Mini 1752: Back to December (Game Over)

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: curiouskarmadog

Hello everyone!

[Alchemist21]

Matt how many people here have you played with before? Is there a reason you're assuming everyone is familiar enough with Llama for that logic to apply?

[Alchemist21]

That doesn't answer the question.

[Alchemist21]

No, why would I care

Unless you can back up the logic, there's no reason to assume Llama would have been the N0 kill, so in my eyes wagoning him for that reason is really just an RVS wagon and saying it isn't is just bullcrap.

[Alchemist21]

I care because I want to know why you think it holds up so that I can understand you. I don't think it's scummy at the moment, I just think your logic has serious gaps to it.

[Alchemist21]

I care because I want to know why you think it holds up so that I can understand you. I don't think it's scummy at the moment, I just think your logic has serious gaps to it.

My logic has serious gaps in it because I wasn't serious about it

Well that explains a lot.

[Alchemist21]

I think I'm done with Matt for now. I want to address this post:

Orrrrrrrrr

You specifically didn't kill Llama so you could use that excuse to vote him

VOTE: MattP

Elyse, scum trying to frame someone with the NK usually aren't going to push the logic themselves. They wait for Town to pick up on it and then agree with the Townie who says it. If I thought anyone was trying to frame Llama, I'd probably wait to see who agreed with the first one to post the logic.

[Alchemist21]

Elyse, scum trying to frame someone with the NK usually aren't going to push the logic themselves. They wait for Town to pick up on it and then agree with the Townie who says it. If I thought anyone was trying to frame Llama, I'd probably wait to see who agreed with the first one to post the logic.

Do people actually do that? Avoiding NKing who you think would be the best town player in the hope that people would wagon him for not dying seems rather unreliable.

I guess it would depend on the scumteam and what they thought they could get away with. My main point here was that I don't think Llama was being framed and that Matt wasn't scum for the reason Elyse stated.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Alchemist

I feel like for your next post you'll declare there to be no scum in this game. You waited until MattP told you his plan was more or less flawed to address Elyse's post which came before you started talking to Mattp. You more or less stamped out any chance of a wagon from occurring even though the first wagon is the best way to get out of RVS or anything resembling it. More importantly, nothing you asked or gained affected anything to do with Elyse's reason for voting (thinking Matt used a NK and then NK analysis to frame llama). I know it's odd to use an argument "Oh you don't have a scumread on page 2" but your nonchalant and unassuming attitude thus far bothers me.

I agree with Matt. Nothing here explains why that would mean I'm scum. You aren't even correct on Elyse's post coming before I started talking to Matt, and that's all on just page 1, which makes me think you're just trying to make up reasons to scumread me.

VOTE: Aj the epic

[Alchemist21]

None of the things he posted are even inherently scummy. The only legitimate argument for alchemist-scum is that he's trying to hard to look busy, but that could just be his nature. Everything Aj listed isn't alignment indicative.

Nothing individually has to be inherently scummy, but that's not to say that in total what he did was odd for town. Why not address Elyse first if there's no reasonable response you'd make that would anything he'd say to Elyse? The only way your response to Alchemist would affect Elyse's "you are framing Llama" vote is if you openly admitted to doing so. And the question of 'do you have any logic to back this up' is a stacked question meant to derail all chances of that wagon happening. Of course no one can manage to have the logic for a wagon this early, especially with Llamas not even posting. No initial wagon has sound logic, and he should know that.

Here's the thing: if alchemist is town, 11 explains what you're trying to do in full. The questions that could be asked is "Why not x person for the kill?" or Elyse's response of "You're framing". Either of these questions help draw the game out of RVS because now there's a counter accusation. Even a vote for llama in that situation is a better response unless he legitimately does not feel comfortable with your vote, in which case he should be voting for you. His question of "do you have any logic" is just counterproductive to your stated intention: Bringing the game out of rvs.

