Secret Hitler (Voting)

[Cephrir]

Yes, i seemed to have totally ignored 'if lilith is scum, then so is drench' when i pointed out cephrir stated the exact same thing, to later claim never having seen the investigation-result that made it so.

i don't think i ever stated that.

[Cephrir]

That doesn't make much sense either. 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 = somewhere around 25% chance of getting 3 fascist policies. Whereas there's a 11/17 * 10/16 * 6/15 = about 15% chance of getting 2 fascist cards and one liberal card. By jelly's info we confirm that there were at least 2 fascist cards so it's actually more likely that Drench had 3 fascist policies than 2 fascist and 1 liberal.

true

but

eh

[shos]

A lilith-town-drench-scum acenario is still entirely possible. We will know better later in the game though for statistics regarding drench's 3-fascist draw

[MrTrow]

You asked me yes or no questions that I feel were only asked in order to discredit me.

You mean the holes in your argument for why you chose shos as your chancellor i asked you to clear up?
Ok i'll clear those up:
You claim shos' argument for going AGAINST the 'investigate down the line'-tactic as a reason to like him (the investigation on you)
Yet you take the 'investigate down the line'-tactic as the sole reason, to not even consider Klick and Cephrir.
Can you explain why?

You claim to not get what acronis is doing (can't blame you there)
Yet you dislike JDGA, for having put in the effort to understand the guy.
Can you explain why?

I asked everyone who stated a townread on shos, to explain that read (this includes you) and explicitly stated i would vote no unless that explanation came.
Yet you nominated him with more than 48h left on the clock, over a stated null-read without such an explanation.
Can you explain why?

My point is that if you're a liberal, and you think I'm liberal, then you are arguing with me because you think I'm wrong about shos. But you're not trying to persuade me

I'm not? I repeatedly stated:
- 'this post proves he was insincere in this previous one (or the other way around, or both)'
- This action as pushed by him, hurts town
- If anyone can point me to a single sincere pro-town post, this guy ever made, please do, cause i'm not seeing it
And now i'm pushing the only person who might have something to lose, by keeping to ignore the obvious. (other than, the entire game, of-course)

As for your last two questions, I'm confused by what you're asking. Can you clarify?

Sure thing:

If you believe the legislative session will be indicative of shos' allignment, why did you actively avoid getting a read?

You said:

If you think I'm liberal but aren't townreading shos, then you'll have your confirmation after the legislative session.

For this confirmation to happen, you will have to hand him a choice (one of each policy) AND (if scum) shos must consider it 'worth it' for the fascists to be caught choosing the fascist-one.

If you think it would be in the fascists best interest to place that policy, even if it means getting caught (in a 2v1 (where one of the opponents already has a dirty record)), why would you want to give him that shot?

And did you just really spend more time on writing an excuse to stop answering than it would take to ask me to clear up whatever you consider unclear enough to put another fascist in government?

I read

I don't see how I would convince you to support my election in any case.

as an excuse to avoid answering questions. A typical shos-post basically.
I have my answer on that issue.

My main reason for thinking you're liberal at this point is the fact that it was shos who insisted you'd be investigated.
I doubt he would deliberately link his buddies.

Yes, i seemed to have totally ignored 'if lilith is scum, then so is drench' when i pointed out cephrir stated the exact same thing, to later claim never having seen the investigation-result that made it so.

i don't think i ever stated that.

I took

Not a lilith fan either. And Drench I guess but only for math, not for play

to mean that. (cleared up now)

That doesn't make much sense either. 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 = somewhere around 25% chance of getting 3 fascist policies. Whereas there's a 11/17 * 10/16 * 6/15 = about 15% chance of getting 2 fascist cards and one liberal card. By jelly's info we confirm that there were at least 2 fascist cards so it's actually more likely that Drench had 3 fascist policies than 2 fascist and 1 liberal.

true

but

eh

No this math is not correct.
That is the chance Drench drew 2 fascist cards and THEN a liberal one.
If we take 'the liberal card could have been the first or the second' into consideration, we're talking about 45%
And then there is the 24% chance of 2 fascist cards in the draw (also implicating Jelly)

[shos]

^^^ this guy is dope

[Cephrir]

No this math is not correct.
That is the chance Drench drew 2 fascist cards and THEN a liberal one.
If we take 'the liberal card could have been the first or the second' into consideration, we're talking about 45%
And then there is the 24% chance of 2 fascist cards in the draw (also implicating Jelly)

i'm embarrassed that i missed this.

