UNI MUM Mafia (Day 3, Stay Gold Pony)

[Jeanne11]

So now you're thinking that I am scum?

[Jeanne11]

For that, you get a boot to the head!

[Cerberus v666]

It's possible. It's unlikely, but totally possible, so don't go booting me for being properly paranoid!

[RolePlay25]

Mod: If a player has multiple targeting active night abilities, how many could they activate in a single night phase?

[Elbirn]

If we are giving anything any kind of weaponish thing, we are giving desperado to a scummy player and have them shoot another scummy player.

Oh I did get confirmation from the mod that I redirect to myself when I roleblock. So yeah, jeanne/LH/elbirn love triangle is on the up and up, all is accounted for.

I'd kinda rather dream up/give KC a day cop if possible? Could that be a thing or is that dumb?

[DiamondSentinel]

Hmm, thank you for that!

VOTE: Learned Hand

[dramonic]

Mod: If a player has multiple targeting active night abilities, how many could they activate in a single night phase?

One.

Votecount in a moment.

[Cerberus v666]

Hmm, thank you for that!

VOTE: Learned Hand

Thanks!

Okay, so, umm, with just the IC remaining, who ya know, I know won't lie to us,

If you roleblocked someone last night, YOU MUST SPEAK UP NOW.

I know you, Elbirn, redirected/blocked LH.

So, everyone else.

Do not end the day for 24 hours

. Do not do any action with the dreamer for 24 hours. If nobody speaks up by then, i am going to assume no other roleblocks went on.

That is all, and trust me, I have very good reason to be addressing this issue in this circumspect fashion.

In the meantime, we still need to find other scum. There are other people around besides just LH. Maybe let's talk about them for a bit okay?

[dramonic]

Votecount 19: You people post too much

Learned Hand (4): Davsto, Mass Flop, Jeanne11, DiamondSentinel
mass flop (1): 3dicerolling
Elbirn (1): Learned Hand

Not voting: Cerberus v666, Shiro, Elbirn, EAP, Roleplay25, klingoncelt, zmuffinman, Firebringer

8 to lynch, 13 day and 17 hours to deadline!

[RolePlay25]

Mod: If a player has multiple targeting active night abilities, how many could they activate in a single night phase?

One.

Votecount in a moment.

Would factional abilities count for this purpose, and would that answer change if there is only a single member of the mafia faction?

If so, and if LH is scum (cart before flip, I am aware) this really, really, really changes the game. Everyone with a targeting night ability that's confirmable suddenly becomes confirmed town.

Honestly if we shoot LH and they're scum, I say it's mass claim day today.

[dramonic]

A single scum cannot kill and act on the same night, no.

[Elbirn]

If so, and if LH is scum (cart before flip, I am aware) this really, really, really changes the game. Everyone with a targeting night ability that's confirmable suddenly becomes confirmed town.

Honestly if we shoot LH and they're scum, I say it's mass claim day today.

Too right mate

So...Zmuffin would be in this category with his useless ability I believe. I've got my roleblock is confirmable. Who else?

Like this is just a good idea regardless once were down to one scum.

...

.......which we won't know when that is. How would we know? How many scum are we expecting in a game this size?

[RolePlay25]

Four. A good rule of thumb for design is 3 Town for every 1 scum. So 7:2 (9 P), 10:3 (13P), 13:4 (17P) and... oh look, we're at 17. What a coincidence.

Third parties can muddy the waters, of course, assuming they exist.

[RolePlay25]

Eh, since Cerb is making me wait, hello random MD chat! The reason this is a rule of thumb, by the by, is that it gives a town 1 mislynch for every scum lynch.

Before about 6 years or so ago (gosh!) it was common to have even number games. This gave the scum the victory if the town lynched 50/50. Once the trend started towards less town power, the inherent silliness of even numbers became apparent, and it moved to odd standard, giving the town a victory if you lynch 50/50. This is fair - from a statistical perspective, a town lynch is much easier to have, in a vacuum, than a scum lynch. It should also inform your actions - the best town players probably have an accuracy of around 50% - but this would be enough, before power roles, to guarantee a town victory. That should be reasonably terrifying when you consider it.