I felt like finishing my interaction with Matt before addressing Elyse's post. Deal with it. Matt gave what I thought was a serious reason for his vote, as I can see a person believing that, and I wanted him to back it up.

My line of thinking was that for Llama to have been the likely enough goto NK that his survival meant he's scum, that would have to mean

A) Most or all of the playerlist knows Llama as a strong Town player.
B) Scum would have reason to believe that a Town Llama with that kind of reputation wouldn't be getting doc protection.

I was waiting for Matt to explain how his logic held up, and then I'd be able to better determine if it would be feasible given A and B.

I was trying to learn his thought process to try and read him. For things somewhat related to our interaction, I concluded he was Town. Now if you think my attempt at getting a read on another player is counterproductive, then you better tell me what you consider productive for a Town player.

[Alchemist21]

I think if it could be shown that A and B were reasonably possible, then I could see the case for Llama scum. When he said "good enough to skip RVS" it made me think his vote wasn't RVS. And you need to stop twisting my words around - I asked how many he had played with before, not have you played with everyone before. If he had played with a vast majority of the playerlist it would have lended more credibility to assumption A.

[Alchemist21]

I think if it could be shown that A and B were reasonably possible, then I could see the case for Llama scum. When he said "good enough to skip RVS" it made me think his vote wasn't RVS. And you need to stop twisting my words around - I asked how many he had played with before, not have you played with everyone before. If he had played with a vast majority of the playerlist it would have lended more credibility to assumption A.

Forgive me for construing that, then. This still doesn't answer my question about the contradiction between your response to Elyse and the conditions that you would accept it possible Llama could be scum.

My response to Elyse was that if Llama was being framed by the NK, then Matt wouldn't be scum since he was hard pushing the logic. Whenever scum want to frame someone, they aren't the first to suggest why the framed person is scum because it calls attention and blame to them when the framed flips Town.

Plus, if A and B were shown to be true, then assumption B (the lack of Doc protection) would mean the optimal play for scum would just kill Llama anyway rather than risk giving him a Day to work things out. A and B being true would point to Llama being more likely scum, and a scumbuddy pointing this out on the first page wouldn't make sense.

In any scenario, I see reasons that would make Matt Town, and Elyse's reason for voting him is something I strongly disagree with.

[Alchemist21]

@Matt; why did you feel the need to bring up your self-meta when you did? It seems pretty unrelated to what CKD was saying about you.

[Alchemist21]

^Slightly odd, but I can kinda see that coming from Town.

I'm not really sure what to think of Elyse at the moment. She seems to have more reasons for scumreading Matt than Overlord, but her vote's on Overlord. If Matt and SO are both Town, then at the moment Matt seems like the easier wagon for scum Elyse to join, and the only reason I can think of is that she doesn't want the backlash of joining an easy wagon, but then I think scum her would realize her reasons for being on SO are weaker and more open to scrutiny. I don't think scum her has a reason to play any WIFOM related to the situation at this point, and I can see Town making some of the points she's made, so for now I think she's Town. Elyse scum only makes sense to me if Matt is also scum, which I don't think is the case.

[Alchemist21]

@pj; I'm not sure what you're asking. Is there a specific word choice you're curious about?

[Alchemist21]

@PJ; Matt's posts towards Llama are a Towny opening. Whether it was reaction testing or an actual attempt at NKA, they were an attempt to get the game rolling, and his obstinate refusal to answer my questions at first are something I've seen from Town before as scum want to be more compliant with Town requests.

[Alchemist21]

I still like my AJ vote. In addition to what was brought up earlier, his "what do I gain from buddying you" question was bad. Scum buddy Town a lot, and he knows the obvious benefits to scum buddying a Townie. To suggest there was no benefit to that seems like playing innocent to me.