[lilith2013]

Oops. Combinatorics was always my least favorite part of probability. My math was wrong but my point still stands; given that Jelly said he received two fascist cards, it's more likely that Drench had 3.

I'll respond to the rest of your post in a bit.

[lilith2013]

You asked me yes or no questions that I feel were only asked in order to discredit me.

You mean the holes in your argument for why you chose shos as your chancellor i asked you to clear up?

No, I mean the way that you asked questions seemed like they were phrased so that however I answered I would come out the worse for it.

Ok i'll clear those up:
You claim shos' argument for going AGAINST the 'investigate down the line'-tactic as a reason to like him (the investigation on you)
Yet you take the 'investigate down the line'-tactic as the sole reason, to not even consider Klick and Cephrir.
Can you explain why?

Shos' idea was to investigate me and then have me choose someone at the end of the list as my chancellor. I think his reasoning for why I should be investigated was good, because based on the information we have about the deck, there should be a fairly good chance at least one liberal card shows up in the hand the next president gets. However, that doesn't invalidate the logic for why a chancellor near the end of the list should be chosen. I think the combination of the two is fine.

You claim to not get what acronis is doing (can't blame you there)
Yet you dislike JDGA, for having put in the effort to understand the guy.
Can you explain why?

I don't believe she put in effort into understanding him. I said she sounded like she was blindly sheeping. Here's what she said about Aronis:

Aronis is probably talking the most sense right now in general.

JDGA, I'm not sure I understand how Aronis makes the most sense at the time of your statement. Something just seems off about your post in 52. I don't like it.

His posts were short, but saying things I pretty much completely agreed with. Given you just said Trow was scummy because of how he posts a lot, you understand where I'm coming from, right?

I'm probably fine with an Aronis nomination? At least, I'll vote yes if he's nominated.

My issue is that up until this point, most of the things Aronis had said were not really contributions at all.

I got liberal. I wanted to be a conservative. Drench, if I elect u will u create a welfare system so that I can never have 2 go 2 work again and live off the government?

This is totally off topic.

Drench if I elect u do u promise 2 ban all guns and never pass any facist policies that would lead to the president having the power to kill somebody?

Also, what's your stance on abortion?

Again, completely irrelevant to the game.

I am trying to ask you srs questions regarding what your policies would be as president and your lack of legitimate answers has me srsly concerned about your qualifications for this position.

Yet again, off topic.

Ummm no. I object. That's a dumb plan that clearly benefits lilith the most. If you pick her I am voting no.

I suggested a plan and all he says is "no that's dumb because it benefits lilith." There is no alternative suggestion and no underlying reasoning offered. Never mind how dumb my idea was, he didn't bother to contribute by offering his own idea.

I'm also going to oppose any government including mr trow for his unecessary rudeness towards shos and his failure to act like a dignified politician.

Again, I don't think this is relevant to the game. Unnecessary rudeness and failure to act like a dignified politician do not a fascist make, and opposing a ballot solely for these reasons without offering alternatives or actual analysis of anything is just not helpful. So what exactly was there about Aronis' posts to agree with? How did his posts, out of all the people in the game, make the most sense? Basically the only things of substance that he had said were: 1) my plan is dumb, will vote no to lilith, and 2) will vote no to Trow. And somehow JDGA's strongest townread was on Aronis. That doesn't make any sense to me.

I asked everyone who stated a townread on shos, to explain that read (this includes you) and explicitly stated i would vote no unless that explanation came.
Yet you nominated him with more than 48h left on the clock, over a stated null-read without such an explanation.
Can you explain why?

I'm an impatient person?

My point is that if you're a liberal, and you think I'm liberal, then you are arguing with me because you think I'm wrong about shos. But you're not trying to persuade me

I'm not? I repeatedly stated:
- 'this post proves he was insincere in this previous one (or the other way around, or both)'
- This action as pushed by him, hurts town
- If anyone can point me to a single sincere pro-town post, this guy ever made, please do, cause i'm not seeing it
And now i'm pushing the only person who might have something to lose, by keeping to ignore the obvious. (other than, the entire game, of-course)

When you're talking to me, you flinging questions at me makes me think you care more about winning the argument than helping me see your side of things.