Of course power roles play a factor. Without any, 11:2 vanilla is considered "theoretically balanced", although the most data we have is from 10:2s (10:2 is hilariously scumsided, even beyond what you would expect from raw statistics). Thus you can consider in a 10:3 game that PRs are expected to kill one scum and save one town for the game to be balanced. This should inform your decisions on the strength of the town when you are judging claims.

Of course theme games are different. "The uncertainty" is probably a few negative PRs, because theme roles are weird, theme games are not as tightly balanced as normal games typically are, and you can expect a general confusion to reign. This was codified as "Stoofer's Law" - beyond a certain point, adding more PRs is negative utility to the town. In role madness games you have to kind of try to ride that one out. It's going to occur - town power roles will be distrusted and mislynched, town night results will be fucked with by other townies, etc.

Overall, if we brush aside the fog, I think this is actually fairly close to a Large Normal 13:4 with a lot of our modifiers and addendums not doing anything except contributing to the general noise level of the town. I'm not certain, yet, but it's a feeling I have. Which means, by the by, that this would be a 12(11):2:(1?) right now, which is horribly town sided. Not necessarily a reason to open Champaign on day 2 and start celebrating, but day 1 went about as well as it could possibly be expected for a day 1 to go. Remember, 11:2 would be balanced WITHOUT power roles, so... yeah.

[Learned Hand]

Eh, since Cerb is making me wait, hello random MD chat! The reason this is a rule of thumb, by the by, is that it gives a town 1 mislynch for every scum lynch.

Before about 6 years or so ago (gosh!) it was common to have even number games. This gave the scum the victory if the town lynched 50/50. Once the trend started towards less town power, the inherent silliness of even numbers became apparent, and it moved to odd standard, giving the town a victory if you lynch 50/50. This is fair - from a statistical perspective, a town lynch is much easier to have, in a vacuum, than a scum lynch. It should also inform your actions - the best town players probably have an accuracy of around 50% - but this would be enough, before power roles, to guarantee a town victory. That should be reasonably terrifying when you consider it.

Of course power roles play a factor. Without any, 11:2 vanilla is considered "theoretically balanced", although the most data we have is from 10:2s (10:2 is hilariously scumsided, even beyond what you would expect from raw statistics). Thus you can consider in a 10:3 game that PRs are expected to kill one scum and save one town for the game to be balanced. This should inform your decisions on the strength of the town when you are judging claims.

Of course theme games are different. "The uncertainty" is probably a few negative PRs, because theme roles are weird, theme games are not as tightly balanced as normal games typically are, and you can expect a general confusion to reign. This was codified as "Stoofer's Law" - beyond a certain point, adding more PRs is negative utility to the town.

In role madness games you have to kind of try to ride that one out. It's going to occur - town power roles will be distrusted and mislynched

, town night results will be fucked with by other townies, etc.

Overall, if we brush aside the fog, I think this is actually fairly close to a Large Normal 13:4 with a lot of our modifiers and addendums not doing anything except contributing to the general noise level of the town. I'm not certain, yet, but it's a feeling I have. Which means, by the by, that this would be a 12(11):2:(1?) right now, which is horribly town sided. Not necessarily a reason to open Champaign on day 2 and start celebrating, but day 1 went about as well as it could possibly be expected for a day 1 to go. Remember, 11:2 would be balanced WITHOUT power roles, so... yeah.

Emphasis mine. Setting up for our flip are you?

[RolePlay25]

@LH: Sure

[3dicerolling]

Lol, are you throwing shade on Roleplay? Please stop throwing shade on roleplay.

[Learned Hand]

Quite the opposite. I think RP has come to realize we're town. He just gave an explanation ahead of time for exactly why we're going to be mislynched. At a certain point, power roles become negative utility for various reasons. In this case, combine Titus being stubborn (which is the only reason she refused to look at Itle once she made up her mind) with a role claim you guys won't believe until you see our role card ... and that's all it apparently takes for a mislynch.

I would say his point is very apt on straight on target.

~Drixx

[Elbirn]

I think drixx is being silly

RP 4 scum is reasonable and I have to admit it's what I was expecting, but I was hit with a curiosity that there might be 5..? Does that sound reasonable or is that too many scum?

At any rate 3 is certainly too few.

Yaaay pointless set up spec
Am I helping
Guys am I helping

[3dicerolling]

I think drixx is being silly

RP 4 scum is reasonable and I have to admit it's what I was expecting, but I was hit with a curiosity that there might be 5..? Does that sound reasonable or is that too many scum?