Rasks jump onto the wagon is noted, but I'd rather it not distract from the AJ wagon. It's also worth noting that AJ thinks Rasks vote on him was worse than me because of the context of agreeing with AJ, but then again Rask didn't explain his vote on me until someone asked him, and I didn't see anyone ask him about his AJ vote.

@Rask; Why the jump onto the AJ wagon?

@OceanWind; My post about Elyse was more or less thinking out loud. I wasn't sure about her slot and thought about how scum might benefit from her play but I couldn't see it. There could be WIFOM involved but I think more often than not scum prefer to play safe and optimally before sowing wifom. I don't think Elyse would have forgotten who she was voting for this early. Your point 2 makes sense, but at the time Matt had brought up his meta thing and there were several people suspicious of him for it, so based on the events of the game around that time, I think Matt would have been the easier wagon for her. As for Matt, his unwarranted bringing up of his meta had me raising an eyebrow, but his explanation seems feasible and it wasn't enough to reverse my read on him.

[Alchemist21]

This is why I don't understand the bullshit of 'Oh looking at things from a scum perspective is bullshit." No, that's 100% how I think in games so I can find what a scum would do.


Rask's vote is also bad. Just sitting one in there to be a part of a wagon. In the comfortable slot right in the middle and hoping it becomes popular enough that no one will notice him. In fact, his iso only has neutral or positive things to say about me. His sudden change for no reason could very easily be coming from scum.

I agree with both points here. Scum-modeling is an effective and valid way to play, though I usually avoid posting in that mindset. And that vote was dodgy as all hell.

I read it as "I'm scumreading you and I don't want to be. Do this so I don't have to anymore."

Ah, right that makes sense.

TKoE I want to address you here. Thinking about how scum would think is a fine thing to do and pretty necessary for Town, but what about when a player blatantly ignores common aspects if scumplay for their own defense? Do you agree that there was no potential benefit for scumAJ buddying Elyse?

[Alchemist21]

@PJ; Same question as to Rask, why the jump onto AJ?

[Alchemist21]

Well fuck me in the ass.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Rask

[Alchemist21]

@OceanWind; Elyse's vote staying in SO while saying more about Matt isn't the real reason I'm townreading her, it's more that when I try to think why scum her would do it it only makes sense in a scenario where she's scum with Matt. There could be wifom involved, and the read on her is weaker than you probably think, but the bottom line is I don't think there was scum motivation to her play given how events were going in the thread.

P-edit: "the post was a really long and drawn out way of calling Elyse null." While it started with me being unsure of Elyse, thinking things through brought me to a Townread on Elyse, and while it may not be a strong read, it's still a Townread and to call it a nullread is a misrep.

[Alchemist21]

I don't think scum her has a reason to play any WIFOM related to the situation at this point, and I can see Town making some of the points she's made,

so for now I think she's Town

. Elyse scum only makes sense to me if Matt is also scum, which I don't think is the case.

I consider the bolded to be a null claim because you're only saying town, but suggesting your read can go anywhere. Yes I see the next sentence and it's definitely the most precise line of the post, and I don't mind that logic if entertained with the idea that elyse scum + SO scum could be a possibility via bus. But the 'subject to change' part immediately makes me read it as null.

I think you've been around long enough to know why your post here is bullshit.

@Elyse; My main problem with Rask is that he's blindly sheeped both mine and AJ's wagons without explaining (and I don't think his retroactive explanations were that good either). My fuck me comment was because my main scumread claimed Doc, and I don't want PR's getting outed D1. I'm interested why you think it's scummy that I believe his claim if you would have also unvoted, since believing his claim is the only reason to unvote.

[Alchemist21]

@Pj; People mentioned Rask's vote which prompted me to ask about it. Afterward I looked at the votes in the wagon and noticed your vote was also naked so I asked about it too, which is why there was a delaty between them. I'm not concerned about SO right now. At some point I'll look deeper at him, but now's not the time for me. What kind of reaction were you expecting with your vote if that was the reason? There was already a wagon on AJ with reactions from him on those to look at, and I doubt you actually expected to get no scrutiny for your naked vote.