As for your last two questions, I'm confused by what you're asking. Can you clarify?

Sure thing:

If you believe the legislative session will be indicative of shos' allignment, why did you actively avoid getting a read?

You said:

If you think I'm liberal but aren't townreading shos, then you'll have your confirmation after the legislative session.

For this confirmation to happen, you will have to hand him a choice (one of each policy) AND (if scum) shos must consider it 'worth it' for the fascists to be caught choosing the fascist-one.

If you think it would be in the fascists best interest to place that policy, even if it means getting caught (in a 2v1 (where one of the opponents already has a dirty record)), why would you want to give him that shot?

There's a pretty low chance that I'll get 2 liberal cards, so I'm assuming that I will be handing him 1 fascist and 1 liberal. If you think he is fascist, you'll be proven right if he chooses a fascist card. I admit I didn't think about him choosing a liberal card as a fascist and he could certainly do so, but we would still have passed a liberal policy.

And did you just really spend more time on writing an excuse to stop answering than it would take to ask me to clear up whatever you consider unclear enough to put another fascist in government?

I read

I don't see how I would convince you to support my election in any case.

as an excuse to avoid answering questions. A typical shos-post basically.
I have my answer on that issue.

Again, I'm willing to answer questions. Just not when the tone you take is very aggressive.

My main reason for thinking you're liberal at this point is the fact that it was shos who insisted you'd be investigated.
I doubt he would deliberately link his buddies.

Not sure I see it like this, but alright.

[lilith2013]

@Cephrir:

Now that you know Drench's investigation on me came up liberal, who are your fascist-reads?

[Aronis]

I was gonna vote ja! until you started bashing me for exbiting my right of free speech and expressing my liberal views. looks like I'll have to go with nein instead.

[Cephrir]

@Cephrir:

Now that you know Drench's investigation on me came up liberal, who are your fascist-reads?

The same, only minus you for now

[JDGA]

Whoa, missed that shos got nominated. Um, yeah, no. shos has been playing pretty terribly the entire game, the "extra investigation" isn't worth getting a second fascist policy given that there's a good chance one-fascist one-liberal be the result whenever we accept any parliament.

[Cephrir]

shos always plays terribly, it doesn't make him scum, just terrible

[Drench]

haha yeah check out me waltzing back into this thread

where are people gettig this shos = scum read from because i'm pinging town on him so much like wth

[Cephrir]

jdga is probably getting it from her fascist role pm

[Drench]

sick burn

ugh okay i reread and basically a) math bullshit feels like its useless content until we have more than one round under our belt tbh b) interested to hear from every nein voter why they did so c) save me from these walls @lilith, trow

[MrTrow]

@lilith:
So your problem with Aronis (apart from the amount of completely empty fluff), is he doesn't want me to be chancellor based on my tone alone.
Yet you don't want me to be chancellor (and are selective in which questions to answer (despite that outlook, you've answered significantly more than i would expect)) based on my tone alone.
Care to explain?

@Drench:
On one hand we have:
'hey shos, care to explain why you suggested to install the chancellor who just enacted a fascist policy, based on nothing more than the word of the president who just enacted a fascist policy' getting 'lol, no' as an answer (and that not being a surprise, as it perfectly matches his play the entire game thusfar)
On the other we have:
I asked, pretty much everyone, 'can you point me to a single sincere pro-town post this guy made, anywhere in this game' and not a single person being able to do so.

As for why i voted 'nein' (restated for those who fear walls):
I had reasons to assume that government would install a fascist policy, i was proven right: any 'ja'-voter ready to backup their, now proven to be anti-town, vote?
I also have reasons to assume this one will

[Drench]

you do realize that there were 11 fascist cards in the deck right

but this is more mathematical bullshit, it'll be clear in time

[Cephrir]

I had reasons to assume that government would install a fascist policy, i was proven right: any 'ja'-voter ready to backup their, now proven to be anti-town, vote?

rofl

[ForWhomTheJellyRolls]

I asked, pretty much everyone, 'can you point me to a single sincere pro-town post this guy made, anywhere in this game' and not a single person being able to do so.