At any rate 3 is certainly too few.

Yaaay pointless set up spec
Am I helping
Guys am I helping

What about multiball? Also, if you think it's multiball, do you feel that changes your opinion on Learned hand?

[Learned Hand]

I think what bothers me the most about what's going on is that there is a way to dream our role card being posted, which would at least force scum to kill us. Once we gained conftown status, only exceptionally ballsy or really dumb scum would leave us alive for any longer than absolutely necessary. Shit on Titus all you want but I can link you to game after game where she figures shit out when nobody else can see it. Shit on me for being relatively new to the site if you want. Tell me I'm terrible. Then go read the 60,000 word hydra chat from the SU game and reassess your assumptions. Different from you doesn't mean I'm shit. It just means I approach things differently. Bottom line is we both do well as the game progresses, and anyone who has played with us knows it.

So why are we going with the anti-town plan that completely squanders getting any utility out of us when there's a better plan? You guys work through the language and ask Dram all the questions you want to make sure it's airtight, and get the dream to flip our role card. Then you can be like "Oh shit, we were wrong." without having wasted a town controlled shot or lynch to arrive at that conclusion. Then it's quite possible we can work the game out since we won't be spending time fighting to stay in the game to get to the part we're good at (and let's be honest: we all have ego, and we all play for the parts we like ... Titus and I both just happen to be stronger late than early. We're not gut players. I personally don't believe gut is a legit thing, as people commonly refer to it. That's another conversation though).

Like seriously. Dream our role card up and then let us do what we can. We may or may not be right, but you'll have the use of us and be able to trust our motives while we last, and scum will have to use up a limited resource (their night kill, in case that wasn't super obviously clear) to get rid of us. I expect we'll provide more utility than that, but at least allow us the utility of drawing a night kill because today's dream flipped our role card.

The problem with the give Dave a desperado thing is that if it doesn't work out as expected (Gee, I wonder if Dramonic will look for any loopholes to avoid the intent of the plan?) and he kills us, all you find out is we were telling the truth. You still have his claimed negative utility there that scum will never kill and force you to waste a lynch on. (Awful role, btw. I can't imagine a worse role than one the town has to waste a mislynch on, and miller is almost universally viewed as that. Dramonic invented the BASF version Miller role with this shit Dave has).

~D

[RolePlay25]

@LH: Town 'second lynch of the day' granter is an awesome role though, so if he gets another daykill I'm quite fine with that. Scum felt a burning need to kill the last one, and it was on a miller. Also

[Learned Hand]

@LH: Town 'second lynch of the day' granter is an awesome role though, so if he gets another daykill I'm quite fine with that. Scum felt a burning need to kill the last one, and it was on a miller. Also

He's not just a miller though. He actually shortens the game for scum if they don't kill him, presuming his claim is true (and I see nothing that contradicts it). Didn't you make a strong argument for how absurdly negative utility his role is just recently?

~D

[Elbirn]

I think drixx is being silly

RP 4 scum is reasonable and I have to admit it's what I was expecting, but I was hit with a curiosity that there might be 5..? Does that sound reasonable or is that too many scum?

At any rate 3 is certainly too few.

Yaaay pointless set up spec
Am I helping
Guys am I helping

What about multiball? Also, if you think it's multiball, do you feel that changes your opinion on Learned hand?

I don't think multi ball

For one I've never played one in my like 20 games on site so it's not even something I think about

On top of that we have 2 dead scum with the same flavor, none of which indicates scum

So yeah.

[Elbirn]

Just a public service announcement: Remember that claiming WILL NOT determine alignment! Just because someone claims doesn't mean that they are town. They can be telling the truth about their claim and still be scum. It is for this reason that I highly recommend AGAINST any more claiming as it gets us virtually nowhere.

I really want to lynch LH, but if they really are proven, then this sucks.

It's funny how the 2 scummiest people are proven. KC is innocent child, and LH apparently was targeted by weak-jeanne.

Hmm, thank you for that!

VOTE: Learned Hand

Did we determine that this guy is town already?
Cuz I can see a world in which LH is somehow town and DS is really pissed that he might lose a mislynch. Like he is way too over eager and is upset about lh being town possibly, like dafuk?