I was asked by Ricastle to explain my read and answered. I said Ricastle was not a strong townread. Interactions between Firebringer and Ricastle suggested they would be unlikely scumbuddies, however, I was losing faith in my Firebringer scumread. As such, I was reevaluating my reads. Ricastle revealed himself to be town and I moved off of Firebringer near deadline without prompting, while there was a viable wagon. These show that I had no interest in mislynching them.

[Rob14]

In the face of pressure? Yeah, you would change the read! Literally the progression of events is this:

1) You line up lynches.
2) I call you on lining up lynches.
3) You swap your read.
4) You say that's proof you never lined up lynches.

That's not how it works! You can't just go back on what you did earlier and then say it never happened because you reneged. As I said earlier, no takebacksies.

In #19, Ricastle was your scummiest read (although you say it's still not strong scum). In #85, you have him only one tier above Fire, fifth in a set of six tiers. You talk about having him in a specific order of lynches in #81. How is that not a scum read? Or bordering on another example of lining up lynches, for that matter (not quite there, imo)?

No-lynching is horrible on Day 1. It gives no information. It prevents us from developing further reads. I'd rather self-vote and lynch myself than no-lynch on Day 1, because people can analyze my wagon to determine where to go on Day 2.

I literally noted 143 in my last post, where I said I did want to push him for a useless vote, just like I wanted to push you for a useless vote. That's not a scumread. It was anti-town behavior, though, and I noted it. Since you're indulging in this WIFOM game, maybe I should as well: Why would I note Ricastle as a developing scum read if I planned to kill him off that night? Feel free to either drop your WIFOM bullshit or acknowledge that I'm now super townie because of that line of thinking. You should do the former, because WIFOM is bad.

I'm not voting you for having a useless vote. That's not my case. If you want to read my case, refer to the bold in the last post I made. Another example of trying to throw all your other actions on the table and tell me all about how they aren't explicitly scummy.

THAT'S NOT MY CASE.

I'm feeling the need to have a macro ready for that sentence for the rest of this game.

P-edit: You're saying town players shouldn't be transparent like that? I was simply noting that I had considered the bussing element when placing the reads, mostly because I try to avoid relational bullshit pre-flips. When there's a choice between explaining myself and not or elaborating on my reasoning and not, I always go with more explaining/elaborating. It's good for the game and for the ability of others to read me.

No-lynching is not preferable to mislynching in Day 1. You're wrong.

I'm entirely done responding to you, though. I'm not going to convince you to self-vote, so it's a pointless exercise. Feel free to keep building strawmen and yammering on about things I haven't even said. I trust that others will see through that if you continue.

[absinthe]

Rob, I know for a fact that as town I've had similar thought process about two players, and I am almost certain that I could go back through ancient games on other sites and find examples where I posted something similar to what you want to string Ranger up for.

This is why I said I was skeptical about your case.

[davesaz]

Vote Count

Jackal711: Ranger, absinthe, Rob13 (3)
Ranger: Firebringer (1)
Firebringer: Soren (1)

Not voting: davesaz, Jackal711

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-12-25 19:40:00).

Jackea is L-1.

Hammer intent.

Because keeping him alive and perpetuating the lining up lynches narrative was dangerous to your continued existence. A scum will always kill someone town-reading them if leaving that person alive risks a scum lynch. You're deliberately ignoring my entire explanation of why you would have motivation as scum to kill Ricastle in favor of attacking ... what, exactly? You're not addressing any argument. You're just saying "He was town-reading me, so I wouldn't kill him." That's WIFOM bullshit and you know it. You've never addressed my specific rationale why you would kill Ricastle except to say you weren't lining up lynches, even though it's clear that you were.

VOTE: Ranger

Not letting this scum get away. Both Jackal and Soren get the rope next for being absolutely useless, if not outright scummy.

I'm down for a Rob lynch. Lining up lynches is not a scumtell but obsessing on it is.
I'd still much prefer Jackal, and had given intent. That's another reason to suspect Rob.

[Rob14]

Lining up lynches in the way Ranger did is absolutely a scumtell. The actual act of having more than one scumread is NOT the point. The point is that Ranger was incorporating the fact that Fire was town in her read of Ricastle while simultaneously voting Fire. That doesn't make sense unless she knew Fire was town. If "obsessing" over a scumtell makes me scum, then god help this town.

[Soren]

Haven't had much time to post. I'll post later.