So you don't get it into your head that the lack of anyone responding to this has any meaning other than activity or whatever.

Come on people, start talking!

Shos encourages discussion, pro town. It's maybe not the towniest town thing there ever was but it's a pro town post.

I think we should go down the line (Drench picks me as Chancellor, then I pick Piggy as Chancellor, and so on). It would give us the most connection between ballots and voting patterns, at least until we have a better idea of who could be a fascist.

bad idea, it robs town of information of who-chose-who and benefits scum probably if by any chance they are one above each other.

Obviously yes I want to be elected, because I know I'm a liberal and it allows me to figure out whether the other person in my ballot is too. At least I'm trying to contribute here. Do you have a better idea?

this feels fake as hell

Discouraging from this idea feels town

Is there a point to reminding Jelly the options are confirmable?
Other than the obvious of-course.

As for Jelly's 'i felt you made claims you couldn't back up, but i can't back it up'
I think i'm ready to vote.

I think we're off better with a fascist removing a fascist card from the game and addint a liberal final choice, than the other way around+we know he's fascist.

well, if I hadn't said that, he might have chosen a fascist policy and thrown away a liberal one, and later we'd get it and kill him or something.

if I DO say it, then he probably would choose the liberal if he has 1/2 choice, instead of dying; so I think it's better. We have three times more likely to get a fascist; assuming president is liberal, he'll probably pass on a 1/2 to the chancellor, so it's better.

He's trying to dissuade me from picking a fascist card if I had gotten 1 liberal 1 fascist and if I was a fascist who didn't know the game very well. I don't know if the logic is quite all there but I think it's genuine.

There's about 25% chance to have all fascist cards on the first round. if we start getting more liberals then it could make sense; and after 5 governments we'll have real good chances to check out what the presidents say. For now, we have reason to suspect Drench. But he is the one choosing the actions, so that's sorta useless. no reason to re-involve Jelly.

In my opinoin, Drench should investigate the next president candidate, which is Lilith. if she comes out town, then we know we can trust her with passing 2 cards, and likely we can test/get liberal stuff enacted. If she's scum, then obviously we will vote nein and kill her when we can.

I think there are merits to his argument to investigate Lilith who was next on the list here.

Saying whoever he wants is being useless. The idea is to hekp him want the correct peraon, lol.

This was in response to my ambivalence as to who should be investigated. I couldn't form a strong opinion either way, and he's right that it wasn't helpful. He's being pro town by discouraging opinions that are useless in this case.

I had reasons to assume that government would install a fascist policy, i was proven right: any 'ja'-voter ready to backup their, now proven to be anti-town, vote?
I also have reasons to assume this one will

I'd vote Ja again on that. We had little information to go on because the game started and I know I'm Liberal so it had a good shot at succeeding. Odds are we're going to be able to find out how likely it is that Drench drew three fascist policies. The fact that the vote didn't succeed means I have good reason to be wary of Drench if we keep getting fascist policies.


EDIT: The quote tag was messing up.

[lilith2013]

@lilith:
So your problem with Aronis (apart from the amount of completely empty fluff), is he doesn't want me to be chancellor based on my tone alone.
Yet you don't want me to be chancellor (and are selective in which questions to answer (despite that outlook, you've answered significantly more than i would expect)) based on my tone alone.
Care to explain?

My problem with Aronis is mostly that he is not attempting to contribute. Part of that is because his reason for disliking you doesn't seem valid to me, yes, but more importantly he didn't have anything else to offer other than your tone. If he had said something about your logic or about disagreeing with what you had said then I would consider that more seriously, but I don't think tone (by itself, at least) is a good way to read someone, because everyone is going to approach the game differently. My not choosing you as my chancellor isn't based on your tone, but on your arguing with Jelly (most of it didn't make sense to me and I'll need to reread your posts at some point in order to understand what was going on) and on your reasons for voting no to the last ballot.

If there are any questions I have failed to address, please repeat them so I can try to answer.