[Alchemist21]

@CKD; Do you have any gut reads yet? I'm noticing a lack of those from you.

[Alchemist21]

@PJ;

a) My timing isn't off. Those 2 votes and the mention of them by others all happened after my last post before I talked about it. If others did mention your vote then I missed it on reading through those 50ish posts, and it was just the ones about Rask that caught my eye.

b) Fine, I'll look back through his posts some time this evening when I have more time to analyze him. Nothing he's done has caught my attention so far.

c) This was my mistake. I thought Matt was still on that wagon the whole time and thought there was a 3rd person as well.

d) I did want him lynched because I thought he was scum and I was letting people know I planned on staying on the wagon. Then he claimed Doc and thought "Oh shit, I've heard of this happening to several people before." If you want I can try to dig up the MD thread where people discussed scumreading the Doc by mistake.

[Alchemist21]

Exceedingly rare post from work:

@PJ;

a) My timing isn't off. Those 2 votes and the mention of them by others all happened after my last post before I talked about it. If others did mention your vote then I missed it on reading through those 50ish posts, and it was just the ones about Rask that caught my eye.

Your timeline is wrong

again

. All the posts mentioning Raskolnikov's and my unexplained votes came

before

you asked Raskolnikov about his vote:

First, Elyse pointed it out in Post #178.
Second, Supreme Overlord talked about both votes in Post #179.
Third, Aj The Epic discussed both votes in Post #182.

You then asked only Raskolnikov about

his

vote in Post #183. After I assume you realized you would look inconsistent / overly focused on Raskolnikov, you then asked me about

my

vote in Post #185.

This -- in addition to the fact that you mistakenly thought I had joined the "wagon" on Aj The Epic when I was in fact the second vote -- is indicating you are either not reading very carefully

or

you are getting caught up in your own faked suspicions.

Vote: Alchemist21

Read my post again. I'm telling you that all that happened after my 137. My series of posts starting at 183 is when I cam back and read through the 50-some posts and commented on what caught my attention. You want to know how you cam tell I missed you being a part of their convo? Because my question to you came not in the same post, not in the next post, but 2 posts after I asked Rask. I will admit that I'm not as careful on initial readthroughs, and I am likely to miss things the first time around.

[Alchemist21]

Reading through SO'S ISO, he seems Town to me. I disagree with some (maybe the majority) of his conclusions in there, but he explains them in a way where I can understand how he got to those conclusions. I don't think there's any scum intent to his posts or his reads.

[Alchemist21]

@OceanWind & Llamafluff; You two should come to the Rask wagon. I get how you feel about AJ but it's not worth lynching a Doc claim.

[Alchemist21]

Missed a whole damn page.

TKoE, why are you filling up a post with jokes at the expense of scumhunting? Why are you not contributing to a wagon with 3 days to deadline?

You ask why my vote is still on MattP, this is a valid question, the answer is simply that I hadn't found anyone else worth putting it on,

it's not like he was at risk with my vote on him

.

I don't think this is something to be proud of at this point in the day. A vote on me, like Elyse said, isn't going to get a lynch either. I recommend switching to Rask or Alchemist, so we can wagon to a vote and claim, and go from there.

Why are the two mutually exclusive?
I don't claim to be proud of the fact, it was simply my reasoning as to why I hadn't just unvoted and left it at that.
Bit hastey for a lynch aren't you... but yes, I really should jump on a wagon, last thing we need is a no lynch.
Much like my question to Elyse, why'd you leave Aj off the list of wagons? (Because he'd already claimed?)

Unvote

VOTE: Alchemist
I'd suggest you claim now Alchemist.

I'm not claiming at L-3. Why do you think I should?

[Alchemist21]

There are still 3 days left. If I got quicklynched now before being able to claim it would mean a high probability of scum in the quicklynchers. I'm not claiming prematurely just because some people

might

vote me.