[Jackal711]

Prod acknowledged. I've been busier than usual cause I found out last minute (less than an hour ago) that the family Christmas get-together is at my place this year.

@Mod: I will be completely without access until Friday morning. If this is going to be a problem feel free to find a replacement

[davesaz]

@Rob:

A is scum; vote A
If I'm wrong and A is town, then B must be scum

How is that a scumtell? I literally do this

all the time

.

[Rob14]

Can town think that? Sure.

Have I ever seen town post it as their first pass at a read on B? No. Because at the very least, they start on the assumption they're right and then evaluate if they're wrong. More often, though, they don't even post it at all and it's just kicking around in their head.

Like ... if we spent time going over every way that we could be wrong all day long, game threads would be a mess. Scum

know

they're "wrong".

[davesaz]

It wasn't Ranger's first pass at a read. Ricastle started off bottom of the list, moved up a notch, and stayed that way. He was always near the bottom of Ranger's list, until she understood the crumb.

[Rob14]

When asked directly about the read, the first thing she said was "not convinced of town, especially if Fire is town". That's what I meant by first pass at a read. The first response was based on "if Fire is town".

[Ranger]

1) You line up lynches.
2) I call you on lining up lynches.

And as I already said: you either have to be the most arrogant player EVER or flat-out just scum to think that I would

ever

change my stance just because you called me out on something.

The ACTUAL reason I backed off has been stated before: I was engaging Ricastle,

at Ricastle's request

, explaining myself and why I had that read...which, when Ricastle gave me reason to believe he was town, changed appropriately. This had absolutely no bearing on you calling me out, as it is something that would happen regardless. Because, duh, Ricastle made himself known as town; why wouldn't I change my read?
For Firebringer, my read was weakening, to the point where at deadline, when there was a wagon on Firebringer, I unvoted. This is because, contrary to your claim of me lining up mislynches, I was trying to get a good read on players, and I was doubting Firebringer as scum, strongly enough that I was willing to risk a no-lynch to avoid a Firebringer lynch. This goes far, far, FAR beyond the realm of logical scum play even

if

I were the type of player to ever be moved by someone calling me out. (I'm not. My reads are my own. Always have been, always will be.)

In #19, Ricastle was your scummiest read (although you say it's still not strong scum). In #85, you have him only one tier above Fire, fifth in a set of six tiers. You talk about having him in a specific order of lynches in #81. How is that not a scum read?

Because early-on, I was quite explicit that I

had

no scumreads. Ricastle was the least-town-looking player at the time, and later the second-least-town-looking-player, but not a true scumread.

Why would I note Ricastle as a developing scum read if I planned to kill him off that night?

The same exact reason you stated, "if I die": for the town credit such statements give.

Speaking of which, all your call for activity is awfully reminiscent of what I did in Blitz 7...as scum.

You're saying town players shouldn't be transparent like that?

Oh, town players should be transparent alright. But that's not what I was accusing you of. No, I said, rather specifically:

I noted the possible bussing because it was obviously going to be the next question ("BUT HOW COULD THEY BE PARTNERS WHEN JACKAL VOTED RANGER THEN IMMEDIATELY UNVOTED? WHO WOULD DO SUCH A THING?!?!?" ~ idiot townies everywhere).

...That this^ shows evidence of being preemptively defensive, something a town player is not. A town player will be transparent and respond, yes, but AFTER the question is asked, not before.

Clarity isn't the problem. Timing of it is.

I'd still much prefer Jackal, and had given intent. That's another reason to suspect Rob.

I had not thought of that, and that does make me feel better about you.

Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut...
VOTE: Jackal711.
While I'm pretty sure Rob is scum, realistically, I don't think I can get a lynch on him. We have the support on Jackal, though. Furthermore, Rob either has to eat his own words and not vote Jackal, or be forced back onto the Jackal wagon because it has more momentum than my own. Either case is a win in my mind.

[Soren]

VOTE: Rob13.
I think it's a Rob-Jackal scumteam.

This would also explain the Ricastle kill, since that was where Ricastle was focusing attention it seemed like, near the end of the day.

This comes off as very omgussy.

---

8 hours left and looks like no one is interested in firebringer.
Rob has the stronger argument. VOTE: Ranger That's L-1

[Soren]

Also, Merry Christmas everyone.

[absinthe]

I'd quicklynch Soren for that godawful post.