[MrTrow]

@Drench: I am aware of the 1 in 4 chance, the fact you enacted a fascist policy does not prove you are a fascist.
I am also aware that (unless he is scum AND you are not) shos had no way of knowing that is what happened(and i'm not assuming it anytime soon either), when HE proposed YOUR word should be the sole deciding factor in installing Jelly as president.

@Jelly: yeeeeeeeeaaaaaah, fucking finally.

Come on people, start talking!

Shos encourages discussion, pro town. It's maybe not the towniest town thing there ever was but it's a pro town post.

Shown to be bullshit
And, no he does not

I think we should go down the line (Drench picks me as Chancellor, then I pick Piggy as Chancellor, and so on). It would give us the most connection between ballots and voting patterns, at least until we have a better idea of who could be a fascist.

bad idea, it robs town of information of who-chose-who and benefits scum probably if by any chance they are one above each other.

Obviously yes I want to be elected, because I know I'm a liberal and it allows me to figure out whether the other person in my ballot is too. At least I'm trying to contribute here. Do you have a better idea?

this feels fake as hell

Discouraging from this idea feels town

Refuses to state a better idea.
Also giving him credit for discouraging a plan that, at that time has already been opposed by:
Arconis, me, JDGA, you,Drench and not supported by anyone,
not seeing it.

He's trying to dissuade me from picking a fascist card if I had gotten 1 liberal 1 fascist and if I was a fascist who didn't know the game very well. I don't know if the logic is quite all there but I think it's genuine

Really?
That's what you think he meant with:

Jelly, after you are chosen, and choose a policy, tell us which options you had; and then Drench will confirm.

That makes one of us

I think there are merits to his argument to investigate Lilith who was next on the list here.

You just slapped the town-label on him for NOT wanting to investigate the next in line (when the rest of the game made it perfectly clear he couldn't push that strategy)

Saying whoever he wants is being useless. The idea is to hekp him want the correct peraon, lol.

This was in response to my ambivalence as to who should be investigated. I couldn't form a strong opinion either way, and he's right that it wasn't helpful. He's being pro town by discouraging opinions that are useless in this case.

And as shown above, every single action he actually took, shows he has no intent to actually make this happen.
I must admit though, taken on its own merits, this would be the 'pro-town'-post i was asking for: it's obviously not sincere though.

Scary part: this still is the best shos-town case out there


@Lilith

his reason for disliking you doesn't seem valid to me, yes, but more importantly he didn't have anything else to offer other than your tone.

His argument against me, was pure policy. (when there was very little else)
I disagree with your conclusion(on how this impacts his allignment, not the usefulness) , but see no reason to doubt your motivation in that statement.
Still would like a reason why you even considered the possibility of shos-town (i'm still leaning 'nein')

[shos]

@lilith:
So your problem with Aronis (apart from the amount of completely empty fluff), is he doesn't want me to be chancellor based on my tone alone.
Yet you don't want me to be chancellor (and are selective in which questions to answer (despite that outlook, you've answered significantly more than i would expect)) based on my tone alone.
Care to explain?

@Drench:
On one hand we have:
'hey shos, care to explain why you suggested to install the chancellor who just enacted a fascist policy, based on nothing more than the word of the president who just enacted a fascist policy' getting 'lol, no' as an answer (and that not being a surprise, as it perfectly matches his play the entire game thusfar)
On the other we have:
I asked, pretty much everyone, 'can you point me to a single sincere pro-town post this guy made, anywhere in this game' and not a single person being able to do so.

As for why i voted 'nein' (restated for those who fear walls):
I had reasons to assume that government would install a fascist policy, i was proven right: any 'ja'-voter ready to backup their, now proven to be anti-town, vote?
I also have reasons to assume this one will

no, because there wasn't any reason. the game needed to be started.
also, you are the one who needs to do the legwork. you are the one saying that all myposts sound non-sincere, so explain that,don't tell the others to do your work. you have noreason to suspect me.

[shos]

Trow, jsut readyour post - youhave to realize this game is not mafia. things work differently here. anything that happened before the first vote was completely useless; and calling the whole list of councellors ahead is different than INVESTIGATING the next in linewhich at best can happen twice.

[Cephrir]

i mean it's kind of mafia but please stop walling