[Alchemist21]

You seem way too interested in my claim, and you haven't asked Rask for one despite him also being a potential lynch for today. If Rask flips scum I'd say there's a high chance you're his partner.

[Alchemist21]

OceanWind is now a solid Townread for me.

I'd still like Rask lynched. My vote in him was about him not explaining his votes, not having little content overall, and that he thought that's why I'm scumreading him makes me think that long post of his was meant to make us think he can provide more content and make us more hesitant to lynch him.

TKoE would be my second choice. His scumminess goes way up if Rask is scum, but it's still suspicious that he was trying to draw out an early claim from me.

Some of the recent cases on Llama make sense to me and are good enough that I'd vote here if I absolutely had to.

[Alchemist21]

OceanWind is now a solid Townread for me.

I'd still like Rask lynched. My vote in him was about him not explaining his votes, not having little content overall, and that he thought that's why I'm scumreading him makes me think that long post of his was meant to make us think he can provide more content and make us more hesitant to lynch him.

TKoE would be my second choice. His scumminess goes way up if Rask is scum, but it's still suspicious that he was trying to draw out an early claim from me.

Some of the recent cases on Llama make sense to me and are good enough that I'd vote here

if I absolutely had to.

Can you expand a bit more here? What "cases" on Llama made sense to you specifically? Why am I solid townread? Was it because I went through Llamafluff's Aj The Epic case and attacked him for it? Because I had a strong initial reaction that his case was scummy but going back and looking at it, I changed my mind because he does make some good points and the bad points aren't as bad.

Can you explain the context of the bolded part? Why do you phrase it that way? What was your read on Llamafluff before and what is it now?

What is your read on Aj The Epic?

I think AJ (who I think is Town) was right about the parts where Llama looks like he's twisting words to push a read onto AJ, and I agreed with your point on how Llama is using something subjective to push his AJ read after he said he had a problem with a subjective point. I also disagree with what Llama said about AJ not giving more attention to the game. He may not have much passion, but following his claim he did put out a more inclusive readslist, and he's continued to regularly engage rather than go into defeated silence. These reasons are enough to put him in my scumreads, but still weaker than the reasons I want the other 2 lynched, and I would much rather lynch them instead. I didn't really like Llama's earlier post about AJ not crumbing, but I thought that might just be because Llama thinks Docs should always crumb and I had him as null before now.

My read in you isn't specifically tied to your posts on Aj or Llama (actually I think it's more from your posts on Xtoxm). I think your posts show a level of critical thinking that I don't think would come from a scum mindset. Also, if you were scum I would think you'd be more likely to throw doubt onto Xtoxm's intro given how you had reason to believe he had thoughts on the game before joining and then maybe attack him for trying to derail the current wagons this close to deadline. That you didn't do either of those things shows me you're Town thinking things through and not just scum looking to push suspicions on anybody they can.

[Alchemist21]

Mine?

[Alchemist21]

If somehow a TKoE wagon happened I'd go there, but there's only 12 hours left so I doubt it.

Intent to Hammer Llama

[Alchemist21]

Going to do a quick re-read in the next couple of hours and figure out whether I want to switch. In the meantime:

If somehow a TKoE wagon happened I'd go there, but there's only 12 hours left so I doubt it.

Intent to Hammer Llama

Was there a reason you didn't vote Llamafluff when you posted a picture yesterday?

I was still hopeful for one of the other 2 wagons I wanted.

[Alchemist21]

I'm going to give Elyse some time (about an hour) to catch up and get her thoughts out for the Day then I'll hammer. I think everyone else has said their final piece.

[Alchemist21]

You caught me just in time. How long will it take you? Do you think we'll still be able to get a TKoE wagon at this point?

[Alchemist21]

I'd be ok with TKOE, he is among my suspects especially if Llama is really town.

Rask, Ocean, Alchemist, Llama (in self defence) and me would be L-1, i'm sure someone would be willing to hammer.

It's possible, but do we want to do it?

I've also become suspicious of CKD with his oddball votes on me and Ocean, and general lack of desire to bring this day to a pro-town conclusion.

Switch xtoxm with elyse's vote (since xtoxm won't be on) and it's still enough for an L-1 (assuming Llama's still online). Is there anyone else who would join?

[Alchemist21]

Oh xtoxm came back. That's enough support for a lynch there then.

VOTE: TKoE

[Alchemist21]

^That's L-1 btw.

[Alchemist21]

Newbies who browse through the Wiki could. It's his use of the phrase X-shot over specifying his number of shots that makes me think he got his claim from looking through roles in the Wiki, as his roke PM would say 1-shot, 2-shot, etc. rather than X-shot. It even says on the page for commuters it's not an implausible fakeclaim for scum.

[Alchemist21]

Also keep in mind scum claiming doc are guaranteed to die the next day when they survive the Night. A commuter can simply say they commuted or that scum didn't want to risk wasting a kill to explain their survival.

[Alchemist21]

You wouldn't be a valuable target. That's the point - you would have an explanation for surviving the Night Phase whereas AJ wouldn't.

@Ocean; I don't know. I wouldn't start considering the existence of extra killing roles unless they show up. With what information is available I can't make a reasonable guess of how the game is balanced.

[Alchemist21]

My argument makes perfect sense, and I don't think you truly fail to comprehend it.

Someone please hammer him.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Raskolnikov

In addition to what I said yesterday, there's also the fact that TKoE and Rask never interacted and barely formed stances on each other, and I noticed their votes together on Matt. Rask was the first vote on TKoE yesterday, but it was at a time when it looked doubtful anyone other than Llamafluff was getting lynched and I suspect it was done more to look good by being off the Llama lynch, and if TKoE was lynched later on he could point to it as evidence he's Town (this also makes me think Llama is Town here).

I don't really want AJ lynched right now just because of all the wifom around him still being alive. I want to know who he protected last night though and why. He might be a good goto after Rask if the game's still going.

P.S. I think I misinterpreted part of xtoxm's question about the balance of the game, and think I didn't realize he was asking about the number of scum I think would be in the game. After thinking on it, if I were modding and trying to balance a game around having 11 players, I'd probably have 2 scum and a traitor, since it's stronger than 2 but weaker than 3.

[Alchemist21]

Yeah, that's a good point about not trying to draw the NK (unless it's the type that gets recruited if it's targeted, but do they even run that type these days?)

[Alchemist21]

He said he agreed with Llama's posts before a wagon on him developed, and if it hadn't been for CKD's hammer on TKoE then he might not have been lynched given how people were viewing the commuter claim. I don't think CKD is scum in that situation.

[Alchemist21]

@Raskolnikov -

I want to see a full claim and night action results.

Bodyguard. N1 went on nobody, N2 I actually went on AJ on the off chance he was really was doc and attacked. If he actually was doc and I died I figured you guys would put it together that I was probably on him. I don't really mind outing to 1 for 1 tbh, this role is pretty lame and if I get killed tonight it's literally the same if I pulled off a save anyways.

Was your lack of a N0 target intentional or due to "forgetfulness?"

I really don't believe this claim, not only because of the lack of a N0 target but because he claims to have protected the very same player he was trying to lynch without having to counterclaim. If a bodyguard had been NK'd it probably would have been an autolynch for AJ since nobody would believe a doc and bodyguard are in the same game.

[Alchemist21]

And if AJ is Doc and Rask is scum and AJ gets lynched, a claimed investigative PR is screwed.

[Alchemist21]

GG everyone! Disappointed I was wrong on Rask/AJ, and surprised there were only 2 scum in the game, but it was the most fun I've had in a game in a while.